Gift for a Fool
2010.. I am all ready for ya.
I am aware that I am fighting a pointless rearguard action however I have chosen to give up some time on Christmas day in the spirit of charity. It will not take much time to say this, and it may help the thread starter and others.
I have just seen this. I will tell you the truth. I may be the only one who will. I cannot do more.
If you wish to engage in gambling then you should expect to lose money. You are quite welcome to gamble for leisure on the ponies, at the bookies, on the National Lottery, or in the financial markets to the extent you are able to meet your obligations. If this is your objective then please
be honest with yourself about it.
However, I can see that you actually do wish to profit from these activities. You have no
legitimate expectation of profit. You state that you are new to this, and your other posts ask basic questions about which broker to use etc. You are a beginner. This is not an offensive comment, but a statement of fact. As a beginner you do not have the knowledge, skills, and experience to profit in what is ultimately a ruthlessly competitive business. None of us were born knowing, and we all had to begin at the beginning. There is nothing wrong with this. What is wrong is approaching the market with a flippant and disrespectful attitude, expecting to profit at the rate of 10% per week without any serious commitment, impatience, greed, etc. This is not the way a professional would conduct herself, and it alienates you from the very people who could help you.
I suggest that some humility is in order. I also suggest that frivolously gambling in the markets in the way you propose shows a lack of gratitude for your wealth. It is not my place to pass judgement on this, just some food for thought. It does not bode well that you look to others for answers to the basic questions rather than taking responsibility yourself. Equally you show signs of recklessness and impatience. Do not ignore the wisdom of those who have gone before you. This post is a caution to all beginners.
You are immediately at a disadvantage as you do not have the correct knowledge of how the market works. You have not developed the skill of accurately forecasting future prices in very fast, very liquid markets. You do not know when to enter and exit trades, how much risk to take, where to exit when you are wrong, etc. Additionally, you will be subject to emotional issues when risking your capital, even in small amounts. Without the correct foundation you will not have the ability to handle your emotions and behave correctly. In short you will not succeed if you choose this route. If you wish to succeed, the market demands more. Much more.
I will tell you a little more about this website, and other similar boards. Here there are around
150,000 members. Of this amount,
around five are truly expert traders. Three have been banned. One removed his posts when it was demonstrated that the membership were an unworthy rabble. An additional dozen or so have a high level of understanding of the markets. These members do not contribute for reasons which will become obvious when the content of this post is fully understood.
Of the remainder,
almost none have any true understanding of the markets. Almost none are consistently profitable. There are perhaps a few dozen members at most who actually make their living from trading. It is possible to make a consistent profit in a specialised niche without a complete understanding of the markets as a whole. It is possible to make consistent profit with a purely “mechanical” system in some conditions, but this is not the same as true market knowledge. People are generally gullible with low levels of awareness and unable to distinguish the truly successful from the imposters. There are many reasons for this, however that does not belong here and is obvious to one who puts her attention on the subject.
New members – aspiring traders – are not told any of this. Other members have been appointed as “forum guides” or “trading advisors” or “moderators”. None of these people are consistently successful, proficient, self employed full time traders. However, these titles have a suggestion of authority – and those who do not know better will believe that these forum titles qualify the holder to give advice. These titles are not awarded according to some measured, objective, criteria signifying competence in trading. Due to these factors it is almost impossible for the naive aspirant to distinguish between those with something of value to contribute and other beginners.
I will give you an example. At one time this board had a charity spreadbetting account. After much ado, the collective membership
lost half the account and the project was quietly shelved. None of the contributors were proficient enough to make correct profitable trades for charity. The few who could chose not to due to the way they had been treated in the past, or because they were banned, or both.
Beginners who recognise they are beginners are perfectly okay. Beginners who believe that they are advanced and in a position to dispense advice to other beginners are nothing short of dangerous. If you continue with this thread you will be inundated with fruitless suggestions to use indicators, change “timeframe”, vary your bet size, trade (or not trade) at different times of the day, subscribe to services, attend seminars, pay for mentoring, choose different (supposedly “easier”) markets, and other nonsenses.
Nearly everyone here has an agenda, an opinion, and an ego. There are the good natured people who genuinely wish to help (but may cause harm through well intentioned but incorrect advice), there are salesmen, there are arrogant small minded people with ego issues, there are those who intentionally disrupt, and there are the owners and staff who have an interest in all this continuing as is.
This website is not about “traders helping traders”. Instead it is a vehicle to enrich the owner, staff, and advertisers at the expense of the membership. The site makes its money from adverts. The adverts are placed by entities who provide “services” to members. With the exception of bona fide brokers who deal with clients on an execution only basis, all of these “services” involve
profiting at the expense of the members. The bucket shop brokers and spread betting bookies make money when members lose on their trades, and by offering worse prices than the real market. The vendors offer a service to people who will pay more than it is worth through ignorance. Paid mentoring is a scam as the mentors do not know, and the correct teaching is so valuable that it would not be sold by those who do know.
If all of this is done honestly I see no problem. The market involves the proficient being enriched at the expense of the derelict. I also have no entitlement to a soapbox here. The site owner is not required to publish my views. I am not making unfounded accusations or suggesting anything improper – simply explaining that there is an entire industry devoted to separating aspiring traders from their money, and that this site makes its revenue from advertising provided by such an industry. As a result the owner has no incentive to improve the quality of the membership here, only to increase the quantity of membership to generate more page impressions. This is business.
What is generally missing from the daily discourse here is a genuine desire to learn and improve, humility, respect, and manners. Instead we have greed, impatience, arrogance, rudeness and disrespect.
In the past, expert traders who wished to help others attempted to share the results of their years of experience, diligent work, and creative insights with the membership in order to help those who truly aspired. The collective conduct of the membership was disgustingly uncivil, and the website owner and his staff did not deal with this. As a result nothing of value is shared here. The members who behaved badly got exactly what they deserved.
There is no merit in herd behaviour. There is no virtue in seeking comfort in shared ignorance with others. If you are able to critically examine what this website is and is not, and assess for yourself the merits of engaging in discourse with the membership here, you will have learned something valuable indeed which will assist you in your journey to become a trader. These are the people who lose. To be successful you must learn why they lose and how to take their money. The market always needs cannon fodder. Understand yourself, and understand the sheep.
In trading, almost all of the time, the outcomes are decided in advance. Therefore the outcome of almost any trade can be known in advance almost all the time. The truly expert traders can predict where price will go next, repeatedly. Without this ability you are guessing and gambling. This ability takes years to develop. It cannot be learned by everyone.
Those who have earned this ability get it right nearly all the time. Days without losing trades. Months without down days. Specialisation in a chosen instrument and the ability to deal size when conditions are correct. These experts can recognise other experts, the proficient, and the amateurs by their conduct. I have never spoken with any of the five traders I mentioned earlier, but I know they are all true experts by what and how they post. Newbies cannot be expected to have this level of awareness, and are apt to be misdirected.
In summary:
- You do not know how to day trade successfully
- If you risk capital when you do not know you are gambling and will lose
- Your losses will go to the disciplined, ruthless, skilled, professional traders
- While the correct knowledge is a prerequisite, trading is a skill and the ability must be earned through personal effort – it cannot be transferred
- The correct knowledge can be discovered – this requires isolation and independent thought
- Those who know how to trade will not take you in hand and show you everything
- The masses who do not know how to trade will offer incorrect advice
- I will be attacked for this post by those who cannot trade
I only said it would be the truth, not that it would be pleasant. Please take the time to evaluate this and be honest with yourself. It may save you a very unpleasant journey, emotionally and financially. Do not seek excitement that you cannot ultimately afford. The good news is that the market is available to all who aspire – this provides the profits for the successful and the opportunity to succeed to all.
I sincerely hope that you all have beneficial realisations after reading this. Don’t be a fool. Don’t be a sucker. Merry Christmas.
