YM journal

This is a discussion on YM journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Nearly 5 years I suppose, 2 of them seriously It varies Up there with Hattori Hanzo steel? 4 Porterhouse Blues ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Mar 2, 2004, 11:15pm   #61
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread Nearly 5 years I suppose, 2 of them seriously

It varies

Up there with Hattori Hanzo steel? 4 Porterhouse Blues to 1 Riotous Assembly? Sorry, I don't know.

Yes immensely, I consider myself extremely lucky to be able to try/do this, fascinated by the market, probability, armchair economics and psychology etc., though often frustrated by my own stubborn stupidity and lack of patience. Also surprised quite how different day trading feels from swing or position trading, although many of the principles are the same.

Thank you and likewise.

Last edited by frugi; Mar 3, 2004 at 1:42pm.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 3, 2004, 12:42am   #62
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread Overnight long at 1148.50, stop 1145 for the record. I reckon the 10min channel height justifies the risk.

Edit: On reflection I should have used an overnight limit order to get a better entry right on the support line, a point or so lower. Must constantly remind myself to think of the risk first then the potential reward.
Attached Thumbnails
untitled.jpg  

Last edited by frugi; Mar 3, 2004 at 1:44pm.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 3, 2004, 10:48pm   #63
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread Well, given that I started the day $200 down thanks to my ill chosen overnight long, today wasn't a disaster. IB enjoyed plenty of commssion though . I moved the stop down 0.5pt to 1144.50 as well - foolish! - on the flimsy pretext that the hourly 50% retracement was at 1145.25 so it "needed some room to bounce". Hmm, yes, never mind that I was wrong already because ES had broken below a long term channel (the grey line that bisects the pink "3").

There was a brief morning flurry back into the channel but note that the long doji failed to closewithin it so the reversal was not confirmed. More of a gap filling formality before the down move could continue.

Ironically I entered long at 1144.50 a few minutes later on the close of the bar after AFTER the huge volume bar and the lower low on lesser volume bar.
An ABC looked complete after 5 smaller messy waves down (pink numbers). I have marked the C wave wrong, it should denote the 5 I've just mentioned.

Exited this at 1146.75 on the second test and failure to close above the 10 day EMA (marked 2 in green).

Scalped a short at the top.

Then made a mistake - thought the triangle had broken to the downside s shorted 1145.25 but it was just a normal pullback. Result: stopped 1147.25.

Good thing too cause the next move was a breakout up above the triangle top, then the 10 day EMA. to complete a lovely 1-2-3. So, two longs 1147.25 and 1147.75, closing too early as usual at 1148.75 (just below the channel bottom - I thought there wd be res here -nope!) and 1151.25 (within .75pt of the triangle target).

Then a load of scalps in that slow dull chop. Too cautious taking those quaters though, should have looked for safer halves.

Penultimately broke another little rule - don't trade after 8.30pm - and shorted the false break from the consolidation at 1149.25, stopped at 1151.

Finally another quarter scalp at the close. Result even minus commission.

Glad to have grabbed a chunk of the breakout, irritated by my impatience.
Attached Thumbnails
clipboard.gif  
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 3, 2004, 10:49pm   #64
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread The P&L, or not as the case may be

As usual my Mac jpg will fail to transfer properly.
Attached Thumbnails
untitled.jpg  
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 4, 2004, 10:30pm   #65
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread Frightfully exciting day what. A few pathetic scalps was all I could manage as it crawled disconsolately up the 10min trendline (& 25 EMA) drawn from yesterday's low. Upper pivot R1 was true to its name and resisted any further advances. One Tick divergence shown but I failed to milk it sufficiently.

Room for a 5th wave up on the 30min to 1057.50 or so, but I guess all depends on payrolls, Intel and unemployment. I reckon tomorrow will be explosive one way or t'other and since we closed high those NDX Fib timing studies I posted on "Trading ES 1st qtr 2004" point towards a down day tomorrow. I don't normally pay much heed to Fib timing (there's always one top/bottom you can find which projects to another top/bottom with a bit of hindsight curve-fitting) but 4 in one hour is quite a strong signal. However today was too sideways for proper confirmation.

The volume pattern on the 30 min is interesting - recently it has been shrinking on the up trends and increasing on the down, suggesting an exhaustion of bulls.



Click the image to open in full size.

Last edited by frugi; Mar 4, 2004 at 10:40pm.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 4, 2004, 10:34pm   #66
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread What a large profit, not.

Click the image to open in full size.

Hope u feel chipper soon Skim.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 5, 2004, 10:24pm   #67
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Read it and weep

frugi started this thread Cha'mone muddy funster!

Made the grand total of $22.30 after commission on one of the best trading days of the year. D'oh. That's not the whole story though. After a good start shorting the news I failed to realise how savage the snapback rally would be and ended up down over $1k at one point, thanks to too wide stops and even averaging up into it, but fortunately I had enough trust in the inv H&S target, 5 wave up and ludicrous volume blow off to short heavily at the top and recover my losses. Awful trading saved by clearer, more rational decisions or sheer luck? Probably a bit of both, but either way I'm relieved.

And of course I should have held those shorts much longer instead of exiting like a scaredy cat around the upper pivot. But given the strength and breakout above previous highs I was pretty keen to cover where I could as there was a good chance it might have rested at the upper pivot and then gone up to 1170. That would have really hurt. Risk before reward (bit rich coming from me given my start to the day, but u know what I mean!).

After the rollercoaster subsided lots of scalps around 1159. A long boring triangle that broke to the downside after a doji on the 10min and repeated failed attempts to get back into breakout territory, but there was no follow through. Not really surprising after the morning's action I suppose.

Learnt a good deal today and for that I am grateful. More surprisingly, a full time week of day trading has actually increased my account and for that I am very grateful. Confidence is growing, just gotta remember that despite my increasing consistency and care I am still more than capable of idiocy in a fast, unexpected market!

Have a glorious weekend everyone.

Click the image to open in full size.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 8, 2004, 10:53pm   #68
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread Nice work Finirama!

I thought that was the bottom around 1149 what wiv all those RSI PDs, vol div and Tick PD. There was a lovely reaction off the 10 day EMA magnet/springboard again - I should have trusted it to 1. remain resistant given the break below a major hourly trendline and 2. eventually lead to a significant move (down in this case!).

Third fan line on the daily now gone, next sup 1135. Lots of fresh air below. The Fed will have to buy a few futures tomorrow to prevent a dose of carnage I reckon.

They usually do, so I'm gonna hold an overnight long from here in case 1143.5 (3/3 low) holds for 5 pts or so (possible target breakout down test around 1148) though for peace of mind I happen to be hedged short thru me hourly system with SB.

P&L really ludicrously embarrassing today - it would be derogatory to schoolboys to call them schoolboy errors in fact:

After a sensible start of 3.75pts short (closed at 1152) I

1. Went long on a HH above the 10 day EMA at 1151 without waiting for the bar to close
2. Failed to put an automated stop under my long and, just to cap it off,
3. Checked the progress of our supper for a minute too long at the crucial moment so lost 3 pts more than necessary on the late day selloff.

It's fine having no stop as long as you are in front of the computer with a ready market order. Otherwise, Frugi you are an idiot!
Attached Thumbnails
clipboard.gif  

Last edited by frugi; Mar 8, 2004 at 10:58pm.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 8, 2004, 10:54pm   #69
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread The daily...
Attached Thumbnails
clipboard1.gif  
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 8, 2004, 10:55pm   #70
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
frugi started this thread And the shame...

Click the image to open in full size.

Last edited by frugi; Mar 8, 2004 at 11:05pm.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 12, 2004, 10:10pm   #71
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Dandelions for hungry bunnies on me

frugi started this thread Phew - I needed this, big time. What a relief after a frustrating week! Of course I'm concealing the $5k loss I suffered yesterday No, seriously, I lost about $1.5k on Wednesday through sheer lack of control, attempts to grab the proverbial plummetting Global etc. so please don't be remotely impressed. I was so shocked I didn't trade at all yesterday and stumped around the house cursing my failings. But at least I'm fully aware when I'm being an idiot, which is an improvement on months hence. The hard part is stopping being so, much like shuffling off a pointless nicotine addiction: logically, extremely easy but in practice rather more difficult.

Apparently the INTP personality, with which I am dubiously blessed, is good at taking different perspectives, looking down at oneself from other people's viewpoint etc. which must help when trading rules are being shattered asunder.

No great skill required today, merely a general longing when it thought about filling the gap and bounced with a nice V instead, then some scalps off the top, with the albeit messy five wave up under consideration at all times. Had a target of 1120 for ES so wasn't miles out.

Sorry no chart today - tis Friday and I have Thai on the way, mmmm.
Attached Thumbnails
untitled.jpg  

Last edited by frugi; Mar 13, 2004 at 5:51pm.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 13, 2004, 5:35pm   #72
BBB
 
BBB's Avatar
Joined Dec 2003
Quote:
I was so shocked I didn't trade at all yesterday and stumped around the house cursing my failings. But at least I'm fully aware when I'm being an idiot, which is an improvement on months hence.

Sounds like someone needs a copy of The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas!

(One of the very few books on trading that are worth anything imo)

Try to change your outlook - are you an ANALYST throwing money at your views/opinion as most people are, or are you a TRADER who has no opinion, but simply reacts to what unfolds. There is a huge difference, yet a subtle one. If there is any holy grail to trading, that could well be it.

Keep at it.
BBB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 13, 2004, 6:57pm   #73
 
2 Posts
Joined Mar 2004
Thanks frugi for sharing all of this, you have great courage. I have been in a chat room for a while now that trades the ES E-mini, the moderator is great no hype, helps me reinforce my discipline, on Paltalk called thetradingzone.com and it's free.
markj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 13, 2004, 7:28pm   #74
The Staff are paid members that perform various roles such as editorial, advertising, support or technical work.
 
Trader333's Avatar
Joined Jan 2003
I agree with BBB and I am just re-reading The Disciplined Trader
again which I have had for over 4 years now. It is a bit heavy
going at points but still a great book to help address the
psychological issues that we all face in trading.


Paul
Trader333 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 15, 2004, 10:20pm   #75
 
frugi's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
Today I bought a Dow saw and it whipped me

frugi started this thread The world and his Clanger could see the (at least) double bottom support at 1104 so it was only fair that the big boys took out the stops below at a slightly unexpected (for me anyway) moment. The fact that we didn't follow thru to the upside at all when so many factors suggested we should have may have been a clue, but I didn't foresee it beyond a general feeling of "If the market doesn't do what you expect it's going t'other way" - When? ... was another matter. This uneasy feeling may help explain my scrappy, grab what u can trading today. Either that or the fortified Aussie Shiraz (yup it exists) unwisely imbibed last night.

Perhaps we now go down to 1095 or bounce on the open tomorrow now that a sufficient number of longs have been removed. As BGold says options expiration on Fri should take us to the point where the max number expire worthless at week end - how about 1135ish?

Anyway I'm supposed to be a trader not an analyst so my opinion is irrelevant. (An excellent point from BBB that I would do well to imprint on my forehead).

Made some impatient trades today as usual - too early in long on the Dow at 61.8% retracement, for instance - but managed to scrape a profit thanks to a cleaner bag of ES.

Pleasing 5 waves down on Dow and ES marked the bottom for most of the day, though the expected ABC retracement up failed on the C wave with a double top and Tick div. The 25EMA 10min (50EMA on 5 min) also helped contain the bulls.

Have I anything useful to say though? Err, no, but we try!

Concentrating purely on the trades not the money is helping - e.g I am more satisfied with my trades today than the ones I made on Friday, despite banking nearly 10x more on the latter. In rational terms I simply mean my entries and exits were more careful, but the overwhelming distinction as far as I'm concerned is that my heart didn't flutter once today; cold and emotionless, it let the brain trade unfettered. Whereas on Friday my pulse rate practically deserved a whole new VIX dedicated to its absurd gyrations = overstaking = not good. Risk is the key, reward a secondary consequence of controlling it effectively and consistently. In fact the less I look at the P&L the better. Take each trade on its own merit and do not worry about the past. That way perhaps I avoid the common error of excessive fear/greed after a miserable/magnificent run. I am also beginning to feel certain that position sizing makes all the difference as far as consistent profitability is concerned.

Many are apt to criticise systems because they claim the market is under constant flux and nothing can work consistently under all conditions; other wise the big boys would all have a whizzy computer program that would rake in millions for their fine institution for virtually no effort (apart from a fat wedge thrown at their R&D department, no doubt courtesy of whichever private clients they have fleeced the most heinously). Surely the point is that as systems generally make less money than skilled discretionary trading the institutions simply hire the very best discretionary humans they can, as they have the money and the desirability as employers to do this? This in no way negates the efficacy of a good system, it merely acknowledges that one can do better if skilled enough.

I don't believe the basic traits of human psychology change much over time so I see no reason why a well balanced carefully tested system cannot take advantage of this, especially if it is one which uses, at the longest, hourly bars (that way 5 years' testing amounts to a lot of data and a lot of so-called changing daily conditions). The main problem, I think, is the system user, who likes to ignore signals, alter signals, improve on signals etc. at a whim, thus destroyingany positve expectancy the system may have enjoyed.

But I'm prejudiced as I run an hourly system!

Ramble over...over to u BBB! PS Thanks to u and T333 for the M Douglas tip - it's on my Amazon wish list now..

Click the image to open in full size.


Click the image to open in full size.

Last edited by frugi; Mar 15, 2004 at 11:06pm.
frugi is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Trading the YM with Time and Sales lurkerlurker Indices 4 May 31, 2007 10:16am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)