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This is a discussion on YM journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Frugi, A little clarification with how I compare my trading results to my trading system. I have clear rules in ...

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Old Jan 23, 2004, 5:32pm   #25
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A little clarification with how I compare my trading results to my trading system. I have clear rules in the systems that I trade (6 in total over 3 instruments) which dictate when I should enter and when I should exit trades depending on what the individual markets are doing each day. This is purely mechanical and I have an Excel spreadsheet set up which can examine 1 min OHLC data for the day and list out the trades that should have been taken. The is the same spreadsheet that I have used for backtesting the systems. That's the system part. The trading part is actually executing those trading strategies in realtime. Making sure that I am calculating the correct levels for entries and stops throughout the day and making sure that those orders get executed at the prices I want.

Of course I do sometimes make mistakes - a couple of weeks ago I miscalculated a stop level and wound up $600 down on my system results. I still made just over $1,000 that day but I wasn't happy - my trading had not been up to scratch. It's no good making $1,000 on a day you should be making $1,600!

I Spend every day looking for ways to improve the trading systems and then concentrate on executing that plan exactly.

We do have different trading styles though. I cannot trade with discretion, I need to know that what I am doing works. The only way that I can know that is by formulating rules and backtesting those rules. Backtesting discretionary trading styles is impossible because you know what happens next no matter how much you try not to - it's too easy to ignore the losing set-ups.

I actually think that you can formulate rules for 'discretionary' trading. You must be looking for a particular pattern or set-up or divergence or what ever to occur before entering a trade - well it's all just numbers so formularise(!) it. If your just looking at the chart thinking, hmmm I think it might go up here so I'll buy it, then forget trading - you have no edge, you will lose. That's the random trades that you talk about as opposed to the 'good' trades that you take. Study the good ones and find out exactly why you entered them - if there is a pattern then there is your formula for the basis of your plan.
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Old Jan 23, 2004, 5:55pm   #26
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One thing I noticed, and this is obviously easy with hindsight is that with your second trade you bought at 40.25. At one point you sold at 47.25. If you had traded just these two times, you would be better off by $350 + $86.40 (saved in commissions) = $436.6 - costs. why not look to see how you could have traded here?
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Old Jan 24, 2004, 2:07am   #27
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frugi started this thread Today: $125 - ($10*4.80) = $77
Day 3 running total: -$112.20

Only made two bad trades out of ten today which is an improvement.

From the bottom:

1+2 Bought the open for a quick half
3+4 Waited for opening gap to fill. Time zone was right for reversal and pivot offered support. Long for 2 points.
5+6 Shorted DT (and high from yesterday) for a quick half. Should have held this but thought R1 might have done an RS switch.
7+8 Scalp off bottom of rectangle for another half
9+10 Tried the same but was stopped out on a spook out dip. Stop too tight.
11+12 Same again, but bagged three quarters this time
13+14 Bad trade. Tried to long after consol break when it hit a well established trendline (light blue line on 10m) but should have waited as the consolidation target was a couple of points lower. Lost a point for my impatience.
15+16 Lost another point bottom fishing around S1. The price seemed to stabilise after three 10m bars but I ignored the fact that a wave 5 down was more likely than a bottom.
17+18 Once the consolidation around S1 was clearer I scalped a half off the bottom
19+20 Bought the first bounce off the pink trendline. Guests were due so I had to close for a quarter and pack away all me pencils at this point.

+2.5pts not too dreadful, though it should have been 4.

Or 9 if I had simply held short from 1148 and moved my stop down sensibly with each consolidation break. I must learn to love trends and not fight them tooth and claw every time - it's much harder work and considerably more risky.
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Old Jan 24, 2004, 3:15pm   #28
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frugi started this thread Having some grief from my .gifs - will try and sort this out.
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Old Jan 24, 2004, 3:45pm   #29
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Frugi, keep up the good work, as a new trader, I'm just starting off on the IB simulator , both your comments and others is very welcome, thanks and good luck
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Old Jan 26, 2004, 3:15pm   #30
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Joined Jan 2004
Hi how can I find information on the Swiss market index?

George Khanijau
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Old Jan 26, 2004, 9:56pm   #31
Joined Jan 2003
the Swiss index is the SMI- IB have the code as SMI-

It is fairly thin on volume- each point is worth 10SF ( about 4.50gbp)-

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Old Jan 28, 2004, 12:19am   #32
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frugi started this thread Hmm, couple of exciting days for me, though not for the right reasons. Got a nasty cold so just my crude notes tonight I'm afraid. At 9pm last night I was staring a nasty loss in the face. Here's how I did it Oh dear...

1 L 1140.25 bounce off 125 EMA after 3.00 reversal
2 S 1140.50 trailing stop hit on pb
3 L 1140.50 bounce off 1140 sup
4 S 1140.75 bearish failure to test R on 3rd push up.
5 L 1142.50 breakout pullback
6 S 1141.50 stopped out
7 S 1141.75 consol top SR switch
8 L 1140.50 covered near bot of consol
9 L 1140.25 bot of consol bounce, Tick pd
10 S 1141.25 top of consol downsloping
11 S 1143.50 triple top res, Tick nd
12 L 1143.25 covered, growing bull vol
13 S 1142.75 trendline & support brk
14 L 1143.50 stopped out. false brk.
15 S 1143.50 triple top, tick nd persistent
16 L stopped out 1145...eek, breakout!
17 S 1145 Naz double top, scalp attempt
18 L 1145.50 stopped out, Naz exceeded DT
All quite reasonable for a man with a cold.

19 S 1146.25 I accidentally hit Tranmit. It happens. But did I cancel immediately like a good Frugi? No! And I'm still trying to work out why. I never usually have a problem taking losses, but this one I just ignored. Very odd. It cost me $275 in the end, which was richly deserved.

20 S 1148 R1 & consol trgt hit
21 S 1149 triple top, bot of established trendline. Tick & rsi nd
22,23,24 stopped out S3 1151.75 STOP SHD HAVE BEEN A POINT LOWER this was well into the fresh air above the breakout level. And of couse I should have been only 2 short (idiotic trade 19 made it 3)
25,26,27,28 S4 1152 vol spike top??? Naz hitting big resistance. DODGY SIZE but reasonable given ludicrous extension above 125 EMA (2m) and what I call the "too good to be true bullish setup". A trap is in the offing.
29 S 1154.25 to oncrease chance of $ recovery tomorrow without incurring much risk. 1150 will be best cover price to break even - pullback to just above BO level and 38% rtr.

Held overnight S5. Stop GTC L5 1157 lmt GTC L5 1149.75 (bracketed) ... ES is miles above 125 EMA and I expect a pullback to BO level.

comm 29 * 2.80 = $81.20
Total loss: -$1168.70

All day neg div across indices then at 6.30 they start falling in line. (Naz catches Dow up, all then start rising in sync) = beware start of trend!! I of course ignored these signs and tried to fight it in usual scalp style.
I should have trusted consol target to run us up and exited all shorts at 1150 breakout. Was scared of buying high today, and it cost me.

5 lots obviously too much to hold overnight but stop was only a couple of pts above day's high. The odds of a pullback seemed much greater to me than the odds of another ramp up. Easy to say now, but intuition screamed hold it, sleep fitfully tonight and recover thy $1000. Or lose another $500. A gamble? I'm still not sure...so

1,2,3,4,5 covered L5 1149.75 pullback to yesterday breakout level and 125 EMA 2 min. I knew it would
6 L 1150.25 back above 125 EMA and bo level with hh/ll. Tick pd.
7 S 1147 stopped out, no enthusiam for rally
8 S 1147.75 top of bear flag & res at 38% Fib. Downtrend in operation. but q oversold so wary of holding shorts. So dis be a scalp. But expecting 5th ewave down with pd.
9 L 1147.25 covered bot of bear flag.
10 L 1147.25 adam and eve bottom? naz hh/hl dow hl tick pd 10m rsi bullish POOR TRADE. Failed to notice bearish failure to meet resistance/ break of down trendline. Expected 5th wave down and still wnet long? Why?
11 stopped out 1145.25 consol failure deservedly so
12 L 1145 50% rtr. another sell climax. Naz not confirmed ES lower low.
It has now.
13 L 1143 62% rtr and S1. Bot of downtrend channel. 5th wave down completion? Doji confirms end of downmove, nice. Oh & vol div & tick pd
14 S 1145 nearing top of channel and 50% rtr could be res
Ah the NQ chart looks much clearer...
15 L NQ 1524 inv H&S
16 S NQ 1529.50 neckline/top of consol.
17 S ES 1145.50 trailing stop hit
18 L NQ 1523.5 triple bottom in range. (h&s negated)
19 S NQ 1525 trailing stop hit
20 L NQ 1524.50 same as b4
21 S NQ 1526 last high (last cycle failed to test resistance)
22 L NQ 1523.50
23 S NQ 1522 stopped out consol failure
24 L NQ 1522 bounce off 23/1 low 1521.5.
25 S NQ 1524 bot of consol (s/r switch likely). Yup.

Almost reasonable trading today I reckon, though once again pretty much ignored the trend.

Gain $1192.50-comm 25 * 2.80 = $70 = $1122.50
Overall lost -$46.20 over last 2 days. I'll consider myself lucky.

Day 5 running total -$158.40 cripes this is hard work innit
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Last edited by frugi; Jan 28, 2004 at 1:12am.
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