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This is a discussion on YM journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; the Swiss index is the SMI- IB have the code as SMI- It is fairly thin on volume- each point ...

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Old Jan 26, 2004, 9:56pm   #31
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the Swiss index is the SMI- IB have the code as SMI-

It is fairly thin on volume- each point is worth 10SF ( about 4.50gbp)-

Al
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Old Jan 28, 2004, 12:19am   #32
 
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frugi started this thread Hmm, couple of exciting days for me, though not for the right reasons. Got a nasty cold so just my crude notes tonight I'm afraid. At 9pm last night I was staring a nasty loss in the face. Here's how I did it Oh dear...



26/1
1 L 1140.25 bounce off 125 EMA after 3.00 reversal
2 S 1140.50 trailing stop hit on pb
3 L 1140.50 bounce off 1140 sup
4 S 1140.75 bearish failure to test R on 3rd push up.
5 L 1142.50 breakout pullback
6 S 1141.50 stopped out
7 S 1141.75 consol top SR switch
8 L 1140.50 covered near bot of consol
9 L 1140.25 bot of consol bounce, Tick pd
10 S 1141.25 top of consol downsloping
11 S 1143.50 triple top res, Tick nd
12 L 1143.25 covered, growing bull vol
13 S 1142.75 trendline & support brk
14 L 1143.50 stopped out. false brk.
15 S 1143.50 triple top, tick nd persistent
16 L stopped out 1145...eek, breakout!
17 S 1145 Naz double top, scalp attempt
18 L 1145.50 stopped out, Naz exceeded DT
All quite reasonable for a man with a cold.

Then
19 S 1146.25 I accidentally hit Tranmit. It happens. But did I cancel immediately like a good Frugi? No! And I'm still trying to work out why. I never usually have a problem taking losses, but this one I just ignored. Very odd. It cost me $275 in the end, which was richly deserved.

20 S 1148 R1 & consol trgt hit
21 S 1149 triple top, bot of established trendline. Tick & rsi nd
22,23,24 stopped out S3 1151.75 STOP SHD HAVE BEEN A POINT LOWER this was well into the fresh air above the breakout level. And of couse I should have been only 2 short (idiotic trade 19 made it 3)
25,26,27,28 S4 1152 vol spike top??? Naz hitting big resistance. DODGY SIZE but reasonable given ludicrous extension above 125 EMA (2m) and what I call the "too good to be true bullish setup". A trap is in the offing.
29 S 1154.25 to oncrease chance of $ recovery tomorrow without incurring much risk. 1150 will be best cover price to break even - pullback to just above BO level and 38% rtr.

Held overnight S5. Stop GTC L5 1157 lmt GTC L5 1149.75 (bracketed) ... ES is miles above 125 EMA and I expect a pullback to BO level.

comm 29 * 2.80 = $81.20
Total loss: -$1168.70

All day neg div across indices then at 6.30 they start falling in line. (Naz catches Dow up, all then start rising in sync) = beware start of trend!! I of course ignored these signs and tried to fight it in usual scalp style.
I should have trusted consol target to run us up and exited all shorts at 1150 breakout. Was scared of buying high today, and it cost me.

5 lots obviously too much to hold overnight but stop was only a couple of pts above day's high. The odds of a pullback seemed much greater to me than the odds of another ramp up. Easy to say now, but intuition screamed hold it, sleep fitfully tonight and recover thy $1000. Or lose another $500. A gamble? I'm still not sure...so

27/1
1,2,3,4,5 covered L5 1149.75 pullback to yesterday breakout level and 125 EMA 2 min. I knew it would
6 L 1150.25 back above 125 EMA and bo level with hh/ll. Tick pd.
7 S 1147 stopped out, no enthusiam for rally
8 S 1147.75 top of bear flag & res at 38% Fib. Downtrend in operation. but q oversold so wary of holding shorts. So dis be a scalp. But expecting 5th ewave down with pd.
9 L 1147.25 covered bot of bear flag.
10 L 1147.25 adam and eve bottom? naz hh/hl dow hl tick pd 10m rsi bullish POOR TRADE. Failed to notice bearish failure to meet resistance/ break of down trendline. Expected 5th wave down and still wnet long? Why?
11 stopped out 1145.25 consol failure deservedly so
12 L 1145 50% rtr. another sell climax. Naz not confirmed ES lower low.
It has now.
13 L 1143 62% rtr and S1. Bot of downtrend channel. 5th wave down completion? Doji confirms end of downmove, nice. Oh & vol div & tick pd
14 S 1145 nearing top of channel and 50% rtr could be res
Ah the NQ chart looks much clearer...
15 L NQ 1524 inv H&S
16 S NQ 1529.50 neckline/top of consol.
17 S ES 1145.50 trailing stop hit
18 L NQ 1523.5 triple bottom in range. (h&s negated)
19 S NQ 1525 trailing stop hit
20 L NQ 1524.50 same as b4
21 S NQ 1526 last high (last cycle failed to test resistance)
22 L NQ 1523.50
23 S NQ 1522 stopped out consol failure
24 L NQ 1522 bounce off 23/1 low 1521.5.
25 S NQ 1524 bot of consol (s/r switch likely). Yup.

Almost reasonable trading today I reckon, though once again pretty much ignored the trend.

Gain $1192.50-comm 25 * 2.80 = $70 = $1122.50
Overall lost -$46.20 over last 2 days. I'll consider myself lucky.

Day 5 running total -$158.40 cripes this is hard work innit
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Last edited by frugi; Jan 28, 2004 at 1:12am.
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Old Jan 28, 2004, 12:21am   #33
 
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frugi started this thread Wretched .gifs!
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Old Jan 28, 2004, 12:22am   #34
 
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frugi started this thread Happier p&l...

I'll try and sort these gifs out so u can see the trade times. Meanwhile if anyone mentions my $400 daily limit I'll...I'll.....be grateful for the reminder
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Last edited by frugi; Jan 28, 2004 at 1:11am.
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Old Jan 28, 2004, 9:21pm   #35
 
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Frugi

Do you believe you can make a living at this or is it just a hobby?

It seems to me thus far your system is liable to lose you more than you gain, and wonder whether you have fully thought out a plan to go along with your system.

Good fortune for the future

Roger
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Thanks! The following members like this post: jezza888
Old Jan 29, 2004, 12:02am   #36
 
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frugi started this thread Roger,

Indeed you are right to question my trading. Monday and Tuesday were a mite more than mildly off mark, and now the dust and adrenaline have settled, my bank account and I have resolved to step out of the intraday arena, at least for a while, so I can concentrate on absorbing more knowledge and subduing my treacherous emotions, which appear to be laying many banana skins in the way of what I believe to be an otherwise reasonable discretionary system. Could I make that sentence any longer?

I'll continue to swing trade (ES, perhaps NQ) with one or two much more mechanical systems (rigid enough to check even my vigorous emotions) which have served me quite well (though I might post P&L for these trades as well if nobody objects - I know that may appear slightly weird but it helps!). This slowing of pace will give me time to study the intraday dynamics from a much-needed disinterested perspective, and of course study myself, that little bit harder.

The crude attempts at ES analysis that form my homework will appear here sporadically as before. The last few weeks have taught me a lot, but there's work to be done yet.

To answer your first question, I am unsure whether I can make a living from daytrading ES. If I'm not cut out for it, fair enough - swing trading for a few years has squeezed out a modest existence and I'm happy to revert to it. I certainly find it more relaxing! I was keen to move to intraday ES to make a better return on my capital and have the satisfaction of a 'daily wage' and no overnight risk, but I don't think I'm ready for the leap just yet. Quite a relief in some ways, actually...

Last edited by frugi; Jan 29, 2004 at 12:17am.
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Old Jan 30, 2004, 11:45pm   #37
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hey man - it seems to me that you are OVERTRADING - chill out a bit - step back from your screen for sec - pick a just few spots a day instead where you think you have an edge - otherwise, reading your trade log is like watching an old woman at a slot machine in Las Vegas - sorry i don't mean to be rude at all - just a suggestion for you - good luck
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Old Jan 31, 2004, 12:08am   #38
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Eureka is coming from the right place. I still think tour costs of business (commissions) are too high given your returns.

Dont bother with the mechanical systems. Discretionary traders always make more if they have discipline. Learn about price and how it behaves and why. This will take longer than you would like but you will be more profitable in 2 years time.

Look at RossRed recent post for an example of this.
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Old Feb 2, 2004, 5:10pm   #39
 
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Hi Frugi,

I’m truly impressed by the effort you are putting into this, and wish you well, but as Eureka says your trades are beginning to resemble that of a roulette player. Remember the winning roulette system Larry came up with, you could make more by using that I bet. I’m being serious there!

You are right to pause and ask whether all the effort and time you are putting into this is a very efficient way to make a living. Just wishing it will come right is not sufficient. I recently came across another of your posts on a T2W board where you said you were seeking a re-mortgage to raise £20K cash, was that to cover “losses”?

I don’t know whether you went ahead with it but if it was a matter of borrowing to play the market then that doesn’t sound like a smart move to me matey. In the past you may not have thought a lot of the system I adopt but at least I have never had to borrow any money to pursue it.

Perhaps you should consider revising the end quotation on your posts to read:-

“Wishing does not make a poor man rich.”

Chris
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Old Feb 2, 2004, 5:45pm   #40
 
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Frugi

What Charting Programme and feed set-up are you using?
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Old Feb 2, 2004, 6:06pm   #41
 
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frugi started this thread FYB,

I'm using Sierra Charts with MyTrack feed, though am currently investigating Linnsoft's Investor/RT as it has backtesting facilities.
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Old Feb 2, 2004, 11:24pm   #42
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Quote:
Originally posted by frugi
To answer your first question, I am unsure whether I can make a living from daytrading ES. If I'm not cut out for it, fair enough - swing trading for a few years has squeezed out a modest existence and I'm happy to revert to it. I certainly find it more relaxing! I was keen to move to intraday ES to make a better return on my capital
Stupid question perhaps, but why not increase the size on your swing trades, risk permitting of course...?
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Old Feb 3, 2004, 1:15pm   #43
 
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Loada Dosh,

I am glad that frugi did not deign to reply to your contemptuous message. You sound like you are a bitter person and it would be better if you did not pollute the boards with your nasty comments.
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Old Feb 3, 2004, 6:16pm   #44
 
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frugi started this thread Simon,

"Risk permitting" is of course the crux, as you pointed out. My swing trades need wider stops (hence fewer lots on the line) and more time to come good (or stop out), which is why I suspected (perhaps wrongly, now I've thought about it) that it should be possible to extract a greater return on capital from intraday trading as the money is working harder and capturing more of the fluctuations. However I imagine there are a number of swing traders who make a living commensurate with an intraday trader?

Ivor,

Did LD squeak again? The Ignore button must be working

BBB,

I would consider it an honour and a substantial career achievement to be a competent discretionary trader in the future and I believe you are right that the returns should be greater than those available to the mechanical trader as opportunities can be spotted earlier. I shall certainly be watching price action like the proverbial orc and trying to learn more about how/why moves and behaviours occur, but I am clearly not ready to commit any more capital to the endeavour at the moment. I hope, no I know (woah - self belief or arrogance - time will tell!) the requisite skill will come with diligence, practice and commitment. Meanwhile I am glad to have the pressure taken off by a mechanical system or two, even if they do generate a little too much heat for a slightly pitiful amount of light!

---

Enjoying my first taste of programming (well, apart from assembly language on the BBC Micro in my geeky youth - remember those beige beauties?) in Investor/RT as I'm keen to backtest a few ideas. Thanks to madasafish amd china for putting me onto it - it's a super slice of software, although I won't be using it for real time just yet as I believe some have suffered some slow/spurious data delivery problems.

I'm not the first to discover that MyTrack will only let me download 30 days of intraday data, which is a right old bore, but I am looking into buying more from another data provider as that seems to be the only alternative.

http://www.tickdata.com
http://www.price-data.com/one_quick_...ry_special.cfm
http://www.price-data.com/int_futures.cfm

are all quite expensive so

http://disktrading.is99.com/disktrading/#data1

may be the one to go for but I don't particularly want to wait weeks for a CD to arrive - shame they don't do online downloads. Also need to be sure that Investor/RT can import the ASCII data before I shell out on it.

Back on topic soon!

Edit: I lie, DiskTrading do provide online downloads of their most popular formats but if you want a custom set of data u have to order a CD.

Last edited by frugi; Feb 5, 2004 at 12:43am.
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Old Feb 5, 2004, 7:13am   #45
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Frugi,

If you think your bias is towards discretionary trading, then you should stop trading mechanical systems if your hearts not in it. Take some time out just to observe how the prices move. How does the asset behave when its price approaches a previous congestion area? Did volume give any clues (especially large volume on short bars - reversal).

It will be more profitable in the long term.
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