Top Gun Trading In The Zone

VIX Count is now # 8 and falling

VIX- about 15% under the SMA 10 but the count could go further after a correction.

The US Equity markets will pull back for the next two days before the rally continues upward.Bearish 30min Pin Bar on the ESH9. Will gap down on Monday.

The 30yr bond will retrace 50% of the latest drop next week.

hello silversea id like o introduce my self, my name is eddie im 21 i live the west palm beach and i was looking through the sight and went over to the locator which find traders near your area and i found you and well i have never traded anything other then cards as a kid but over the last year or so all i have been doing is reading and reading and some more reading about trading specifically the ever so "dangerous" day trading. i dont have much money i work at a restaurant from 5pm to about 1am and in the day time all i do is research but i have yet to trade anything or even begin an account with a brokerage firm, but i do aspire to start trading soon even if i must loose money, i tell my dad you can read about swimming and different techniques but you wont really know the feeling into you jump in,and the second you jump in you panic and you forget everything you thought you knew, and i just want to get my feet wet you know with the market so im saving up money to give this a try or many tries whatever it takes to learn ,i dont mind loosing money for the sake of learning what not to do and making mistakes and so on.. i dont look to become rich ok well heck yeah who doesnt, but what i mean is 100 bucks a day would be awsome thats almost what i make busting my butt at a restaurant and taking crap from people, so making the same amount from home doesnt sound like such a bad idea.... well to not beat around the bush so much i was just wondering if you could perhaps through messages here on the site help me out a bit with questions i might have on occasion, i also will not try to engulf you with question after question as i know you have better things to do , i usually do my own research to figure out the answer to what ever i need but sometimes alot of online sources assume knowledge that perhaps i dont have or just dont answer my specific question and of course talking with a real person who can really address the answer to me is much better,
anyways sorry for the half testament i just commented you but i would really appreciate a response weather at least so that i know you have received this message. thank you

Eddie,
The only way I could help you improve your trading is if I know more about your personality and risk tolerance or how well do you take losses emotionally. At this time I recommend that you keep reading about trading in the market that you will actually trade not in general but a specific market.Also I recommend that after doing that you practice your entries, exits and stop placement on a Demo account for at least one year and write down notes on your progress. If you are willing to do that then you will see some progress, slowly but surely.And to answer you question, yes it is possible to make a decent living trading some markets but it does require a considerable amount of effort and time.The question is , are you willing to put the time and effort that it requires?

The S&P500 pulls back down as expected

January 9th
The day ended with a daily volume of 3,221 million shares on the S&P 500. This volume was 27% less than the daily volume average of the past 3 months.

Today's job report shows that 524,000 jobs were lost in December. This figure is just below the 525,000 expected by economists and adds to an already staggering 2.6 million jobs that were lost in 2008. Unemployment is at 7.2 percent in December and by some accounts will reach 10 percent by end of 2009. These figures may even be higher if you count those who are frustrated and are not continuing to look for work. The loss of jobs is wide spread from blue to white collar.

Russian and Ukrainian officials continue to bicker over the resumption of Russian gas supplies. Some of the issues that Russian officials are pushing are increased monitoring of supplies and market prices for Ukraine. The Ukrainian President denies that his country is stealing gas while his country is rejecting the Russian offer of $450 per 1,000 cubic meters. Last year Ukraine paid $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters.

The small trend the lower should probably moderate over the next few sessions, but it may not end quite yet. The reason for that is that very little in terms of Bearish volume has been formed. Look for the index to be below today's range at some point on Monday's session but it would not be surprising if the close will be above it slightly. The environment of mixed trading will still be with us until larger volume comes into the markets.

The key support at 885.00 is also the 200 MA ( 60min.)
it will probably be penetrated on Wednesday with the Retail Sales reaction.If 857.00 is tested again, then it will go down after a bounce to new lows below 741.00 on the Weekly.
8:56pm est- There is a Bullish Divergence on the 60min MACD which means the ES will close the gap to at least Previous Close 885.50.

Trading With Poise, Power and Confidence

When you're trading and you find yourself in a state of self-assurance and composure, you'll realize that you are in a place of strength and confidence. When you are in this place, you are in a zone and truly at one with yourself.In this zone is the calm where strength lies - not unlike the eye of a storm. Being in the zone is a powerful place to be because you are in control, unable to be distracted. After all your study, research, training and practicing, your trading skills, techniques and habits are flowing naturally, effortlessly.
Poise is an attribute that few traders posses but is an attribute necessary for the development os a successful trader.You can acquire all the knowledge and skills you need to trade with, but if you never find the zone, is you never experience the palce of quite strength and power, you may never reach your full potential as a trader. Poise and power is what will distinguish you from the rest of the traders.Poise is the key to your mental strength and power in trading.

US Market Status for Friday Feb 20th 2009

The number of shares which traded hands on the S&P 500 was 6,832 million shares today, which was higher by 64% than the average daily volume sustained over the past 3 months.

Everyone from the public to the private sector to government have been talking about the idea of nationalizing the nation's banks. After Treasury Secretary Geithner's refusal to let large institutions fail, many in government including some Republicans and former Chairman Greenspan have chimed on that the idea of taking over the companies, separating out the good and the bad assets and then reselling the good assets to solvent banks would be a good one. Many are saying that the route that government is taking is the same that the Japanese government has taken in the 1990s which has led to a decade of lost economic progress.

Legendary former Fed chairman and current Presidential advisor Paul Volcker spoke to a cadre of economists on Friday. He noted that the world's financial markets have 'broken down in the face of almost all expectation and prediction'. In relative terms, Volcker mentioned that he doesn't remember a time that things went down quite so fast. In brighter terms, the 81 year old Volcker said that he expects Capitalism to survive. Another point which he urged was to have stronger international cooperation in implementing a universal regulatory framework. He also stressed his concern that central banks have acquired large amounts of power during the crisis.

U.S. cannot go back to old ways, Nobel laureates say

The United States cannot battle its economic crisis by simply trying to go back to its old ways of spending too much and saving too little, two Nobel prize-winning economists said on Friday.

Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York, said a $40 trillion loss in global wealth, a reflection of declines in stock prices and home values, would not easily be reversed.

Joseph Stiglitz, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and a professor at Columbia, said in a separate panel that the banking sector has shown itself to be a detriment to society rather than a positive driving force.

Stiglitz said that, under the guise of innovation, banks discovered new ways of taking risks that brought few benefits to most people and are now threaten the entire global economy.

They not only didn't innovate, they actually resisted innovations that were important," Stiglitz said. "It was heads I win, tails you lose. And you lost America."

He argued that talk of increasing transparency is actually an effort to divert attention from the real issue: financial complexity designed to pad profits and hide them from the eyes of regulators.

I agree with the above assesment and I think the worst is yet to come.

Overseas in the European Continent:

Lack of understanding of the credit crunch is magnifying its damage

The tide has gone out and, with a very few exceptions, Britain is swimming naked: almost nobody appears to know what he is talking about. The havoc of the financial crisis has stretched and outstripped even most economists. The British political class is befogged. Ordinary people are overwhelmed. And just as the interaction between banking and economic woes is proving poisonous, so the interplay of public and political ignorance is damaging the country’s prospects.

It is not only banking about which general knowledge seems poor: the same is true of the concept of money. The nasty little secret of the slump is that by overborrowing and making myopic investments, lots of ordinary Britons helped to bring their difficulties on themselves. Low levels of financial literacy (knowing the difference between an ISA and an iPod, and so on) are part of this problem. But so is the cowardly reluctance of politicians to say unpalatable things.

The philosopher Bertrand Russell once remarked that he knew of only six people in the world who had followed his daunting book “Principia Mathematica” to the end. There sometimes seem to be almost as few people in Britain who truly understand the credit crunch and its recessionary consequences. The public is scared and uncertain; the politicians are panicky and confused. They are leading each other around and down a worrying spiral of ignorance.

High Probability Projections for the E-Mini S&P500

Tuesday-June 30,2009
The E-minis are on the way into the 907-900 zone. The VIX Count is at 23 Down from 53.25 peak in March, and very oversold.

The RSI ( 2 ) is falling at 54
The market came down a second time to below the 910 Key support , consolidated there and could not trade above the 917-920 breakdown resistance, that is an OMEN for further breakdown.

July 1st-Wednesday:
New month/quarter cash inflows prompted some early gains, but everything stalled after the first hour and shortly after taking out yesterday's highs. A lot of midday chop was followed by selling into the close.

Tomorrow's jobs data could provide some direction, but for now we continue the pattern of low volume on up days and higher volume on down days.

Technically on the S&P500, this is a potential head and shoulders topping formation. With today's break through yesterday's low (916) momentum is now to the downside. It would now take a rally over SPX 930 to reverse this.

The E-Mini made an Outside Day with the heaviest Volume near the Low at 911.75, closing above the VAH.
which suggests short cover rally late in the session.

During the GLOBEX the 922 Prev POC wil probably be tested then sold to close the gap before the Day Session starts at 9:30am est.

Need to see price action on Wed July 1st to make a decision on trade Entry. Stay Tune.

8:15:02 est SELL STOP 920.75 Target : 916.00
SOLD Filled 920.75 Price Action in the ESU9 -E-Minin S&P500 was exactly as expected. Market rallied to Previous POC and then drop down to part fill the gap before the 8:15am Report.
Target NOT reached. Exited trade for only +2Pts Gain,
after the Open First Hour the Trend is UP.

The 907 to 900 Zone has been reached today as predicted

Well, how about THAT ! the market does exactly what was expected and exceeded my expectations: :smart:

Payrolls numbers worst than expected, NO BRAINER !

CNBC does not like to admitted, but they keep cheerleading Investor into the Market at the wrong time in the Economic Cycle.

Have you ever wonder or noticed how most CNBC Analysts, Guests, or Traders never seem to answer the questions directly or talk at length in general terms without any substance in what they are saying and many times drifting off the subject completely ?.Quite amazing, how they get away with that trick of Blah, Blah ,Blah without really saying anything USEFUL on TV !


Having said that, I think there is a high probability that it will drop down to 900.00 level on the ESU9.

At 8:20am est there was a clue to the reaction or direction of the Equities when the Payrolls Report was released, the CLUE was in the 30yr Bonds Futures ( ZBU9 ) it was doing a complete reversal Wide Range Bar UP
10mins before the release of the Report. :-0

SOLD 913.50, Prev Low - Target is 899.50

Target Filled at 899.00 for + 14.50 Pts GAIN

:clap: Take the money and run, :clap: LOL

High Probability Projections for the E-Mini S&P500

Looks like the last Post had 87 Views,the most views for a single Blog Post since July 2nd, so is good to know many people follow this Blog :

Here is the next trade Ladies and Gentlemen:

Friday was an Inside Day and also a NR6 on the
E-Mini S&P500. It closed up 1.25 points on Friday on very low volume – only 1.3 million contracts traded on the Day Session. It was also a low range (high to low) bar that signaled High Volume Churn on the daily chart – a sign that the Professionals are taking profits.

4,488 million shares were traded on the S&P 500 Friday, a volume production that is close to the index's average daily volume output over the past three months.


It seems that no one wants to be first to push this market through the 950 level. On the other side, no one is in a hurry to Short either.

The RSI ( 2 ) is at 98 and the Vix Count is #25 and New Low of 23.83.

Here is what probably will happen, since this is the second approach to the old Resistance Level of 952
( June 5th )the Globex High was 957.50 there is a very high probability that the Heavy Stops Accumulation above these numbers will be taken out before they sell it down hard.Maybe an Outside Day then Drop !

In the meantime, we’re also getting close to a cycle turn (top) on the Emini daily chart. We could get cycle turns lining up on both the Propriatery minute Chart and Daily charts – which would signal a powerful move.

Here is the Trade:
If 928 Prev Low is tested during Globex or during Day Session, then and ONLY then, SELL STOP 928.

If not tested then will wait for the market to show me a Sell Signal Clue near the Old Key Resistance or ABOVE it.

Fundamentals:

In spite of the recent, almost hyper-bullish run (the NASDAQ 100 has closed up for eight consecutive sessions; the Dow has ended in the green on seven of the last eight sessions), the newest unemployment data is not all that rosy. According to new data released by the Labor Department today, there are now 15 states with unemployment rates exceeding 10%. Worst example: The official jobless rate in Michigan State is now over 15%; it is the first time since 1984 that any State has hit that level. In contrast, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota reported the lowest unemployment rates for June, at 4.2%, 5%, and 5.1%, respectively.

Market commentators are debating how still rising unemployment rates nationwide could ultimately take their toll on the hoped-for economic rebound. The fear is that jobless consumers will once again clamp down on their spending, putting a damper on the economic recovery process. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve projected that the US unemployment rate (which is currently at a 26-year high) could surpass the 10% mark nationwide by the end of this year. According to the opinion of several Fed policymakers, it could take as much as five plus years for the US labor market to get back to a healthy state.

Meanwhile, this week's stellar gains on the major indexes (which averaged in the neighborhood of 7 to 7.5%) appear to imply that investors are not terribly worried about unemployment numbers and that they are instead counting on a quick economic recovery (the stock market acts as a discounting mechanism which typically looks to six to nine months into the future). According to one market commentator the reason for the recent surge is simply that '...earnings are better than expected and the economic news is not horrifically bad'.

Earnings to date have been mixed to positive. It is not clear yet however to what extent this week's earnings releases will be representative of the entire second-quarter earnings season. Among the more influential companies scheduled to report earnings next week are Caterpillar, DuPont, Merck, Apple, and others.