Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary

This is a discussion on Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I've decided to start this blog as a diary of my trades, successes and failures. Reason for is to realise ...

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Old Apr 13, 2008, 6:18pm   #1
 
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Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary

I've decided to start this blog as a diary of my trades, successes and failures.

Reason for is to realise from my own mistakes of bad trades with a view to sharpen these up, this is for all to see.

All opens and closes will not be posted in live time but instead I will disclose all trades at the end of the week and will be verified with actual screenshots.
Targets for week ahead wil be given from all target markets and shall be broken down.
Target markets are Ftse100, Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) and S&P500.

Any targets not reached will have a reason attached, giving reasons for not hitting targets (this happens) and what went wrong (I make mistakes), however is no excuse.

The overall goal is to provide hope for new (and old) traders that may find it difficult to get into (or for some, get out) of bad habits in trading and hopefully provide inspiration that money can be made from the markets.
Steady and consistantly is the key.

My trading style is that of a long term view mainly using fundamentals but with a technical approach for entry and exits. Some contracts can be held for many weeks, sometimes months before realising profits and drawdowns are obviously part and parcel of the trading game.

Any one with a long term view should be able to make money simply by leaving the cash on the index over a long period of time(years), however, outside factors make it difficult for one to be truely successful due to contract expiry dates.

It is with my intention to not just beat the index gain for the year but at least look at a return 3 to 8 times higher than the average index gains against margin on account. (this will differ from spreadbetting to direct access).

Lee Shepherd

Last edited by Lee Shepherd; Apr 13, 2008 at 6:30pm.
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Old Apr 13, 2008, 6:26pm   #2
 
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Current Targets for target markets

Lee Shepherd started this thread Current target points per contract close are:

Target points are subject to change on a basis of volatility and will be posted before the change comes into effect.

Ftse100 = 50pts
DJIA = 75pts
S&P500 = 13pts

All targets are subject to a discrepancy above or below 10% of target. Any thing more or less than this will have a reason attached and viewed on a weekly basis.

Happy Trading.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Apr 19, 2008, 5:20pm   #3
 
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Trades for Week 14th April to 20th April 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread well, another week has past and opportunity has been had by all.

All trades are listed below for week 14-04-08 to 20-04-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100, DJIA and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
DJIA = 75pts (has now been revised)
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 1200-1400pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x5 Long closed for +232pts (Average is 46.4) Acceptable
x3 Short closed for +132pts (Average is 44) Just short due to unaware of movement at time of close. Target a little shy but no action needed.
Total = 364pts over 8 contracts gives average of 45.5.

DJIA x14 Long closed for +482pts (average is 34.42) 3x long contract were closed at a loss of -100pts, -102pts and -47pts. Total points taken was +731 minus loss of -249 =+482pts.
Reason: Limit down on dow due to getting out of target market, excess margin will be used on s&p and ftse due to margin differences. That being that percentage over earnings for markets give greater value for money on remaining 2 markets. I'm sure this is something that all traders in these markets have noticed with regards to margin increases and/or slower points over percentage of gain on dow in comparison to ftse and s&p. The same reason as to why the Nikkei 225 was dropped back in march 13th of this year.

S&P x10 Long closed for 124.8pts(average is 12.48) Acceptable.

Total for week = 29 wins and 3 losses for +970.8pts.

Target off due to dumping dow contracts as margin is better used elsewhere.

1 remaining dow long contract left to be closed before expiration on 17th June 2008.

Weekly target for points is now 600-900.
Dow was taking up almost 40% of margin against other 2 combined at any given time.
S&P will now be traded with 25% more capital which leaves 15% margin for error so as a result further increases safety and allows a quarter more earnings which equates to the same as what would be lost not trading the dow. The rest of the capital has been added to savings.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.
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Old Apr 26, 2008, 5:40pm   #4
 
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Week 21-04-08 to 27-04-08

Lee Shepherd started this thread A surprising week trading in a tight range (daily moving average) and ending the week not too far off higher than where we started although shot clear of my predicted resistance of 6100 on Ftse (futures). During this week I've managed to catch a few shorts but less than I'd have hoped for. Having spent another evening in London and meeting up with Tom Hougaard (tradertom.com) I have noticed a slight increase in better trading using a more refined Technical approach which has shown an increased performance in hitting targets. Still, on the technical side I have a long way to go if any thing just to know more about it and at times put into practice. The markets have many sides and to increase my knowledge of these sides certainly won't do any harm. Although taking 24 hours away from the trading station (using PDA only) made, as always trading a little difficult although still managed to hit upper end of target.

All trades are listed below for week 21-04-08 to 27-04-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100, DJIA (one left outstanding to close) and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
DJIA = n/a pts (Looking for best price between now and 17th June)
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 600-900pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x7 Long closed for +369pts (Average per contract is 52.7) Spot on target.
x8 Short closed for +429pts (Average is 53.6) Spot on target.
Total = +798pts over 15 contracts gives average of 53.2. Spot on target.

DJIA - n/a. 1x long to close between now and 17th June.

S&P x4 Long closed for 45.8pts(average is 11.45) Just shy of target. No action needed.
x7 Short closed for +97.5pts (average is 13.92) Spot on target.
Total = +143.3pts over 11 contracts gives average of 13.02. Spot on target.

Total for week = 26 contracts closed for 941.3pts. Spot on.


Weekly target for points is 700-900. Moved lower target up by 100pts.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.
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Old May 3, 2008, 4:15pm   #5
 
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Week 28th April to 4th May 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Well this week has certainly caught me out with the Ftse not only smashing through 6100 but now closing above 6200. This along with the Dow Jones comfortably trading well above 13000 and the S&P trading well above 1400. It's almost like we've forgotten all the bad news thats still present and so the markets remain high on confidence. Could some bad news come out to destroy this myth? Who knows. As I type I am 100% short in Ftse 100 and S&P500 (bar 1 long s&p). I would be happy to trail the shorts on the ftse upto and just above 6300 but at some time soon (next week or two) we could see a pullback in the region of 5800, I'd certainly be looking for ftse to trade below the 6000 level. For this reason I am still comfortably short in both target markets.



All trades are listed below for week 28-04-08 to 04-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 700-900pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x1 Long closed for +13pts (Average per contract is 13). Believed to be start of pullback so closed out less of target hit.

x5 Short closed for +267pts (Average is 53.4) Spot on target.
Total = +280pts over 6 contracts gives average of 46.6pts. Within target range.

DJIA x1 Long closed for -516pts(minus) (average is -516). Closed a day too early but was pleased with timing and value. This is the last of the bad lot I've written off since the credit/recession fears.

S&P x6 Long closed for 90pts(average is 15) Slightly above target. Held on due to hedged short against loss, also, no retracement seen prior to target close.

x7 Short closed for +90.2pts (average is 12.88) Spot on target.
Total = +180.2pts over 13 contracts gives average of 13.86. Within target range.

Total for week = 20 contracts closed for -55.8pts.(minus)
Points thrown into the minus and truely unaceptable, however, this loss had to be realised at some point before expiration of contract on 17th June and believe that anything could now shake the market confidence. This is obvious with my current market position.

Long DJIA contract dumped at loss that was bought before the recession fears truely kicked in and markets have shot up throwing my shorts out for the moment.
Next week will be looking for more downside, if the market continues upwards then this will provide me a trying week. If markets continue in this fashion and by all accounts could be deemed as getting in slightly early then I will seek comfort in the saying 'The bigger they are, the harder they fall'. For this reason, target for next week has been lowered for the expectation that the markets could possibly rise up to the challenge.


Weekly target for points is 300-600, If we continue to see upward motion next week.
If slide comes into play then I would expect to take between 600-900pts.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.
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Old May 11, 2008, 10:24pm   #6
 
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Trading week 5th May to 11th May 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Strange week for target markets, ftse wanted to climb the hill and the S&P wanted to stay in bed. Getting a small retracement on S&P helped with points this week. The Ftse on the other hand wanted to present me with a greater challenge and decided to trade up above 6200 and has hardly come back down. Given current market conditions I am still more than pleased to hold Short contracts for both target markets and am still looking for the Ftse to trade below 6000.
If 6000 breaks then I would be looking for more downside to trade around 5800 for Longs, but thats another story yet to unfold.


All trades are listed below for week 05-05-08 to 11-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 300-600pts Lower target
Weekly 600-900pts Higher target if slide came into play

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x7 Short closed for +367pts (Average per contract is 52.42). Spot on Target

S&P x13 Short closed for 169.8pts(average is 13.06) Spot on Target

Total for week = 20 contracts closed for +536.8pts

Upper end of lower target reached - Small slides on S&P made it a bit easier but with Ftse dragging its heels behind we'll wait to see what happens next.


Still comfortable with current Shorts on both target markets and will be looking for ftse to trade below 6000 within the next 2 weeks although I'm looking to close off some Shorts on any potential pullback the ftse offers this coming week.


Weekly target for points is 400-700.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

P.S: Screenshot format is slightly different due to new updated platform and features.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd.
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Old May 17, 2008, 10:07am   #7
 
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Week 12th to 18th May 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Well all I can say is my timing is out - Simple.
The Ftse was still trading it's range until friday when we saw a breakout to the north, this has surprised me but not unexpected. I am now convinced that the ftse is overbought and that anything could now shake it down off its long fragile legs. No news seems to be shaking the ftse and coupled with the fact of - global slowdown in growth has not dissapeared, recession fears have not gone away and the credit crunch, although maybe coming to an end, the effects have certainly not - we see huge gains (17% rise from lows)on a (perhaps) fools rally.
The ftse is only off 6% from its highs, its almost like nothing ever happened and we are trading with last years figures.
Are we back to normal? Can the Ftse go much higher? Are we under are warm duvets feeling too comfortable?
I say one is false, one is potentially true and one is fact. What do you say?

All trades are listed below for week 12-05-08 to 18-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 400-700pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x14 Short closed for +786pts (Average per contract is 56.14). Slighty over target, this is due to some better closing aided with an increased knowledge of a particular area in Technical Analysis that seems currently effective.

S&P x4 Short closed for 35.6pts(average is 8.9) 32% off target

S&P x4 Long closed for 31.6pts(average is 7.9) 39% off target

It would seem that I've had a hard time trading S&P this week. Maybe its because I paid more attention to the ftse, however, this is hard to prove. I wont use common sayings like the S&P been 'playing up' or 'behaving strange' or even perhaps 'doing wierd things' and has 'caught me out'. The fact of the matter is clear, the markets always do the same thing - and that is - they do what they want to. If people are the same and cyclical changes are the same then its clear to note that the markets will remain the same, after all, they can only go up or down, how hard can it be?

Conclusion for S&P is that I've clearly taken my eye off the ball this week and paid more attention to the ftse. Traded both long and short on S&P should have easily of bought home the targets, there was plenty of opportunity as there is every day, I just failed to get it.

An opportunity is never missed - just taken by someone else.


Total for week = 22 contracts closed for +853.2pts

Over target by 153.2 - Underestimated.


Still comfortable with current Shorts on both target markets and will be looking for ftse to trade below 6000 next week although I'm looking to close off some Shorts on any potential pullback the ftse offers.


Weekly target for points is 800-1200.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old May 24, 2008, 5:10pm   #8
 
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Week 19th May to 25th May 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread The ftse has finally broke and headed down. Seeing it push up to the recent high of 6390(intraday) without it breaking 6400 was a sure sign if any of its last push before the break.
The key question for the coming week is 'will the sell off continue and if so how far'.
I'm still light short on the ftse and light short on S&P with some hedged in longs on S&P to give protection on profits and limit risk should the markets bounce back up. Maybe we'll see a dead cat bounce. I'm still looking for the ftse to break below 6000, however, this weeks trading will be mostly discretionary on trading direction as it's extremely possible to see a rise before a fall.

All trades are listed below for week 19-05-08 to 25-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 800-1200pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x23 Short closed for +1371pts (Average per contract is 59.60). Over target by 19%.
This is due to some slightly different approaches on exits (arguebly the most important aspect) and an improvement on last weeks results. This result is still aided by a continued gaining of knowledge on a particular technical analysis system (TA is used extensively only after targets have been reached)

S&P x14 Short closed for 221.7pts(average is 15.83)
A marked improvement from last week. Not only has the target been brought back in line but also gone over it by 22%. This has also been aided by a good decline this week and by paying the attention needed to hit the targets. This has also been aided with a TA approach.


A stronger Technical analysis approach has been implemented in certain areas over the last few months and I'm now just starting to see the result of the hard work and long hours that has been put in. I'd like to mention and extend my gratitude to Ceydababy(Mark) who has helped in certain areas of TA by providing not only graphs but also a great deal of his time over the last couple of months by walking me through many different aspects.
Also thanks to Tom Hougaard who has helped me with some basic and extensive Technical Analysis and has been a great help and inspiration when we've met and also in the live trading room on skype.


Although I've been trading indices for many years and stocks for over a decade it just goes to show that I'm certainly not above learning. The last few months has been like a huge learning curve all over again and I was amazed on how many things I didn't know that I didn't know (if that makes sense). As with many things, sometimes they break and no longer work, if this becomes the case then targets only will be hit. As at this time, targets for both markets will not be revised until proof of consistancy of shooting over target.

Total for week = 40 contracts closed for +1711.5pts

Over target by 511.5 - Underestimated due to the uncertainty of the move in the market and with the greater and improved knowledge of using certain instruments to give a greater percentage on returns of margin used.


Weekly target for points is 500-800. (only 4 trading sessions on ftse)
Account is currently undertraded and overfunded so not expecting too much from coming week.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Last edited by Lee Shepherd; May 24, 2008 at 5:16pm.
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