Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary

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Old Jul 26, 2008, 9:31am   #17
 
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21st to 27th July 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Not many trades this week as was ill for 2 days which affected trading.

Market Comment:
Ftse didn't quite make it into the 5500 area we are looking for to confirm a possible bottom. Maybe next week we will see it trade over 5500 and in the next month see 5500 as more of a support line. Oil trading much lower to $123 is also helping to find support in the markets globally. Closing down on the week makes for another interesting week coming as the market belongs to anyone at this time. We must be prepared for this to trade subsequently lower than 5000.

S&P closed also down slightly on the week, this will make it interesting for the nikkei225 open monday morning as this closed firmly up on the week. Interestingly I will be looking to see how Asia trades (sunday night) monday morning as it will either fall on the back of the U.S close on friday and then we will have to see what America does, or, it will rise and lead the way ready for when everyone awakes. Although seems simple and obvious, some great
divergence is something that is seen here. I still feel its very much a two way market at the moment but am seeing a fraction amount more support for bulls. For this reason I will remain trading 100% Long in all target markets.

S&P: How are we handling the losses:
Although unplanned, one contract was closed at a loss of -57.6 pts. I have now released limit down on this market and will commence trading from next week onwards. This was done instead of sitting pretty with a loss, close it, then buy back and trade the current range. Worst case is that it goes back to price I originally bought at in one straight rise and I lose the spread/commission paid. Although possible, it is of course unlikely that the S&P will do a straight rise to 1338. By doing this I can now buy the contract back for more than 20pts better than I closed at. As long as the market remains moving up and down we will continue to make money with this one contract on the range.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.


Have now fully reviewed all the trades carried out in the last shorting period along with the certain Technical tools being used. I am satisfactorily pleased to confirm that an extra 10pts can be successfully gained on ftse only. Targets for markets will now have Short and Long points to gain. Reviewing the same for S&P came in as expected when trading. Conclusion: didn't work on this occassion.


All trades are listed below for week 21-07-08 to 27-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = (absolute return)

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x7 Long closed for +347pts (ave 49.57pts). Spot on target.


S&P x1 Long closed for -57.6pts MINUS (ave -57.6) No target was due as was in limit down. Contract closed for range trading possibilities.

Total for week = 8 contracts closed for +289.4pts


Target is now back in place and will resume where left off.

Next Week target for points will be 500-800


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Aug 4, 2008, 8:25pm   #18
 
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28th July to 3rd August 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Had the weekend off and have only just got round to posting last weeks results.

Market Comment:
Ftse 100 seems to have found a bottom although we are still in a confirmation period. Anyone looking to get in could enter light in the hope of another run up to 5500. If we cross this level, which has been tried several times now, may then turn into more of a support as oppose to the resistance it appears to be throwing up.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 28-07-08 to 3-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x7 Long closed for +336pts (ave 48pts). Spot on target.


S&P x6 Long closed for +62.7pts (ave 10.45pts) Missed target by 20%. Due to constant target misses, target and performance is now under review. Lets see how we do this week.

Note: One entry not mentioned in results for which shows up on screenshot. 1x S&P Long opened in error and closed immediately. In this instance it run into profit by +0.3pts but due to being an error is not recorded in actual results. Errors happen from time to time and are closed out quickly, some making money, some losing.

Total for week = 13 contracts closed for +398.7pts

Missed weekly target by 21%.

2 Ftse contracts would have done it and there were a few missed opportunities during this weeks trading. A more firm stance should make points over 500 on a weekly basis once again.


Next Week target for points will be 500-800 - Remaining the same until reached.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Aug 9, 2008, 10:13am   #19
 
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4th to 10th August 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5489 up +135 on week.
Ftse 100 has still not closed above the 5500 level where we are seeing some fantastic resistance. Note to spreadbettors: Dont be fooled in to thinking the market closed the week above this level or any day this week, it didn't, beware: these are bookies prices. Anyway, some have asked why this level is important, it is a level to which would still confirm growth, albeit small. Inflation is being helped on the lower side with falls in oil and other commodities (energy), corn and other commodities (Grain) as well as gold. This will all help to reduce inflation and thus give the BOE a bit of room to move the rates lower by 25bp by end of year. We are seeing prices drop in shops by 50% off here and 75% off there as well as many great offers in the food industry and supermarkets. We're seeing less employment and jobs disappearing which will help prevent people from demanding higher wages which further reduces the risk of wage inflation. We've also witnessed the return of those great lending adverts and loan offers not only on the t.v but in papers, billboards, banks and radio. This is as sure sign they have money to give away, so lets borrow money and go and spend it, we'll raise this economy back up. We are currently tracking 5800 to 6200 by year end.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 04-08-08 to 10-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x14 Long closed for +722pts (ave 51.57pts). Spot on target.

NOTE: 1x error on ftse contract not included in results but visable on screenshot. Was of incorrect size and as a result was closed out immediately when noticed. In this instance there was a small profit of +5pts.


S&P x6 Long closed for +74.3pts (ave 12.38pts) Within target range.



Total for week = 20 contracts closed for +796.3pts

Upper end of target reached.



Next Week target for points will be 600-900, raised up by 100.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Aug 16, 2008, 10:06am   #20
 
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11th to 17th August 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5454 down -35 on week.
Monday and Tuesday saw closes above the 5500 level both at 5541 and 5534, however, it didn't hold onto them and preceded to close lower wednesday and never to come back upto the 5500. We have to be careful not to be suckered into any potential bear market rally so stops would have to be tight and positions small. Next week will give us a bit more confirmation as to where we are heading. At present I would still be happy to hold a light Long attitude but this could change come monday morning so lets see how Asia does and watch carefully what the ftse does on open.



Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 11-08-08 to 17-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x5 Long closed for +215pts (ave 43pts). Just outside of target range but nothing to worry about.


S&P x4 Long closed for +48.3pts (ave 12.07pts) Within target range.



Total for week = 9 contracts closed for +263.3pts

Missed target by a mile, also missed a couple of opportunities during the week as the ftse didn't seem to hold above 5500 area. This is where I was looking to be most aggressive. Until I have more confirmation, target will be extremely hard to judge and so a very cautious nature prevails. This happens on occassions when the market sticks within a tight range with no general direction of which we have seen of late. Until this breaks, weekly target for points will cease.



Next Week target for points will be (temporarily ceased)


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Last edited by Lee Shepherd; Aug 16, 2008 at 10:10am.
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Old Aug 23, 2008, 5:08pm   #21
 
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18th to 24th August 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5505 up +135 on week.

O.k, so we are here again, 5500 level. It broke down from here 2 weeks back so we will watch again and look for long positions on the light side. I will be aggressively trading above this level should it stick, the moment it goes below 5500 will then be traded out of to remain of the highest caution. Providing we can stick above this level for 5 straight sessions and close higher next week, will then become a high probability that it will turn into more of a support level as oppose to the resistance we've had from it. It's more than likely we still haven't seen the last of banking writedowns but I feel its fairly safe to say that the banks can't have much left to write off, they have to have some business at the end of the day and believe that we are now entering the last bad quarter before things start to pan out a little and bad news becomes not so bad news. Lets bear in mind here that the markets have priced in a good recession so, providing we see one, we should be trading around the lower end of 5000, if no recession then above 6000. It would seem that although things are bad, they are appearing not to be as bad as priced and are still on target to close the year between 5800 and 6200 as a trading range.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 18-08-08 to 24-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = Temporarily ceased

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x7 Long closed for +345pts (ave 49.28pts). Spot on target.


S&P x2 Long closed for +24.7pts (ave 12.35pts) Within target range.

Total for target markets is 9 contracts closed for +369.7pts


Due to being undertraded on positions as am awaiting confirmation on certain levels to trade more aggressive, some money was put into crude oil contracts to trade for the day only, a night shift was also taken on Thursday to trade the Nikkei225 futures along with closing down the crude contracts that were left over from the days trading. Crude was traded due to the dollar weakening sharply and the belief that it would strenghthen again the next day, also that the conflict with Russia V's Georgia was being taken advantage of to push oil higher by over $6 during the U.S session. A small bet was placed on this to trade Short from $122, as soon as confirmation was given to be on the down side then range trading took place to capture small up and down movements as can be seen by time and value of contracts on screenshot.


Crude oil (oct) Short =15 x win for +590pts
2 x losers for -106pts(minus) Total +484pts

Nikkei225 x2 Long = 1 win of +25pts and 1 loser for -85pts Totalling -60(minus)


Total for week = 28 contracts closed for +793.7pts



Next Week target for points will be (temporarily ceased until confirmation above 5500)


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Aug 30, 2008, 12:12pm   #22
 
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25th to 31st August 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5636 up +130 on week.

We got what we wanted, anyone that has entered long above the 5500 level should now be cautious of any fall back to below this level. Now we have shot firmly above 5600 could represent a small Short position to be traded upto 5800 but out at 5500 and within the next 4 weeks. The shorts should be less than any Long positions to the tune of around 80% Long, above 5700 around 60-70% Long and trade to 5800 with mostly Shorts in the tune of 80-90%. This is the plan but beware of any change during the week.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 25-08-08 to 31-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts (Absolute return until above 5700)
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = Temporarily ceased (back in place from next week)

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x11 Long closed for +590pts (ave 53.63pts). Within target range.

Ftse x5 Short closed for +79pts (ave 15.8pts). No target set until trading above 5700

S&P x3 Long closed for +34.9pts (ave 11.63pts) Just below target range. A problem has been spotted for this market and is discussed below.

Total contracts closed on week is 19 for +703.9pts


S&P problem:
It has been noted that this market has not been as volatile as the ftse and has been observed over the last 3 months. This has had an effect on the number of contracts closed and as you can see in above results, 11x ftse for 3x s&p, the targets and trading has remained constant and consistant however, the target market has not. This is not a one off result and yet revising the margin required over movement in price shows clearly that the ftse now represents far greater value for money. For this reason the s&p will be traded out of for the next cycle and will aim to exit around 19th September. Excess margin will be withdrawn and will work out as aproximately 55% of funds. Around 30% will be withdrawn and 25% put into ftse so as the points lost not trading s&p will be made up by trading the ftse with the 25% extra funds for this target market. During this time and over the next 4 weeks will be looking into trading differences between other target markets being, nikkei225, dax30 and dow jones30.


Next Week target for points will be 700-1100pts


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 10:47am   #23
 
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1st to 7th September 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5240 down -396 on week.

Wow, what an end to the week. As soon as that 5500 level broke, to which it held for a short while, slid faster than we could make a succesful analysis on any positions. Shorts where closed out completely so missed the boat on the majority of the action. Longs are now firmly back in play to the tune of 100% and are now working off December contracts for Longs and any shorts will be quick, so, Oct/Nov contracts will be used. A clear out of old stock will be in play over the next 2 weeks for offside September contracts. As points are made, they will offset against losses so will not be expecting much over the next couple of weeks. Expected total writeoffs will be in the region of around 4000 to 7000 points. Attempts to cushion this will be of the highest priority and a more accurate figure will emerge as the days go into weeks.

We're at that stage again where we will be giving the losses high priority.

How are we handling the losses: To be continued and will end 21st sept. (2 more blogs)


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 01-09-08 to 07-09-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = 700 to 1100

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x3 Long closed for +78pts (ave 26.0pts). Closed off as we had first signs of market sliding.

Ftse x11 Short closed for +257pts (ave 23.36pts). No target set until trading above 5700.

S&P x2 Long closed for +26.3pts (ave 13.15pts). Market will now be in limit down as trading out of is now in full force. Losses to ensue.

Nikkei225 x2 Long closed for +355pts. Excess margin used to catch some positive moves early on in the week.

Total contracts closed on week is 18 for +716.3pts

Not quite what we hoped for, if ftse remained over the 5600 or even traded up to 5800 before sliding down more points would have been made to smash the higher end of target of 1100. As it is, lower end of target met.




Next Week target for points will be: Write off period, see 'How we are handling the losses.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Sep 13, 2008, 5:46pm   #24
 
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8th to 14th September 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Market Comment:
FTSE closed at 5416 up +176 on week.

Right, we are still looking for that boost above 5500, we keep getting there only to be put back down again quicker than Amir Khan. I am now a little cautious about any pending Shorts above 5500 and am now looking for light Shorts above 5600, maybe 5700. This is borne out of the idea that we could see a rally on top of a rally, the first one holding, the second coming back down to where it started. This I feel could happen in quick concession as inflation slams down, interest rates get cut and the pound weakens further. We are still at that stage where we will be giving the losses high priority.

How are we handling the losses: To be continued and will end 21st sept. (1 more blog)

This week saw the first of some of the right downs, so far we are expecting the worst right offs since trading began. However, the markets have been in the worst state since trading began. Most of the right downs came from short dated Nikkei255 contracts which were purchased as more of a bit of lady luck to iron out the losses. They were purchased during the week in the possible outcome we would settle closer to 13000 as oppose to 12000, as it were they settled at 12296 and break even was around 12500. 2 weeks previous to date +768pts were made but due to uncertain market events with our Asian friends made losing -2136pts(minus), bringing it to a total loss of -1368pts(minus). Just over the equivalent of an average week.

Losses for next week are still expected to be in the region of around 6000pts, give or take a thousand or two.

Not to be disheartened with the horrific losses we've faced this quarter I'd like to take this opportunity to show the years results to date, also bear in mind that a good spring clean means starting with a clean slate for the next cycle to take us up to Christmas.

Year start 3rd March '08
Total points lost = 12,949 over 45 contracts

Total points gained = 23,227.9 over 558 contracts

Hit rate (per contract) is 8.1% loss against 91.9% success

Points win rate ratio is 55.7% gain against 44.3% loss.

Average contract loss = 287.75pts

Average contract win = 41.6pts

Gives a factor of risk/reward to -6.9(minus)
NB: Not so an accurate figure as day trading is included with position held contracts.

Average contract held = 2 days (very approximate)
Average day trade contract is aprox 3 hours.
Average position trade is aprox 6 weeks.

Discrepancy in figures above are due to 95% of contracts being traded on a daily basis.

This highlights the lack of importance a hit rate can be without seeing actual results as posted here for all to see amongst all other figures. Broken down makes more sense to actual trading results as can be seen on a weekly basis and tallied up.

This gives a firm example of what you would need to know to invest your hard earned cash into a hedge fund or a system, here you can see how easily it would be to manipulate the figures of a system to show a hit rate of over 90% success on wins against losses, if the losses outweigh the gains then it is no good.

Some more figures will be done using an equity curve graph and will be posted sometime after the losses have been cleared out. Thanks go out to Trader_Dante for highlighting this. Thanks Tom.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open Monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible‘,’ could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 08-09-08 to 14-09-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: FTSE 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
FTSE Long = 50pts
FTSE Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = Write off period.

All targets can have a variation of 10%


FTSE x10 Long closed for +466pts (ave 46.6pts).

FTSE x3 Long Losses for -517pts(minus) ave 172.33

FTSE x8 Short closed for +315pts (ave 39.37pts). No target set until trading above 5700.

S&P x4 Long closed for +49.3pts (ave 12.32pts).

S&P x8 Long Losses for -582pts(minus) ave 72.75

Nikkei225 x4 Long closed for +413pts.

Nikkei225 x7 Long Losses for -2136pts(minus) ave 305.14

Total contracts closed on week is 44 for -1991.7pts(minus)


Next Week target for points will be: Write off period, see 'How we are handling the losses.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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