Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary

This is a discussion on Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; No S&P shorts will be taken until after 20th June due to contract expiry dates. Current positions are now 100% ...

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Old May 31, 2008, 4:17pm   #9
 
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Joined Feb 2008
Week 26th May to 1st June 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread No S&P shorts will be taken until after 20th June due to contract expiry dates. Current positions are now 100% Long S&P and will remain that way for the time being and not before 20th June. Trading will be Long only in this market.
Ftse is around 70% Short with some hedged in Longs for cover against risk, trading this market will remain discretionary for the week ahead.

All trades are listed below for week 26-05-08 to 1-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x11 Short closed for +662pts (Average per contract is 60.18). Over target by 20%.
Particular TA approach seems to be sticking(3 weeks). Still too early to review targets.

Ftse x2 Long closed for +100pts (ave 50). Spot on target. TA on this occasion did not seem as efficient on longs.

S&P x3 Short closed for 24.7pts(average is 8.23) off target by 37%.
Last of short contracts and were dumped to get rid.
Although not at target made a conscious decision to which I am comfortable with.

S&P x3 Long close for 34.3pts(ave 11.43) Just off target range.
Hedged against shorts so were closed off to balance account.

Total for week = 19 contracts closed for +821pts

Top end of target reached.


Next Week target for points is 400-700.

Account is now extremely undertraded and so not expecting too much from the coming week. Looking towards picking up new entrees by month end to get account margin back into a better profitable target area. For this reason next weeks target points are lower.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Jun 7, 2008, 4:06pm   #10
 
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Week 2nd June to 8th June 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Although I mentioned that no S&P shorts were to be taken I will reserve the right here to use the discretionary trading card as mentioned last week. As the market shot back up above 1400 a day before NFP results, the opportunity arrived to close longs and take immediate reversal. This was borne from the idea that if the NFP was higher jobs/lower unemployed rate then this would be a problem for inflation and would put pressure on the Fed to up interest rates and at the least hold off from lowering, if the NFP was to be fewer jobs/higher unemployment rate then this would put pressure on the markets as signs of slower growth/recession fears. Either way the market would react in the short term back below 1400, this will allow the Fed some freedom in interest rate cuts in the near future whilst inflation is closely monitored.

Still waiting for both target markets to give a steady signal before jumping in. For this reason trading will remain discretionary for the coming week.



All trades are listed below for week 02-06-08 to 08-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 400-700pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x11 Short closed for +730pts (Average per contract is 66.36). Over target by 33%. Results getting better.
Particular TA approach seems to be sticking(4 weeks). Looking to review target on Short Ftse only.

Ftse x4 Long closed for +215pts (ave 53.75). On target. Particular TA does not seem to be efficient on longs, this has been measured over 4 weeks and over 40 trades.

S&P x5 Short closed for +87.8pts(average is 17.56) Over target by 35%.
Same TA approach was used and has now thrown up some great percentages over target. Still not consistant so target will not be reviewed as yet.

S&P x5 Long close for +62.7pts(ave 12.54) Within target range.
Particular TA approach again has not proved sufficient.

Total for week = 25 contracts closed for +1095.5pts

Over target by 37%. Aided by the Technical analysis which is in place and guided by the discretionary trading style, of course the rally up and slide sown certainly helped and the last time we saw a slide higher than over 3% (to close) was amidst the recession fear on 21st Jan 08 (4.5%).


Next Week target for points is 500-800.

Account is still extremely undertraded and so not expecting too much from the coming week. Looking towards picking up new entrees by month end to get account margin back into a better profitable target area. Next week's target points is slightly higher.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Jun 15, 2008, 9:45am   #11
 
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Week 9th June to 15nd June 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Coming week I will be looking for a firm entry into both target markets but will be on the look out for any drop back to this years lows. From what I see it would seem possible for the ftse to re-test it's lows from 17th March (5415 intraday), If we see this then the next drop down could be as far as 5300 for a test of the lows on 22nd Jan (intraday). If it closes below this figure then it's a huge indication that we are in a bear market. Anything is possible so maximum protection at all times (as usual). It's highly likely that we'll see a bounce off around 5600 and between 5600 and 5700 would be a good entry for Longs.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.

Still waiting for both target markets to give a steady signal before jumping in. For this reason trading will remain discretionary for the coming week.



All trades are listed below for week 09-06-08 to 15-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x6 Long closed for +308pts (ave 51.33). On target.


S&P x5 Long close for +58.7pts(ave 11.74) Just within target range.


Total for week = 11 contracts closed for +366.7pts

Under target by 29%, I was off wednesday for a Bon Jovi concert and for this reason no trades took place so the 134 pts that I'm off I will blame on Jon and the band.
Weeks performance on target - Rubbish
Bon Jovi performance - Excellent


Next Week target for points is 500-800.

Account is still extremely undertraded and so not expecting too much from the coming week. Looking towards picking up new entrees within the week to get account margin back into a better profitable target area. Next week's target points will remain the same.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Jun 21, 2008, 1:51pm   #12
 
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Week 16th June to 22nd June 08

Lee Shepherd started this thread Friday was a difficult day trading as I attended the IX Investor 08 at the ExCeL in London. Although being surrounded by more screens on the markets than you could shake a stick at, I was unaware of why the markets where moving as they did. With PDA in hand I was able to make some conservative entries and am now 100% Long on Ftse 100 and S&P500. Now, heres the fun part: Ftse closed friday at 5620, around the level that was highly expected but areas to be aware of for limit down and stops will be the test of new lows. Limit down will be set in around 5525, theres still room available for the price to go to 5508 for continued show of growth. If we see closes below 5500 then this is the first signal that we are in a bear market and if true wouldn't seem impossible to go to 3500. If in doubt check out 30th Dec '99 6,950 (intraday high) and the 27 months that followed to 12th March '03 for an intraday low of 3277 (53% drop). For some it seems hard to imagine that this market was higher in the last millenium than it has been in this one. Second confirmation would be closes below 5400 then followed by 5300. If this is the case then we say bye to 6000 for a few years. My take as I type is that we will see a bounce monday and close positive for the day and up also on the week.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could','would', 'likely' and 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 16-06-08 to 22-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x6 Long closed for +308pts (ave 51.33). On target.


S&P x2 Long close for +23.7pts(ave 11.85) Just within target range.


Total for week = 8 contracts closed for +331.7pts

Under target by 34%: Reason, Trading difficult Friday as was away from station but have observed and am fully aware that 2 weeks targets have now been missed. Target for next week will remain the same for comparison reasons.

Next Week target for points will be 500-800.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Jul 5, 2008, 10:41am   #13
 
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Joined Feb 2008
23rd June to 29th June 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread POSTED: 5th July 2008 due to house and office move.

As you are aware my partner(Mary) and I moved house (and office) on thurday 19th June and am trading from PDA and temporary trading station and location which does not accommodate the usual setup and time is spent alot on house and new office.

No market comments as market has already moved and anything I would have posted here would now be written in hindsight and therefore be biased to be correct.


All trades are listed below for week 23-06-08 to 29-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x6 Long closed for +246pts (ave 41pts). Off target due to one contract being closed for 1pt. Wrong entry.


S&P x3 Long close for +39.1pts(ave 13.03) Spot on target.


Total for week = 9 contracts closed for +285.1pts

Under target by 43%: Due to house move and the inability to trade full time. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Jul 5, 2008, 11:36am   #14
 
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Joined Feb 2008
30th June to 6th July 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Well the moving of house went smoothly on thurday 19th June but there is some delay with regards to the flooring in the office which is delaying new equipment and setup. Time on this is unsure at present so may have to take some out and take a holiday.

Market Comment:
Ftse has broken down and stayed below 5500, we were looking at and has traded below the 5400 area, this is a signal that we are possibly going to be trading much lower and that the 6000 level may have disappeared for a few years. We will see what happens next week as the close of next week will confirm whether or not this will be low or high probability of much lower lows and much lower highs signalling a bear market that could last for years. To keep the momentum positive we would need to see a positive close above 5500 on the week which is just one days trading range to stay strong.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.


All trades are listed below for week 30-06-08 to 06-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = absolute return

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x8 Long closed for 385+pts (ave 48.12pts). On target.
1xlosing contract has been excluded and is classed as an error, although it still cost me money. Mistakes are not free. Contract was at a lower than normal value so insignificant I feel with regards to the points in comparison to all contract sizes that always remain the same value.

(1xftse contract closed for -4pts(minus): This was bought in error and immediatly closed out.)

S&P x3 Long close for +33.5pts(ave 11.16) Just below target acceptance but nothing to worry about.


Total for week = 11 contracts closed for +418.5pts

Target is absolute return: Due to house move and the inability to trade full time. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Jul 14, 2008, 10:52am   #15
 
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Joined Feb 2008
7th to 13th July 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread The office now has internet and T.V setup but due to delay on furniture which was a direct result of the flooring, trading will not commence fully for coming week. I hope to be back on Skype this coming week but may not answer immediately due to having only one screen until desks arrive due end of next week.

Market Comment:
It's now clear that we are in a bear market and has now been confirmed by these lower trading ranges we are seeing. I would still favour being Long at this point but am keeping a watchful eye on around 5200, past this point I would be currently unclear as to the next move, so, as the saying goes, 'if in doubt, get out, stay out'. I am confident that before 19th Sept (contract expiry for both markets) there will be some write downs currently estimated in the region of 2000 pts. This can and will change on a weekly basis and write offs (usually) happen once every quarter and average to 2 weeks wages (around 1500pts). As write offs are to be expected, and I certainly welcome them, for reasons that they happen and are inevitable, I will keep posting results for potential losses between now and no later than 19th Sept 08 as contracts are written off. We've seen the gains(which is the easy part), now lets see the losses and how they are handled.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.

I've managed to trade from a friends (temporary) setup most of this week but only for around 8 hours a day, past this time has been done on PDA so results for Ftse 100 are better than S&P500 due to working hours which were between 7am and 5pm. (GMT)

All trades are listed below for week 07-07-08 to 13-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = absolute return

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x11 Long closed for +531pts (ave 48.27pts). Within target range.


S&P x3 Long close for +52.5pts(ave 8.75) Missed target by 33% on average per contract.


Total for week = 17 contracts closed for +583.5pts

Target is absolute return: Due to office move and (currently) insufficient setup and the inability to trade full time. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Jul 19, 2008, 2:01pm   #16
 
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Joined Feb 2008
14th to 20th July 2008

Lee Shepherd started this thread Office furniture is due to arrive this coming week so am looking to resume full access trading the week after.

Market Comment:
Ftse did not break my support limit of 5000, This occurred on 16th Wed (intraday low 5067)and since has seen a slight recovery for which is a small signal that we have confirmed a bottom. Lets not forget we are still in a bear market which is now over one year. History would tell us that seeing a bottom would be very likely. It would also appear we have a possible top on oil at just below $150. Lower oil along with lower commodities will help stem inflation to which will give the BOE some room to cut interest rates if necessary to steady GDP growth, although, lower interest rates = lower pound = higher cost on imports = higher inflation. Tough times follow. Banks around the globe also appear to have hit a possible bottom giving a well earned boost to the financial sector here in the U.K ending the week higher by over 11% but still down on a 1 year period by over 40%. Weak signal for Longs more so than Shorts but a signal it is. If not in trades already would be looking for more support to be found in 5500 area to confirm a stronger bottom. Would be looking for some bounces downward to confirm the (possible) bottom before getting back in the 5500 trading area. Trading will remain difficult and although I have carried out many simulations involving similar situations and time periods, I have not had the pleasure in trading this one live and in full time. This is my first live time trading in a bear market. Lets see how I fare.
S&P: How are we handling the losses:
This hit a critical support area for me this week on Tues 15th when it touched 1200. Partly expecting this and working quick and pre-emptively I closed 5 contracts on sunday night to which was a long night and day into monday 14th at the 1250 area for 4 losses of 113.4pts and 1 gain of 4.5pts, again closed a further 3 on Tuesday 15th for 3 losses at 279pts at around the 1215 area. Wednesday gave a great boost followed by the days after to close up on the week, this was aided by the bank reports coming in stronger than expected. Further right downs in this market is on hold until further notice.
Hindsight: What an unexciting world I would live in if I could see the future, it would seem that if I had of held onto the contracts they would have bounced back, however, I dont trade in hope, I trade what I see and on possibilities. The earlier part of the week the banking sector could have came in far worse than expected driving the S&P well below 1200, Mr Bernanke could have said the economy was fine and thus (at least) steadying the oil market if not driving it upward. Limit down is in place until further notice so no more contracts will be bought until a stronger confirmation is giving that we have found a bottom. Conflicting times remain.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.


All trades are listed below for week 14-07-08 to 20-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = (minus) pts. with limit down in place until further notice. (write offs as explained in last weeks blog)
Weekly target = absolute return

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x7 Long closed for +311pts (ave 44.42pts). Out of range by 11.2%. A little concern got my finger a little nervous so some contracts where sold slightly short of target. Am now trading with the left hand.


S&P x10 Long closed for -582.2pts MINUS (ave -58.22) Out of target by -548% wow. Although to be expected as writeoffs where imminent as per last weeks blog.


Total for week = 17 contracts closed for -271.2pts (MINUS)

Target is absolute return: Due to office move and (currently) insufficient setup and the inability to trade fully with multi screen. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd
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