Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary

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Old Jun 2, 2018, 4:35pm   #181
FXX
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Lee

That link doesn't seem to work. Tried on Tapatalk and a browser and the site says page not found. Could you please check if its right thanks. Looking forward to asking you a few questions and hopeful a review of my process.

Thanks



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Old Jun 2, 2018, 4:41pm   #182
 
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Lee

That link doesn't seem to work. Tried on Tapatalk and a browser and the site says page not found. Could you please check if its right thanks. Looking forward to asking you a few questions and hopeful a review of my process.

Thanks



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Sorry mate. My fault. Try the link in my signature or for simplicity sakes from your phone, click here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...-any-help.html

Lee
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 11:38am   #183
 
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Lee Shepherd started this thread Just a quick update with screenshot. Nothing much to report other than a new position added. I now have 6 sets of trades to monitor so times are a little pushed, hence the quietness on the board.

If anyone has any questions that they feel will help them with their trading, please post to the help link in my signature (2nd link), I'll do my best to answer anything genuine without prejudice or negative criticism.(although cannot always guarantee that).

Trade 1:+£220.00
Trade 2:+£30.00
Trade 3:+£897.00
Trade 4:+£10,423.00
Trade 5:-£7,449.00
Trade 6:-£910.50 (New positions/trade)

Total showing on account = +£3,210.50

Roll on the weekend.

Wishing all a happy day trading.

Lee
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 8:53am   #184
 
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Swing update

Lee Shepherd started this thread Just a quick post to update on the movement on the account.

The amount from around 21 hours ago have swung by over £7,000.00

Trade 1:-£330.00 (movement of £550.00)
Trade 2:-£365.00 (movement of £395.00)
Trade 3:+£366.00 (movement of £531.00)
Trade 4:+£6,979.00 (movement of £3,444.00)
Trade 5:-£9,231.00 (movement of £1,782.00)
Trade 6:-£1,456.50 (movement of £546.00)

Total showing on account = -£4,037.50

Swing of £7,248.00 (in less than 1 day)

As can be seen, trades 4 and 5 are where the higher risk is at.

Have a great Friday,

Lee
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 9:13am   #185
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Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
Just a quick post to update on the movement on the account.

The amount from around 21 hours ago have swung by over £7,000.00

Trade 1:-£330.00 (movement of £550.00)
Trade 2:-£365.00 (movement of £395.00)
Trade 3:+£366.00 (movement of £531.00)
Trade 4:+£6,979.00 (movement of £3,444.00)
Trade 5:-£9,231.00 (movement of £1,782.00)
Trade 6:-£1,456.50 (movement of £546.00)

Total showing on account = -£4,037.50

Swing of £7,248.00 (in less than 1 day)

As can be seen, trades 4 and 5 are where the higher risk is at.

Have a great Friday,

Lee
You think it has something to do with central banks this week? That sort of swing would make some people green in the face.

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Old Jun 21, 2018, 8:23pm   #186
 
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Lee Shepherd started this thread Update on the movement on the account - plus get ready for some big moves over the next couple of weeks - expected in the region of £15-30k

The amount difference from June 15th 2018

Trade 1:-£1,180.00 (movement of £850.00)
Trade 2:+£505.00 (movement of £870.00)
Trade 3:-£147.00 (movement of £513.00)
Trade 4:+£5,299.00 (movement of £1,680.00)
Trade 5:+£36.00 (movement of £9,267.00)
Trade 6:-£3,195.00 (movement of £1,738.50)

Total showing on account = +£1,318.00

Swing of £14,918.50 (in less than 7 days or 5 working days)

Trades 4 and 5 are where the higher risk is at - Trade 5 in particular is the one to watch over the coming weeks and will be the big hitter - for better or worse.
Trades 1,2,3 and 6 are low risk and expected movement is in the hundreds or estimated to be less than £1k per day per trade.
Trades 4 & 5 are expected to range around £3-5k and £7-15k respectively per day per trade.

Friday tomorrow so I wish all the best for the last day of the week trading and roll on the weekend for fun, games and relaxation.


Lee
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Old Jun 21, 2018, 9:31pm   #187
 
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Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
Update on the movement on the account - plus get ready for some big moves over the next couple of weeks - expected in the region of £15-30k

The amount difference from June 15th 2018

Trade 1:-£1,180.00 (movement of £850.00)
Trade 2:+£505.00 (movement of £870.00)
Trade 3:-£147.00 (movement of £513.00)
Trade 4:+£5,299.00 (movement of £1,680.00)
Trade 5:+£36.00 (movement of £9,267.00)
Trade 6:-£3,195.00 (movement of £1,738.50)

Total showing on account = +£1,318.00

Swing of £14,918.50 (in less than 7 days or 5 working days)

Trades 4 and 5 are where the higher risk is at - Trade 5 in particular is the one to watch over the coming weeks and will be the big hitter - for better or worse.
Trades 1,2,3 and 6 are low risk and expected movement is in the hundreds or estimated to be less than £1k per day per trade.
Trades 4 & 5 are expected to range around £3-5k and £7-15k respectively per day per trade.

Friday tomorrow so I wish all the best for the last day of the week trading and roll on the weekend for fun, games and relaxation.


Lee
Confirms why I could never have done this for a living. Iím a nervous wreck tracking these trades and they are not even mine!! Bon voyage mon brave.
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Old Jun 21, 2018, 10:20pm   #188
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Confirms why I could never have done this for a living. Iím a nervous wreck tracking these trades and they are not even mine!! Bon voyage mon brave.
hi barjon

what about this would make you a nervous wreck. given that risk is factored into every trade and the trade sized according to the account size, this should be business as usual if its £1 per pip or £100. are you concerned about a losing streak?
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Old Jun 21, 2018, 11:00pm   #189
 
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hi barjon

what about this would make you a nervous wreck. given that risk is factored into every trade and the trade sized according to the account size, this should be business as usual if its £1 per pip or £100. are you concerned about a losing streak?
Absolutely. Trouble is that I can see it through at the £1pp but not the £100pp. I know it should be business as usual but whenever Iíve upped the ante significantly Iíve come a cropper. Learned long ago that I havenít the balls for it.
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Old Jun 22, 2018, 12:14am   #190
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Absolutely. Trouble is that I can see it through at the £1pp but not the £100pp. I know it should be business as usual but whenever I’ve upped the ante significantly I’ve come a cropper. Learned long ago that I haven’t the balls for it.
i may be wrong here and maybe Lee could shed some light on this. my understanding is technical based strategies are prone to losing streaks. its always a case of you not knowing if any given trade will be a success of failure and you have to take it. when i started this journey and looked at technical trading ,the first thing i discovered was how it was impossible to predict the formation of a chart setup in real-time. i moved onto support based setups and a similar outcome of not knowing when it was a legitimate move. breakouts or fades were all the same basically an educated guess based on historical price.

its only when i started looking at the market from a driver perspective which i didn't figure out on my own, i was informed by institutional traders i worked in close proximity with. i am still in early stages of my journey with just over a year under my belt and what i am discovering is when i trade fundamental events, it is a remarkably different outcome. instead of basing a trade off an estimated guess i am getting into the market as it is repricing new information. i am finding the better i get at it the greater the quality of trades.

unsurprisingly the greatest failures in my trading are mistakes based on trading outside an event. i either get in after sentiment has waned or on a bad technical level or a bit of both. if i remove this element of my trading i am getting a very high success rate. i know its still early days but i have to admit it is like chalk and cheese compared with the guesstimate profile of technical trading. one thing that appears to be absent is losing streaks. i think this is down to the fact that i am not employing rigid profiles defining a technical setup. each trade is based on new information that needs to be priced in.

what i am getting at with this is a suggestion to add fundamentals as a means to filter out what would otherwise be dud trades with a grouping probability towards losing streaks. there is even a losing streak formula

natural logarithm * number of trials / natural logarithm * probability

so if we take a 50% hit rate ( roughly average for a technical system ) over 50 trades you have a mathematical probability of 6 consecutive losers.a trader will need to accommodate this into their trading plan but if you consider living off trading, you will need a very large account to absorb it and still fund your life. if you do have a large account it is likely going to stagnate due to these losing streaks. lets say you manage 5 percent a month (a very good rate of return), a losing streak sets you back 10 percent or there about. now you have effectively lost 2 months income. given these losing streaks are unpredictable when they come. it is fair to assume you could have 2 or more a year depending on your trading volume. just 2 of these streaks and you will spend the rest of the year making back what you lost giving the account no real growth over a year, and you still need to withdraw money to live.

no wonder so few make it. of course i could be speaking b0110cks but how else can it be explained.

Last edited by FXX; Jun 22, 2018 at 12:48am.
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Old Jun 22, 2018, 10:14am   #191
 
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Lee Shepherd started this thread @barjon - as per the rep - I used to get sweaty palms when I first started out, and that was on a smaller account. Still, had to have the do or die attitude or as you've aptly put it 'having the balls'. I like your quote.

@FXX - let me first attack you on this line - you're strong, I know you can handle it

'impossible to predict the formation of a chart setup in real-time' - see above post for context.

So, impossibble is not a word that resonates with me, however, I do appreciate that many use this word in their lives on a regular basis. My advice, don't use it. It doesn't exist.

Secondly, the word 'predict'.
I hear so many wannabe people who use the word predict in a way usually within a sentence containing the word implossible. Prediction is just that, and in fact what every trader in the world uses. Even the weather person makes a forecast/prediction but based on highly likely and studied events with the best equipment and up to the minute updates. Prediction is another word for guess, whether that be an educated one or not is irrelevant.

For example, and forgive me if this goes on a bit, maybe best left for the pub but I'll try and put it in simple terms.

I predict a bus is going to crash through my office wall today.
It is just a prediction but is it likely, more to the point is it first, possible then is it probable.

So we use these two words only to make a prediction, possibility followed by probability.

Am I on a bus route, if so, how many busses pass on a daily basis, how many crashes have come before ect etc. In fact you'd be better off betting against me (assuming no insider trading/knowledge) that a bus would not crash through my office wall today. Although a possibility, it is however unlikely and therefor not probable.

I heard it best explained like this:

It is impossibbble for me to win the lottery this week as I have not bought a ticket.
So, I buy 1 ticket and the possibility of me winning is now 100%, ie, I can now win the lottery. I have now changed the outcome from definitely not winning the lottery to a 100% possible chance of winning the lottery, but, it is unlikely.

In fact I think the odds run in several millions to 1.

So, I now buy several million tickets, the possibility of me winning the lottery remains at 100% possible, whereas if I had no tickets would be 100% not possible. But, again, with having several million tickets, the chances of me winning (probability) goes up immensely. This is probability and possibility.

If I buy all the combinations of numbers I will definitely win the lottery 100% guaranteed. But of course this would not make financial sense, but nonetheless I would win.

If I do not trade today, I will not lose money, I also will not make any and therefore I have put myself in the same position I found myself yesterday and tomorrow will also be the same. To change tomorrow, I have to change today (now).

Keeping in line with TA and FA (Technical and Fundamental analysis), of course every trader needs to have at least a basic understanding of economics and micro and macro factors, even if one doesn't understand them or know how they work, can at the least stay away from big FA breaks. This helps prevent moving averages (MA's) being skewed without understanding or caught out whilst in a trade - whipsawed.

I don't know how electric works but I know not to stick my fingers in the plug sockets. So I just flick the switch and see the light - and yes that line is polysemantic.

Its quite a lengthy conversation and for the sake of the journal would prefer to discuss (if you so wish) on another thread - or at the pub, or if I may suggest my second link below which covers all topics to help others and ourselves learn more.

Therefore please reply or discuss here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...y-help-11.html

Good luck all,

Lee
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Old Jun 22, 2018, 10:44am   #192
 
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You simply have to choose a high vol instrument, forget high £pp.... mugs game in the end, a bit like paying someone to show you "signals" jeeeesus !!!..... now who would do a silly thing like that & hand over hard earned cash to some stranger (who's probably a bit of a fiddler as well) anyhooo sounds liken ol Lee's a bit of a wiz at this, I used to turn over about about £4,000 per day with pretty high £pp, made a bit, lost a bit.......made a bit..........yadda yadda

but in the end I couldn't bother my **** with the loss of life to be honest mate.......sooooooooo many better ways to trade
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Old Jun 22, 2018, 3:56pm   #193
 
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Lee Shepherd started this thread Update on the movement on the account before the party begins - not quite the move I was expecting and has been a lot slower than normal for me today. Although only half a day - knocking off very soon

The amount difference from Yesterday (21st June 2018 @ 20:23):

Trade 1:-£630.00 (movement of £550.00)
Trade 2:+£380.00 (movement of £125.00)
Trade 3:+£105.00 (movement of £252.00)
Trade 4:+£7,567.00 (movement of £2,268.00)
Trade 5:+£2,736.00 (movement of £2,700.00)
Trade 6:-£2,329.00 (movement of £846.00)

Total showing on account = +£7,784.00

Swing of £6,466.00 (in less 20 hours)


Have a good weekend,


Lee
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Old Jun 22, 2018, 9:34pm   #194
 
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unsurprisingly the greatest failures in my trading are mistakes based on trading outside an event. i either get in after sentiment has waned or on a bad technical level or a bit of both. ld be speaking b0110cks but how else can it be explained.
an ideawait for the event and hope that the market rises-if it starts changing direction and going back down get in as something has changed.
eg
21.6.18 dow ended at 24,000
22nd-dow moves up 100 points after news but then falls and hits 24000 again-short here as you are now in the trend.just a monkey brained idea but worth a try.
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i'm lying for the attention
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reloading another "K" next week.
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you don't really have an orange juice position do you?
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Old Jun 27, 2018, 10:05am   #195
 
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Lee Shepherd started this thread UPDATE:

Have closed out some positions as from yesterday banking £7,399.00 over 12 trades. Screenshot attached. Portfolio is now obviously reflecting these banked trades and therefore the amount showing on account stands at -£5,581.00.

I am expecting a large swing later today so will post another screenshot this evening if this happens. If it's quiet then obviously no need to update.

Lee
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