TriedItAll's Blog

EOD Index Spreadbetting

Hello,

Well, as my username suggests, I have 'trieditall' over the last 10 years and have had my successes in a number of different trading methods. I usually manage to increase my bank two or three fold within a swift 4 to 6 weeks before I make a ridiculous assessment of the markets and step way outside my trading limits and risk control rules to see it all come tumbling down again. A recent experience is described in my website

Well, I am back, I have a simple method which is high probability. In year gone by the risk levels would have been too great...... but after recent experiences I can stomach having a stop in place 150 points or so out now and know that probability and volatility are on my side.

So, I ‘spose my trading method is envelope trading and relies on volatility breakouts and seems to be working well. I will post all trades here for both my own record and for wider discussion.



All the best.
TriedItAll

EOD Index Results to Date

Trades Results Since Start Using This Method - 27 August 2007

27 August 07
To close Sell 1 Wall Street Rolling Daily at 13348
+£44

28 August 07
To close Sell 2 DAX 30 Rolling Daily at 7456
-£146

29 August 07
To close Buy 1 FTSE Rolling Daily at 6131
+£48

31 August 07
To close Sell 1 French CAC 40 September at 5663
+£84

3 Septemer 07
To close Sell 1 FTSE Rolling Daily at 6317
+£80

4 September 07
To close Buy 1 DAX 30 Rolling Daily at 7674
-£51

4 September 07
To close Buy 1 FTSE Rolling Daily at 6334
-£37

4 September 07
To close Sell 1 Wall Street Rolling Daily at 13464
+£35

4 September 07
To close Sell 1 DAX 30 Rolling Daily at 7740
+£63

4 September 07
To close Sell 1 FTSE Rolling Daily at 6388
+£51

Net +£171 in 6 days of trading or 8.5% return

All in all, my approach is going well. I am managing to maintain my discipline, as you will see on http://www.tradingtraps.com, this is my real problem. I have made money end of day share trading (results on www.tradingtraps.com), I have made considerable money intraday trading the DJIA using Trix and Trin and trend following (easy) once you get the feel for it with a real live chart feed, and now I am EOD Index trading again with a system that works, but also hopefully this time also the discipline to stick to the rules.........

Rgds,
TriedItAll

Sorry if I'm being a bit thick but
Please could you explain, for instance
1.do you mean you have bought 1 unit at the open and will hold it to the end of the session ?
2. your entry for 4/9/07 states you have bought 1 unit FTSE AND sold 1 unit of FTSE. Or is this a typo ?

Feedback and 5 September Update on Positions

Hello,

Thanks for the comments.

To clarify Pat's queries on my results to date page:

Pat said:
Sorry if I'm being a bit thick but Please could you explain, for instance 1.do you mean you have bought 1 unit at the open and will hold it to the end of the session ? 2. your entry for 4/9/07 states you have bought 1 unit FTSE AND sold 1 unit of FTSE. Or is this a typo ?

In response:
1) When I state To close Sell 1, I have opened the position by buying the index at £1 per point, I then sell £1/point to close the position - spreadbetting lingo. Hope that is clearer.

2) 4/9/07 entry - no typo, on the 4th I got triggered both short and long at different times of the day on the FTSE and DAX. The first two short positions were stopped out for losses. The second two long positions where then more profitable then the losses so all up, a positive result for the day. At the end of the session, I assess where the DJIA is as this is somewhat of an indicator it would appear to the next days Europe market directions. If the DJIA ends strong and the close is at or near the extrimity, I will place a stop just below the intraday 10 minute high or low previous - gives the position some room and also locks in profit if the Europe indexes don't follow the DJIA from the previous close - which I have found out before - take the 'traders brainteaser test' on and you will see what I mean.

Results for 5/9/07
One trade was entered today after a setup day on the DJIA presented itself yesterday. The position is a sell of £1/point (short 1) on the DJIA and at the end of the session is in the red by £44 but the position is still open with a close stop in place. If the FTSE/DAX open up tomorrow, the DJIA spread price will rise ahead of the DJIA open and I will get stopped out. If the Europe markets fall further tomorrow, the DJIA spread price will fall, hopefully bringing the position back into the black or breakevan and ready for another falling day on the DJIA hopefully. Lets see what unfolds. It looks like there has been a pivot or swing/reversal back to the south.

Discipline is going well. There was a large drop on the DJIA today, but I managed to stay away from jumping in on the trend with daytrading. Not a good strategy. when you jump in on a trend without a planned trade....... Invariably you get in at the end of the move and it turns around on you for a bitter loss!!

So looking forward to what tomorrow may bring. It is amazing how much volatility there is in the markets. 90 points up on the DJIA yesterday and 150 points down today! But higher highs are being made on the daily chart too. What happens from here - will the new high of yesterday be broken or will the market head south past the new higher low just above 13000??? We shall see.... Good trading.

Rgds,
TriedItAll

EOD Indexes - Market Flips and Trade Updates

Well, following on from yesterdays log and the discussion on how volatile the markets are certainly shone through again today. It seems the DJIA is not happy unless it flips 150 point in the opposite direction each day from that of the previous.

So my DJIA short trade of the 5th which I held open with a stop was stopped out for a loss of £105. That is fine, all going to the programme and discipline is strong. Them rules, they are there for a reason. And although the position was stopped out for a loss, the fact that it was in accordance with the game plan is fine. It was interesting to note that the Europe markets did indeed drop lower this morning as suspected against the DJIA yesterday (see my previous log), but I did not move the stop down accordingly.

Incidently and as an aside, given that one of my hoby horses with my trading is mental fitness, (http://www.tradingtraps.com) and the fact that I believe people who win at trading have mental attributes that allow them to have the resolve to suceed in the game, I was interested to read in this weeks Time magazine the article 'How We Get Addicted' and what the implications are - there was nothing mentioned about trading specifically but it did relate to alcoholism, drug addition and gambling. I personally have somewhat of 'OC' personality making it difficult to not trade as I am passionate about it, and I believe that I can be successful at it (blind ignorance I don't know!), but it made me wonder, am I passionate about the trading..... or am I passionate about the addiction to the feeling I get when I am practicing it????? The article said 'Addiction are repetitive behaviours in the face of negative consequences, the desire to continue something you know is bad for you'. They have now pinpointed what happens in an addict's brain which results in among other things, blocking of cognition, so the ability to make sensible decisions are lead by chemicals which result in a buz rather than a rational decission..... mmmmmmm, makes you ponder! Awareness, I wonder, can rationalisation of decisions lead to better trading. I definately think so. Harder to do in practice though, why only 1 in 20 of us can actually win at this game.

Moving on.

Lesson to note though - had I put my stop directly above the closing priceof the DJIA yesterday rather than give it the space I did, my loss would have been £44 in accordance with my system development analysis. I let it out wider and consequently the loss was larger. Note to ones self, all stops from now on will be directly near the closing price for open positions. If there is a huge gap open the next day in a favourable direction to my position, brilliant. If not and I get stopped out, then the loss is in accordance with my system analysis - which is based on determing the profits and losses for entry on breakouts and result calculated on closing price.The tight stops theory should allow profits to run and close out otherwise without larger losses like the one incured today.

6 day trading return reduced to +£70. The bigger picture is the concern. Having a trading plan and sticking to it. I know the system works, the key is can my head keep to the rules........

I have just checked the major indexes and there is only one setup for tomorrow. I have two orders set on the CAC September future, 1 to buy and 1 to sell. I don't know which way the market will go and I don't care. The setup is mechanical and stops are also in place. All I have to do is see the result at the end of the day........ The beauty of having a system that allows you to step away from the computer and resist meddling.

Accountability and responsibility, the true Holy Grails of trading in my eyes.

Rgds,
TriedItAll

EOD Results and Positions

Another week just around the corner and the markets continue to look volatile. Currently I am short £1/point on the CAC September. I missed an entry bar on the DJIA on Thursday night for the DJIA which I am dissapointed about, but I will endeavour not to less this effect my emotions. Be happy whith what did occur, I did manage to have an order triggered on the CAC because the DJIA fell so much so that is fair, though I missed out on £120 profit on the DJIA. Fear and Greed - do not let these emotions control ones trading.

Current results can be seen here:


Saturday morning I had some time to do some back testing of my EOD Index system. For August, the results where:

FTSE: 600 points net gain or at £1/pnt:
£600 net gain, £110 max drawdown, 8 wins and 3 losses

DJIA: 790 points net gain or at £1/pnt:
£790 net gain, £110 max drawdown, 7 wins and 2 losses

This performance continues back in time which is nice. I also did some back testing on random months in years gone by with similar results, so I am happy that I have a robust system that suits my personality, has a high win/loss ratio and did not have a losing month in any of those back tested. So, given that I can continue to trade it with discipline and not blow it all based on an out of control EGO!!! then all should be good.

I have my system in place. I have my trading plan in place. I am making mechanical decissions on my rules without making adjustments based on feeling I can't go wrong....

I read an interesting article in last weeks Time magazine on Warren Buffet in 'The Business' magazine. Buffet is looking for new recruits to fill his position in the event of death and he makes some interesting comments: 'A single, big mistake could wipe out a long string of successes. We therefore need someone genetically programmed to recognise and avoid serious risks' including those never before encountered. Certain peils that lurk in investment strategies cannot be spotted by use of the models commonly employed today by financial institutions.' Not a wiser word spoken in my limited experiance as a trader. In my case, the great unknowns come from within. What will me inner mind deal my up next time in the guise of a great idea how to increase the performance of my trading. It is also interesting to note that Buffet is looking for someone who is knowing of the unknown - something he himself has managed to do in his investment career quite well.

Rgds and God Trading,
TriedItAll

8% Gain Today

So the week has begun, the markets are as jitery as ever and my discipline is holding up well. I am trading the plan and sticking to a strong and dedicated emotional state to my trading. I will suceed. My emotions are under control and the EOD Index breakout system I am trading continues to hold up well. I have no reason to change the system. I will not try to change or improve it.

Results can be seen at:


My CAC position of Friday afternoon was stopped out for a gain of £48 yesterday.

And today was a brilliant day to be on the indexes. My system does not need to know which direction the markets will go. It allows me to enter in either direction. I went to log in to my SB account last night to check the charts for today and no luck. So, a quick check of the 4 index charts I trade at 6:45 this morning indicated entry setups on the CAC, the DJIA, the DAX and the FTSE for today. I placed the orders in the market to enter on breakout with stops and logged out.

I kept an eye on the markets during the day. The benefit of 3G data services on your phone and Yahoo finance. I was in a meeting from 10:00 till 4:00 and got back to the office around 4:30. Upon login to my account I was pleased to see 4 open positions on all 4 indexes - two of which were in loss at the time but only small, 24 down on one and 7 on the other. It did not take long for the DJIA to pick up momentum and pull all prices up for me. So, at the end of the day, I was pleased to close all positions for a nice little gain of £183. Positions are closed and tomorrow is a new day. The outcome of today was a nice return of 8% on my bank.

Trade the plan, keep the thoughts clear, do not make irrational decisions. Do not let the traps of trading bite again

A quick scan of the Index charts for tomorrow and I have spotted setup days on the DAX and the CAC according to my system rules, so the orders are in on both of these Indexes for possible entry tomorrow. Lets wait and see.

Rgds,
TriedItAll

Tomorrow - Markets WILL surge

Mark my words Guys and Gals, the markets on the 13th of September will surge. I don't know which way yet, and with my trading method, it doesn't matter. US job figures are released tomorrow at 13:30 BST and given the relatively small movement in markets today, in most cases, indexes closing at or near where they closed yesterday. This gives a clear indication that no one knows which direction the market is headed and won't do until the results from the job figures comes out tomorrow. At that point I think we can expect to see HUGE movements. Only my own HUMBLE opionions of course but I suspect tomorrow will be a choppy ride and possibly back to the south if unemployment levels have increased above exected levels.

I had two sets of orders in today - the DAX and the CAC. The DAX was no trigered. The CAC closed for a small gain of 13 points. No complaints from me. It all adds to the pot.

Results can be viewed here:



So checking the index charts this evening and I have determined setups in line with my rules for all 4 indexes - the FTSE, the DAX, the CAC and the DJIA. I have placed my orders in and will follow with interested what happens in the markets tomorrow. I will have a relatively high level of exposure with 4 sets of orders in, so if it goes pearshaped for me, then it will hurt. But I know what my total exposure is and am relative happy with that and given that the DJIA opens after the job data release, the market direction (I am hoping is all unidirectional!!!). We shall see.

I feel that I have to go on record as saying that I have an exceptionally high level of exposure on the markets tomorrow. If the markets head north early and then change direction and head significantly south later, I could be up for losses in the order of £400. This equates to around 18% of my capital. That is a lot! I am having a mental challenge at the moment - I know I should reduce my risk levels, I also feel that I don't want to miss out on the opportunity - here is a perfect example of fear and greed working. My gut feel the risk level will not be as high as £400 BUT if you have read Warren Buffets comments in an earlier entry, you will know this is exactly what he expects to happen and is prepared for it when it does....... This would wipe out my gains to date. Just check the overall risk again if 4 off trades are entered - £350 exposure. £100 of which is the DJIA which opens after the volatile time of the release of the USA job data reducing total exposure to £250. I am comfortable to accept this level of risk and I will monitor the markets during the day. I have a plan. Just thinking exposure could be higher if the very worst case occured where the markets when up, turned around, stopped me out and then turned around again and completely retraced, this would double the £250 exposure. I am happy that the probablility of this occuring on all 4 indexes is extremely low and am willing to accept this risk. Lets see if this judgment is acceptable or not. Thinking about it, probably not rational.
Good trading.

Rgds,
TriedItAll

Surge they did!!! 11% Up Today

Well, it is nice to look at yesterdays entry and see the markets pan out just as I expected.



All four of my orders were entered automatically while I was at work. I kept an eye on where the markets were heading before during and after the release of the jobless figures and after the DJIA opened. All looking good. After 2 minutes of opening, the DJIA was up 90 points. I was presenting at an internal forum this afternoon in our head office in Croydon so was away from where the markets were for 4 hours. On the way back to the station, I checked my phone to see where the markets were and HORROR!!! My phone battery was dead. Talk about FEAR gripping. So I had to draw myself out of the fearful mindset of not knowing if the DJIA had dipped in the afternoon and slaughtered all of my other positions with it. I got my first glimpse of the markets at 6:30pm and to my glee, the DJIA was up 180 points. I took the opportunity to put some intraday stops in place under the last highest low as there was a degree of flattening occuring in the markets - a top was iminent. 5 minutes later the DJIA dived 40 points so I was happy to be stopped out at near the peak for the day. So a cracking day. 180 points profit across the four indexes and a nice 11% gain on bank for the day. So, in not quite three weeks, my net gains are at 30%.

I am finding this blogging approach to be an important part of maintaining discipline, a means of letting off the steam of having a good trading day without blagging to friends who never really want to hear you brag about such stuff. I feel mentally fit and strong. I can and will succeed at making a second income from my trading. That is my pledge to myself.



Just checked the closed market charts and no setup conditions for tomorrow.

All the best with your trading.

Rgds,
TriedItAll

Orders for Monday

A quick update. 4 orders put in place for Monday of this week coming. The DJIA, the CAC, the DAX and the FTSE.

Rgds,
TriedItAll.

Tomorrow will be CHOPPY!!

Well, what an interesting day on the markets. The Indexes where up and down like yo-yos again.

I placed 4 orders last night and cancelled one in the end - the CAC (Oct Future) because it's close was very near to the high and had the potentional for being entered one way and stopped out at the other end and re-entered again. Funnily enough, the CAC dropped straight from its open and continued to drop a further 100 points. Had I placed the orders on the CAC, this would have been the most profitable!!! Ahh well, win some lose some.

Trade Results Table and Equity Chart can be viewed on my forum entry at:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=357520#post357520

So, of the orders I did place - the DAX, the FTSE and the DJIA, there was some interesting movement. The FTSE ended with a small profit of £18 at the end or the day. The DAX was like a tornado today. It fell in line with the FTSE this morning and I was entered short on both the FTSE and the DAX. By lunch time, the DAX had swung back above yesterdays high and I was stopped out and entered long. It then swung back to the south with the DJIA once it had opened. So, I had two losses on the DAX - one of £78 and another of £31. My DJIA orders were not entered and have since been cancelled for a fresh start tomorrow.

So all up for the day, the result was a net loss of £91. That brings the net performance of my portfolio back to 24% gain in 3 weeks and a day. Still a pleasing result.

My discpline is holding well. I have not had any desires to throw huge EGO driven orders at the market expecting that I know what it is going to do which is good. I am learning not to be tempted by the markets, rather live with them day by day and get on with normal life. This is important in ensuring that rash decissions are not made I am finding.

Well, I expect tomorrow to be another huge day of moves on the market. Todays markets were once again held in suspence, falling dramatically then picking up again to end near previous closes at least on the DJIA with an inside day forming and the close near the close of yesterday. And with the FEDs release tomorrow, I am expecting large moves out of the blocks come tomorrow afternoon. I have placed orders after reviewing the charts as setups are notable on the DJIA and the DAX. I am concerned about the DAX as it was an outside day today but should be ok. I am expecting the biggest move on the DJIA. If the FED drops interest rates than there may be some general move to the upside but if they decide not to drop rates, then I am expecting an extreme ride south. My orders are in place and I do not care which way the market moves as long as it moves in one direction consistantly for the day. Bring it on. Show time might be just around the corner.

BTW, I am still short the FTSE from today. I have moved my stop down right to above the last 10minute intraday high so if it heads up in the morning, I get stopped out for a small profit, if it continues down, I will be already on for the ride.

Looking forward to tomorrows installments and hopefully some big profits for the day.

Rgds,
TriedItAll

I'm on the WAVE!! Up 11% today.

Well, Yesterday I said it was going to be CHOPPY. It has been more than that. The DOW is now up 315 for the day........

View results at:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=357864&posted=1#post357864

And talk about seeing a grown man cry.... I checked my orders at 3:50pm today. The DJIA, the DAX and the FTSE were all up 100 points evan before the FED had released any news, but expectations were that it would obviously lower rates. My DAX order was triggered and was in profit by £45. My DJIA order should have been triggered but wasn't!!! WHAT WAS WRONG..... NOOOOOO! I checked the order and oh no.... I had put it in at 134453 instead of 13453. So I was faced with a dilema. Jump on while the DJIA was up at 13498 and lose lots if the FED doesn't lower rates deciding to stick it out and leave things. Well, I decided to put a new order in above the intraday high of 13511. This proved to be a useful strategy as the DJIA broke out to the upside at 7:15 and a few seconds. I am now on the train to Manchester from London for work. I managed to get a signal on my mobile long enough to log in and get access to this blog and my spreadbet account and low and behold. AGHHHHHHHHH, no DJIA position open. I called CS and my order had just been opened at 13658. A whole 200 points above where my original order should have been placed last night.. So, a few sighs and frowns over the efect that the greedy feelings I was having and I touch base with CS broking desk. They indicate that the markets gapped after the FED announcment. This is one of the problems with spread betting. Their
gaps appear to be far larger than you would experiance on the Futures markets. So I indicate to them that my order was placed as a stop to open at 13511. I get a message back indicating a good will gesture of the order entry being reduced to 13611 from 13658. Some 100 points above my stop entry order. I AM YET TO CHECK THE CS TICK CHARTS TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE CHARTS DID TICK AFTER THE FED ANNOUNCMENTS - DID IT REALLY TICK UP 100 POINTS WITHIN SECONDS???? Anyway, I shouldnt grumble. I should be and am thankful for the position that I do now find myself in with the markets just about to close. My open positions are up £231 and my account has been credited £48 in good will. Not bad for 2 orders at £1/point on the DAX and the DJIA. Total gain for the day of 11% for the day. Some people wait all year to make 6% in a bank account where they can't even touch their own money.

So I am somewhat calmer, but just a little dissapointed at my STUPID mistake of last night with the extra digit in my order. HAD I got that right I would have been up 16% for the day...... That mistake cost me another £160 profit on my acutal profit of £279 for the day.

Musnt grumble, musnt grumble, musnt grumble. Be positive. And thankful. Thankful I am.

Positive from today - note to oneself - check and double check all orders once they are entered. It is one thing to have a system that works, it is another thing to be dilligent and effective in implementing. This requires perfection. Silly mistakes take away from what successes one can make and be.

I hope your trading day was a success too.

Best rgds and good trading,
TriedItAll

Thank you very much!

So the markets continued higher today. After yesterdays mass rally there was no setups for me but I had left by DAX position open on the basis that given the DJIA had leapt ahead and the DAX SB price had followed strongly and that I anticipated it would continue on the cash markets the following day, I moved my stop up as close as possible and plucked another 50 points (£50 profit for me at £1/point) out of the DAX today after it also rallied higher on the cash market today on the back of the DJIA. Low and behold, the DJIA managed to defy gravity and my expectation and continue to rise another 100 points intraday today before lowering back to 76 + for the day. Well well well.

So, results for the month are looking good. Up 40% in 10 days of trading for the month.
View results update at:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=358143#post358143

I am not able to view my CS charts via mobile phone 3G log in unfortunatley so I cant determine if there are any setups for tomorrow though I expect there is.

Rgds,
TriedItAll

Inside day all round

A very quite day on the markets today. I had 1 order out of 4 triggered. This was the CAC which entered short was stopped out and also entered long and was stopped out. Both for a loss of £22 each. So net loss of £44 for the day. 38% net gain for the month with one trading day left in my 4 week trading cycle for the purpose of my records.

See results at:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=358416&posted=1#post358416

I am expecting some higher volatility tomorrow and therefor some orders to be entered. There does not seem to be much directions in the market at the moment. We seem to be at the top of a rising chanel on most indexes. Whether there is enough momentum to carry this further I suspect not. We are also seeing divergence between price and Wielder %R indicating that the higher prices may not have any support under them to hold them up any longer. I could be wrong and am interested to see what happens, though in the abscence of any good economic news tomorrow, I think we may see lowering markets. Will there be enough volitility in them though to see my last trading day for my 4 week trading cycle to pull something magical to finish 50% up for the month???? It would be nice to see.

There are 4 setups appearing for my system tomorrow on the FTSE, the CAC, the DJIA and the DAX. Lets see what happens. Charts can be seen here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=358416&posted=1#post358416

On trading psychology and discipline, I had my first slip since being back at trading in the last 4 weeks. I read an interesting Forex trading method and decided that I would give it a go - trading intraday. In two trades in half an hour I lost £50!!!! I have to stay focussed and not be swayed into trying other systems or thinking my current performance could be improved if I had another system that was also being traded in parrallel. STAY AWAY from it. I do not need it. I MUST maintain my discipline. I will not allow myself to be drawn into doing the same thing again. This is where trading becomes difficult. You have a system that gives you an edge and it becomes boring to trade because it is mechanical and repetative. Exactly the way it should be to continue to make consistent money. I need to go and play golf or something else if I feel I need a challenge. I should not start dabling in other methods of trading which I have not mastered. Discipline and responsibility - I must stick to this. Do not lose sight of the way forward.

Good trading.

Rgds,
TriedItAll