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Old Feb 26, 2009, 1:01pm   #1
Joined Apr 2008
:|Entry=Risk Exit=Reward|:

Welcome to my Trading Journal: ER-ER

Ever since starting trading demos and live accounts I have become a 5 minute specialist. I have tried vast amount of markets but my main ones I trade are:
  1. GBP/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE
  2. USD/CAD, AUD/USD, OIL, DAX
  3. Any other market which has a high R:R trade which is at it's extremes [hot markets]
Naturally being a 5m man I look for breakouts, reversal and retracement plays. However, using price action (by looking at the ticker), I can get ridiculously good entries. I have called and traded the bottoms of tops of cable one too many times to make a guy crazy. The rejections were so good I could move my stop to breakeven after 5seconds and not get stopped. The problem with this is I was taking my profits are too early!

However, what makes a good trader is scalping and long term swing positions combined. So in this journal I'm going to delve into the depths of 1h and daily time frames, combined with my 5minute entries to try and get the maximum r:r ratio possible. Imagine making 1400pips with a stoploss of 5?!

My goals are:
  1. To maximize my R:R ratio
  2. To become proficient in swing trading and scalping
  3. To maximize the amount of pips I get and hit rate
  4. To become effiencient at using 1 hour and daily charts
  5. To build a portfolio of stocks once I feel the bottom of the equity markets has been reached
  6. To maximize and specialise in more markets
  7. To conquer my psychology, become disciplined and fearless.

Note this is going in this forum for now until I post up some of my techniques I use.

Useful Links:


News:

RanSquawk
Economic Calendar

Good Threads to keep up with:
Potential Setups - Ignore the less than 1h calls and crap in between.
I'm Shorting Euros - Good group of lads here who swing trade.
FTSE Trading - Great calls here.

I have 5 accounts. My main ODL one, VDMGM freebie, victorchandlers freebie, iii freebie and igindex for emergencies. (Going to open a natwest one too, love that platform!).

The ODL one will be scalped on, while VDMGM will be used for FTSE and VC for EUR / CABLE trades.

I hope to show you some of the techniques I use (most of them are fairly common) and some of the rules I have. I will probably make some videos later on if you are interested in watching.

At the end of each week I'll write my summary and PnL (in pips/ticks) to and analyse what were the high probably set-ups and what went wrong.

Wish me luck.

Edit: Another useful link = Chatzy Chatroom

Last edited by KillPhil08; Feb 26, 2009 at 3:56pm.
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Old Feb 26, 2009, 1:16pm   #2
Joined Apr 2008
Techniques I use:

KillPhil08 started this thread I use no indicators apart from trendlines. I don't see the point in other indicators when they are all price orientated.

Overnight Range breakout:
Sometimes the asian session can be quite quiet and all the highs and the lows become very good areas to trade off. Usually I wait for a break then add on a retest of the s/r.

SbR and RbS:
When support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support. You'd be suprised at how well these are in trending markets.

1-2-3:
Use it in overbought / oversold markets + trending. Picture explains it all.

New Trading:
My favourite - Usually the price tends to go one way then shoots of in the other once a resistance or support line is in place. The only time I see this not happening is when there was news out before it and there was a decent rejection of price so it continues that way. Many would disagree with this but it's how I trade because I am profitable from it.

Round Numbers:
Look for plays into 50's and 00's

Many thanks to the traders who have helped me along the way:

MrGecko
GeoffHill
Masquerade
Dax
FXScalper
Trader Dante
FTSE beater
Firewalker
Gayrabianights
Spanish89 (what not to do)
Trendie
Choc
BrutusDawg
Ceydababy
WASP aka sweepylongbananafiend!
GJ
ShadowNinja
And many more who I may have forgotten [apologies ]
Attached Thumbnails
technicals.jpg   rbsthrough-candle.jpg  

Last edited by KillPhil08; Feb 26, 2009 at 1:48pm.
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Old Feb 26, 2009, 1:45pm   #3
Joined Apr 2008
First Analysis:

KillPhil08 started this thread OK:

I'll be mainly posting analysis on FTSE, Cable, Euro + Eur/Gbp. I'll probably do 5minute breakout analysis in the morning then do hourly and daily once something major occurs etc.

First up cable:
5m: Stuck between 14240 and 14292. Wait for breaks, Trading sideways
1h: 14292 is a massive level, if it breaks this then it could go rocketing. However it might bounce on the round number. Inside bar and hammer could indicate good strenght north. Decent targets might be 14360.
Daily: Testing outer edges of triangle. Looks ready for a FO SHO BRO although it still has to get past the floor on the hourly charts.

As I type it's just broken. Lol talk about good analysis...
Attached Thumbnails
cable-daily.jpg   cable-hourly.jpg  
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Old Feb 26, 2009, 2:03pm   #4
Joined Apr 2008
Euro

KillPhil08 started this thread Euro is a mess. I hardly Trade it anymore - As soon as it gets out of it's range I'm in there.

5m:

Typical overnight breakout then a rbs play off it up again. Last few mins a triangle - Just play a break out of the highs or lows. Maybe play off the 5m uptrend when it hits again.

1h:

looks bullish until it hits the downtrend

Daily: Stuck in a range!
Attached Thumbnails
eurohiourly.jpg   eurodaily.jpg  

Last edited by KillPhil08; Feb 26, 2009 at 2:06pm. Reason: forgot attachments
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Old Feb 26, 2009, 2:05pm   #5
Joined Apr 2008
KillPhil08 started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by KillPhil08 View Post
OK:

I'll be mainly posting analysis on FTSE, Cable, Euro + Eur/Gbp. I'll probably do 5minute breakout analysis in the morning then do hourly and daily once something major occurs etc.

First up cable:
5m: Stuck between 14240 and 14292. Wait for breaks, Trading sideways
1h: 14292 is a massive level, if it breaks this then it could go rocketing. However it might bounce on the round number. Inside bar and hammer could indicate good strenght north. Decent targets might be 14360.
Daily: Testing outer edges of triangle. Looks ready for a FO SHO BRO although it still has to get past the floor on the hourly charts.

As I type it's just broken. Lol talk about good analysis...
Target hit and reversed.

Stopped out for +15(reversal). Usually at reversal points it tests the same area once unless it's a round number. Then drops off. Very occasionally making a higher high.

YOU HAVE TO - HAVE TO - Take in consideration the previous day, cable fell a lot so it's likely that it will retrace unless important news is out or a trend is set.
----------------------
Another Thought; Guys on Pippy50500's Thread have noticed the correlation between indicess and fx. You have to watch out when they are inverse or directly correlated. . Cable currently made its higher high on 5m, hopefully this wil be the top. But i'm not in anything .
----------------------
Chart Notes:

Purple Circle = Resistance.
Orange Circle = Support.
Red Circle Line = Breakout / Area of Interest.
Red Square = Stop loss Hit (profit or loss).
Blue Square = Taken Profit target Hit.
Red Line = Short.
Blue Line = Long.

If cable does break up the next area of interest will be 14426 and especially 14450.

ONE MORE EDIT:

On my cable chart there is also FIB confluence for the 38% level at 14360.

Last edited by KillPhil08; Feb 26, 2009 at 2:56pm.
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Old Feb 26, 2009, 2:18pm   #6
Joined Apr 2008
EurGBP

KillPhil08 started this thread This is tricky.

I used to trade it off 5m but now it's mainly only hourlies.

The problem with EURGBP is it often breaks it support or resistance then whiplashes back - It is also a very slow pair which only really moves if there is a tanking of euro while sterling rallies.

1h. It broke out of the channel then proceeded upwards. Watch the round numbers - This pair reacts to them VERY well. Might retest the uptrend before choosing it's direction. Sterling is a bit unpredictable these days.
Attached Thumbnails
eurgbphourly.jpg  
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Old Feb 26, 2009, 2:52pm   #7
Joined Apr 2008
KillPhil08 started this thread Classic example of why you need to be a diverse trader, I sold the breakout and bought the double bottom. At what cost? 5 ticks. At what reward? Less than 40. That is why I'm writing this journal. I need to RUN my positions, my entries are fine!

I can't really comment on ftse since I scalp it mainly. I can however tell you important areas to watch out for.

Oh I trade cash btw.

3917 / 3950 / 3880.

Play off these levels and it should treat you well.

I'm very much a momentum player so scalping suits me very well on this.

Hourly: It's in a downtrend although there is an upward channel. Look for breakdowns of this. Unfortunately it managed to push the previous resistance. Daily - Stuck in a downtrend although not reached the lows yet.

UPDATE:
EURGBP hit target, watching cable v euro. I'll probably get stoppped for plus 8 then it'll breakout and the real retracement might begin. Told you - It reacts well to round numbers.

Cable - retraced off previous 5m uptrend - sbr through a candle. News should push it up too due to BAD USD.

Euro - Bounced off overnight high during news, sign to go long especially if it breaks the highs (so far its staying under 12800 not a good sign).

Ftse- well you tell me .
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Old Feb 26, 2009, 5:59pm   #8
Joined Mar 2007
heres todays ftse 1 min, entrys shown, exits different story best is cover at s/r or trail stop on candle h/l. oh and initial stop is 5 ticks.

plenty of points on offer.

nuff said.
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ftsephil.png   phil1.png   phil2.png  

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Old Feb 27, 2009, 3:34pm   #9
Joined Apr 2008
KillPhil08 started this thread Going to update my thoughts on saturday morning if I'm not too hungover. Only taken one trade today due to being, occupied...

Very good ftse setups on 1h and cable morning breakouts. Might make a few videos - If anyone has a good screencapturing software which can be exported to youtube please tell me. The one I have can only export to AVI.

Update to main page - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...-2009-a-6.html
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/just...o-chat-14.html
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 3:50pm   #10
Joined Apr 2008
KillPhil08 started this thread Inside bar on cable, broken 5m downtrend. Not in anything, to late in the day. Dailies on cable now looks like it's going ot tank, I hope it gaps up over the weekend so there will be heavy selling at the start of the week.

Good luck peeps, thanks skelly.

I'll keep googling for a decent one.

edit: long cable worked. bounced off first res at 14420 (i shorted) chance to go long off 14200 then try for 14250 if this is a real bull signal). Not in anything atm, but that spike was too good to be true.

Last edited by timsk; Mar 17, 2011 at 2:01pm. Reason: Housekeeping
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 4:19pm   #11
 
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Good thread

Finally I get to understand the methodology for your calls.
Thanks for doing all this work!
Good thread ... I would rep you but they say I have to spread it around
Nic
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 4:24pm   #12
Joined Apr 2008
KillPhil08 started this thread Feel free to post your own analysis which contradicts or compliments mine.

Little update: EURGBP broke its 1h support so i shorted. My cable call for a long at 142 target 14250 is almost hit.

Little note - When you see me call something, it will usually trade through it or just before it only 30% of the time is it pipperfect. This is why watching the ticker flow for entries is crucial.

EDIT: because the breakout up was so fast (i love momentum) the target of 50 should be first then 65. I tend to base my targets on trendlines so if it is a sloping one (say downtrend) then the faster it reaches the higher the target will be. In anycase - I learnt that this inside bar call was good and it takes time for these trades to expand, patience is key. As i type 65 looks like it's going to hit

Last edited by KillPhil08; Feb 27, 2009 at 4:29pm.
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 4:57pm   #13
Joined Apr 2008
KillPhil08 started this thread Right. Didn't know there was news out at 3:30. This really helped me.

I was busy all morning so i came in for the 1.30 news. Managed to get a long off for 20 pips.

After that had calmed down a 5minute uptrend was in place.

Label a = first try of 5m trend plus previous support.
Label b = first try of yesterdays low from above.

1 = Test of 5m uptrend, easy entry, took it's time but surely rocketed. Exit at 14215 when stop loss was put in.
2 = Short from previous resistance, stopped at 14205 - exit could have been better but i was planning on a bounce at 142 so best to try to play it.
3 = 14200 broke so had to use a ticker to get in a position properly using PA. got in late and my target was 14250. Unfortunately i took off 50% at 14240 when momentum died (probably due to news).
4 = Spiked, was a bit BS so exited a reversed, got out on a RbS trade.
5 = When I exited I tried a reversal of previous resistance. Didnt get much out of this but anything is welcome.

Let's hope we don't range all next week from 14100 to 14360 again.

crap, just saw I could have held trade number 5 for longer. This is why it is imparitive to look at longer timeframes while trading off 5m. I never used to do it and it has increased my pips by A LOT.

- No idea about dailies yet. Still looks set to explode.

EURGBP:

Broke the 1h overnight downtrend, was testing this all day. finally worked. Got a few nifty ones here, unfortunately was on my free account so didnt get as much as i could have.

And now i have to go play squash for the first time in my friggin life. And I'm late...

Oh, hope you all have a good weekend! One of first in many days where i didn't get a stoploss hit for a loss. Most of these trades required stoplosses of 5-7.

GOTTA GO!!
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Last edited by KillPhil08; Feb 27, 2009 at 8:07pm.
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Old Feb 27, 2009, 8:03pm   #14
Joined Apr 2008
KillPhil08 started this thread I'll merge posts to clean up the journal:

Today 04:04 PM
KillPhil08 omfg, my GF is going to be PISSED. went long 26 out at 39
Today 04:01 PM
KillPhil08 just did a quick scalp on 45 cable, long out 65. man im going to be so late.

-----------------------

Ok guys just going to round up the day.

Pips Earnt:
Cable: 184 (edit 201 pips while typing).
EURGBP: 30
EUR/USD: None Taken
FTSE: None Taken

Bottoms and tops hit = 1 so far, long at the GDP announcement.

Max R:R = 12:1 (Potential of 16:1 if i didn't cut 50% early).

My only trades were on cable and it earnt me 184 (201) pips. Best day on one market for a while. However I wish I traded it earlier to cover other markets. I also wish I used my other accounts to go long on this occasion.

Summary of picture:

Major level at 14420 first acted as resistance, then broke and acted twice as support. First time, it didn't reach perfectly (this is why watching the ticker is essential), second time it hit with 5m trendline confluence, this could easily be a buy and hold situation although I was running to the squash courts.

Once round number levels are broken through or hit, there is usually a pull back, this usually happens in the 80's-90's or 10's-20's. You might have been able to get in this short later on, sometimes markets move on their own accord without T&A so you have to be responsible for taking these trades.

The market is still trading on line with this 5m uptrend, it will get squeezed out on a good horizontal level like 14360 (my previous call for a target ). I reckon this will break down eventually. Daily charts make me want to short but I'm still learning to analyse these. I'll put my input on this tomorrow perhaps with a video. Not sure when I can have time, got friends coming over now and 2 parties to attend...

Anyways, point is. Combining 1hour with 5minute charts has GREATLY improved my strategy. If you ever want to talk just PM me or join the chatzy room (click on the two guys with beer).

Good luck and have a good weekend.

Oh check bottom right of the picture, rare candle pattern with fast momentum.

Phil

ps. shout out to brutusdawg - he updated his scalping pics. THAT is the way to trade.
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Last edited by KillPhil08; Feb 27, 2009 at 8:10pm.
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Old Feb 28, 2009, 1:49am   #15
Joined Oct 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by KillPhil08 View Post
Summary of picture:

Major level at 14420 first acted as resistance, ...
Hi

You've mentioned 14420 in a couple of posts. I'm assuming you meant 14240 or am I missing something?
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