Whats shaking

This is a discussion on Whats shaking within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; forgot to add this trend line in creating resistance aswell as the double top for gold. also another strat i ...

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Old Feb 8, 2009, 1:55am   #9
 
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N Rothschild started this thread forgot to add this trend line in creating resistance aswell as the double top for gold.

also another strat i use for price prediction shows a high of about 939$ from the low on the weekly charts, we have pritty much hit that so possible change of trend
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Old Feb 8, 2009, 2:04am   #10
 
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
Hi, agree if the hedging is a future and not a future option, the farmer will not benifit at all.
I think, though I might be wrong, but COT includes the future options too.
Options are much safer instruments, as they migh or might not be exercised, the futures always must be exercised.
Please do not take what I have written as polemical, I just have seen that you have included COT and that made me thinking.
I do wish you many good trades Gold including, and forgive me if in anyway I have managed to mud the water.
Regards,
2be
COT gives both futures and options positions in separate print outs, these snapshots are from the futures mate
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Old Feb 8, 2009, 2:08am   #11
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Originally Posted by Genics View Post
i am totally aware of what your saying and yes you are right im just saying from my experiance this is the strategy if find works best. and btw we are talking about futures here not options so if a farmer is hedging his weat with a futrues contract he will never benefit from the rising prices as you cant just let a future expire can you. and if banks are hedging against gold deposits, well again why use futures as it would simply lock your price in..you would neither gain or loose. (if we asumeyou are hedging an equal amount of gold threw futures) what you described using puts/calls is a perfectly valid way of hedging but we are talking futures here. anyway i dont want to turn this thread into an argument i think we will just have to agree to disagree, i know what you are saying is true but i like to the oposite side of non comercial posistions, ofcourse you can do the oposite and now ive said this i will be proved totaly wrong this week haha

also what is your thoughts on the gold charts, long or short
Regarding charts I have chosen to be reactionary to the price action atm. 930 is the pivotal zone, and once the price pierces through it I would expect for Gold to appreciate. There is need to be carefull however that if this happens this time around it is not a false breakout, so a severe SL close, but below 930. I will rather loose some pips than be on the wrong site of the market.
We shall see what happens at the beginning of the week.
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Old Feb 8, 2009, 2:24am   #12
 
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Originally Posted by Genics View Post
Next is copper, bullish chart, will look to buy a pullback of the break out..heavy long posistions in the market currently. also note copper can be a good indicator of the state of the worlds economy (you need copper to make pritty much everything, cars, houses etc etc) so if demand is going up again...well you do the maths.
if we look at this situation, the COT non commercial is telling up the interest is short, how ever this was on Tuesday right at those lows and since then we have rallied considerably..so its probably safe to say a fair few of those short got so a large portion of those non commercial shorts got it wrong.
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Old Feb 8, 2009, 2:31am   #13
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Originally Posted by Genics View Post
COT gives both futures and options positions in separate print outs, these snapshots are from the futures mate
I have had yet another look at the posted snapshot of COT and indeed it says it plainly that is is "futures only" and what I have posted relates to Future options, a very differenr scenario. I do apologise for confusing these two, it was not intentional.
This perspective changes the polarity as COT is pointing clearly for the Gold to depreciate, because the future unlike an option has to be exercised. In this case the false breakout is likely to be a trap, and though Gold is likely to appreciate in a longer TF, this time around according to the COT it is very likely to depreciate. Only time will tell, and we shall be ready for both scenarios.
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Old Feb 8, 2009, 4:06am   #14
 
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N Rothschild started this thread lets make some money mate
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Old Feb 8, 2009, 2:55pm   #15
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lets make some money mate
I cannot agree more!!!
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Old Feb 9, 2009, 10:30pm   #16
 
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N Rothschild started this thread Good sell off in gold today, came down to make a double bottom on the hourly charts, prolly rally off this level for a bit till we hopefully head down again, if we can break 890$ should be some potential for 850-840$. Im short from 908$
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