Gumping's Journal

This is a discussion on Gumping's Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by c_c405 You could increase your performance by looking at longer TF's and drilling down to time your ...

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Old Jan 9, 2009, 10:52pm   #17
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c_c405 View Post
You could increase your performance by looking at longer TF's and drilling down to time your entry

is the minute chart clearly defining price action / direction for you? not likely i would suspect

start with the 4 hour and drill down to 1 minute then wait and wait some more. Your trades could be netting you a lot more than 15 pips

just a thought
Thanks man

I always have the M5 and M1 charts up, and do tend to go up to M15 to pick up trendlines and S/R levels and such. I'm aware of what goes on at higher levels but I must admit it doesn't come into my decision-making processes that much.
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Old Jan 9, 2009, 11:23pm   #18
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Best of luck mate...

... I will echo Arabians points; if you are going to be trading full time (as in sat at the desk and taking in all you see) then I would be advise against very small timeframes (unless your scalping from the orderbook etc...) - do not fall for the illusion that smaller timeframes will yield more opportunities and make up the extra profits you need... try using hourly+ bars and watching them form, you might find an equal number of better quality trades.

Also, it makes no sense to have a fixed profit target. Have a loss limit, whereby if you hit this then something is not quite right, or you are frustrated / irritated / risk overtrading... then go and clean up your accounts / whatever...

.. Of course, if you are absolutely raking it in, it makes no sense to stop*! When your "edge" is working, keep going. When is isn't, then stop!

* in these circumstances I set "watermark stops", so If I lose XX from my maximum then I stop.

Again, I will emphasise what I think is an important point: Do not be under the impression that smaller timeframes will result in more trades. It is wholly possible to make 15m duration trades off hourly charts, and there is a case that they are "better" trades than the ones off 15m charts themselves*. Alot to be said for watching them form.

If you find yourself bores out of your skull, there is usually someone knocking about here Chatzy - For a quick shag dial 01312281211 - but be warned, it is basically a "locker room" for when the real trading is on the back burner (as I think you can already tell). I can guarantee, however, that there are some "proper" / "professional" (lol) / "locals" / "own account" / "full time" traders there, who, when things are going against you and the sh!t has hit the fan, will laugh, take the p1ss, generally throw abuse at you, and move onto to far more important matters (like if bald women can be sexy).

* A rather random piece of info, but to illustrate the point: if you think you have seen the end of a retracement (or consolidation / whatever), and you are expecting to see a continuation of the original trend (whatever), the oft quoted saying "higher highs and higher lows" (or other) can be pretty darn useful on "serious" timeframes.
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Old Jan 9, 2009, 11:26pm   #19
 
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take a look at EUR/USD or any other

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumping View Post
Thanks man

I always have the M5 and M1 charts up, and do tend to go up to M15 to pick up trendlines and S/R levels and such. I'm aware of what goes on at higher levels but I must admit it doesn't come into my decision-making processes that much.
15 M charts do not define trends at all dude daily charts will give a clearer picture take a look at this one for a moment

5 charts of the same pair at the same time - Here is what they look like

[IMG]Click the image to open in full size.[/IMG]
That looks like a downtrend doesn't it?

[IMG]Click the image to open in full size.[/IMG]
How does this one look? Still down?

[IMG]Click the image to open in full size.[/IMG]
How bout this one?

[IMG]Click the image to open in full size.[/IMG]
and this one?

[IMG]Click the image to open in full size.[/IMG]

Is this one still down like the 1 minute chart? Hardly! all techs considered it is looking like a test of resitance to the upside after a huge fall several months ago.

Hope this helps you make more pips - Some of my trades net over 1000 pips by simply using the multi time frames and identifying where price is Right NOW compared to where it can go and has gone. by looking at these time frames you can see how stops on a 1 minute chart set at 20 pips or so are completely useless and more dangerous than patience and wider stops

Anyway just hope I can help you catch more pips if it helps great - If not then tell me to buzz off :-)

Check my thread with the new broker I'm trying out
real money - standard lots - 5000 deposit

Cheers
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 11:10pm   #20
 
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Gumping started this thread Thanks for all the comments guys Much appreciated.

Yesterday was a pretty sh1te day all told. I was taking into consideration the idea about moving up to M15 TF. I ended up doing something that was neither M1 or M15, by attempting to trade the M15 using M1 entries and stops. I picked the market direction (short) but got stopped out when really trading off of M15 with a swing stop I should still be in the trade and a couple of 100 pips to the good. In the end I stopped for the day.
Today was a different animal. I got in short (Red line) this morning on the M1, and price immediately spiked down and immediately took off long, stopping me out.

Click the image to open in full size.

Then I waited for the retracement to the 50% Fib on the M15 and entered in just below a level (Blue line) that price was clustering around on M1. Other than that fact, the trade was managed wholly from M15. Lot size and stops were adjusted for the higher TF. Stop went above a swing high above the 61.8% Fib.
I had to go out and hence set a 50 pip trailing stop loss on the trade to lock in some pips and ended up getting stopped out at 1.3239 for a 34 pip profit. Ideally, I should have left the stop where it was and trailed it as new swing highs started to form. But I had some jobs to do.

Other than that, I would say that I probably should have completely ignored M1 and entered on the breakout of the Fib - that would have netted me plenty more pips. I should also maybe look at profit target ideas - I have no idea what I'd do with these trades if they built up a significant profit. The 50 pips SL locked in some profits and was good since I had to be away. Is trailing the way forward, or should I set a target? Should I split the position and TP on half and trail the other?

I think this M15 TF is a bit more sedate and I did feel alot more comfortable trading it than M1. So I reckon I'll be looking at it in more detail from now on. Thanks for the pointers guys

Another note: the jobs I had to do reflect the fact that I'm going on holiday on Friday. I'll be gone for 2 weeks. I might try something tomorrow but I'm not sure.
So thanks for the comments, and if I don't get on-line between now and Fri, enjoy the Blighty winter; I'm off to Gambia
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Old Feb 9, 2009, 9:38pm   #21
 
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Gumping started this thread Hey all

Sorry for the delay in posting. I've been back all of last week but haven't been doing any of this darksider stuff. I've been working on other things but I'd like to get back to my price action stuff. Got back to it today and spotted an opportunity on the H1 EUR/JPY: a reversal candle had formed in confluence with a diagonal trendline and a longstanding H4 pivot level.
Now that triggered at like 6 a.m. so I missed it. I dialled down to look for a re-entry opportunity and was struck by the 'Ross Hook' forming on M15. I thought trading the break of that with the stop below one of the recent swing lows was a legitimate entry, and that the target could well be the high on the chart.
However, I wasn't happy with the risk level on that trade, since the stop would have been 70+ pips. Price was retracing (was on the candle covered by the vertical line) so I thought I'd wait to see if I could get a lower risk entry, and lo and behold a reversal candle formed that just poked onto the 61.8% fib of that small swing. I used the break of that reversal bar as entry, and break of the low as stop (~27 pips risk) and had a target of the highs.
My stop got me in well below the swing high level, and after breaking it, the price took off, stalling a bit at the 50% Fib. which was in confluence with a pivot level. However, the retracement was weak, and I imagined there could be a ton of buy stops just beyond that level so a bit of propulsion may accompany it's break.
That was so. The 61.8% in confluence with a pivit line (not shown) and the round number, 118.75 also caused a little chop, but the price really did very little by way of retracement until it hit my price target at the top. At that point, I set a 35 pip trailing stop to see if I could get any more, but it retraced back and stopped out for +167 pips.

Conclusion there is I pretty much nailed the target area, I spotted the market at important levels and dialled in an entry that reduced my risk level significantly.
That trade gives me great confidence for the future - one of them each day and I should do well.
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