My black swan betfair journal

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Old Oct 19, 2008, 1:53pm   #1
 
arabianights's Avatar
Joined Jan 2007
My black swan betfair journal

An occasional journal in which I'll post betfair trades aiming to capture black swan events. My main betfair interest is political betting.

Trade 1

Aim: Capture misfortune occurring to one of the presidential candidates (or to Mr. Bush) before next president is sworn in.

Method: Lay McCain and Obama. Additionally, back Biden, Palin, Clinton, Romney and Cheney as by far the most likely candidates to become presidents in chance of misfortune.

Execution:

I didn't back Hiliary because I hate her.


Back:

(Average odds, stake, payout)

Joseph Biden
348.14 11.854,113.55

Sarah Palin
482.44 8.55 4,116.35

Mitt Romney
1000 4.00 3,996.00

Dick Cheney
1000 4.00 28.40 3,996.00

Lay:

(Average odds, stake, liability)

Barack Obama
1.19 129.42 24.59

John McCain
6.96 22.13 151.55 131.88

Translation:

If McCain or Obama become president, then I have a net loss of 30.86

If either Palin, Biden, Romney or Cheney become president then I have a gain of approximately 4000.

If anyone else becomes the next president then I will have a gain of 116.99

Stupid mistake:

Despite the name of the market, having just checked this more carefully while writing this thread I see the following:

Rule Clarification: 31st January 08, 12:30pm: For the avoidance of doubt, this market will be settled on the result of the next US Presidential election

Making this a very stupid bit of trading. But I started typing this, so I'll finish...
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Old Oct 19, 2008, 2:26pm   #2
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
I didn't back Hiliary because I hate her. But I do dream of her with Palin, wearing bikinis, wrestling in a pool of jelly.
EFA

Sorry to hijack your journal. *runs*
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Old Oct 19, 2008, 3:22pm   #3
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arabianights View Post

Method: Lay McCain and Obama.
You do that - and I'll lay Palin
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Old Oct 19, 2008, 4:00pm   #4
 
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Old Oct 19, 2008, 8:38pm   #5
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumping View Post
You do that - and I'll lay Palin
Ooooh... you are awful
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Old Oct 19, 2008, 8:38pm   #6
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
EFA

Sorry to hijack your journal. *runs*
No comment
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No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.
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Old Oct 19, 2008, 8:49pm   #7
 
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arabianights started this thread Ok... next move - I've bet on mccain (after odds shifted worse against him tonight after Powell's comments) - now I'll make 8 pence if he wins. Other wins are slightly affected but not by much

(I'll lose 35.28 if obama wins - which is surely most likely but that was never my point )
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