My black swan betfair journal

arabianights · Oct 19, 2008, 8:53am

An occasional journal in which I'll post betfair trades aiming to capture black swan events. My main betfair interest is political betting.

Trade 1

Aim: Capture misfortune occurring to one of the presidential candidates (or to Mr. Bush) before next president is sworn in.

Method: Lay McCain and Obama. Additionally, back Biden, Palin, Clinton, Romney and Cheney as by far the most likely candidates to become presidents in chance of misfortune.

Execution:

I didn't back Hiliary because I hate her.

Back:

(Average odds, stake, payout)

Joseph Biden
348.14 £11.85£4,113.55

Sarah Palin
482.44 £8.55 £4,116.35

Mitt Romney
1000 £4.00 £3,996.00

Dick Cheney
1000 £4.00 £28.40 £3,996.00

Lay:

(Average odds, stake, liability)

Barack Obama
1.19 £129.42 £24.59

John McCain
6.96 £22.13 £151.55 £131.88

Translation:

If McCain or Obama become president, then I have a net loss of £30.86

If either Palin, Biden, Romney or Cheney become president then I have a gain of approximately £4000.

If anyone else becomes the next president then I will have a gain of £116.99

Stupid mistake:

Despite the name of the market, having just checked this more carefully while writing this thread I see the following:

Rule Clarification: 31st January 08, 12:30pm: For the avoidance of doubt, this market will be settled on the result of the next US Presidential election

Making this a very stupid bit of trading. But I started typing this, so I'll finish...

shadowninja · Oct 19, 2008, 9:26am

Quote:

Originally Posted by arabianights

I didn't back Hiliary because I hate her. But I do dream of her with Palin, wearing bikinis, wrestling in a pool of jelly.

EFA

Sorry to hijack your journal. *runs*

Gumping · Oct 19, 2008, 10:22am

Quote:

Originally Posted by arabianights

Method: Lay McCain and Obama.

You do that - and I'll lay Palin

shadowninja · Oct 19, 2008, 11:00am

arabianights · Oct 19, 2008, 3:38pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumping

You do that - and I'll lay Palin

Ooooh... you are awful

arabianights · Oct 19, 2008, 3:38pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by shadowninja

EFA

Sorry to hijack your journal. *runs*

No comment

arabianights · Oct 19, 2008, 3:49pm

Ok... next move - I've bet on mccain (after odds shifted worse against him tonight after Powell's comments) - now I'll make 8 pence if he wins. Other wins are slightly affected but not by much

(I'll lose £35.28 if obama wins - which is surely most likely but that was never my point

)

MrGecko · Oct 19, 2008, 3:54pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by arabianights

I, arabianights of 29 Acacia Road, London, am going to assassinate one of the leading Presidential candidates in order to secure a profit on my geo-political arbitrage trading strategy

Let's see how sharp these CIA boys are... do you reckon they will figure out which one?

Also, WTF is up with your signature? Are you afriad of getting someone pregnant or something?

Oct 19, 2008, 8:53am	#1
arabianights Legendary Member Member Since Jan 2007 6,782 Posts	My black swan betfair journal An occasional journal in which I'll post betfair trades aiming to capture black swan events. My main betfair interest is political betting. Trade 1 Aim: Capture misfortune occurring to one of the presidential candidates (or to Mr. Bush) before next president is sworn in. Method: Lay McCain and Obama. Additionally, back Biden, Palin, Clinton, Romney and Cheney as by far the most likely candidates to become presidents in chance of misfortune. Execution: I didn't back Hiliary because I hate her. Back: (Average odds, stake, payout) Joseph Biden 348.14 £11.85£4,113.55 Sarah Palin 482.44 £8.55 £4,116.35 Mitt Romney 1000 £4.00 £3,996.00 Dick Cheney 1000 £4.00 £28.40 £3,996.00 Lay: (Average odds, stake, liability) Barack Obama 1.19 £129.42 £24.59 John McCain 6.96 £22.13 £151.55 £131.88 Translation: If McCain or Obama become president, then I have a net loss of £30.86 If either Palin, Biden, Romney or Cheney become president then I have a gain of approximately £4000. If anyone else becomes the next president then I will have a gain of £116.99 Stupid mistake: Despite the name of the market, having just checked this more carefully while writing this thread I see the following: Rule Clarification: 31st January 08, 12:30pm: For the avoidance of doubt, this market will be settled on the result of the next US Presidential election Making this a very stupid bit of trading. But I started typing this, so I'll finish... __________________ World's leading STIRs chatroom - www.propboards.com - register, then click on chat. Don't let the lack of posts on the forum put you off - the action happens in the chatroom. Targeted at locals, but hedge funds, brokers (including IDBs), market makers, and a few sizable amateurs are all represented. When it's quiet, banter is encouraged and anything goes. No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.

Oct 19, 2008, 11:00am	#4
shadowninja Legendary Member Member Since Jul 2007 5,530 Posts	Re: My black swan betfair journal __________________ The markets can stay solvent longer than you can stay irrational. My sports trading challenge: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...challenge.html

Oct 19, 2008, 3:49pm	#7
arabianights Legendary Member Member Since Jan 2007 6,782 Posts	Re: My black swan betfair journal Ok... next move - I've bet on mccain (after odds shifted worse against him tonight after Powell's comments) - now I'll make 8 pence if he wins. Other wins are slightly affected but not by much (I'll lose £35.28 if obama wins - which is surely most likely but that was never my point ) __________________ World's leading STIRs chatroom - www.propboards.com - register, then click on chat. Don't let the lack of posts on the forum put you off - the action happens in the chatroom. Targeted at locals, but hedge funds, brokers (including IDBs), market makers, and a few sizable amateurs are all represented. When it's quiet, banter is encouraged and anything goes. No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.

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