A 1 year old Swing Trader

Hi Everyone,

1st July is my official 1 year trading anniversary. Trading the past 1 year has been difficult but fruitful one trying to decode the "Trading DNA".

I have tried several strategies but none seems to fit me.
The time-frame ranges from 1 day to end of the world holding. I just got more and more confused and insatisfied.

I need to come up with my own.

Just a few months ago, while reading charts , i suddenly see swinging patterns in the chart jumping on me. I began reading more and more charts trying to figure it out and like what i see.

Thus I have decided to become a swing trader playing around swing cycles in stocks.

As I trade, I began the most important entity is myself. Its how much I choose to obey the rules that will lead to the best results.

Trading is too easy as in there is nobody to stop you from doing the wrong things/ I have now decided to make open my trades in my blog and in 1-2 well-known forums. I need to be accountable for my results.

Hopefully I will make the next level in my trading career using this method.

Everyday I will update my trading journal over here on my Open Trades and New Trades.

My Trading Plan

My trading plan:

Strategy: I will explain it in my charts. They are mainly candle reversals on trendlines or down/up trend line breakout

TA Tools: Trendline , Candlesticks Interpretation , MACD

Position Sizing: Each trade stoploss will not exceed 3% of my capital

Time Frame : 1-3 days for options , 1-30 days for stocks

My Trades on 1 Jul '08

Below are some of the trades I took near yesterday closing hours.

I will be going thru' them here on a daily basis until they are closed.

hi, ezy

looking forward to reading your journal.

be a bit easier if you put your charts in as thumbnails so they can be expanded for easier viewing.

good trading

jon

ezytrendtrader said:

I need to come up with my own.

Just a few months ago, while reading charts , i suddenly see swinging patterns in the chart jumping on me. I began reading more and more charts trying to figure it out and like what i see.

Click to expand...

Yep to both paragraphs. Since I realised this, my trading has become more consistently profitable.

Open Trades Updates - CLR, EAC, GMXR, SOHU (02 Jul '08)

I have closed all my LONG trades yesterday during the earlier hours. I have bought longs in anticpation of a market reversal but there was no followup.

Looking at the slaughtering of neighbouring Coals & Steels, I have to get out , ended with a small net profit thanks to GMXR .

I always obey this statement,. When you are not sure of your trade , GET OUT immediately !

Meanwhile I will buy option PUTs for this few weeks until the commodities selloff
is done and an extreme fear has reached. I will be looking at Techs for
LONGs.

(Sorry for the small image, I will link them with thumbnails once my blog is back up again. Currently , I am using my image from covestor blog)



* All of my trades are verified by Covestor (except Option trades which they cant for now)

My new trades - AGU, DRYS Puts - 03 Jul '08

*I always tell myself when market is in downtrend, dont try LONGs unless the stocks are in the strongest sector on a uptrend.

Commodities are now on selling pressure and might last for weeks depending how fast the sellers let go.

Below are my two new trades :

barjon said:

hi, ezy

looking forward to reading your journal.

be a bit easier if you put your charts in as thumbnails so they can be expanded for easier viewing.

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Sorry about that Jon. I am currently linking this poor quality images from my covestor blog.

I have better images source once my blog is up . (domain changes currently)

shadowninja said:

Yep to both paragraphs. Since I realised this, my trading has become more consistently profitable.

Click to expand...

Yea ninja...I got better when I stick to 1 method or 1 person for trade ideas. Just 1..

Open Trades Updates - AGU, DRYS Jul Puts (03 Jul '08)

I have closed both of my speculative puts due to a long weekend.

Time is money esp in options !

However, I may dabble in options again if i can find some reversal candles.

Seeya Mon for next update.

Market Updates (7 Jul '08) - Low volume on Thurs with no conviction

Market Trend: Down-Trend(Short commodities only & troubled financial stocks)

Strongest Sectors : NIL

Weakest Sectors : Commodities sector - Coal ,Metals, Ferts & Oil related stocks

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With a rather low volume across all stocks on Thursday, we can't have a conviction on the price movement .

Thus we have to act accordingly to the price movement this week.

As of now, the commodities are selling off (Short opportunity) and the rest of the sectors(Buying opportunity) seems to find support and are building a base.

Lets take a look at at the SPY chart for a general outlook.

Potential LONGs & SHORTs (7 Jul '08) - AAPL, BIDU, GMXR, XCO

LONGS:





SHORTS:

My Trades (07 Jul '08) - CLR, XCO, ENER, SD Put Options

Added PUT options on CLR ,XCO, ENER & SD this morning.

This are speculative plays and I look to exit before 3-4 days.



The Commodities are undergoing some serious profit-taking. This is neccessary for the market to get some funds back to the other sector for the elusive oversold rally

Meanwhile with the market in downtrend, its better to short the weak stocks for the time being. :innocent:

Open trades update (08 Jul ‘08) - Sold ENER, Holding CLR,XCO & SD

I sold my ENER puts after a hour of holding yesterday . I bought it when it failed to make a breakthru of the downtrend line.

In a bear market, stocks often rally in the earlier hours and sell off in the late hours.

Now I am left with 3 other puts whose charts look good for another 2-3 days . Will update again in real-time when i sell this time.



* I am thinking how to document my option trades in covestor.com for proof. Probably I going duplicate my options trades with 1 share of the stock .

Market Updates (8 Jul ‘08) - Anything new except that market is going lower?

Sorry there is nothing new except that market is going lower !

The market was trying to rally in the early hours but the gains were devoured happily by the Bears (Sellers or Shorters).

Near the last two hours, the market staged an impressive rally of 100+ points before giving most back.

Open trade updates (9 Jul ‘08) - FSLR stopped out. My bad

FSLR got stopped out just 3 hours later. I did have this oversold sentiment before I put on this trade .I failed to interpret the charts too. I need to sleep early man.

Potential Trades (9 Jul ‘08) - AAPL, BIDU, SQM

Market going into a likely reversal and the oversold conditions could help the rally last for weeks.

So we are going to look for LONGs that can give us explosive returns in days .
Look for stocks that are building a base during the correction .


I mentioned AAPL & BIDU 2 days ago and they are still favourite picks.
In addition , I included SQM which is SUPER-Runner that I cant ignore it.


Here are some additional trades that look good right now.
POT, ELN, FLIR, BEAV, ENER

* I only list trades that are not overextended and provided the best risk/reward as of now

Market Updates (9 Jul '08) - Are we bottoming today or just an oversold rally?

Market Outlook
Market Trend: Downtrend turning Reversal (Wait for confirmation today)
Strongest Sectors : Tech, BioTech, Defense related
Weakest Sectors : Commodities related


Looking at the action across all sectors yesterday, I can't help but maintain a bullish outlook for the next few weeks.


I am a chart believer and have been buying PUTs for the past few weeks but I am about to change my "direction". (that is option calls and outright stock buys)
SPY and SDS which is an absolute indicator for the stock market health make a significant reversal yesterday. Both formed a reversal candle with volume for conviction.


However, look at the chart of SPY , we can see there is 2 downtrend line obstructing. Once these two trendlines are broken, we can safety say that prices will go up and probably test the Mar highs in a couple of weeks.


Thats how fast the market can move nowadays.


Not only is this huge reversal action seem at SPY & SDS, we can see it at across every individual sector. Its as if the BIG BOYs are getting itchy now with so much money on the sidelines. They are the deciding factor on how this market moves and they are not as fickle-minded as the broad based investors.


I have uploaded AAPL , one of my longs earlier to reflect on the market possible direction. Some of the highly traded Leaders in this market move in tandem with the broader market. We can use it to confirm on our sentiment.


So lets await today market action and I will decide on the appropiate action to take. As of now, I am looking at LONGs .











Best & worst performing sector ETF's in today's session
Sector Leaders:
Commercial Banks- KBE +8.1%, Homebuilders- XHB +7.75%, Regional Banks- KRE +7.65%, RKH +6.75%, Real Estate- IYR +7.25%, Finance- XLF +6.05%, IYF +5.9%, Transports- IYT +4.75%, Broker/Dealers- IAI +4.6%, Insurance Brokers- KIE +4.05%
Sector Laggards:
Nat. Gas- UNG -4.65%, Oil- USO -4.25%, Commodities- DBC -3.85%, GSG -3.45%, Base Metals- DBB -3.8%, Heating Oil- UHN -3.55%, Gasoline- UGA -3.45%, Ag/Chem- MOO -2.3%, Steel- SLX -2.05%, Gold Miners- GDX -1.5%, Energy- IYE -1.5%, XLE -1.35%

My new trades (09 Jul ‘08) - BIDU, GMXR, IPI Calls

Market is showing strength now and I like the fact how everyone is going up.
We are probably on the upside bias till next week.


But …who knows , market can go down again due to another news of bank collapsing or oil prices up sharply.


I will trade what the market can give me for now.

Market Updates (11 Jul ‘08) - We are almost there

Market Outlook

Market Short-term Trend:
Slightly Bullish due to extreme oversold
(Buying strongest sectors on downtrend breakout or rebounce uptrend, shorting weakest sectors that stalled on downtrend line)


Strongest Sectors :
Energy, Tech, BioTech, Commodities related, Defense related


Weakest Sectors :
Casinos, Financial related


DOW was up 100+ points before it gave up all when oil prices move up rapidly on a technical bounce. It went into a new low and quickly went back to positive areas.


Yesterday the volume for SPY was 3 month high. When market reached new low and mass volume pushes it up, you know there is some powerful buying out there to support the market.


Even 1 of the weakest stock in Casino, WYNN gapped up 15% in a prelimary earnings report ! This shows how sentiment is changing and how much you can get hurt in an oversold condition.


So short term SHORTERs, do take care as the elusive bear market powerful rally may be approaching. Buy some longs for protection. Those already in profits, trail them tight !

Sector performance (% change on day): Financials (-0.93%), Tech (+1.27%), Health Care (+0.45%), Consumer Staples (-0.02%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.72%), Industrials (+1.22%), Energy (+2.68%), Telecom (+1.49%), Materials (+2.51%), Utilities (+0.49%).