EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD trend trading

This is a discussion on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD trend trading within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I will keep track of my trades in this journal in the interest of keeping a historical record and hopefully ...

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Old Jun 1, 2008, 7:07pm   #1
 
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD trend trading

I will keep track of my trades in this journal in the interest of keeping a historical record and hopefully to receive some good input from other experienced traders. In a year of forex trading I have had the most success on medium term trend trades with the Euro, cable, and swiss, so I am going to stick with them. Asian finance is an animal all its own, so I prefer to leave that to them and do what I understand. Trichet's central bank policy makes sense to me, while Bernanke is trying to destroy our country as fast as possible, so I tend to be long on the euro more often than not. When I feel the euro is overextended, I will either sit it out, or short the EUR/CHF. I prefer to buy retracements rather than breakouts. I am being mentored on some of my trading, but I will refrain from telling which trades are which to protect his signals. So I can't take full credit for all the wins, but its a nice bonus to be winning while you're learning, right? I've learned a lot, especially about market psychology and gut feel. So, without further ado, I will begin posting trades, along with my reasons for taking them. Feel free to comment on them and point out some technicals I may have overlooked.
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Old Jun 1, 2008, 7:29pm   #2
 
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First trade

hxcjf started this thread This trade was taken on retracement to 1.5500 after a wedge break. There was a decided bullish candle that closed outside the triangle at the end of the week, and very strong support at 1.5450 and so I bought at 1.5500 with a 100 pip trailing stop. I added in at 1.5700 on two euro-bullish news items and strong price action. Price flagged at 1.5800 so I moved my stop to 1.5750, where it triggered. Net 300 pips.
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Old Jun 1, 2008, 7:40pm   #3
 
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Trade 2

hxcjf started this thread My next buy was at 1.5700, as price was still buoyant, and it went my way for about 50 pips, then dropped like a rock on bad news. I then got in again where I was stopped out after it went a ways past my stop, but then it dropped hard and I exited manually after losing eighty pips.

W/L: -130
Net: 170
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Old Jun 1, 2008, 7:55pm   #4
 
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Upcoming potential trades

hxcjf started this thread Ok, after a bullish uptick after the end of the week, I am liking a buy at 1.5500 on the EUR/USD just like two weeks ago. Also, there is some pretty hardcore resistance on the GBP/USD at 1.9840 that could be worth shorting as well. But my favorite setup of the week is going on with the EUR/GBP right now. My gut says that risk aversion will hit the markets again this week, and my bullish EUR outlook and bearish GBP outlook spell a spike in the EURGBP, and it could even go my way if I'm half-wrong, haha. EG is hovering on a third touch above a daily trendline that I believe will provide strong support. I will buy with 4% risk at market .7845 when it opens on Sunday with a 50 pip trailing stop. If I prove right on risk aversion and my Euro outlook, I will add in up to .8000. It'd sure be nice to have a heck of a position on if it breaks out to the upside, wouldn't it?
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Old Jun 1, 2008, 11:41pm   #5
 
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Interesting how we all have different perspectives. I am very bullish on Cable right now.

I think there are several solid reasons to go long from the daily TF including:

1) An ascending TL along with;
2) A retest of a descending TL (see chart 1)
3) A 38 fib retracement of the recent swing low to high (see chart 2)
4) A significant support resistance/pivot a little lower down
5) Price action shows long tails on the daily candles as priced has rejected lower levels for several days
6) The opening gap lower gives a good reason to go long as these gaps get filled a majority of the time.
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Old Jun 2, 2008, 2:20am   #6
 
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hxcjf started this thread True, some of the technicals seem to be bullish for the cable, and it might go up in the short term, but overall, it feels kind of heavy to me. If I traded the 1.9840 resistance short, it would be with a 25 pip stop and 50 pip target. I'm not ready to actually short the pound against the dollar, but I would against the euro in the setup I mentioned earlier, as I believe the pound will weaken against the euro in the next couple months. The weekly cable chart is decidedly bearish and appears to be turning over. I am anticipating new risk aversion this week, but if it doesn't happen, I'll revise my outlook. The market perceives cable as highly exposed to subprime fallout, and I don't think we've seen the last of that. I might switch to a bullish medium term outlook on cable if it could close above 2.0000 on a daily chart. I am doing position trades, so I am looking to build up a position in EUR/GBP. If it isn't happening after a couple weeks, I'll step back and take another look. Thanks for your input, I hadn't noticed those long tails, and they are significant.
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Old Jun 2, 2008, 4:04pm   #7
 
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EUR/GBP movin'

hxcjf started this thread Well, the EUR/GBP trade is playing out like clockwork. I got in at the market at .7885 with a 50 pip TS and market is now at .7900 after making a new high of .7927. Pound fell back inside a bearish daily channel after three bad news items came back, and now only the 50% fibonacci level remains to stop a retest of 1.9400. Meanwhile euro is hitting very significant resistance at 1.5500, and I am expecting a bounce there. I'm happy with this trade, and looking to add in once I'm sufficiently in the money. I'd like to be well-loaded before .7950 for a test of .8000. If that breaks, I'll reload for .8200.
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Old Jun 8, 2008, 6:49pm   #8
 
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hxcjf started this thread Well, the EUR/GBP did exactly as I thought it would. GBP weakness hit, but unfortunately, Bernanke's comments shook me out of the trade for a 6 pip loss. Then it proceeded to rocket up on ECB comments and a .5% unemployment rise. ARGH! Such is the life of a trader. If I were to do it over again, I would tighten the stop before the news just in case to protect some of my profits, and look for a reentry after the dust settles, if the news didn't change my overall outlook. I could have saved 40 pips and reentered on the positive ECB news and bullish candle at the lower trendline. I also had a small buy on EUR/USD from 1.5510 that was stopped out at 1.5520. After the NFP's on Friday, I am solidly bullish EUR/USD and I bought at 1.5763 with 100 pip TS. I am looking to add onto the position up to a test of 1.6018, including a buy stop at 1.6043. I will pyramid the position to 1.6018 risking the profits that I am already in the money on, taking no new risk beyond the initial trade. I am looking for a solid break to 1.6500 or higher.
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