Quantt’s betting journal

This is a discussion on Quantt’s betting journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by options-george IMHO, this is actually incorrect. It would be extremely difficult for you to make money betting ...

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Old Dec 15, 2017, 4:11pm   #9
 
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Originally Posted by options-george View Post
IMHO, this is actually incorrect. It would be extremely difficult for you to make money betting against the bookmakers. The margin in the bookmakers' offering of odds would be very difficult to overcome. You can see this very easily by checking odds offered by bookmakers and compare to the 'market price' on a betting exchange (such as Betfair or Smarkets). This will enable you to calculate how fat the bookmakers' margin is.

The more likely way to make money in sportsbetting is to bet against other independent bettors on the betting exchange. However, this is also incredibly competitive. You might be surprised at some of the setup involved by sophisticated sports bettors who are actually all over the sporting events with a huge amount of algorithms.

Just chiming in to hopefully save you from investing time in something that is ill-fated from the outset, though somehow I doubt people will agree with my view.
Thanks for taking the time George to give me your advice, I got your messages as well and you make a very good and fair points!

Looks like sports betting is a very complicated, even more so than I tough frankly...

But let's see if we can try something simpler...

If nothing else, it gives me a bit of a healthy distraction from the "hate watching" my favorite team (good thing TWD is done for now, because I just can't handle two "hate watching" things in my life :-)

With every game watching my team my hair is turning a bit more gray... but I guess that is the misery the sports fan has to pay for a few minutes of glory once every thousand years :-)

I just can't start here on the owner, the manager, the coach, the system, the players...

anyway :-)
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My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 4:13pm   #10
 
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Bets for 20171214 (R2.42)
Tampa Bay to win against Arizona odds 1.80
Philadelphia to win against Buffalo odds 1.90
Looks like we have a win of R2.42 last night

I'll check the games for tonight and post a few bets bellow...
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 4:21pm   #11
 
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Quantt started this thread Bets for 20171215 (R3.48)

Carolina to win against Buffalo odds 1.65
Dallas to win against New Jersey odds 1.60
Toronto to win against Detroit odds 1.70

The odds where actually better by 1R last night, so maybe I have to bet one day in advance
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 6:59pm   #12
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Originally Posted by Quantt View Post
Bets for 20171215 (R3.48)

Carolina to win against Buffalo odds 1.65
Dallas to win against New Jersey odds 1.60
Toronto to win against Detroit odds 1.70

The odds where actually better by 1R last night, so maybe I have to bet one day in advance
Odds change according to latest information. eg a key player maybe unfit and doesn't make a start, which could alter the shape of the game and result in a loss. The nearer then that we are to start time, the more information is priced in.
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 7:34pm   #13
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... (good thing TWD is done for now, because I just can't handle two "hate watching" things in my life :-) ...
Let's not even mention that disappointment!
I have been threatening to stop watching it for the last 4 weeks because I just can't deal with the emotional stress...

Give me the psychological hardship involved with a 30% trading win rate, any day!
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 8:03pm   #14
 
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Odds change according to latest information. eg a key player maybe unfit and doesn't make a start, which could alter the shape of the game and result in a loss. The nearer then that we are to start time, the more information is priced in.
Thanks CV, for some reason I tough the odds were baked in for the moment after the games finished last evening and before the morning practices, but obviously I am mistaken... Maybe someone slipped on the way home or a coach kicked someone ass hard enough :-)

Let's see if we are going to win tonight, because if we lose, odds won't matter much...
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 8:05pm   #15
 
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Let's not even mention that disappointment!
I have been threatening to stop watching it for the last 4 weeks because I just can't deal with the emotional stress...

Give me the psychological hardship involved with a 30% trading win rate, any day!
LOL, same here! I really think they should have ended this show few seasons ago, as my wife said, maybe when they reached CDC would have been a good ending for example...
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 8:14pm   #16
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LOL, same here! I really think they should have ended this show few seasons ago, as my wife said, maybe when they reached CDC would have been a good ending for example...
Yes.
They have been dragging it out far too much!
I know there's money to be made in shows/movies/plays but when they lose sight of it being a performance or a piece of art, it's sad...and boring...a crying shame.

I think they should play this season out as they plan to but then increase the spending and go out next season with a bang! Kill everyone if they want but make it a decisive season!

Just going to throw it out there... Hannibal... amazing show but got cancelled because of it being a small cult following.
They knew it was being cancelled, so the show ends great! Not just a sudden stop
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