My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

This is a discussion on My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by FXX I missed a nice trade on GBPAUD post GDP but to be fair i wasn't all ...

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Old Oct 25, 2017, 1:47pm   #33
Joined May 2012
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Originally Posted by FXX View Post
I missed a nice trade on GBPAUD post GDP but to be fair i wasn't all too interested in it which really isn't great since the sentiment opportunity was right there for the taking.
With the market anything can happen. A supposedly non event turned out to be far from it. I guess just go with the flow. Picked up 36 pips on the GBPUSD and 50 pips on the GBPJPY. The market reaction is far more than the GDP print in my view. Reuters is suggesting that November hike is back on the agenda.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 1:51pm   #34
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread Canada policy decision analysis from Ransquawk

There are several key points supporting the argument that rates will be kept on hold: -
1) The 50bps of cuts implemented in 2015 have now been unwound, and the Bank now needs time to assess the impact of
its recent hikes and the impact of a stronger CAD
2) NAFTA risks appear to be rising
3) New macroprudential measures are due to be implemented on housing in January 2018
4) An apparent moderation in economic data
5) More measured BoC rhetoric in recent public addresses

Market pricing of an October hike has eased alongside the above developments, now pricing around a 25% chance of further
tightening at the upcoming decision.
The paring back of expectations roughly coincides with a speech made by BoC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane on 18th
September, in which he underscored the importance of the Canadian economy’s sensitivity to the recent tightening and a stronger
CAD.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 2:15pm   #35
FXX
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FXX started this thread Taken a 16 pip scalp on AUDSUD @ 0.7702 which is a great profit taking level for EU session trades on sentiment. It tried to break the level and failed, tried again after USD data and failed.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 3:11pm   #36
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread long USDCAD @1.27378 on statement with more of a cautionary tone towards future hikes. USA data printed better than expected durable goods and a smasher housing print. Looking to target short of the prev swing low at 1.28499 or sooner depending on where the trade is later in the day (sentiment trade that will dominate the session)
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 4:09pm   #37
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread
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Originally Posted by FXX View Post
long USDCAD @1.27378 on statement with more of a cautionary tone towards future hikes. USA data printed better than expected durable goods and a smasher housing print. Looking to target short of the prev swing low at 1.28499 or sooner depending on where the trade is later in the day (sentiment trade that will dominate the session)
Decided to take 28 pips profit and look to getting back in on a retrace
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 9:04pm   #38
Joined May 2012
With the BOC statement, the probability of a rate hike this year is less than 30 % according to the overnight index swaps market.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 9:26pm   #39
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread
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Originally Posted by Brumby View Post
With the BOC statement, the probability of a rate hike this year is less than 30 % according to the overnight index swaps market.
Are you getting that data from eikon or somewhere else? I really need to get back onto that terminal. Ransquawk is brilliant but there are bits like this and economic releases (txt faster than squawk but squawk better at analysis and commentary). I see they discontinued my favourite econ screen which was noticeably faster than the economy tracker replacement.

Anyway it is definitely looking slim at the moment for Cad hike. Price is holding steady and I am looking to get back in on a retrace for another run at the high.

You have any thoughts on the ecb tomorrow? I will be looking at any dovish tone that kicks a rate hike ball further down the road. There was a comment today from the ecb about them extending the tapering at the same amount with the usual keeping it open until further notice theme.

In other news i see North Korea have again threatened an above Pacific nuke test stating its going to happen. That's going to be a huge risk off event and I am probably going to split a trade between yen and swissy just in case yen underperforms due to its location to NK

Account is growing, some way to go still until I can pump the account with more capital but seems to be headed in the right direction.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 9:49pm   #40
FXX
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FXX started this thread Here is that article

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/25/politi...eat/index.html
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