My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

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Old Oct 26, 2017, 4:17pm   #61
 
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adding bit more here long EUR/USD @ 1692
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 5:54pm   #62
 
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over 90, i'll add just a little more.
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 6:43pm   #63
 
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not waiting, add 1670
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 7:06pm   #64
 
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they had to take this lower, they must be true to the candle
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 8:56pm   #65
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they had to take this lower, they must be true to the candle
Your issue is trading against sentiment. It was a dovish ECB statement and there is some unwinding that is taking place. This is why trading technically alone can get you into trouble. There is a good chance this will continue as fair value is discovered so look to selling retracements. Just be cautioned that sentiment can change at any time.

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Old Oct 26, 2017, 9:01pm   #66
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The peculiar thing is they have always had the open ended clause in their statements. Since announcing tapering it was always "as long as necessary" and "beyond the horizon" so it is much of the same here and i think we might get a dovish stance from Dragi to try and moderate the currency strength risk.
Reading through the different reports yesterday, I think the market considers keeping the program open ended as dovish and was expecting some statement that the program will come to end in September.

The rates announcement on Reuters was delayed by probably about 3 secs and the market immediately dropped 20 pips thereafter. I took a short when the preliminary squawk came out about a minute after that at $1.17763. The position went in my favor for about 35 pips before I moved my stop to break even. Then Murphy' s law happened - my internet went down because of a bad storm. I had to sit it out and decided to go to bed. My stop was taken out for a 1 pips gain (enough to cover commission).

The consolation is my USDCAD long picked up 53 pips.
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 9:09pm   #67
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Reading through the different reports yesterday, I think the market considers keeping the program open ended as dovish and was expecting some statement that the program will come to end in September.

The rates announcement on Reuters was delayed by probably about 3 secs and the market immediately dropped 20 pips thereafter. I took a short when the preliminary squawk came out about a minute after that at $1.17763. The position went in my favor for about 35 pips before I moved my stop to break even. Then Murphy' s law happened - my internet went down because of a bad storm. I had to sit it out and decided to go to bed. My stop was taken out for a 1 pips gain (enough to cover commission).

The consolation is my USDCAD long picked up 53 pips.
I think we should see a continuation so more opportunity to come. I didn't get in and missed the retracement that took you out(that was the perfect entry location). I didn't get into the USDCAD trade as i was waiting for a pullback and wasn't happy opening on a breakout. Some lower tier USA data came out weaker and for some reason it just didn't feel right. nailed 30 pips off a pullback on USDZAR (continuation of yesterdays sentiment)
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 9:40pm   #68
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I think we should see a continuation so more opportunity to come. I didn't get in and missed the retracement that took you out(that was the perfect entry location).
This is when trading price action comes in after the fundamentals have set the tone. It was a beautiful down trend looking at the 1 min and 5 min charts during the NY session. In my experience when trading this type of trend, the price structure is obvious at the 1/5 min TF. I was watching the price action on the 1 min TF and did consider closing my position around 30 pips profit because the price action was looking to be bottoming for a rally and then the internet went down. I was initially aiming for 45 pips.

There are always other opportunities.
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Thanks! The following members like this post: FXX
Old Oct 26, 2017, 9:56pm   #69
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BOC Poloz made a dovish statement over CBC radio which hasn't crossed the wires yet. "There are a lot of things that have to come together before another hike".
This effectively rules out a rate hike in December.
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Old Oct 27, 2017, 12:42am   #70
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FXX started this thread key areas for me in that statement are

-inflation main focus

-some sugar coating growth stats

-currency strength concerns

-more inflation concerns

-"all euro area countries needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost euro area productivity"


Then key elements from the speech

- decision on QE was not unanimous (the growing hike cheerleader squad)

- its not tapering its downsize (his words , translates into we are settling into cruise mode)

-some wishful thinking about ending QE in 2018 with a short taper

Last edited by FXX; Oct 27, 2017 at 12:49am.
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Old Oct 27, 2017, 12:43am   #71
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BOC Poloz made a dovish statement over CBC radio which hasn't crossed the wires yet. "There are a lot of things that have to come together before another hike".
This effectively rules out a rate hike in December.
was it this

"BoC Governor Poloz says expects rate hike to hit harder than in the past and that the central bank is most concerned how rate hikes will impact highly-indebted consumers, also says if economy continues to evolve, less stimulus is needed in future"
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Old Oct 27, 2017, 10:04am   #72
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FXX started this thread Today looking to any pullbacks to get back on board EURUSD,USDCAD,USDZAR
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Old Oct 27, 2017, 3:14pm   #73
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FXX started this thread Nailed 40 pops shorting USDZAR on fed chair announcement.
Powell is a known dove and therefore negative sentiment on the $
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 12:51am   #74
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Nailed 40 pops shorting USDZAR on fed chair announcement.
Powell is a known dove and therefore negative sentiment on the $
Good trade on the pop. Maybe you should specialise in USDZAR as it seems to be working out for you. How is the spread on this pair as I have never traded it or monitor its spread?

I think Powell is similar to Yellen in policy unlike Taylor who is deemed more hawkish.
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 9:43am   #75
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Good trade on the pop. Maybe you should specialise in USDZAR as it seems to be working out for you. How is the spread on this pair as I have never traded it or monitor its spread?

I think Powell is similar to Yellen in policy unlike Taylor who is deemed more hawkish.
The spread is not too bad around 4 pips but the pair is similar to GBPJPY in Volatility. It's driven by commodities but also has political and economical uncertainty overhang and was recently downgraded to junk status. I don't plan on specialising it just taking advantage of catalysts that will lead to further downgrades or any uptick in growth. Did you get any trading done on Friday?
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