My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

This is a discussion on My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by FXX Trade on USDZAR Ransquawk announcement: South African treasury says total borrowing requirement over the next 3 ...

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Old Oct 25, 2017, 1:17pm   #31
FXX
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Originally Posted by FXX View Post
Trade on USDZAR

Ransquawk announcement: South African treasury says total borrowing requirement over the next 3 years to rise to 1TRN Rand. They are on the brink of another downgrade and this will seal the deal in that regard.

entry 13.78199 target 13.85371
target hit
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 1:33pm   #32
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I am actually on the same page as you. The prospect of a deviation on GDP is slim. I will watch the release and see what it might bring but I don't think there will be any surprises.

I agree the opportunity will be with BOC later in the day or night in my case i.e. 1 am. I am reluctant to stay up for that. OIS data suggest that the probability of a hike in November is 18 % given what happened with retail sales last Friday. Should it be a surprise it would be a 200 - 400 pips move. The nugget will be in their statement and I am not good at interpreting changes in key words. Your Ransquawk will come in handy.
I missed a nice trade on GBPAUD post GDP but to be fair i wasn't all too interested in it which really isn't great since the sentiment opportunity was right there for the taking.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 1:47pm   #33
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I missed a nice trade on GBPAUD post GDP but to be fair i wasn't all too interested in it which really isn't great since the sentiment opportunity was right there for the taking.
With the market anything can happen. A supposedly non event turned out to be far from it. I guess just go with the flow. Picked up 36 pips on the GBPUSD and 50 pips on the GBPJPY. The market reaction is far more than the GDP print in my view. Reuters is suggesting that November hike is back on the agenda.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 1:51pm   #34
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FXX started this thread Canada policy decision analysis from Ransquawk

There are several key points supporting the argument that rates will be kept on hold: -
1) The 50bps of cuts implemented in 2015 have now been unwound, and the Bank now needs time to assess the impact of
its recent hikes and the impact of a stronger CAD
2) NAFTA risks appear to be rising
3) New macroprudential measures are due to be implemented on housing in January 2018
4) An apparent moderation in economic data
5) More measured BoC rhetoric in recent public addresses

Market pricing of an October hike has eased alongside the above developments, now pricing around a 25% chance of further
tightening at the upcoming decision.
The paring back of expectations roughly coincides with a speech made by BoC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane on 18th
September, in which he underscored the importance of the Canadian economy’s sensitivity to the recent tightening and a stronger
CAD.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 2:15pm   #35
FXX
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FXX started this thread Taken a 16 pip scalp on AUDSUD @ 0.7702 which is a great profit taking level for EU session trades on sentiment. It tried to break the level and failed, tried again after USD data and failed.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 3:11pm   #36
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FXX started this thread long USDCAD @1.27378 on statement with more of a cautionary tone towards future hikes. USA data printed better than expected durable goods and a smasher housing print. Looking to target short of the prev swing low at 1.28499 or sooner depending on where the trade is later in the day (sentiment trade that will dominate the session)
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 4:09pm   #37
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long USDCAD @1.27378 on statement with more of a cautionary tone towards future hikes. USA data printed better than expected durable goods and a smasher housing print. Looking to target short of the prev swing low at 1.28499 or sooner depending on where the trade is later in the day (sentiment trade that will dominate the session)
Decided to take 28 pips profit and look to getting back in on a retrace
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 9:04pm   #38
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With the BOC statement, the probability of a rate hike this year is less than 30 % according to the overnight index swaps market.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 9:26pm   #39
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With the BOC statement, the probability of a rate hike this year is less than 30 % according to the overnight index swaps market.
Are you getting that data from eikon or somewhere else? I really need to get back onto that terminal. Ransquawk is brilliant but there are bits like this and economic releases (txt faster than squawk but squawk better at analysis and commentary). I see they discontinued my favourite econ screen which was noticeably faster than the economy tracker replacement.

Anyway it is definitely looking slim at the moment for Cad hike. Price is holding steady and I am looking to get back in on a retrace for another run at the high.

You have any thoughts on the ecb tomorrow? I will be looking at any dovish tone that kicks a rate hike ball further down the road. There was a comment today from the ecb about them extending the tapering at the same amount with the usual keeping it open until further notice theme.

In other news i see North Korea have again threatened an above Pacific nuke test stating its going to happen. That's going to be a huge risk off event and I am probably going to split a trade between yen and swissy just in case yen underperforms due to its location to NK

Account is growing, some way to go still until I can pump the account with more capital but seems to be headed in the right direction.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 9:49pm   #40
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FXX started this thread Here is that article

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/25/politi...eat/index.html
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 10:14pm   #41
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Are you getting that data from eikon or somewhere else?
It was from a Reuters report. My subscription is to FX only,not the full suite. I agree Elkon has its usefulness but so is Ransquawk.

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Anyway it is definitely looking slim at the moment for Cad hike. Price is holding steady and I am looking to get back in on a retrace for another run at the high.
I believe it was 48 % before the BOC statement and now is less than 30 %.

I slept through the action and like you I am looking for a retrace. Typically strong moves like this briefly retrace and then channel up provided it still has another leg to the momentum. I need to see the market build some technical price structure to trade. The fundamentals has done its job and now the next leg (if there is one) is pure technical trading

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You have any thoughts on the ecb tomorrow? I will be looking at any dovish tone that kicks a rate hike ball further down the road. There was a comment today from the ecb about them extending the tapering at the same amount with the usual keeping it open until further notice theme.
I will do the research today on how I might trade ECB. I think the market focus seems to be on the size of the tapering and duration. The range is 40 to 20 Billion Euro.

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In other news i see North Korea have again threatened an above Pacific nuke test stating its going to happen. That's going to be a huge risk off event and I am probably going to split a trade between yen and swissy just in case yen underperforms due to its location to NK
That explains the drop. I got out of my USDJPY trade last night on the spike. With hindsight it looks like I got out at the top.
That also explains why my GBPJPY limit buy got triggered. That helped me to pick up another 20 pips which I closed when I woke up as I did not like the retrace price structure. It looks like there is another down leg to it.


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Account is growing, some way to go still until I can pump the account with more capital but seems to be headed in the right direction.
Fundamentals and Technical is the way to go. I am confident you will meet yourgoal.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 11:20pm   #42
Joined May 2012
Preliminary thoughts on ECB.

If hawkish, buy EUR against either NZD/CAD/AUD

Stay out of JPY as fatty Kim might anytime lob a spanner.

If dovish, sell EURUSD. I can't think of another pair that might fit the bill

There was an article yesterday in Forexlive that outlined the different tapering scenarios in summary form. I am trying to find it and will post it if I can locate it.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 11:33pm   #43
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[IMG]Click the image to open in full size.[/IMG]
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 8:03am   #44
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread Morning

Just mulling the durable goods numbers yesterday and wondering if they are a false positive off the back of hurricane distruction. Yesterday the snp had the largest down day in a while so I am going to be watching those markets a little more today.

Will be doing my assessment of pairing for eu in the next hour and will post the list. I want to spend some time on the last statement and data points since.
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Old Oct 26, 2017, 10:01am   #45
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread Trade watch for the morning

Off the back of yesterday I have the following on my watch list:

GBPCAD

No UK or Canada data out today so looking to continue sentiment and buy any pullbacks for a session trade.

USDCAD

No sentiment changing data out today but will keep an eye out for news relating to the Feds new captain. Unless related info comes out to change sentiment I will be looking to continue yesterdays sentiment on a pullback

ECB

Notes from last statement:

- inflation will gradually head to levels in line with its inflation aim, it has yet to translate sufficiently into stronger inflation dynamics.

- the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability

- Measures of underlying inflation have ticked up slightly in recent months but, overall, remain at subdued levels. Therefore, a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to gradually build up and support headline inflation developments in the medium term.

Notes on data since last statement:

- unemployment rate unchanged
- inflation rate unchanged
- inflation m/m 0.1 uptick from last reading (not really much of an improvement)
- core cpi index (negligible uptick)
- core inflation rate is down 0.1
- trade balance down
- exports down
- manufacturing pmi marginal uptick
- services pmi marginal down tick
- retail sales down
- construction and housing down

expectations are the ECB will lower bond purchases to 30bln and extend to Sept 2018

In agreement with you Brumby with your EU counterparts. My order preference for hawkish tone is:

CAD
ZAR
NZD
AUS - last in the list as sentiment of that CPI is aging

neutral tone - wont trade EU (where my bias is at the moment)

dovish tone my pair list is:

USD
GBP
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