My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

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Old Dec 13, 2017, 2:30am   #217
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Where do you guys go for sentiment indication?
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Old Dec 13, 2017, 10:25am   #218
FXX
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Where do you guys go for sentiment indication?
News feeds and previous sessions.

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Old Dec 13, 2017, 10:06pm   #219
FXX
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FXX started this thread Quick update for the week. The only trade so far has been tonight with the fed where i took 28 pips long GBPUSD. Looking ahead to ausi employment, UK policy tomorrow followed by USA core sales. if nothing comes up then ill be shutting down trading until Jan.

Last edited by FXX; Dec 13, 2017 at 10:21pm.
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Old Dec 14, 2017, 12:39am   #220
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News feeds and previous sessions.

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I've been looking into sentiment a bit lately.
Been using the net long/short of the broker IG which is available on the DailyFX site mainly but I was thinking that maybe I should combine the net long/short from the 2-3 biggest retail brokers in the world and then funnel it all through something and into 1 combined indication of global retail trader sentiment. Using a contrarian strategy to capitalize.
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Old Dec 14, 2017, 8:56am   #221
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I've been looking into sentiment a bit lately.
Been using the net long/short of the broker IG which is available on the DailyFX site mainly but I was thinking that maybe I should combine the net long/short from the 2-3 biggest retail brokers in the world and then funnel it all through something and into 1 combined indication of global retail trader sentiment. Using a contrarian strategy to capitalize.
Don't waste your time on those. As you know most retail traders lose so you won't get a credible direction from their aggregate positions. Unfortunately we retail traders don't have the luxury of a research team so we have to do the work of 2 people. Start with the central banks, their monetary policy and speeches. You should get their forecasts, expectations and concerns, and what they are watching. Together with tier 1 economic data, you will get an idea of which are strong or weak and where they are in the economic cycle.
Next step is to create a list of strong to weak as a general guide of what pairs to trade. The final piece, this is sentiment, you get it from a news feed and most recent tier 1 economic releases. What you are looking for is an alignment of sentiment with the analysis you did previously. So let's say UK is strong and Canada is weak though your research. Yesterday (or today) UK Gdp beat expectations. Later in the day Canadian data comes out weak. Now you have sentiment that aligns with the bigger picture. If oil is also dropping then you have a very good opportunity to buy sterling against Canadian dollars. Now you just apply your chosen technical setup or if it is strong just enter at market. Targets should be reasonable (I target between 15 and 100 pips depending on the strength of sentiment).

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Old Dec 14, 2017, 9:26am   #222
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Hey Brumby, been a while are you keeping well?

I noticed that but not giving it any serious thought. The fed are highly focused on wage growth and inflation and both have been soft. I just can't see them raising by more than expected especially when the speeches have all reiterated that slow and steady hikes and data dependent and the fed are not in the business of surprising.
Well the market did sell the fact on FOMC. I slept through it though. Noticed that you did picked up some pips on the news. Congrats.
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Old Dec 14, 2017, 11:13pm   #223
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Don't waste your time on those. As you know most retail traders lose so you won't get a credible direction from their aggregate positions. Unfortunately we retail traders don't have the luxury of a research team so we have to do the work of 2 people. Start with the central banks, their monetary policy and speeches. You should get their forecasts, expectations and concerns, and what they are watching. Together with tier 1 economic data, you will get an idea of which are strong or weak and where they are in the economic cycle.
Next step is to create a list of strong to weak as a general guide of what pairs to trade. The final piece, this is sentiment, you get it from a news feed and most recent tier 1 economic releases. What you are looking for is an alignment of sentiment with the analysis you did previously. So let's say UK is strong and Canada is weak though your research. Yesterday (or today) UK Gdp beat expectations. Later in the day Canadian data comes out weak. Now you have sentiment that aligns with the bigger picture. If oil is also dropping then you have a very good opportunity to buy sterling against Canadian dollars. Now you just apply your chosen technical setup or if it is strong just enter at market. Targets should be reasonable (I target between 15 and 100 pips depending on the strength of sentiment).

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But surely the fact that most retail traders are wrong, me taking up the opposite positions to them puts me on the side of right, crudely speaking.
I was reading that one should look for at least retail traders to be 2 or 3/1 net one way or the other...then I should be looking for entries to enter to the other side...


Thanks for the explanation too, very helpful process to drum home!
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