Irrefutable evidence that the UK Banking Sector is now part of the Borg collective
We used the following blog entry to explain the basic concepts behind trending and introduce technical analysis to our club members. It was a real laugh to write, and hopefully you will enjoy it.
Have the Borg assimilated the banking sector
Remember to click on all the links in the blog to get the full value out of it.
We used the following blog entry to explain the basic concepts behind trending and introduce technical analysis to our club members. It was a real laugh to write, and hopefully you will enjoy it.
Have the Borg assimilated the banking sector
Remember to click on all the links in the blog to get the full value out of it.
The Southwest LUV affair
It feels as if we are in the midst of a real battle between the bulls and the bears. The New York Stock Exchange is bashing its head of 9090, the NASDAQ appears to be consolidating and moving sideways, and the Dow is thumping its head of the 12,355 level and even tried to climb above it.
Eariler on in the week at our club meeting we reduced our world of potential investments to Walgreen (WAG), Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). It was agreed that John and Tobin would watch LUV; Vicky and Aine are going to watch ANF; Alex, Carmen and I are going watch WAG. Carmen suggested that Value Line has lowered WAG’s timeliness so we will need to review this to see why they have done it.
With regards to LUV, John and Tobin decided that they wanted to go long when the daily stochastic fell under 20% followed by a crossover on the daily stochastic and MACD. These conditions were met on after market close on December 11th, as per the following timetotrade alert:
We are now back in the game with LUV at $15.81.
Click here for our previous blog entries on LUV
It feels as if we are in the midst of a real battle between the bulls and the bears. The New York Stock Exchange is bashing its head of 9090, the NASDAQ appears to be consolidating and moving sideways, and the Dow is thumping its head of the 12,355 level and even tried to climb above it.
Eariler on in the week at our club meeting we reduced our world of potential investments to Walgreen (WAG), Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). It was agreed that John and Tobin would watch LUV; Vicky and Aine are going to watch ANF; Alex, Carmen and I are going watch WAG. Carmen suggested that Value Line has lowered WAG’s timeliness so we will need to review this to see why they have done it.
With regards to LUV, John and Tobin decided that they wanted to go long when the daily stochastic fell under 20% followed by a crossover on the daily stochastic and MACD. These conditions were met on after market close on December 11th, as per the following timetotrade alert:
We are now back in the game with LUV at $15.81.
Click here for our previous blog entries on LUV
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Now that I've worked out how to add images, here is the Borg post.Sensatus said:
Let’s start by bringing everyone up to speed by explaining who the Borg are. The Borg are a fictional race of cyborgs that are thought to exist only in the Star Trek universe, or at least that is what they would have you think. The Borg are driven by their relentless pursuit to assimilate the known universe into their collective consciousness, using advanced technical means and apparently resistance is futile.
Having recently looked at some stocks in the UK banking sector, it could be argued that the Borg do indeed exist and have succeeded in assimilating fund managers and possibly bank managers into their collective consciousness and technical world. To make matters worse, it looks like resistance is indeed futile! Consider the recent unsuccessful attempts by some of the banking sector stocks to break through historical resistance trend lines.
To support this hypothesis, consider the following evidence. As Exhibit ‘A’ we present a five year weekly interval price chart for Barclays Bank (BARC.L):
Note how investors have been buying when the stock price hit the support trend line and selling when the stock price hit the resistance trend line over the last 4 years. It looks like the market is acting like it is part of a collective consciousness, buying at support and selling at resistance. Possibly this explains the whispering in coffee houses and bars around the Square Mile; something to do with ‘Operation Bull Market’? Could early 2003 mark the start of the Borg invasion of the banking sector? It is also interesting to note that over the last 4 years, any attempt to break through the resistance or support trend lines has been futile.
As Exhibit ‘B’ we present the price movement of the HSBC Bank (HSBA.L) over the last 5 years. Again there is evidence to suggest that the Borg took control and began assimilating the fund managers into their collective consciousness in 2003. Once again they appear to have used their ability to analyse events from a technical perspective to their advantage.
So what can we learn from the Borg?
* Firstly it would appear that they buy when the stock price hits a support trend line, and then sell when a stock price hits a resistance trend line.
* Secondly it would appear that their strategy is based on years of historical data particularly when establishing trend line patterns.
* Lastly it would appear that their preference is to form parallel support and resistance trend lines, however they have been known to experiment with alternative geometric shapes.
Will the Borg assimilation continue unabated, or will the secret society of fundamental analysts save the day? Time will tell.
One last thing for you to thing about. Once upon a time if you went into your local bank branch and asked for a decision on a loan, the local bank manager was ‘empowered’, as they would say today, to make that decision. It now appears that every time you want a decision from your local bank manager, the response is, “I will need to get head office approval on that”.
[You need to click on the links within the article to get the full value out of this post]
Another forest disappears, while HSBC looks like it has found support
Monday, December 11th, 2006
We’ve just finished our third ‘Sensatus Investment Club’ meeting! Somehow the use of the exclamation mark seems warranted; maybe it is the sense of achievement of having eventually completed all of our paper work. From reviewing our club treasurers file, it is truly amazing the amount of paper work bureaucrats have created. People involved in money laundering should be really ashamed of themselves, as due to their actions each time an investment club is formed, a forest disappears.
Alas, down to the business of the day, HSBC (HBSA.L). In an earlier post on HSBC we had been alerted when it pulled back to test support at the 920 pence level, having broke out of its long term trend. What we then wanted to see happen, was a change of trend reflected on the daily MACD, with the price holding the 920 pence support level. As a result we set up a timetotrade alert that would notify us when there was a positive daily MACD crossover. If you would like more information on this trading strategy, click here to watch a screen cast on this very topic.
As you can see from the following alert, our entry conditions have now been met, and it looks like HSBC has found support at the 920 pence level.
Technically it looks like HSBC is ready to break to the upside, with all of the indicators suggesting that now is the time to take a long position i.e. the daily stochastic is under 20, the RSI is under 30 and the MACD has rolled over at a support level; is that Borg voices I hear in my head? Ok so HSBC looks ready to go, however before we run off investing our hard earned cash, let’s take a look at the FTSE 100 to see how it is ticking along.
As you can see from the following one year daily interval FTSE 100 chart, the FTSE pulled back to test its 6 month support trend line, which it held, and is now in an upwards trend. As they say, ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’; let us see if HSBC has any holes in it.
To summarise, technically it looks like HSBC has found support and the market is making it way back to test recent highs, so let us stick a stake in the ground to mark this momentous occasion by noting the price of HSBC at 923 pence. So here we go, three in a row staying on black. To the downside, if HSBC drops below 900 pence we would consider that bearish, and to the upside it looks like HSBC could make its way back up to the 950 to 960 pence range in the short term, but we will talk about that in another post.
Click here to see previous posts on HSBC were we discuss why we think 920 was a significant support level
Monday, December 11th, 2006
We’ve just finished our third ‘Sensatus Investment Club’ meeting! Somehow the use of the exclamation mark seems warranted; maybe it is the sense of achievement of having eventually completed all of our paper work. From reviewing our club treasurers file, it is truly amazing the amount of paper work bureaucrats have created. People involved in money laundering should be really ashamed of themselves, as due to their actions each time an investment club is formed, a forest disappears.
Alas, down to the business of the day, HSBC (HBSA.L). In an earlier post on HSBC we had been alerted when it pulled back to test support at the 920 pence level, having broke out of its long term trend. What we then wanted to see happen, was a change of trend reflected on the daily MACD, with the price holding the 920 pence support level. As a result we set up a timetotrade alert that would notify us when there was a positive daily MACD crossover. If you would like more information on this trading strategy, click here to watch a screen cast on this very topic.
As you can see from the following alert, our entry conditions have now been met, and it looks like HSBC has found support at the 920 pence level.
Technically it looks like HSBC is ready to break to the upside, with all of the indicators suggesting that now is the time to take a long position i.e. the daily stochastic is under 20, the RSI is under 30 and the MACD has rolled over at a support level; is that Borg voices I hear in my head? Ok so HSBC looks ready to go, however before we run off investing our hard earned cash, let’s take a look at the FTSE 100 to see how it is ticking along.
As you can see from the following one year daily interval FTSE 100 chart, the FTSE pulled back to test its 6 month support trend line, which it held, and is now in an upwards trend. As they say, ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’; let us see if HSBC has any holes in it.
To summarise, technically it looks like HSBC has found support and the market is making it way back to test recent highs, so let us stick a stake in the ground to mark this momentous occasion by noting the price of HSBC at 923 pence. So here we go, three in a row staying on black. To the downside, if HSBC drops below 900 pence we would consider that bearish, and to the upside it looks like HSBC could make its way back up to the 950 to 960 pence range in the short term, but we will talk about that in another post.
Click here to see previous posts on HSBC were we discuss why we think 920 was a significant support level
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The party lives on for Walgreen
Three back to back Christmas parties in one week are enough for any man. It started last Wednesday (December 13th) in Brighton with the Sensatus gang and Ian from Showmedo; followed by a get together in Soho, London with old friends from my Nortel days; then wrapped up on Friday night back in Brighton with friends from the Martlet Kayak Club celebrating their imminent departure to the Alps for a spot snowboarding and skiing. With all this excitement we did not get around to discussing Walgreen.
On our previous Walgreen post, we closed our position at $44.06 after we received a negative hourly interval MACD crossover. At that point in time we wanted to let WAG cool down after its rally. We were also concerned that the markets were having trouble breaking through the resistance levels that they were testing. On December 11th we received the following timetotrade alert, notifying us that Walgreen had pulled back slightly and formed a positive hourly interval MACD crossover:
When we received the alert, we were still undecided as to which way the markets were going to move and so decided to wait until the next low was formed to see if WAG was forming higher lows and if the markets had broken through their resistance levels. To notify us of the next low, we again used a timetotrade alert based on a positive hourly interval MACD crossover. On December 13th just as the parties where kicking off in Brighton we got the following alert on WAG:
After checking the markets, we opted to side with the bulls and go long on WAG by getting in at $43.97, as it looked like the NYSE was going to continue in an upward trend. As Carmen pointed out in our last club meeting, Value Line had lowered the timeliness ranking on WAG, however we decided to go with the current upward trend before moving on to greener pastures.
With regards to our exit strategy, we will review our position if the stock starts forming lower highs, and ideally in the short term the stock will work its way back to the old 2 year support / resistance level at approximately $46.25, which would yield a four or five percent gross return. To track the highs we are using hourly interval negative MACD crossovers, and since taking a position on WAG we have received the following alerts:
* 14 Dec 2006 15:00:00 EST Last Trade Price = $44.46
* 15 Dec 2006 14:00:00 EST Last Trade Price = $44.80
* 18 Dec 2006 13:00:00 EST Last Trade Price = $44.97
We will post the associated price and MACD charts when we next discuss WAG.
It is now getting into the Christmas period therefore we are expecting everything to slow down. To keep us informed about our open positions during this time frame, we’ve turned on the SMS alert notification feature on timetotrade.
Like the proverbial Christmas turkey we are now stuffed to the brim with our new investments. Let us see if Santa brings us a continued positive trend for being good hard working boys and girls.
To view all posts on Walgreen, click here
Three back to back Christmas parties in one week are enough for any man. It started last Wednesday (December 13th) in Brighton with the Sensatus gang and Ian from Showmedo; followed by a get together in Soho, London with old friends from my Nortel days; then wrapped up on Friday night back in Brighton with friends from the Martlet Kayak Club celebrating their imminent departure to the Alps for a spot snowboarding and skiing. With all this excitement we did not get around to discussing Walgreen.
On our previous Walgreen post, we closed our position at $44.06 after we received a negative hourly interval MACD crossover. At that point in time we wanted to let WAG cool down after its rally. We were also concerned that the markets were having trouble breaking through the resistance levels that they were testing. On December 11th we received the following timetotrade alert, notifying us that Walgreen had pulled back slightly and formed a positive hourly interval MACD crossover:
When we received the alert, we were still undecided as to which way the markets were going to move and so decided to wait until the next low was formed to see if WAG was forming higher lows and if the markets had broken through their resistance levels. To notify us of the next low, we again used a timetotrade alert based on a positive hourly interval MACD crossover. On December 13th just as the parties where kicking off in Brighton we got the following alert on WAG:
After checking the markets, we opted to side with the bulls and go long on WAG by getting in at $43.97, as it looked like the NYSE was going to continue in an upward trend. As Carmen pointed out in our last club meeting, Value Line had lowered the timeliness ranking on WAG, however we decided to go with the current upward trend before moving on to greener pastures.
With regards to our exit strategy, we will review our position if the stock starts forming lower highs, and ideally in the short term the stock will work its way back to the old 2 year support / resistance level at approximately $46.25, which would yield a four or five percent gross return. To track the highs we are using hourly interval negative MACD crossovers, and since taking a position on WAG we have received the following alerts:
* 14 Dec 2006 15:00:00 EST Last Trade Price = $44.46
* 15 Dec 2006 14:00:00 EST Last Trade Price = $44.80
* 18 Dec 2006 13:00:00 EST Last Trade Price = $44.97
We will post the associated price and MACD charts when we next discuss WAG.
It is now getting into the Christmas period therefore we are expecting everything to slow down. To keep us informed about our open positions during this time frame, we’ve turned on the SMS alert notification feature on timetotrade.
Like the proverbial Christmas turkey we are now stuffed to the brim with our new investments. Let us see if Santa brings us a continued positive trend for being good hard working boys and girls.
To view all posts on Walgreen, click here
Stick To Your Guns
There is an article titled, ‘Stick To Your Guns’, in the recent edition of Trader Monthly. It has been written by a poker player called Johnny Chan who has been 10 times World Series of Poker champion. The tag line for the article is, ‘Stay the course - [this] might often be a bad mantra for politicians, but it’s often sage wisdom in poker, and in trading’.
Firstly if you have not read Trader Monthly, it really is worth picking up a copy to experience the city trader bling factor. Upon turning the cover you are greeted by adds for a Bentley car, follow by a Breitling watch, a Edmiston yacht, a Koenigsegg sport car, plus features on relevant topics of the day such as the new Cessna ‘affordable’ private jet at a mere $2.5 million (which apparently is very easy to fly). We are talking about the bling of trading magazines.
The odd thing is, despite blogging on trading and making money, the bling materialistic side of life is not something that really appeals to me. I’ve found that you get little pleasure from owning material goods, however as our physics teacher used to say, “Money doesn’t bring happiness, but it does bring a pleasant sort of misery”. Donald Trump sums it up nicely, “Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.” That is were the real rush is; the pursuit of goals in the company of good friends.
So despite all the bling associated with Trader Magazine, the odd thing is, I find myself picking it up to read whenever a copy comes through the door. The appeal is in the lifestyle stories and short biographies on traders, business people and gamblers. Immediately this raises the question as to how closely the personalities of each are intertwined and what can one group learn from the other, which brings us back to Johnny Chan’s article.
In the article Johnny talks through how he played out a poker hand. He starts of with a good hand and decides to start the betting lightly to try and get some action going. Unfortunately his main rival bites and bets heavily before the flop, which causes Johnny to question his strategy in the heat of battle. He then reminds himself that the reason he bet lightly was to give others the confidence to place larger bets. He holds his nerve and then goes on to collect the pot and then win the match on the next hand. The moral of the story is, before you make an investment decision, decide upon your strategy then hold your nerve unless the underlying reasons behind your strategy change.
Yesterday our portfolio tested our nerve after Southwest airlines got hit over concerns about oil prices. In the back of our minds there is a feeling of fear associated with the markets moving to levels that have not been seen for many years, as this raises the question as to whether or not the markets have the confidence to stay bullish. Then we are reminded of our game plan, which is to stay bullish as long as the markets keep setting higher highs; but there in maybe lies the source of the problem. The NYSE and DOW are setting higher highs, but the NASDAQ and Footsie look as if they are starting to move sideways into a consolidation pattern.
Like Johnny during his moment of doubt, we remind ourselves of why we got into our investments and ask ourselves if anything has changed to cause us to re-adjust our strategy. HSBC was bought because the technical set up was good; to date it has held the 920 pence support level and has made one attempt to break out. Typically a stock will test its support once or twice before breaking out, so HSBC is performing as expected. Southwest Airlines was bought because we believe it is undervalued due to fear in the sector. It is currently getting hit due to fear associated with increases in the price of oil, which will hopefully be offset by the recently reported increases in November passenger traffic in Tampa and overall increases in ticket prices; Walgreen was bought because they were oversold due to fear and hit a solid technical buy level. Walgreen is now performing as the fear factor behind the sell off is being replaced with factual company performance figures. Now all we need is a similar spark to ignite HSBC and Southwest. All in all we are still comfortable with our investments, so now we wait and let the market come to us.
As for the new ‘affordable’ Cessna jet, we’ve decided we will need two, and we want to get them fitted with big paint ball guns for dog fights. Maybe we should be neighbourly and invite Larry Ellison?
There is an article titled, ‘Stick To Your Guns’, in the recent edition of Trader Monthly. It has been written by a poker player called Johnny Chan who has been 10 times World Series of Poker champion. The tag line for the article is, ‘Stay the course - [this] might often be a bad mantra for politicians, but it’s often sage wisdom in poker, and in trading’.
Firstly if you have not read Trader Monthly, it really is worth picking up a copy to experience the city trader bling factor. Upon turning the cover you are greeted by adds for a Bentley car, follow by a Breitling watch, a Edmiston yacht, a Koenigsegg sport car, plus features on relevant topics of the day such as the new Cessna ‘affordable’ private jet at a mere $2.5 million (which apparently is very easy to fly). We are talking about the bling of trading magazines.
The odd thing is, despite blogging on trading and making money, the bling materialistic side of life is not something that really appeals to me. I’ve found that you get little pleasure from owning material goods, however as our physics teacher used to say, “Money doesn’t bring happiness, but it does bring a pleasant sort of misery”. Donald Trump sums it up nicely, “Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.” That is were the real rush is; the pursuit of goals in the company of good friends.
So despite all the bling associated with Trader Magazine, the odd thing is, I find myself picking it up to read whenever a copy comes through the door. The appeal is in the lifestyle stories and short biographies on traders, business people and gamblers. Immediately this raises the question as to how closely the personalities of each are intertwined and what can one group learn from the other, which brings us back to Johnny Chan’s article.
In the article Johnny talks through how he played out a poker hand. He starts of with a good hand and decides to start the betting lightly to try and get some action going. Unfortunately his main rival bites and bets heavily before the flop, which causes Johnny to question his strategy in the heat of battle. He then reminds himself that the reason he bet lightly was to give others the confidence to place larger bets. He holds his nerve and then goes on to collect the pot and then win the match on the next hand. The moral of the story is, before you make an investment decision, decide upon your strategy then hold your nerve unless the underlying reasons behind your strategy change.
Yesterday our portfolio tested our nerve after Southwest airlines got hit over concerns about oil prices. In the back of our minds there is a feeling of fear associated with the markets moving to levels that have not been seen for many years, as this raises the question as to whether or not the markets have the confidence to stay bullish. Then we are reminded of our game plan, which is to stay bullish as long as the markets keep setting higher highs; but there in maybe lies the source of the problem. The NYSE and DOW are setting higher highs, but the NASDAQ and Footsie look as if they are starting to move sideways into a consolidation pattern.
Like Johnny during his moment of doubt, we remind ourselves of why we got into our investments and ask ourselves if anything has changed to cause us to re-adjust our strategy. HSBC was bought because the technical set up was good; to date it has held the 920 pence support level and has made one attempt to break out. Typically a stock will test its support once or twice before breaking out, so HSBC is performing as expected. Southwest Airlines was bought because we believe it is undervalued due to fear in the sector. It is currently getting hit due to fear associated with increases in the price of oil, which will hopefully be offset by the recently reported increases in November passenger traffic in Tampa and overall increases in ticket prices; Walgreen was bought because they were oversold due to fear and hit a solid technical buy level. Walgreen is now performing as the fear factor behind the sell off is being replaced with factual company performance figures. Now all we need is a similar spark to ignite HSBC and Southwest. All in all we are still comfortable with our investments, so now we wait and let the market come to us.
As for the new ‘affordable’ Cessna jet, we’ve decided we will need two, and we want to get them fitted with big paint ball guns for dog fights. Maybe we should be neighbourly and invite Larry Ellison?
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Another home run for Walgreen
Walgreen just hit our price target this morning when it tested the two year support level as illustrated in the following chart.
We closed out at $46.36, which represents a gross gain of 5.44% in eight days. Now we will let it cool off again and wait for the next low before deciding whether or not to get back in. As ever we will use a timetotrade positive hourly interval MACD alert to notify us when our entry conditions have been met.
For historical posts on WAG, click here.
Walgreen just hit our price target this morning when it tested the two year support level as illustrated in the following chart.
We closed out at $46.36, which represents a gross gain of 5.44% in eight days. Now we will let it cool off again and wait for the next low before deciding whether or not to get back in. As ever we will use a timetotrade positive hourly interval MACD alert to notify us when our entry conditions have been met.
For historical posts on WAG, click here.
Delayed versus real time data - does it really matter?
While away from my computer this afternoon, the following Walgreen timetotrade alert was sent as a text message to my mobile phone.
An alert had been set up to notify us when there was a positive hourly interval MACD crossover on Walgreen, with a personal message to remind us to check if WAG was forming higher lows. As the alert was based on delayed data, the alert conditions were met at 10:00 EST and the alert was received at 10:21 EST.
When the alert was received my reaction was two fold; joy and regret. It was brilliant that WAG had gapped up through the potential area of resistance in the $46.25 range. This means it now has the potential to make its way up to the $50 range were it left off before the fear factor associated with WalMart selling drugs kicked in; however this was contrasted by a secondary emotion of loss as a result of getting out yesterday at $46.36.
While walking back to the office, my mind started to reflect on the decision to close out the WAG position yesterday at $46.36 and would I do it again with hindsight. The answer was yes, as the stock has pulled back a number of times in the past when it hit the $46.25 resistance level. Secondly, we wanted to see WAG break through the potential area of resistance in the $46.25 range, and then pick it up on the next low; however we had hoped that would be nearer $46.25.
When I sat down at my computer and opened up the trading software, I got a really pleasant surprise. WAG had pulled back to $46.35 to test the $46.25 support level, which it appeared to be holding. We quickly jumped at the opportunity to get back in at $46.35, as illustrated in the following chart:
This raises a question that has cropped up several times; how important is real time data for swing or long term traders, who tend to keep positions open for days rather than minutes or hours? If we had been using real time data our club would have got back into WAG in the $46.90 range, rather than $46.35. When we bought WAG on the previous trade we received an alert when WAG was at $43.91 and on that occasion the price 20 minutes later was $43.97, therefore over time does it all simply balance out? It would be interesting to hear your views on this? Do you use real time data, 15-20 minute delayed data, or end of day data and what advantage do you think your choice gives you?
While away from my computer this afternoon, the following Walgreen timetotrade alert was sent as a text message to my mobile phone.
An alert had been set up to notify us when there was a positive hourly interval MACD crossover on Walgreen, with a personal message to remind us to check if WAG was forming higher lows. As the alert was based on delayed data, the alert conditions were met at 10:00 EST and the alert was received at 10:21 EST.
When the alert was received my reaction was two fold; joy and regret. It was brilliant that WAG had gapped up through the potential area of resistance in the $46.25 range. This means it now has the potential to make its way up to the $50 range were it left off before the fear factor associated with WalMart selling drugs kicked in; however this was contrasted by a secondary emotion of loss as a result of getting out yesterday at $46.36.
While walking back to the office, my mind started to reflect on the decision to close out the WAG position yesterday at $46.36 and would I do it again with hindsight. The answer was yes, as the stock has pulled back a number of times in the past when it hit the $46.25 resistance level. Secondly, we wanted to see WAG break through the potential area of resistance in the $46.25 range, and then pick it up on the next low; however we had hoped that would be nearer $46.25.
When I sat down at my computer and opened up the trading software, I got a really pleasant surprise. WAG had pulled back to $46.35 to test the $46.25 support level, which it appeared to be holding. We quickly jumped at the opportunity to get back in at $46.35, as illustrated in the following chart:
This raises a question that has cropped up several times; how important is real time data for swing or long term traders, who tend to keep positions open for days rather than minutes or hours? If we had been using real time data our club would have got back into WAG in the $46.90 range, rather than $46.35. When we bought WAG on the previous trade we received an alert when WAG was at $43.91 and on that occasion the price 20 minutes later was $43.97, therefore over time does it all simply balance out? It would be interesting to hear your views on this? Do you use real time data, 15-20 minute delayed data, or end of day data and what advantage do you think your choice gives you?
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Mr. Charts
Legendary member
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Forgive my ignorance, but I have never been a member of an investment club, nor would I ever want to be, but why is your club a limited company?
Richard
Richard
Hi Richard
Our club is formed as a partnership not as a limited company. The Sensatus Investment Club is mostly made up of members from Sensatus Ltd, the developers behind timetotrade, so maybe this is the limited company that you are referring to.
As for not wanting to be part of an investment club, having traded alone for twelve years, I can fully understand your point of view and did not think it would appeal to me. The original reason for forming the Sensatus investment club, was to provide a support structure for Sensatus employees that were new to trading. We wanted to create an environment were we could learn from each other and pool together small amounts of money to improve our buying power. Since then some friends have asked to join and it has started to take on a life of its own. It will be interesting to observe how well the club performs as it grows in membership.
Secondly there is the whole social element, which is great fun. It is nice having people to share the highs and lows that come with investing, but I can fully understand that it does not suit everyone's personality. From talking to other investment clubs, most members go on to set up their own trading accounts when they build up the necessary level of confidence, however they tend to stay in the investment club for the social side of things and trading ideas.
Best wishes
Dary
Our club is formed as a partnership not as a limited company. The Sensatus Investment Club is mostly made up of members from Sensatus Ltd, the developers behind timetotrade, so maybe this is the limited company that you are referring to.
As for not wanting to be part of an investment club, having traded alone for twelve years, I can fully understand your point of view and did not think it would appeal to me. The original reason for forming the Sensatus investment club, was to provide a support structure for Sensatus employees that were new to trading. We wanted to create an environment were we could learn from each other and pool together small amounts of money to improve our buying power. Since then some friends have asked to join and it has started to take on a life of its own. It will be interesting to observe how well the club performs as it grows in membership.
Secondly there is the whole social element, which is great fun. It is nice having people to share the highs and lows that come with investing, but I can fully understand that it does not suit everyone's personality. From talking to other investment clubs, most members go on to set up their own trading accounts when they build up the necessary level of confidence, however they tend to stay in the investment club for the social side of things and trading ideas.
Best wishes
Dary
Mr. Charts
Legendary member
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Ah, I see.
Thank you for your comments.
Richard
Thank you for your comments.
Richard
Know your numbers
Like so many things in life, there are differing views on how to best carry out fundamental analysis of a company, such as those discussed in an earlier post on ‘strategies from the rich and famous‘.
When we are fundamentally assessing stocks, we use Value Line reports for US stocks and the TICN 4×4 fundamental analysis criterion that we where taught on the foundation MMCP course. The TICN 4×4 analysis criterion is based on the methodologies used by Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and John Templeton, but does not require a small army of analysts to carry out.
There was a recent article from The Motley Fool that talks about the average performance of S&P 500 companies, from a P/E, P/B, ROE, 5-Year Expected Growth Rate, Dividend Yield perspective. The theory is that companies that out perform the S&P 500 average will have the best price performance, so we decided to see how our investments measure up.
Currently we are long on Southwest Airlines, Walgreen and HSBC. Oh dear; after reviewing them against the TICN and Value Line criterion, only Walgreen measures up.
Southwest Airlines has now slipped down the TICN 4×4 rankings and Value Line has also lowered its timeliness rank two notches. HSBC was bought simply because of the technical set up and before buying it we only took a quick look at the last 5 years earnings growth, so for now we are going to exclude it.
The following table shows how our investments and stocks that we have been looking at measure up against the S&P 500 average (we have included Ambercrombie and Fitch as we talked about it in our last club meeting):
*The above information for LUV, WAG and ANF is based on Value Line reports. This differs from the source of information used by Motley Fool to determine the S&P 500 average figures therefore the underlying calculations will likely differ.
Out of the bunch LUV is definitely the weakest, however WAG and ANF meet the grade. When we close out our position on LUV it will be dropped from our watch list; we’ve had some nice trades on it but now it is not performing as planned.
Regarding Dividend Yield, all of our stocks reviewed are below the S&P 500 average, however this does not concern us. We would rather invest in companies that are re-investing their earnings to expand their business rather than paying out dividends.
Like so many things in life, there are differing views on how to best carry out fundamental analysis of a company, such as those discussed in an earlier post on ‘strategies from the rich and famous‘.
When we are fundamentally assessing stocks, we use Value Line reports for US stocks and the TICN 4×4 fundamental analysis criterion that we where taught on the foundation MMCP course. The TICN 4×4 analysis criterion is based on the methodologies used by Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and John Templeton, but does not require a small army of analysts to carry out.
There was a recent article from The Motley Fool that talks about the average performance of S&P 500 companies, from a P/E, P/B, ROE, 5-Year Expected Growth Rate, Dividend Yield perspective. The theory is that companies that out perform the S&P 500 average will have the best price performance, so we decided to see how our investments measure up.
Currently we are long on Southwest Airlines, Walgreen and HSBC. Oh dear; after reviewing them against the TICN and Value Line criterion, only Walgreen measures up.
Southwest Airlines has now slipped down the TICN 4×4 rankings and Value Line has also lowered its timeliness rank two notches. HSBC was bought simply because of the technical set up and before buying it we only took a quick look at the last 5 years earnings growth, so for now we are going to exclude it.
The following table shows how our investments and stocks that we have been looking at measure up against the S&P 500 average (we have included Ambercrombie and Fitch as we talked about it in our last club meeting):
*The above information for LUV, WAG and ANF is based on Value Line reports. This differs from the source of information used by Motley Fool to determine the S&P 500 average figures therefore the underlying calculations will likely differ.
Out of the bunch LUV is definitely the weakest, however WAG and ANF meet the grade. When we close out our position on LUV it will be dropped from our watch list; we’ve had some nice trades on it but now it is not performing as planned.
Regarding Dividend Yield, all of our stocks reviewed are below the S&P 500 average, however this does not concern us. We would rather invest in companies that are re-investing their earnings to expand their business rather than paying out dividends.
A volatile start to the 2007
European stocks continued to climb with the FTSE 100 closing at a new high of 6319 up 0.13%, the DAX up 1.3% and CAC 40 up 1.4%. HSBC rose 1.28% closing at 951.50, breaking through the key one year 947.50 pence support & resistance level. There was a real mixed bag of news coming out of the US today, which may put the FTSE under pressure in the coming days. Failure for HSBC to hold support at the 947 pence level would be considered bearish.
In the US the markets reacted well to news that US manufacturing expanded in December, plus higher than expected consumer sentiment combined with a drop in oil prices; however, the release of the FED’s December minutes quickly un-wound earlier gains.
The announcement from the Institue for Supply Management that US manufacturing expanded took the market by surprise. The manufacturing index registered 51.4 in December, up from 49.5 in November (a reading of greater than 50 indicates expansion, and a reading of less than 50 indicates contraction). The manufacturing market had contracted in November for the first time in 41 consecutive months from April 2003.
The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment rose to an eight month high of 109 in December, its highest since April 2006, driven by optimism about the outlook for jobs. The November figure was revised up to 105.3 and higher than the 102 forecast by analysts.
Crude oil price fell below $59 a barrel, due to mild weather in the US, which resulted in concern that there may be a reduction in demand. This help Southwest Airlines who have been bearing the brunt of high oil prices.
The early trading gains were un-done when the US Fed released the minutes of the Fed’s deliberation last month. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in December for the fourth straight month at 5.25%, however they expressed concern about inflation and remained open to increasing interest rates to address the problem if need be. One un-identified FED member did however suggest that the central bank should have held out the possibility of a rate cut as well. The FED suggested that the economy was in for a sluggish period of growth due to the “substantial cooling” of the housing market, however it did not indicate the the economic expansion was due to come to and end. The main concern was “the risk that inflation would fail to moderate as desired”.
European stocks continued to climb with the FTSE 100 closing at a new high of 6319 up 0.13%, the DAX up 1.3% and CAC 40 up 1.4%. HSBC rose 1.28% closing at 951.50, breaking through the key one year 947.50 pence support & resistance level. There was a real mixed bag of news coming out of the US today, which may put the FTSE under pressure in the coming days. Failure for HSBC to hold support at the 947 pence level would be considered bearish.
In the US the markets reacted well to news that US manufacturing expanded in December, plus higher than expected consumer sentiment combined with a drop in oil prices; however, the release of the FED’s December minutes quickly un-wound earlier gains.
The announcement from the Institue for Supply Management that US manufacturing expanded took the market by surprise. The manufacturing index registered 51.4 in December, up from 49.5 in November (a reading of greater than 50 indicates expansion, and a reading of less than 50 indicates contraction). The manufacturing market had contracted in November for the first time in 41 consecutive months from April 2003.
The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment rose to an eight month high of 109 in December, its highest since April 2006, driven by optimism about the outlook for jobs. The November figure was revised up to 105.3 and higher than the 102 forecast by analysts.
Crude oil price fell below $59 a barrel, due to mild weather in the US, which resulted in concern that there may be a reduction in demand. This help Southwest Airlines who have been bearing the brunt of high oil prices.
The early trading gains were un-done when the US Fed released the minutes of the Fed’s deliberation last month. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in December for the fourth straight month at 5.25%, however they expressed concern about inflation and remained open to increasing interest rates to address the problem if need be. One un-identified FED member did however suggest that the central bank should have held out the possibility of a rate cut as well. The FED suggested that the economy was in for a sluggish period of growth due to the “substantial cooling” of the housing market, however it did not indicate the the economic expansion was due to come to and end. The main concern was “the risk that inflation would fail to moderate as desired”.
Oil saves the day once again as it remains on a slippery slope
Having lived in Argentina in the run up and during the collapse of the economy in 2001 an important lesson was learnt, “always factor in macro economics when making an investment decision”. When the macro economics go against your position, you typically lose. After reflecting on this over the Christmas period, a new year’s resolution was decided upon, and that was to give more attention to macro economics, especially given all the bearish speculation that comes with indices such as the DOW forming higher highs.
It was another day of mixed news and therefore emotions on the markets; however, for the second day running, a drop in oil prices saved the day.
The day got of to a bad start when retail sector reported sales in December below expectations due to warmer weather and believe it or not, a rise in the number of people buying gift cards rather than goods for presents. The challenge that the retail sector have with Gift Cards, is that the revenue can not be recognised until the Gift Card has been redeemed. I have to hold my hand up and stand accountable for my actions; to the left of my desk there is an un-redeemed Gift Card for HMV. Sorry, however on a positive retail note, WAG posted a 7.9% increase in same-store-sales, therefore leaving us comfortable to remain long.
To add some confusion to the day, factory orders for manufactured goods rose by 0.9% in November. Hurrah you may say, but no, apparently that was not good enough and the market wanted more. The increase in demand for manufactured goods was driven primarily by military spending on new aircraft, which raises the question as to how long that will continue with the Democrats today taking control of the House of Representatives and the Senate for the first time in 12 years. The news of the increase in military spending was dampened by the fall in demand for home appliances and furniture, which brings us to the housing sector.
The US National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index for November, which is a measure of future demand for existing homes, slipped 0.5 percent to 107.0 from a revised 107.5 in October. The National Association of Realtors, took this as a positive sign, as it indicated to them that the housing market was stablising.
Just as investors were getting their heads around the market data, a report was issued stating that there was a larger than expected rise in U.S. gasoline stockpiles, which drove crude futures lower for a second straight day. U.S. crude oil for February delivery fell $2.73 to settle at $55.59 a barrel; that is a drop of $5 per barrel in the last few days. This was great news for the airline sector, or more so, LUV which we are currently long on.
As expected HSBC today give up some of yesterday’s gains as the FTSE soaked up the recent US data, however the pull back was more than expected due to a downgrade by ABN AMRO. We have decided to say long on HSBC until there is a a negative crossover on the daily interval MACD, which has been in an upward trend since the stock bounced of the 920 pence support level, as illustrated in the following charts:
In summary, house prices appear to be stablising, which should help consumer confidence and therefore keep factory orders in positive territory. Recent events in Iraq have had no visible effects on the price of oil, and inventories appear to be rising. This should lead to the expectation of reduced costs for the transport sector, which means improved earnings expectation for LUV. LUV also recently announced that it was increasing some of it fares to offset increased fuel costs, so a double whammy for them. Despite the bearish banter that we have been exposed to for the last few months, it appears to be solely based on fear of the unknown due to indices such as the DOW setting new highs. For now, we are going to continue to side with the bulls.
Having lived in Argentina in the run up and during the collapse of the economy in 2001 an important lesson was learnt, “always factor in macro economics when making an investment decision”. When the macro economics go against your position, you typically lose. After reflecting on this over the Christmas period, a new year’s resolution was decided upon, and that was to give more attention to macro economics, especially given all the bearish speculation that comes with indices such as the DOW forming higher highs.
It was another day of mixed news and therefore emotions on the markets; however, for the second day running, a drop in oil prices saved the day.
The day got of to a bad start when retail sector reported sales in December below expectations due to warmer weather and believe it or not, a rise in the number of people buying gift cards rather than goods for presents. The challenge that the retail sector have with Gift Cards, is that the revenue can not be recognised until the Gift Card has been redeemed. I have to hold my hand up and stand accountable for my actions; to the left of my desk there is an un-redeemed Gift Card for HMV. Sorry, however on a positive retail note, WAG posted a 7.9% increase in same-store-sales, therefore leaving us comfortable to remain long.
To add some confusion to the day, factory orders for manufactured goods rose by 0.9% in November. Hurrah you may say, but no, apparently that was not good enough and the market wanted more. The increase in demand for manufactured goods was driven primarily by military spending on new aircraft, which raises the question as to how long that will continue with the Democrats today taking control of the House of Representatives and the Senate for the first time in 12 years. The news of the increase in military spending was dampened by the fall in demand for home appliances and furniture, which brings us to the housing sector.
The US National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index for November, which is a measure of future demand for existing homes, slipped 0.5 percent to 107.0 from a revised 107.5 in October. The National Association of Realtors, took this as a positive sign, as it indicated to them that the housing market was stablising.
Just as investors were getting their heads around the market data, a report was issued stating that there was a larger than expected rise in U.S. gasoline stockpiles, which drove crude futures lower for a second straight day. U.S. crude oil for February delivery fell $2.73 to settle at $55.59 a barrel; that is a drop of $5 per barrel in the last few days. This was great news for the airline sector, or more so, LUV which we are currently long on.
As expected HSBC today give up some of yesterday’s gains as the FTSE soaked up the recent US data, however the pull back was more than expected due to a downgrade by ABN AMRO. We have decided to say long on HSBC until there is a a negative crossover on the daily interval MACD, which has been in an upward trend since the stock bounced of the 920 pence support level, as illustrated in the following charts:
In summary, house prices appear to be stablising, which should help consumer confidence and therefore keep factory orders in positive territory. Recent events in Iraq have had no visible effects on the price of oil, and inventories appear to be rising. This should lead to the expectation of reduced costs for the transport sector, which means improved earnings expectation for LUV. LUV also recently announced that it was increasing some of it fares to offset increased fuel costs, so a double whammy for them. Despite the bearish banter that we have been exposed to for the last few months, it appears to be solely based on fear of the unknown due to indices such as the DOW setting new highs. For now, we are going to continue to side with the bulls.
That which is not bullish, will not rise on bullish news
It is said that a market that will not rise on bullish news is not bullish, and a market that will not fall on bearish news is not bearish. So where does that leave us.
Walgreen (WAG) suffered heavily in September 06 when Wal-Mart announced that it was going to sell prescription drugs. We were sceptical when the news spooked the market, and picked up WAG when we received a timetotrade alert suggesting that the stock had found support in early December. On December 22nd Walgreen (WAG) announced that profit jumped 25% in its fiscal first quarter as the new Medicare drug benefit boosted prescription sales despite the lower margins it carries. Earlier this week, January 3rd, WAG announced that monthly same-store sales rose 7.9% helped by strong sales of prescription drugs. Logic would suggest that it would seem reasonable to assume that the recent news should have put the WMT rumour to rest. It has not done so and WAG is trading at a lower price than it did on December 22nd. This was bullish news and if sentiment on the stock had been bullish, it should have rallied. As it did not do so, it looks like it may be time to close out our position on WAG and move on to greener pastures.
Now lets us take a look at Southwest Airlines (LUV). LUV has been battling negative sentiment in the airline sector and high oil prices for some time and as a result it has been trapped in a downward trend from mid 2006. Recently LUV raised fares on routes of less than 400 miles by $2 each way, and $3 each way on routes between 400 and 750 miles. This combined with the significant drop in crude oil prices, due to speculation that demand for oil is going to fall due the mild winter being experienced in the US and Canada, seems to be having the right effect on LUV.
It is also important to note United Airlines, Northwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Continental Airlines and American Airlines each said they too had raised fares in response to Southwest’s increase. This again is great news for LUV, as typically airlines rescind fare increases if rivals do not match. LUV is now looking at higher revenue if it does not lose foot passengers as a result of the price increases. Combine this with a reduction in costs through lower oil prices and the net effect should have a positive impact on future earnings. However it still has not broken out of its downward trend and at best it could be said that it is trading sideways.
Recent LUV price movements in response to the price increase and oil news has caused the stock to rally 3% this week. If the sentiment is truly bullish on this stock then the price movement should continue to remain bullish and LUV should climb through the $16 resistance level. If the stock breaks above $16, we are going to put in a tight stop at our entry price of $15.81, just in case it decides to stay in the sideways trend that appears to be developing between a $15.30 support level, and possibly a $16 dollar resistance level. For now the news is bullish and the stock price is moving accordingly so we are going to stay bullish on LUV.
With regards to HSBC (HSBA.L), it is continuing to stay in an upward trend and is moving against the market despite the bearish broker downgrade yesterday. This afternoon we received a timetotrade alert, notifying us that HSBC had formed a positive hourly MACD crossover at 947.50 pence, which indicates that the previously mentioned 947.50 pence support level is going to hold. It is also interesting to note the spike in price that triggered the alert, suggesting that there are others that are bullish on HSBC:
Despite the bearish news on HSBC and the bearish sentiment on the FTSE, HSBC is continuing to climb, suggesting that the sentiment on this stock is bullish. We are going to continue to remain bullish on it until there is a negative crossover on the daily MACD.
It is said that a market that will not rise on bullish news is not bullish, and a market that will not fall on bearish news is not bearish. So where does that leave us.
Walgreen (WAG) suffered heavily in September 06 when Wal-Mart announced that it was going to sell prescription drugs. We were sceptical when the news spooked the market, and picked up WAG when we received a timetotrade alert suggesting that the stock had found support in early December. On December 22nd Walgreen (WAG) announced that profit jumped 25% in its fiscal first quarter as the new Medicare drug benefit boosted prescription sales despite the lower margins it carries. Earlier this week, January 3rd, WAG announced that monthly same-store sales rose 7.9% helped by strong sales of prescription drugs. Logic would suggest that it would seem reasonable to assume that the recent news should have put the WMT rumour to rest. It has not done so and WAG is trading at a lower price than it did on December 22nd. This was bullish news and if sentiment on the stock had been bullish, it should have rallied. As it did not do so, it looks like it may be time to close out our position on WAG and move on to greener pastures.
Now lets us take a look at Southwest Airlines (LUV). LUV has been battling negative sentiment in the airline sector and high oil prices for some time and as a result it has been trapped in a downward trend from mid 2006. Recently LUV raised fares on routes of less than 400 miles by $2 each way, and $3 each way on routes between 400 and 750 miles. This combined with the significant drop in crude oil prices, due to speculation that demand for oil is going to fall due the mild winter being experienced in the US and Canada, seems to be having the right effect on LUV.
It is also important to note United Airlines, Northwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Continental Airlines and American Airlines each said they too had raised fares in response to Southwest’s increase. This again is great news for LUV, as typically airlines rescind fare increases if rivals do not match. LUV is now looking at higher revenue if it does not lose foot passengers as a result of the price increases. Combine this with a reduction in costs through lower oil prices and the net effect should have a positive impact on future earnings. However it still has not broken out of its downward trend and at best it could be said that it is trading sideways.
Recent LUV price movements in response to the price increase and oil news has caused the stock to rally 3% this week. If the sentiment is truly bullish on this stock then the price movement should continue to remain bullish and LUV should climb through the $16 resistance level. If the stock breaks above $16, we are going to put in a tight stop at our entry price of $15.81, just in case it decides to stay in the sideways trend that appears to be developing between a $15.30 support level, and possibly a $16 dollar resistance level. For now the news is bullish and the stock price is moving accordingly so we are going to stay bullish on LUV.
With regards to HSBC (HSBA.L), it is continuing to stay in an upward trend and is moving against the market despite the bearish broker downgrade yesterday. This afternoon we received a timetotrade alert, notifying us that HSBC had formed a positive hourly MACD crossover at 947.50 pence, which indicates that the previously mentioned 947.50 pence support level is going to hold. It is also interesting to note the spike in price that triggered the alert, suggesting that there are others that are bullish on HSBC:
Despite the bearish news on HSBC and the bearish sentiment on the FTSE, HSBC is continuing to climb, suggesting that the sentiment on this stock is bullish. We are going to continue to remain bullish on it until there is a negative crossover on the daily MACD.
It is a mixed up world
On Wednesday (Jan 3rd) the ADP National private sector report said US private sector employers shed 40,000 jobs after adding 158,000 jobs in November. Analysts on average had been expecting gains of 128,000. The ADP does not include government and some sectors of the ecomony and sceptics would say it carries little weight, however, it definitely spooked the market when the numbers came out.
Surprise, surprise, today the US Labor Department announced that the jobs market had added 167,000 jobs to payrolls in December. That means that the US labour market is still at an historic low of 4.5% unemployment. Hurrah, bullish news for the market! No, not quite. The Labor Department also announced that wages increased 0.5% in December, which bring the tally for 2006 to an overall wage increase of 4.2%. As a result the bears are screaming inflation, which is really dampening the party for the bulls and causing a strong pull back across all the key markets. If the FED think that inflation is going to rise, then they will probably turn to interest rates to cool it. This in turn will likely cool the economy, which is further heightening concerns about a sluggish 2007 for the US. It will be interesting to see if there will be another end of day rally to save the day, or are the bears eventually going to get their way and turn the market after many months of speculation?
All the turmoil in the commodities market is really not helping things. Yesterday saw massive liquidation across the board triggered by concerns over lack of demand in the copper and oil sectors, with wheat futures getting hammered because of concerns about the weather and weak export sales. Light Crude oil for delivery in February, is still under pressure and has settled today at around the $55 mark. It is expected to fall further despite the planned OPEC reduction in production of 500,000 barrels per day as of February 1st. Definitely one to watch, and it will be great news for the transport sector if it does continue to drop. With all the liquidation in the commodities market and the sell of today in the stock markets, the big question is, where is all this money going to go?
Overall, it looks like the market is starting to react to bearishly to news that could be interpreted either way. It may be time to review long positions and accept that inevitably all rallies come to and end. What a lively start to 2007!
On Wednesday (Jan 3rd) the ADP National private sector report said US private sector employers shed 40,000 jobs after adding 158,000 jobs in November. Analysts on average had been expecting gains of 128,000. The ADP does not include government and some sectors of the ecomony and sceptics would say it carries little weight, however, it definitely spooked the market when the numbers came out.
Surprise, surprise, today the US Labor Department announced that the jobs market had added 167,000 jobs to payrolls in December. That means that the US labour market is still at an historic low of 4.5% unemployment. Hurrah, bullish news for the market! No, not quite. The Labor Department also announced that wages increased 0.5% in December, which bring the tally for 2006 to an overall wage increase of 4.2%. As a result the bears are screaming inflation, which is really dampening the party for the bulls and causing a strong pull back across all the key markets. If the FED think that inflation is going to rise, then they will probably turn to interest rates to cool it. This in turn will likely cool the economy, which is further heightening concerns about a sluggish 2007 for the US. It will be interesting to see if there will be another end of day rally to save the day, or are the bears eventually going to get their way and turn the market after many months of speculation?
All the turmoil in the commodities market is really not helping things. Yesterday saw massive liquidation across the board triggered by concerns over lack of demand in the copper and oil sectors, with wheat futures getting hammered because of concerns about the weather and weak export sales. Light Crude oil for delivery in February, is still under pressure and has settled today at around the $55 mark. It is expected to fall further despite the planned OPEC reduction in production of 500,000 barrels per day as of February 1st. Definitely one to watch, and it will be great news for the transport sector if it does continue to drop. With all the liquidation in the commodities market and the sell of today in the stock markets, the big question is, where is all this money going to go?
Overall, it looks like the market is starting to react to bearishly to news that could be interpreted either way. It may be time to review long positions and accept that inevitably all rallies come to and end. What a lively start to 2007!