Trading the NQ

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Old Mar 1, 2017, 5:50pm   #31
 
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dbphoenix started this thread The daily, beginning 12/30.
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Old Mar 1, 2017, 6:30pm   #32
 
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dbphoenix started this thread Posted 2/9 to another thread, though I didn't think we'd get here so quickly:

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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
As a trader, whether or not the system "implodes" is irrelevant to me. It imploded in 2000 and again in 2008. And it will implode again. At the moment, I'm looking toward 5400 for the NQ and have been since November, but as this has been a news-driven market for months, I'm on the watch for important changes in market sentiment. So far I see no signs of it.
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Old Mar 1, 2017, 9:18pm   #33
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
Price makes a HH to a higher UL of the TC, stopping out the short trade off the short-term DL break. The short-term DL is now fanned.
Where was the short-term DL break?
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Old Mar 1, 2017, 10:59pm   #34
 
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dbphoenix started this thread I was referring to the DL before the break, beginning with the first week of February. As of now, after being fanned, it begins at 12/30.

I don't draw many lines on my charts. I've been more interested in the steady march of higher lows since 2/2. The break of these on the 23rd and 24th was clear, and I considered this to be important given that it was at the UL of the TC. After becoming accustomed to this, one is able to see a change in character without drawing lines at all, in real time. Price then retraced two days ago, triggered the short yesterday, and the short was SO today.

I've pointed out in the book and probably somewhere in these threads that trading off very tight lines carries its own risk. However, if the trade is successful, one is able to enter much earlier than he would if he were to wait for multiple confirmations. And the risk is minimal if, as in this case, the REV takes place at an important level. And we've been working our way toward this level since early 2016, over 1500pts ago. And the downside is substantial, even if only to the median. However, after such a rise, one can't expect price to turn on a dime. We go back, again, to price risk and information risk and avoiding biases no matter what.

Those who have put in their observation time will know what the endgame is for parabolic moves. This doesn't mean that one shouldn't enter on a RET here if the opportunity presents itself. But he must have assessed the risk and, again, avoid bias.

I was interested to see somebody from Barron's post a chart just like mine, beginning with 2009. He saw the possibility of a 5% correction. However, a 10% correction would take us back to the median of this channel, and it isn't as though this hasn't happened before.
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Old Mar 6, 2017, 8:37pm   #35
 
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Interesting times again. I see another DL breach and a Ret. Whether it turns out to be so or a BO + pullback leading to another leg up is up in the air. OB conditions are not to be taken lightly. "You snooze you lose" gained its reputation around these levels.

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Old Mar 9, 2017, 7:37pm   #36
 
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Nq

NQ Weekly: Flirting with OB territory.
NQ Daily: DL breach and small TR.
NQ Hourly: Two TRs.

Price is stalling here and it's hard to tell which side the demand or supply dynamic is going to end up favouring. Considering price is at levels more suited for shorting potential after a run up I am alert to any sudden changes in activity that might indicate a time to enter. On the hourly there's a TR inside a TR indicating a state of indecision. If price ends up moving up I sit pat.

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Old Mar 15, 2017, 7:33pm   #37
 
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dbphoenix started this thread So today's activity confirms the RET off the high from the 1st and the DL can be fanned. Whether price holds here, continues its ascent, or fails to advance remains to be seen.
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Old Mar 16, 2017, 5:54am   #38
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
So today's activity confirms the RET off the high from the 1st and the DL can be fanned. Whether price holds here, continues its ascent, or fails to advance remains to be seen.
Thanks, db. I trade NQ and FT and, yesterday, as it happens, I took a long on NQ and made 10 points, recouping previous losses on FT. Got my money back on the day.

However, it's a difficult market, for me, at least.
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Old Mar 16, 2017, 12:14pm   #39
 
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dbphoenix started this thread The difficulty most likely lies in the market's being almost entirely news-driven for the past few months, and the half-life of news-driven moves is short. This makes keeping the bigger picture in mind even more important, even if one isn't trading it.
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Old Mar 21, 2017, 3:20pm   #40
 
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Demand seems to have gone on a vacation today. Perhaps this the beginning. The fact that the daily didn't continue higher and then fell back into the TR is worthy of note. The failure around the previous swing high and then demand weakening are the kind of signs that raise a flag. Daily has broken the DL and price couldn't maintain staying in the BO territory. Maybe there's some news but I don't follow news much. It's the bigger picture of price being in the OB territory that's worthy of attention.
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Old Mar 21, 2017, 3:37pm   #41
 
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dbphoenix started this thread The chief drivers of the "Trump Rally" have been the prospect of tax cuts and deregulation. If traders are disappointed in the progress toward either of these goals, there's no reason for anybody to buy, or at least buy further, particularly given that valuations are so high. Not that anyone needs to know any of this in order to trade the SLA. But it does provide context, and it does alert the trader to be on the lookout for signs of failure. We barely exited the trend channel and are now well back into it and at the moment are below the last swing low.
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Old Mar 24, 2017, 3:01pm   #42
 
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W: Price around OB

D: DL break. Price heading towards potential R of TR. The last attempt above this TR top didn't go well as the continuation failed due to demand pulling out at previous swing high dropping the price down and back into the TR. Now it's in RET mode. There are two modes to consider. Using SLA price is retracing after break of the demand line, and there's also the horizontal AMT at play at the top of TR. Usually a combination of these two and at a weekly overbought area is reason enough to limit snoozing to minimal.

H: Price heading towards the TR top.

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Old Mar 24, 2017, 6:11pm   #43
 
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D: DL break.
Actually you've had three DL breaks, the first two of which would have been stopped out. Therefore, you'll benefit by deciding which DLs are going to be important enough for you to use as trade triggers. You may have an easier time of this by eliminating all those lines except perhaps for the DLs.
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Old Mar 24, 2017, 6:53pm   #44
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Actually you've had three DL breaks, the first two of which would have been stopped out. Therefore, you'll benefit by deciding which DLs are going to be important enough for you to use as trade triggers. You may have an easier time of this by eliminating all those lines except perhaps for the DLs.
...which leads me to this situation- if one tightened up their daily DL because price has started ascending at a steeper rate, we would now have 2 DLs and a decision to make. At the break of the tighter DL, do we take the short (after RET) knowing there is the original DL is looming, do we defer to the original DL for our next move ....OR (my guess) do we assume the original DL will be resistance and only take the short if the margin is wide enough?
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Old Mar 24, 2017, 7:27pm   #45
 
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dbphoenix started this thread It is assumed that the trader draws the tighter DL because he intends to trade it. Otherwise, there's no point in drawing it. If he instead plans to wait for a break of the previous DL, then whatever questions there may be about the tighter DL aren't pertinent. The trader might also have decided that he will wait for a break of the last swing low, but doing so means taking additional price risk since price will by then be lower than it would have been at the first entry.

Clearly the SLA trader has to do a little self-examination, at the very least what do I want and what am I willing to do to get it?
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