Trading the NQ

This is a discussion on Trading the NQ within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; In 2008 prices dropped from 2200 to 1000. That's a 1200 point drop. It was around 55% drop or thereabouts. ...

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Old Nov 2, 2018, 8:55pm   #361
 
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NQ 2008 vs 2018 tick

In 2008 prices dropped from 2200 to 1000. That's a 1200 point drop. It was around 55% drop or thereabouts. Recently we had about an 1100 point drop from 7700 to about 6600. Percentage wise this is much less, around 15%. Each tick still has the same value on NQ? In other words, is it a lot easier to make money doing the same thing if one was profitable in 2008? I remember the good old days when for a few days price wouldn't move much. It hasn't been happening much of that any longer. At least that's what my experience has been. I don't trade the futures but was just wondering as it is about trading the NQ.
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Old Nov 6, 2018, 5:38pm   #362
 
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The 6900 level held yesterday as Db had pointed the important level out a few posts ago. Price showed first the ability to arrest downward movement yesterday and then showed strength today. Considering price was retracing and all, it is time to stay alert and perhaps be open to possibilities.

Last edited by Gring0; Nov 6, 2018 at 5:49pm.
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Old Nov 8, 2018, 5:22pm   #363
 
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NQ Weekly and Daily Analysis

NQ has shown quite some strength. Yesterday was a pretty strong up day and today so far the price has not been too weak. It is normal in a trend for price to gyrate and take a breather. So far it seems the movement downward today has been small compared to the gains and demand appears to be in charge. Price is also above the 50% level (~7155) from to top of the drop to the bottom. Being above this level again implies strength as it shows demand was strong enough to push beyond it. Lots of signs of strength after this whole month of weak October.

This talk is for this recent daily run up. It doesn't imply we may not already be in a recession or the drop in prices that can accompany it. What the price movements are called is irrelevant as we make money by being in sync with the market whether it's going up or going down. Speculating is a business of gauging the temperature of the demand and supply, deciding which side holds sway, having a plan to deal with the situation, and acting on that plan in a timely manner. For all this we use demand & supply, trend, ranges, price, volume, and time.

Looking at the weekly I've drawn a simple straight line that was breached when this October drop came. This upward movement in the bigger picture could just be the retracement for that larger trend. Keeping it simple usually allows the mind to remain nimble to act when conditions warrant.

So far the daily trend is up and that's what my focus is on. I would again remind that looking at the horizontal price levels is very valuable. The more experience I gain the more reliant I am becoming on the horizontal. I am also monitoring the volume but couldn't figure out how to put it on this chart. Usually I just look at the non-futures Nasdaq indexes directly for a quick glance at the volume at the end of the day.

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Last edited by Gring0; Nov 8, 2018 at 5:35pm.
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Old Nov 9, 2018, 2:11pm   #364
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gring0 View Post
So far the daily trend is up and that's what my focus is on. I would again remind that looking at the horizontal price levels is very valuable. The more experience I gain the more reliant I am becoming on the horizontal. I am also monitoring the volume but couldn't figure out how to put it on this chart. Usually I just look at the non-futures Nasdaq indexes directly for a quick glance at the volume at the end of the day.

Gringo
Even though I draw my trendlines and support and demand lines differently than you do, none of that is particularly relevant to the current trend, which, as you point out, is up. As for "looking left" to the horizontal, yes, as this is where one finds those levels at which "the money" reversed price in the past and may do so again, in this case, 6580 on the 29th. At this point, the trader relies on his protocols to tell him whether or not to exit his short and, if so, when. But assuming he's exited by the 2nd, he's then faced with a downmove and the necessity of deciding what to do about it. Is it a retracement or the beginning of a reversal? Most beginners assume it's a reversal and panic. The SLA trader, however, understands that after a move of 150pts one can expect a little profit-taking. So he leaves it up to the market to tell him what to do. He anticipates buying if price exits from the top of this bar and re-entering his short if it exits from the bottom (it's a "dog"). Here it exits from the top, on the 6th, which makes a retracement more likely than a reversal. There's no reason to exit in the meantime, and the retracement is confirmed on the 7th when price exceeds the 2nd's swing high. No need for anxiety or hand-wringing or any sort of "emotional" response. It's just a matter of understanding price movement.

At this point, price is hung in the middle of the hinge formed between the 11th and the 17th as well as the middle of the downmove from the 1st to the 29th. Until The Money decides what it wants to do, all one can do is make sure his stops are properly placed and wait.

Db
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Old Nov 9, 2018, 4:16pm   #365
 
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As they say in Richville: A stop is a traders best friend.
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Old Nov 10, 2018, 1:42am   #366
 
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That was quite a reversal. Though looking to the left it does make sense. 7200 had some suppliers that had shown up in the past. So now the 50% got whacked. The DL for the upside move on the daily is breached. So are we going to get a retracement again? That would mean there's potential for more downside. We're also as Db mentioned stuck between certain important levels and this might turn into a ranging area. Many possibilities.
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Old Yesterday, 8:58pm   #367
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NQ -Daily 11.13.18 My first contribution.....

My first real chart example....please chime in and point out anything I should or should not be noticing.

The newest UP move did not hold, and the reversal pushed through through the 50% mark very forcefully. This suggests weakness at this time.

Price has been arrested just above 6800, as it has a few times in the past. This is an important area of S/R to watch, and a break of this line will likely not find support until the last swing low area at 6600.

If it bounces upward, it is entering into a new, larger hinge that is forming. This could cause an explosive move upwards if price pierces the hinge's upper line.

If it remains in the hinge area until the end of the apex, then we are likely in a range area where equilibrium is being searched out.
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Old Today, 2:41am   #368
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lindsaybev View Post
My first real chart example....please chime in and point out anything I should or should not be noticing.

The newest UP move did not hold, and the reversal pushed through through the 50% mark very forcefully. This suggests weakness at this time.

Price has been arrested just above 6800, as it has a few times in the past. This is an important area of S/R to watch, and a break of this line will likely not find support until the last swing low area at 6600.

If it bounces upward, it is entering into a new, larger hinge that is forming. This could cause an explosive move upwards if price pierces the hinge's upper line.

If it remains in the hinge area until the end of the apex, then we are likely in a range area where equilibrium is being searched out.
I would suggest you open your own thread so it is more tailored toward your needs. We most likely would try to add our bit if we can. It would also be a log of how much improvement you've made instead of trying to find relevant posts that pertain to your questions.

As per this chart and the lines, to me it appears you're not so crystal clear about when to draw new DL/SL lines and what constitutes a hinge (deducing from the hinge drawn in image). So this is going to take the thread on a tangent in my opinion.

Hope to get a link when you start a thread with clear goals as to what you're trying to achieve and how you're going to go about achieving it.

Gringo
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Old Today, 4:28am   #369
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That bad? LOL

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Originally Posted by Gring0 View Post
I would suggest you open your own thread so it is more tailored toward your needs. We most likely would try to add our bit if we can. It would also be a log of how much improvement you've made instead of trying to find relevant posts that pertain to your questions.

As per this chart and the lines, to me it appears you're not so crystal clear about when to draw new DL/SL lines and what constitutes a hinge (deducing from the hinge drawn in image). So this is going to take the thread on a tangent in my opinion.

Hope to get a link when you start a thread with clear goals as to what you're trying to achieve and how you're going to go about achieving it.

Gringo
That bad, eh? LOL.

I knew that last SL was not correct, as price had not traveled past that last swing low. That I chose to post the pic anyway teaches me something about myself at any rate.

I have read DB suggest that others start their own thread and keep a log. So I will go ahead and do this. Thank you for reminding me. I just get a feeling no one will go on. But I know that it is important for me, regardless.

Right now my main goal is to learn the SLAB. DB had said I could contact him here if I had questions. But I suppose if I knowingly post a chart with an incorrect SL, then I am just wasting people's time. I apologize for this.

But until DB tells me to NOT post, then I will still continue to come on and ask questions. I, too, would like to be as good as you are Gringo, and I have to start somewhere. I am nothing if not tenacious.

Last edited by Lindsaybev; Today at 4:32am. Reason: added an addition
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