To predict or not to predict

This is a discussion on To predict or not to predict within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by piphoe the simple act of placing a trade ....bought here means i predict price will go higher. ...

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Old Feb 3, 2016, 8:51pm   #16
 
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Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
the simple act of placing a trade ....bought here means i predict price will go higher. I sold here ..i predict price goes lower.

yes, trading = prediction
More accurately, the results of the trader's tests provide him with the probability that price will go higher if he enters according to the criteria determined by his testing. Whether or not price will actually go higher in any given trade is unknowable. Ditto exiting and shorting.

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Old Feb 3, 2016, 8:59pm   #17
 
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
More accurately, the results of the trader's tests provide him with the probability that price will go higher if he enters according to the criteria determined by his testing. Whether or not price will actually go higher in any given trade is unknowable. Ditto exiting and shorting.

Db

yes, that's the "edge".

that edge is really not an edge at all, but a range. edge connotes precision, there is no precision just fuzzy range thats constantly changing & evolving with price.
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Old Feb 3, 2016, 9:03pm   #18
 
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Actually, it's no out of the box software. My friend programmed in R and used some standard libraries and put his own knowledge on top.
That is pretty cool. Is there any reason why you choose the programming language R? I recently paid a friend to make a front end application for me. Are you automating the historical data download and is it in real time? You said that it looks at the OHLC only. Is the programming running once and giving you predictions for the next day?
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Old Feb 3, 2016, 9:05pm   #19
 
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yes, that's the "edge".

that edge is really not an edge at all, but a range. edge connotes precision, there is no precision just fuzzy range thats constantly changing & evolving with price.
If it makes consistent money, it's an edge.

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Old Feb 3, 2016, 9:15pm   #20
 
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
If it makes consistent money, it's an edge.

Db
yes. i think i have a "edge", why else place a trade?

however, my edge is fuzzy and not based on precise rules such as i'm getting out to the pip!

the markets don't work that way.
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Old Feb 3, 2016, 9:27pm   #21
 
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yes. i think i have a "edge", why else place a trade?

however, my edge is fuzzy and not based on precise rules such as i'm getting out to the pip!

the markets don't work that way.
People have all sort of reasons to place trades. Some make consistent money and some don't. If however one wants to make a living at this, best to cobble together a plan that makes enough money to enable that objective.

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Old Feb 3, 2016, 10:16pm   #22
 
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
People have all sort of reasons to place trades. Some make consistent money and some don't. If however one wants to make a living at this, best to cobble together a plan that makes enough money to enable that objective.

Db
Cobbling together a plan is doomed to failure. "Cobbling a plan", really??

Real edges are hard to come by, and would command real money.

Days are over making money off a straight line, or Wycoff
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Old Feb 3, 2016, 10:52pm   #23
 
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Cobbling together a plan is doomed to failure. "Cobbling a plan", really??

Real edges are hard to come by, and would command real money.

Days are over making money off a straight line, or Wycoff
Cobbling, putting together, assembling, developing, creating, formulating . . .

Edges are not difficult to come by if one is willing and able to do the work. But few are willing.

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Old Feb 3, 2016, 11:32pm   #24
 
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Cobbling together a plan is doomed to failure. "Cobbling a plan", really??

Real edges are hard to come by, and would command real money.

Days are over making money off a straight line, or Wycoff
So true. I have been waiting a long time for someone else to say this. Real edges are indeed hard to come by. The majority of trading journals here just post annotated graphs without any explanations. There are no visible trades that I can see there. These trading journals have become more show and tell and picture galleries more than anything else.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 2:04pm   #25
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Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
Real edges are hard to come by, and would command real money.

Days are over making money off a straight line, or Wycoff
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Originally Posted by hhiusa View Post
So true. I have been waiting a long time for someone else to say this. Real edges are indeed hard to come by.
Real edges are laying around like Klondike gold in the days before the rush. Unlike gold, however, most folks just don't know what an edge looks like. And even when one does, he often either lacks the discipline, or, more likely, is so consumed by fear that he just can't bring themselves to assume the risk necessary to profit from the edge's long term expectancy.

Evidence that you are a fear based trader doomed to fail would be the use of stops placed just a tick beyond a most recent swing high or swing low, or submitting to the mania to go to a breakeven (or worse, the "break even +1 tick") stop before price has retraced at least once back to the entry or broken through a substantial support or resistance level.

Edges are common. The ability to profit from one is uncommon. The ability to both recognize and to trade one is quite rare.

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Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
the simple act of placing a trade ....bought here means i predict price will go higher. I sold here ..i predict price goes lower.

yes, trading = prediction
In a former life I traded for a prop firm in New York. The owner of the firm, a well-known former heavy weight floor trader from the NYSE, used to say "If you think you can predict what price is going to do next, I take that as that is prima facie evidence that you have no idea how to play this game to win and I'll cut you off from my money right now!"
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