My journey to long term consistency

This is a discussion on My journey to long term consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Quite a fall on the Nasdaq-100. Probably shouldn't touch this even if my setup triggers. This is not your average ...

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Old Nov 29, 2017, 4:27pm   #601
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Quite a fall on the Nasdaq-100. Probably shouldn't touch this even if my setup triggers. This is not your average down move. Haven't seen this since I started testing.. then again, the other markets seem fine.
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Old Nov 30, 2017, 4:33pm   #602
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L: -7.85 points (-19.75 €)
Amount: 3 contracts

Opening Rate 6413.78
Close Rate 6421.63

Open time 27/11/2017 16:00:54
Close Time 27/11/2017 16:11:30

Stop loss: fixed stop above highest high

Entry and exit on a 1m chart
screenshot-2017-11-27-17-17-37.jpg


Reason of closure: SL got hit

Comments
Yeah... so what I already mentioned in my psychologic post is very clear on the chart here. My system is not to be seen. I mean, technically price did go higher and then lower again but it's all in the same one minute bar. I normally never take trades like that.

I clearly got impatient and greedy. Error trade sadly enough But that's why we start trading small with real money, so we can still learn.
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Old Nov 30, 2017, 4:42pm   #603
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L: -8.98 points (-22.70 €)
Amount: 3 contracts

Opening Rate 6417.98
Close Rate 6409.00

Open time 28/11/2017 16:02:15
Close Time 27/11/2017 16:58:04

Stop loss: fixed stop below lowest low

No chart available.


Reason of closure: SL got hit

Comments
No chart but I remember the setup was messy. Price first went up alot, but then it dropped almost the same amount in a short time frame. That's not how price behaves on any of my clean setups. Same issue as previous trade really, I took the trade because I was greedy and impatient.


Today there won't be a trade either, last week no trade, maybe tomorrow but who knows. This is possible. Some weeks there's a trade every day, sometimes there's no trade.. 10 days is exceptional but can happen of course. Just be patient and only take clean trades. Opportunities will come, I know this from experience.
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Old Dec 6, 2017, 3:08pm   #604
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Another losing trade. This time it was a trade I would have taken during my testing period (at least I think so, to be confirmed). The setup could be cleaner but it wasn't really messy like the last two either.

To me the market is behaving really strange lately and maybe we have entered some sort of bear market or there's a market correction right now (and from februari till october, during the testing of my system, there have been none of those (let's assume this for now, I'm just thinking out loud) . If this holds up then these losses would be normal.

Then again, the first two losses were error trades clearly and this could be a legitimate loser so maybe nothing is up at all.

Then again, market is behaving strangely in that when market opens the moves are not just big but humongous . Fifty point moves were about the biggest moves I had seen during my testing while now day after day the moves easily beat this. This points to a different market phase we are in. (to be confirmed)

The again, if I look at the daily charts and I look at the time period from februari till now I see that from beginning of June till beginning of July price had a similar decline which I see happening now. Of course a lot of detail is lost looking at the daily charts so it might be that although price did decline, market still behaved in a -for my system- normal manner and something different is happening now. (again, to be confirmed, I should look at my test trades during this period)

So this is what I have to do now. Let's investigate what (if anything) is up.

I'm going to cease all trading until I have investigated this.
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Old Dec 7, 2017, 11:37am   #605
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DrSafari started this thread I have done my investigations and come to a conclusion, but first let's post this other losing trade.

Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L: -14.75 points (-37,4 €)
Amount: 3 contracts

Opening Rate 6332,38
Close Rate 6317,63


Open time 12/4/2017 16:24:40
Close Time 12/4/2017 16:34:08


Stop loss: fixed stop below lowest low

5 min chart
04-12-2017_5min.jpg

1 min chart
04-12-2017_1min.jpg


Reason of closure: manually closed because trade was going nowhere and didn't want to wait for my SL to trigger and lose even more.

Comments
After investigations it appears I have taken 3 similar trades like this during my testing of which 2 were winners and 1 was a loser. Both the loser and the 1 winner was with a big move (65+ points). I wouldn't say it's an error trade therefor but it isn't the cleanest setup ever either if you look at the 5 min chart (which my system says to do with moves this big).


I'll post detailed conclusions about my analysis decribed in previous post later.

Last edited by DrSafari; Dec 7, 2017 at 2:01pm.
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Old Dec 11, 2017, 9:46am   #606
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DrSafari started this thread Right, here is the analysis:

Things to check for in my logged trades:
1- check if last trade is conform trades I took during testing (apart from humongous move)
2- check what the biggest moves were during test phase
3- look at test trades from begin of June till begin of July and see if you find anything odd

Conclusions
1) MAR 22, 2017, 4:47PM --> similar to last trade and also loser
1)JUN 1, 2017, 7:06AM --> similar to last trade but winner
1) SEP 27, 2017, 7:15PM --> similar to last trade but winner

2) big move (80) but loser MAR 22, 2017, 4:47PM (not under current system unless taken a trade like last trade
2) big move (65) and winner JUN 1, 2017, 7:06AM

3) Also big moves (but not quite as big as now) but recovered better of the instances I recorded. Didn't take that many trades that month. (Due to taking cleaner trades?)

So, last trade as mentioned in earlier post for point #1 I can't really say it's a bad trade but it didn't have the cleanest setup either.

#2: There were big moves during test phase but they weren't nearly as big or as frequent as the latest week and a half.

#3: There were a few big moves but again not as big as the last week and a half and they seemed to recover better (at least the instances I recorded when I took a position)

The overal conclusion is that this is an anomaly situation. At least for my system. This probably occurs once every year on average in the market? That's just a wild guess but "easy" to check out. To take this into account in the future I will adapt my system that I am not to trade if a move is bigger than 65 points.

This situation is similar to the first time I started trading for real money. Back then my testing phase was much shorter (like 2-3 months) and I didn't have a real system. I just took trades that seemed to make sense. I went from 20k virtual money to 60kish virtual money. Pretty good. However, after looking at that 2-3 month testing phase it was very clear to see that the market was going up very steadily (and I only went long during my testing). And of course right when I started with real money the market started going down for a while which resulted in me losing money of course

Same thing happened now. I take my system live and conditions change. I lost a lot less money now and I am still testing now, that's the difference. That's why you start trading with small amounts. Also, back then my testing phase was the anomaly while now this period is the anomaly.

Next post will be one of my system updated with the 65point +move rule.
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Old Dec 14, 2017, 2:37pm   #607
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DrSafari started this thread Trading System as of 14-12-2017 (updated from 04-04-2017)

1) Define S&R levels up front monthly, weekly and daily (*)
2) Look for big moves 8 points or more (over the course of maximum 4 hours) (**)
3) Watch where it reverses after a lower low (higher high) and wait for price to retrace.
4) If price reverses once again, take a position once the high (or low) previous to the retrace has been breached. (***)
5) put stop loss at 0.25 above or below highest high or lowest low
6) when nearing resistance (1p distance) or 3R profit put in a tight (tightest possible) trailing SL. (****)

7) avoid trading during US market open for now (15:30 - 16:00). Must a trade drag on long and would still be open during US market open, put tight trailing SL. Or close in case left over profit would be 0 or less.



(*) If after the upfront defining I spot another level I can draw it and treat is as a daily level.
If there are two previous daily levels in the past week which are the same, draw that on the chart too.

(**) If the move is bigger than 65 points do not take any trades

(***) For moves between 8 and 25 points look at the 1m chart to determine retracements. If the move > 25 look at the 5 min chart.

(****) The only exception is if you enter a trade close to an S&R level, don't put a tight trailing SL immediately (because we expect the trade to not stop at that level obviously)
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Old Dec 14, 2017, 3:05pm   #608
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L: -5.85 points (-14.95 €)
Amount: 3 contracts

Opening Rate 6408.48
Close Rate 6402.63


Open time 12/12/2017 15:59:50
Close Time 12/12/2017 16:30:10


Stop loss: fixed stop below lowest low


1 min chart
12-12-2017_1min_edited.jpg


Reason of closure: manually closed because trade was going nowhere and didn't want to wait for my SL to trigger and lose even more. Except that I would have won instead of lost. Explanation below.

Comments
So the entry of the trade is fine. But I closed the trade because it was going nowhere. But there is no description of that in my system anywhere. I do remember that even during the testing phase I closed the position prematurely (to be confirmed) which mostly led to ... I don't really know, that's what I need to confirm really. Is it better to leave it running or is it better to close if the trade seems to be going nowhere?

That's my next job, to figure that out. Then I should put it in my system and stick with the damn system.


I remember thinking about this issue before but I never bothered to check it out because I was doing good. And when it's going good your emotions are better in check (apart from greed but atleast there's less fear) and you're likely to make better decisions if they are not 100% defined in the system. However when your confidence has taken a punch (like now) it's extremely useful to have a well defined system.

Funny business this trading, every time you think you've progressed well and so you take it a level higher, you get another set-back. From experience I know this is a normal part of life. The key is to keep going and not let negative emotions get the better of you.

Right... I've got some work to do.
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