My journey to long term consistency

This is a discussion on My journey to long term consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Short NASDAQ-100 Net P/L -4.11 points Amount 1 Contracts Opening Rate 5032.69 Close Rate 5036.8 Open Time 1/10/2017 5:07 PM ...

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Old Jan 11, 2017, 4:34pm   #377
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L -4.11 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 5032.69
Close Rate 5036.8

Open Time 1/10/2017 5:07 PM
Close Time 1/10/2017 5:10 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop above the highest high

Entry and exit on a 5m chart
nasdaq_10012017_result.jpg


Reason of closure: fixed Stop loss hit

Comments
Trade according to the system but a loser. Should have waited longer to go in because while it did go down it was not really convincing. I did act according to the system and it did go down by more than 1.5 point so that is why I went in. All of this is not very clear on this 5m chart(1m chart was not available anymore at time of posting) How can I prevent a scenario like this? Easy make the criteria for entering more than 1.5 point, in that case I should also look for bigger moves than at least 8 points.* However, I am not making the same mistake of continuously changing my system again and running around in circles. I will only change it when I see a clear pattern in the results. So for now, steady as she goes.

(*) OORRRR as I mentioned so often already make it relative to the move, probably makes more sense. But requires more concentration watching the chart
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 4:57pm   #378
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Preparation 11-01-2017
nasdaq_11012017_daily_preparation.jpg
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 5:10pm   #379
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L + 3.37 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 5041.06
Close Rate 5037.69

Open Time 1/11/2017 4:45 PM
Close Time 1/11/2017 4:54 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop above the highest high

Entry and exit on a 1m chart
nasdaq_11012017_result.jpg


Reason of closure: moved stop loss to tightest trailing SL possible near the 5035 level and that got hit.

Comments
Was watching the chart and suddenly there was a big drop left to the green arrow. System is triggered but I found it a bit too late to enter that trade cause the 5035 level was so closeby so I decided to wait for a retracement, which happened a few minutes later. After the retracement seemed to have stopped I entered short. Still a trade according to the system. It does not mention retracements but it does not forbid it either. Eventual price was near the 5035 level so I put in a trailing SL instead of a fixed stop loss which got hit a few minutes later.

Cons of putting the trailing SL and not exiting right away are that I lose about 2 points of profit.
Pros are that if price happens to blast through the 5035 level I can potentially make an enormous profit. If I can trade like this AND once in a forthnight benefit from really big profits I have myself a good strategy I reckon.

But once again I can clearly see S&R levels is a great tool, price bounced off of it again, it does so again and again and again and again.
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 3:30pm   #380
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L -6.65 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 4999.06
Close Rate 4992.41

Open Time 1/12/2017 4:56 PM
Close Time 1/12/2017 5:00 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop below the lowest low

Entry and exit on a 1m chart
nasdaq_12012017_result.jpg


Reason of closure: fixed stop loss got hit

Comments
I forgot to post the preparation but I added the levels on the result chart. Huuuge move downwards, then seemed to have stabilized so I put the stop loss a bit below the lowest low. Price was moving down a bit and normally I have to wait for it to go up to enter but I had to leave work so it was either taking the trade now or not taking it at all. As I was putting my stop loss I thought to myself, this SL is too tight for such a big move. Price did not go below previous low but there is no guarantee that price won't go under it for a few points as a retracement. And, it did exactly that. These situations are the potential big gain situations I talked about previous posts... of course you have to actually win them and not lose then. Had I waited or put a less tight (relative to the move SL) this would have been a big profit.

It was sensible that price would recover to original level and with my current stop loss I had then a risk:reward ratio of 1/3.... In this system I usually barely have 1/2 so why now go for 1/3 ? Could have taken more risk 1/2 and turned this into an actual winner.

Nevertheless, I did good because I followed the system. Seems like more and more things are pointing in the direction of putting a relative SL to the move. Yet, not just changing the system yet, let's get some more data in so I can properly determine what would be a good ratio.
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 3:36pm   #381
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Preparation 13-01-2017
nasdaq_13012017_daily_preparation.jpg
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 5:09pm   #382
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L -6.67 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 5053.04
Close Rate 5059.71

Open Time 1/13/2017 3:56 PM
Close Time 1/13/2017 4:51 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop above the highest high

Entry and exit on a 1m chart
nasdaq_13012017_result.jpg


Reason of closure: fixed stop loss got hit

Comments
Rather late entry but still plenty of opportunity. I did hesitate for a bit because I thought there may have formed a new support level around the orange line but then I thought price staying 5 minutes at the same level does not mean its support yet. Alas I was right and it was. If I had established that as support I could have narrowed my SL near the second full orange line and instead of a big loser had a small +2 point winner. But now there was no reason to tighten cause 5044 was still far off. Legitimate loser, price is continuously moving and so are S&R levels, if you happen to be in a trade while one is forming (or rather exposing itself) you need to make a descision whether to act on it or ignore it. I chose the latter but turned out bad.
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 5:56pm   #383
Joined Nov 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrSafari View Post
Short NASDAQ-100

Net P/L -6.67 points

Amount 1 Contracts

Opening Rate 5053.04
Close Rate 5059.71

Open Time 1/13/2017 3:56 PM
Close Time 1/13/2017 4:51 PM

Stop loss: fixed stop above the highest high

Entry and exit on a 1m chart
Attachment 233262


Reason of closure: fixed stop loss got hit

Comments
Rather late entry but still plenty of opportunity. I did hesitate for a bit because I thought there may have formed a new support level around the orange line but then I thought price staying 5 minutes at the same level does not mean its support yet. Alas I was right and it was. If I had established that as support I could have narrowed my SL near the second full orange line and instead of a big loser had a small +2 point winner. But now there was no reason to tighten cause 5044 was still far off. Legitimate loser, price is continuously moving and so are S&R levels, if you happen to be in a trade while one is forming (or rather exposing itself) you need to make a descision whether to act on it or ignore it. I chose the latter but turned out bad.
Mine turned out disappointing, too. Shorted at 5058 and, after more than an hour, lost patience and called it a day for a loss of 5 points. Wish you luck from this point!
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Old Jan 16, 2017, 4:48pm   #384
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
Mine turned out disappointing, too. Shorted at 5058 and, after more than an hour, lost patience and called it a day for a loss of 5 points. Wish you luck from this point!
Well, I am hoping to not need any luck in the future But I appreciate the gesture
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