My journey to long term consistency

This is a discussion on My journey to long term consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Demo account Agco got stopped out at a ~60€ loss. Both trades combined making a small 20 € profit. Reason ...

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Old Oct 5, 2015, 3:38pm   #31
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Demo account
Agco got stopped out at a ~60€ loss. Both trades combined making a small 20 € profit. Reason I re-entered as mentioned before is because I took profits too soon according to the trading system. So would have made slightly more if I had let it run (and trailing stop loss like I do) because of paying the spread only once instead of twice.

Agco First Entry
Short Agco
Amount: 100 shares

Opening rate: 44.73
Opening time: 10/1/2015 3:31:36 PM
Stop loss: did not record
Amount risked: I think it was around €180

Close rate: 43.84
Close time:10/1/2015 5:11:34 PM
Virtual Net P/L: € +79.47


Agco Second Entry
Short Agco
Amount: 100 shares

Opening rate: 43.90
Opening time: 10/1/2015 5:26:23 PM
Stop loss: did not record
Amount risked: I think it was around €180 again initially

Close rate: 44.61
Close time:10/5/2015 3:30:34 PM
Virtual Net P/L:€ -61.74


Activision (long) which nearly hit the stop loss because of the bad Nonfarm Payrolls results is rallying again so it's good that it didn't hit its stop loss. I placed 3 more orders according to the system who may or may not get executed. I do wonder how long the order is still "valid". That's not really explained anywhere. I guess I'll have to use my common sense for that. I guess if the long term trend is changing it's no longer suitable and if not it would probably get a fill anytime soon anyway.

Tonight I'll have some candidates for my other system with real money.

Last edited by DrSafari; Oct 5, 2015 at 3:44pm.
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Old Oct 6, 2015, 4:26pm   #32
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Real Account

I had 4 suitable trades coming out of my real account system. But I got into them too soon again. Why too soon ? I had noticed afterwards that today it's the ECB President Draghi's Speech. From experience I know this can have a big impact on european stocks. And I was currently holding 4 european long positions. Luckily all 4 were already making profits. I quickly took profits on 2 of them (Ko and Me). Wanted to get rid of a third one too but couldn't get a fill so I just put a higher stop loss to reduce risk, that one got stopped out now (Rh). And I'm still holding 1 of them with a small profit and minimal risk so I'm holding on to that one.

But again, need to learn to be a bit less eager if I see suitable candidates and a nice clean chart the way I like it. Hard to get rid of this habit

I will re-enter all 3 positions if their trend seems to continue after the ECB's president speech.

I probably won't post charts all the time as it's quite a hassle. They're usually not that useful either, if I don't include a daily or hourly long term chart and a 15 or 30 min short term chart. If I only post the long term chart you see the general trend clearly but not the entry point. If I post the short term chart you don't see the long term trend perspective. So I will post less charts but when I do I will include a long term and a short term one.

Closed positions:
------------------


Long Ko
Amount: 100 shares

Opening rate: 36.54
Opening time: 10/6/2015 10:46:09 AM
Stop loss: again, no time to have it recorded
Amount risked: too much, broke 2% rule slightly

Close rate: 37.29
Close time:10/6/2015 4:19:55 PM
Net P/L: € +75.00


Long Me
Amount: 250 shares

Opening rate: 20.55
Opening time: 10/6/2015 10:14:34 AM
Stop loss: again, no time to have it recorded
Amount risked: around 2%, I think it was €88

Close rate: 20.80
Close time:10/6/2015 4:20:01 PM
Net P/L: € +62.50



Long Rh
Amount: 250 shares

Opening rate: 19.68
Opening time: 10/6/2015 9:20:12 AM
Stop loss: again, no time to have it recorded
Amount risked: too much, broke 2% rule slightly as well

Close rate: 19.59
Close time:10/6/2015 4:34:59 PM
Net P/L: € -22.50

Current equity: € 4,683.38



Demo account
Today's stochastics monitoring was fruitful as it produced 3 more trading candidates, placed orders for all 3, making 6 outstanding orders in total. Will they get a fill or not? That's part of the system so no more action to take on that. My open Activision trade (long) was making a nice profit. More than the amount that I set as my stop loss so I put my stop above the break even point. Because that is my rule to add to my position I added another equally large position on Activision. Same stop loss as the other trade.

Last edited by DrSafari; Oct 6, 2015 at 4:32pm.
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Old Oct 9, 2015, 8:11am   #33
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Real Account
I opened 3 other long positions of which 2 got stopped out already 2 days ago. The Ca trade was legitimate but was just a losing trade. However, I entered Me again also. It was a mistake. I was trying to look for a good entry point but it kind of screwed me over. It was rallying up so I thought let's have some patience and enter when it goes down a bit. Except it didn't go down. It kept going up. And each time it went higher and higher I resisted the temptation to enter the trade. I kept my descipline until the 4th time I had the urge to enter it and then I actually entered the trade. Of course it was on the high point, figures lol, but serves me right. It really is your emotions what makes the difference in the market. Either I should have entered it immediately or not at all.

Also the minimum amount to buy was rather a lot so my stop loss was probably a bit too tight for the volatility but didn't want to risk too much either. Everything about that trade screams extremely bad trade and the worst thing is that I knew it. I told myself that I shouldn't entere because it's a bad trade a couple of times and then I did it anyway. Well I can only learn from it. I should be happy to learn these lessons now that i'm trading with a small amount rather than my full capital.

Anyway the result of that bad trade was € -87,50 rendering me break even if I count my winning trades and the uninevitable (but not necessarily bad) losing trades of this month.

The one other trade I reopened (Ko) is still in the running making a modest profit. One other position out of my 4 earlier mentioned candidates is Kon that one is still in the running from the beginning. I didn't talk about that one yet but it's also making a modest profit.

On to the technicals I guess. I will post charts of the Ca trade and maybe the very bad Me trade just for fun

As I'm in the process of posting the technicals the market has opened and both my positions are making more profit.

Positions still open:
Long Ko
Amount: 100 shares

Opening rate: 37,11
Opening time: 7/10/2015 9:10:03 AM
Stop loss: 37,14 (re-adjusted twice already)
Amount risked: initially around €80

Current rate: 37.98
Current Net P/L: € +88,88


Long Kon
Amount: 50 shares

Opening rate: 23,78
Opening time: 6/10/2015 10:36:43 AM
Stop loss: 24,18 (re-adjusted twice as well)
Amount risked: initially around €30

Current rate: 24,76
Current Net P/L: € +47,98



Positions closed
Reason = stop loss got hit
Long Me (the bad trade)
Amount: 250 shares

Opening rate: 21,71
Opening time:7/10/2015 11:49:28 AM
Stop loss: near the closing rate of course
Amount risked: near € 87,50

Close rate: 21,36
Close time:7/10/2015 5:07:11 PM
Net P/L: € -87,50

Short term 15 minute chart, green line is where i entered, red is where I exited:
me_long.jpg

Long term hourly chart:
As you can see, my trade idea was correct but I put a too narrow stop loss because I took too large of a position (couldn't go smaller). If deciding to enter the trade anyway I should have entered where i now exited, afterwards it went back up nicely. I could have made nice profits with this one, but alas
me_long_hourly.jpg


Long Ca
Reason closure = stop loss got hit
Amount: 100 shares

Opening rate: 28,04
Opening time: 7/10/2015 10:01:53 AM
Stop loss: near the closing rate of course
Amount risked: near € 41,80

Close rate: 27,63
Close time: 8/10/2015 11:02:37 AM
Net P/L: € -41,80

Last edited by DrSafari; Oct 9, 2015 at 12:39pm.
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Old Oct 12, 2015, 12:09pm   #34
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Real Account
My two open positions are now closed as well. One hit the stop loss and the other one I closed myself on friday as my soft target was reached and didn't want to hold it over the weekend.

Long Ko
Amount: 100 shares
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit

Opening rate: 37,11
Opening time: 7/10/2015 9:10:03 AM
Stop loss: 37,56 (trailing)
Amount risked: initially around €80

Close rate: 37.56
Close time: 9/10/2015 11:46:21 AM
Net P/L: € +42,88


Long Kon
Amount: 50 shares
Reason of closure: profit target reached and didn't want to hold over weekend

Opening rate: 23,78
Opening time: 6/10/2015 10:36:43 AM
Stop loss: trailing
Amount risked: initially around €30

Close rate: 25,00
Close time: 9/10/2015 2:50:17 PM
Net P/L: € +59,98

Currently not holding any positions anymore.
Current equity: € 4.650,95
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Old Oct 12, 2015, 12:48pm   #35
Joined Jan 2006
Nice to see that you continue updating here, and that you are keeping good records. I believe this shifts the odds of becoming a successful trader in your favor.

Keep up the good work!
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Old Oct 13, 2015, 4:23pm   #36
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by options-george View Post
Nice to see that you continue updating here, and that you are keeping good records. I believe this shifts the odds of becoming a successful trader in your favor.

Keep up the good work!
I believe so too, thanks
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Old Oct 15, 2015, 2:43pm   #37
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Demo account
Consistently losing money with my new trading system. I am executing very mechanically and not looking at anything else than the indicators. I'm not going to dismiss it entirely but I'm going to look for cleaner charts when I'm choosing trading candidates, a bit of a hybrid between my real account system and the one I'm testing. I'll probably start with it next week.

I also tested Mr Charts day trading rising/falling candles system two times. Once it worked really well and the other time it didn't. However doing this I learned something really important. The spread of my broker is WAY to high to use this kind of technique. If I ever want to use this system for real I have to use a different broker. I guess to test it properly this counts as well. I have a gut feeling the system could work well and it suits my style too. The fact that you never hold anything overnight also appeals to me. And, there is a common theme with the system I'm currently using for real money.

As I'm writing this I'm in the process of the administration of registering with a different broker. I guess I'll have to withdraw my equity from plus500 and wire it to my future account. The only problem with that is that my loss of around €4400 becomes real then and that it stings to walk away from them with a loss letting them have made easy money from me. Then again, I'm sure that I will make it back sooner or later and I realise this is only my ego speaking so logically there is no reason not to do it. Emotions are the enemy so once everything is set up and I've gotten used to the new platform I surely will transfer my funds.

Real account

Short Mel
Amount: 1000 shares
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit, stop loss levels were at +€5 at the time but due to slippage I ended up in the negatives a bit.

Opening rate: 267,96
Opening time:13/10/2015 10:39:34 AM
Stop loss: near close rate after adapting
Amount risked: initially around €30

Close rate: 268,19
Close time: 15/10/2015 9:09:04 AM
Net P/L: € -2,38

Not a bad trade in my opinion but i highered my stop loss after it was making nice profits of around €30 to reduce risks. Not much after market opened today the stock gapped and went beyond the stop loss which caused me to lose a small amount of money.
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Old Oct 19, 2015, 12:43am   #38
Joined Jul 2015
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrSafari View Post

I also tested Mr Charts day trading rising/falling candles system two times. Once it worked really well and the other time it didn't. However doing this I learned something really important. The spread of my broker is WAY to high to use this kind of technique. If I ever want to use this system for real I have to use a different broker. I guess to test it properly this counts as well. I have a gut feeling the system could work well and it suits my style too. The fact that you never hold anything overnight also appeals to me. And, there is a common theme with the system I'm currently using for real money.
I look forward to any further comment you have on this system as I am actually taking a bit of a hiatus from my trading/system development to test this out myself. For me though, I am going to spend some time automating it since manual trading this way will not be practical for me. I have come to the realization that an automatic system is probably the best way forward for me and this system in particular lends itself very well to that. Probably will be a month before I have time to get it coded and start testing it out myself so any insight you provide on it will be very useful to me.
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Old Oct 21, 2015, 12:21pm   #39
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DrSafari started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Toad View Post
I look forward to any further comment you have on this system as I am actually taking a bit of a hiatus from my trading/system development to test this out myself. For me though, I am going to spend some time automating it since manual trading this way will not be practical for me. I have come to the realization that an automatic system is probably the best way forward for me and this system in particular lends itself very well to that. Probably will be a month before I have time to get it coded and start testing it out myself so any insight you provide on it will be very useful to me.
It will probably have to wait until I've got my other broker set up, but i'm in the process of doing that. To be continued
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Old Oct 21, 2015, 1:03pm   #40
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Real Account
Internet at work was down so couldn't trade european stocks this week. But before that there was still one trade I haven't documented yet.

Short We
Amount: 100 shares
Reason of closure: wanted to reel in my modest profits and didn't want to hold it over the weekend. Looking at the chart I made a good decision. Cause right after I closed my position it went up again. Of course it might just as easily have gone down but then I would have re-entered my position on monday. It didn't do that because it stagnated around the level you can see at the end of the chart... and I also didn't have internet at work

Opening rate: 1.183,83
Opening time:16/10/2015 3:27:24 PM
Amount risked: not sure anymore but looking at the technicals and the price it was probably around 30€

Close rate: 1.164,67
Close time: 16/10/2015 4:48:39 PM
Net P/L: € +26,01

Current equity: € 4.674,58

Chart is a 15 minute chart
we_short.jpg


It was also risky because it was so close to the weekend and when I was considering doing the trade I wasn't rushing in and checked all the parameters I could think of, except that it was friday lol. That was the only mistake I made.


Demo account testings are still on hold due to this week being mad busy for me.

Last edited by DrSafari; Oct 21, 2015 at 1:09pm.
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Old Oct 23, 2015, 3:55pm   #41
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DrSafari started this thread Real account
Did another trade. First the technicals and then my comments I made sure to make a screenshot when the position was still open as to not lose information. I'm getting better and better at the process of keeping a journal

Short Ved
Amount: 200 shares
Reason of closure: stop loss reached
Opening rate: 493,29
Opening time:21/10/2015 3:01:13 PM

Initial stop loss: 510.12
Amount risked: €45,78

Close rate: 505,76
Close time: 23/10/2015 9:06:30 AM
Net P/L: € -34,26

Current equity: € 4.640,32

I have mixed feelings with this trade. The chart looked nice enough and as soon as I got in it was going in my direction indeed. At some point I was €+25 positive. Not a big amount but also not THAT small if you're risking €45. However, you have to let a winning trade run so that's why I kept it. Raising the stop loss above zero to always make profits would take me out in no time due to market noise so that's not good either so I just raised it to around €-20 instead of €-45, keeping the same distance in points as originally.

However today right after the market opened it gapped up and the position got closed leaving me with a loss of €34,26. A difference of around €60 if I had taken the profits. You can always close the position and re-enter later if things are still going that way but in this case due to spread I would lose €7-8 each time. Not a small amount if your profit level is only €25.

In the end I did decide to keep it open because lately I had the feeling I was closing my positions too soon instead of letting them run (even though in retrospect they have been good decisions). I think I just need more experience in order to "know" or have a good feel for when to close a position and when to keep it running. Maybe I will find out that sometimes you have huge rallies (up or down) and can make up for a lot of small losses and more by holding on to a position. On the other hand, always make sure you keep in mind the economic events and any possible major news events which might influence it.

You win some and you lose some of course, this can't be avoided. But it doesn't feel good to let profits turn into loss.
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Old Oct 23, 2015, 8:41pm   #42
Joined Jan 2006
Howdy!
I just skim-read a couple of your posts. Great work on keeping up your journal!

A couple of questions:
-How come your transaction costs (your spreads) are so high?
- Have you thought about how much that could eat into your bottom line (you can assess this by developing an expectancy model for your strategy, and then varying the transaction costs)?
- How much backtesting have you done on your strategy thus far? You might be able to progress a lot faster in terms of figuring out the viability of your strategy by engaging in more backtesting, rather than by taking one trade at a time in a live setting. By backtesting I mean either in Excel or in a simulated environment such as ForexTester.

Just recently the reality of the importance of testing has smacked me in the face once again, so I thought I share that "insight" with you.

Good luck & have a nice weekend!
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Old Oct 26, 2015, 12:36pm   #43
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DrSafari started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by options-george
A couple of questions:
-How come your transaction costs (your spreads) are so high?
Bad broker I guess. I'm using plus500 and while at first when I was new to trading it seemed a good one cause they have no transaction costs but of course I had no idea the spread was so high.. didn't even know spread existed. I am in the process of switching though.

Quote:
- Have you thought about how much that could eat into your bottom line (you can assess this by developing an expectancy model for your strategy, and then varying the transaction costs)?
I have thought about it but never put anything on paper. Anyway the costs are too high so the plan to switch broker is definite.


Quote:
- How much backtesting have you done on your strategy thus far? You might be able to progress a lot faster in terms of figuring out the viability of your strategy by engaging in more backtesting, rather than by taking one trade at a time in a live setting. By backtesting I mean either in Excel or in a simulated environment such as ForexTester.
I have been using it since january.. but adapted it as I was going along since I gained more and more knowledge (basics are still the same though). I am already fairly sure it's a good strategy but before I commit more money to it I want to be 100% sure. I have not yet made an analysis of my results but I have the feeling I am making money with it. The times I lost money was when I deviated from my system. I will also look into the ForexTester thingy thanks!
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Old Nov 2, 2015, 1:01pm   #44
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Demo account
Finally got around to starting testing a tweaked version of the previous system. I threw away all 15 stocks on my watchlist and replaced them by 15 new ones. System in itself is the same the only thing I added on to it is to look for cleaner charts like I do in my real account system. The interesting thing I noticed was that when I saw a clean chart the indicators in the system usually (90% of cases) would allow me to put that stock in the watchlist too. So unconciously I have been using part of this system with my real trades too.. because apparently what I call a clean chart is more or less saying the same as looking at the indicators... but this statement is not true the other way around. So this system is stricter than the previous one. We'll see how it works out.

Real account
I'm not in any trades at the moment. I'll analyse the European Economic Sentiment Indicators tonight so i'll have a watchlist ready for November
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Old Nov 10, 2015, 10:49am   #45
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DrSafari started this thread Real account
Analysed the European Economic Sentiment Indicators generating 22 trading ideas (some long some short). Next I look at the charts of those and if they look good I take up a position. Two suitable charts out of those yesterday so I went long two times, both were losers unfortunately. One trade (Ca) was not that good of a trade, the entry point wasn't that good. I'm not sure what my "logic" was for ignoring that. I think it's because in my demo account it's exactly that what I'm trying to do, get a good entry point, but that tactic has only worked once out of 7-8 trades that's why I dismissed the bad entry point remark (all in my head of course). But of course it's a different system so I'm comparing apples and oranges so I should NOT ignore obvious bad entry points ever.

Second trade (Kon) was nothing wrong with but just went south as soon as I took a long position. I'll write that one off as an inevitable loser.

Long Kon
Amount: 50 shares
Reason of closure: stop loss reached
Opening rate: 26.87
Opening time: 11/9/2015 11:29:49 AM

Amount risked: around €55

Close rate: 25.65
Close time: 11/10/2015 9:06:34 AM
Net P/L: € -61.38

Chart is a 30 min chart. Green is Open. Red is close. Orange line is stop loss.
kon_long.jpg

I will document the bad entry point Ca trade as well in a next post.
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