Market-Moving News: Live Video Archives From My Trading Screen

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Old Mar 25, 2014, 10:50pm   #1
Joined Mar 2014
Market-Moving News: Live Video Archives From My Trading Screen

Hi everyone,

I recently decided I would record one of my trading screens, all day every day, and publish clips from when the markets are at their most exciting (to me). A highlight show, if you will, but for the markets.

Why? Just as a hobby.

I cover scheduled data releases - obvious stuff like NFP, ISM Manufacturing, Inflation data, Central Bank Decisions...
And also unscheduled releases, be that World War 3, Draghi making a surprise statement, whatever...

So without further ado, here are some interesting 3/4 minute videos from today (Tuesday 25th March 2014).

Unscheduled Events


In the early afternoon (12:50 UK Time), ECB's Makuch claimed members of the ECB board are prepared to take decisive steps if needed and one of the possibilities is adding liquidity.
6E behaved nervously and this was a sign of things to come later on...



The Big Dog Draghi was scheduled to speak at the Sciences Po Conference in Paris, and at 16:15 UK Time he re-iterated that the ECB stands ready to take additional monetary measures.
Nothing new right? Well 6E took a considerable dive and it didn't require a high speed supercomputer to get in on the action either.
On a Harry Hindsight Impact Scale, I'd call this a 6!


Scheduled Events


09:00 AM London Time saw the release of German IFO Business Climate - 110.7 vs Expectations of 110.9
To my surprise, the EUR moved a fair bit, albeit so quickly perhaps the best trade there was to fade it?


09:30 AM London Time came and with it the release of UK CPI at 1.7% vs Expectations of 1.7%
Despite coming in bang in-line, 6B similarly put in a considerable move, although no easy money in my opinion to be had.


14:00 London Time saw US Consumer Confidence hitting 82.3, a good bit above the Expected figure of 78.5
The market (ES) response was muted, and the failure to rally was perhaps a reliable signal that the next move was to the downside. Several points were lost over the next half-hour.

Last edited by Steve; Mar 31, 2014 at 9:34pm. Reason: link removed
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Old Mar 26, 2014, 8:10pm   #2
Joined Mar 2014
HarryHindsight started this thread A very quiet day so I'll simply leave you with US Durable Goods.
Boeing single handedly pushed it to 2.2% but otherwise the figure wasn't too far off expectation. Is this figure likely to impact Fed policy? Nah.


Last edited by HarryHindsight; Mar 26, 2014 at 8:10pm.
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Old Apr 1, 2014, 8:16pm   #5
Joined Mar 2014
HarryHindsight started this thread Today was significant for three reasons, in my eyes. Two pieces of big scheduled economic data releases, and thirdly, the fact this was the day of the month.
Analysis has shown there is a tendency in the US equity markets to see a rally, as supposed inflows of fresh Fund money must be deployed across the markets.

As to the data...

* In the morning, 09:30 UK Time, GBP Manufacturing PMI came at a slightly disappointing 55.3 (as against 56.7 consensus).
The jerk downwards in 6B was no surprise and nor was the speed of the move. Unless you own a supercomputer this was hardly a free money trade.



* And again at 15:00 UK Time the story was repeated, with US ISM Manufacturing PMI registering 53.7 as against 54.2 expected. The markets seem to be very much driven by the central banks and ES initially continued to grind higher as it had been doing so since lunch time.

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Old Apr 3, 2014, 10:45pm   #6
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HarryHindsight started this thread The day many had been waiting for: ECB Statement.
Draghi sits down and begins his report, having already decided to make no changes to lending and deposit rates.
2 minutes in, and 6E has rallied a good 30 points… but tentatively. My view is it may have in part been due to shorts unwinding their bets that Draghi had some hint of something up his sleeve.

This is a special blog post in that the video is a full hour long, containing several major markets as they gyrate, alongside live audio from Draghi’s statement and Q&A session.

Personally I didn’t see any obvious trades to make. Yes, the Euro moved up, and later moved down, but I prefer the trades that are smacking you in the face: “The ECB … admits defeat… Mario is tired… I retire”. That sort of news.

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Old Apr 4, 2014, 6:43pm   #7
Joined Mar 2014
HarryHindsight started this thread In some respects it was a boring session. Everyone was waiting for NFP and when it finally arrived it was broadly in-line with expectations.
* NFP: 192K as against 199K consensus
* Unemployment rate: 6.7% as against 6.6% consensus.

But having said that, several markets have spent the remainder of the session trending beautifully.

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Old Apr 9, 2014, 10:01pm   #8
Joined Mar 2014
HarryHindsight started this thread

FOMC Minutes. Free money (?) if you had the guts to buy at the first sign of dovish sentiment.
archived at
www.harryhindsightnews.com

Last edited by HarryHindsight; Apr 9, 2014 at 10:02pm.
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