Breakouts are back...

China Diapers

China Diapers

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And so am I. I was over T2W for a while but outside of this place I have nobody to talk about trading with and it's getting lonely.

I had previously given up on trading these breakouts as my exit method didn't suit my temperament, trailing the resulting move with an MA meant I was in the market sometimes for months which was mental torture and the financing costs all add up. After some reflection I realised the answer is to set myself targets. One of my influences trading-wise is John Magee and he actually suggests this in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends but I had decided to ignore him.

Attached is a chart for Pepco, energy stock. I went long following the bozo on increased volume at February 10th. Looking to get out at the next area which may offer resistance at 20.80. Initial volatility based stop with a risk reward of 3.5:1 (roughly), stop loss has been moved to breakeven.

I've noticed a lot of consolidation patterns like this in energy stocks recently.

I am not making any effort to time the market, just taking each breakout as it comes.
 

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I am watching the mining sector at the moment, particularly precious metals, looks like something may be afoot.

Something interesting is I work with this dude who is a value investing enthusiast (OK I do have one person to discuss trading with), he believes chart watchers are akin to palm-readers, and he came to the same conclusion re miners using his techniques.
 

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China Diapers said:
I am watching the mining sector at the moment, particularly precious metals, looks like something may be afoot.

Something interesting is I work with this dude who is a value investing enthusiast (OK I do have one person to discuss trading with), he believes chart watchers are akin to palm-readers, and he came to the same conclusion re miners using his techniques.
Click to expand...

Double bottom forming on Anglo American too
I came to the same conclusions re mining
 
Copper on my watch list too
 

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GEMD is a possible one for your miner watchlist - Stage 1B, watch for a breakout above the range backed by a strong increase in volume.
 

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China Diapers said:
Not trading related but hey, it's my thread.

Continuing where I left off with what I believe will be the defining issue of our time, the technological displacement of labour:

http://singularityhub.com/2014/02/16/google-partnering-with-foxconn-to-test-industrial-robots/
Click to expand...

when you say "our time"..this has been happening for the last 30 or so years
Manufacturing has been looking for more ways to cut the cost of production and the biggest cost will always be materials and labour. The cost of materials is driven largely by commodity prices, oil/fuel related and the raw material component itself so the true variable that can be controlled is labour price and efficiency. Upfront investment in technology is a small price for the future. thats how its viewed rightly or wrongly
 
malaguti said:
when you say "our time"..this has been happening for the last 30 or so years
Manufacturing has been looking for more ways to cut the cost of production and the biggest cost will always be materials and labour. The cost of materials is driven largely by commodity prices, oil/fuel related and the raw material component itself so the true variable that can be controlled is labour price and efficiency. Upfront investment in technology is a small price for the future. thats how its viewed rightly or wrongly
Click to expand...

Yes it's been coming for a while but the rate of automation has really picked up recently and looking to go parabolic (even Chinese firms like Foxconn are looking to ditch their workers, and Google's getting involved too) and I believe in our (or at least my) lifetimes there will be a point where there will not be enough work to keep the majority of people in employment.

I honestly don't believe that people of my two year old daughters generation will have the expectation that they will work a 9 - 5 for a living, irrespective of whether they would like to or not.

This could work out two ways, either some form of wealth distribution from the owners of capital to non-owners, or government nationalisation of industry. I am not crazy about either of those but not doing anything is not an option, even for corporations as they need people to have an income to buy their products and would soon go out of business otherwise, unless they cater only to the weatlhy.
 
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China Diapers said:
Yes it's been coming for a while but the rate of automation has really picked up recently and looking to go parabolic (even Chinese firms like Foxconn are looking to ditch their workers, and Google's getting involved too) and I believe in our (or at least my) lifetimes there will be a point where there will not be enough work to keep the majority of people in employment.

I honestly don't believe that people of my two year old daughters generation will have the expectation that they will work a 9 - 5 for a living, irrespective of whether they would like to or not.

This could work out two ways, either some form of wealth distribution from the owners of capital to non-owners, or government nationalisation of industry. I am not crazy about either of those but not doing anything is not an option, even for corporations as they need people to have an income to buy their products and would soon go out of business otherwise, unless they cater only to the weatlhy.
Click to expand...

Hi China. Good to see you back :)

There's also the development of 3D printers - I guess they are at the stage of the Wright brothers getting the first flying machine to stay airborne for a hundred yards or so.

Everything is hitting the use of peoples' labour as the means of spreading the jam (however lumpily it's always been spread). Perhaps over the next century or two "work" will be as obsolete as cigarettes. In the meantime Governments have to find some way of dealing with the change. They've not done much of a job so far given the areas of deprivation here in UK where labour intensive activities that sustained those areas have disappeared.
 
barjon said:
Hi China. Good to see you back :)

There's also the development of 3D printers - I guess they are at the stage of the Wright brothers getting the first flying machine to stay airborne for a hundred yards or so.

Everything is hitting the use of peoples' labour as the means of spreading the jam (however lumpily it's always been spread). Perhaps over the next century or two "work" will be as obsolete as cigarettes. In the meantime Governments have to find some way of dealing with the change. They've not done much of a job so far given the areas of deprivation here in UK where labour intensive activities that sustained those areas have disappeared.
Click to expand...

Thanks John, good to see you still here, and thanks for humouring my ramblings.

I have 3D printer in my garage, yeah the opportunities are limitless and the industrial models are already doing some pretty amazing stuff. fabbaloo.com is a good site for keeping up with developments, things are moving pretty quick. 3D printing could eliminate some of the need to work from the consumers perspective if we can 3D print most of the things we need rather than have to earn the money to buy them.

On the subject of redistribution I am small government kind of guy, so I prefer market-based solutions where possible. One idea which I like is a non-means tested Universal Basic Income, which ideally would be linked to taxes on use of land and natural resources, but I don't expect to many people to get on-board with that one :)
 
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Just closed Pepco, my sixth sense was telling me it was never going to hit it's target. R:R was just over 1:3
 
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