My Foot Z Journal

This is a discussion on My Foot Z Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I wanted to continue a FTSE Trading blog started on another forum in hopes of getting some more experienced FTSE ...

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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:37pm   #1
 
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My Foot Z Journal

I wanted to continue a FTSE Trading blog started on another forum in hopes of getting some more experienced FTSE traders ( being a UK Forum and all) to comment on my Daily Plan. I feel i am headed in the right direction but I'm always open to some advice to help me improve.

I will post the other Blog entries from the past 5 days or so forward...

Where i take live trades i will post the "Post Mortum".

Size:
-For my prime trades i trade 4 contracts
-For scalps i trade 2 contracts
-Quite often if i'm not confident i will take the trade on the SIM only
-More often than not i stand aside if i don't feel confident that the order flow is on my side of the trade

Regarding the Plan:
I'm not trying to forecast the market, but I am trying to avoid placing myself in trades that have a greater risk of failing. That's why I use the Volume Profile to structure the market and try to develop "IF/Then" statements.


Cheers,


CanOz

Last edited by canaussieuck; Feb 27, 2013 at 1:59pm.
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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:39pm   #2
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread 21st February 2013, 02:49 PM IP

Well last night saw the market move up as we said, doing what we said it could do if it broke higher. We got in too early on the pullback and got stopped out by 1 tick as the market reversed and hit new highs, such is trading. After that we has a few scalps but no full size trades. All up a -ve night for me.

What actually happened:
After the market established an small initial balance area between 49 and 63 it broke higher on good volume taking out 65.5. We then pulled backed much deeper than i expected, to the VWAP before buyer once again swamped the offers and sent the market in a 13 point non stop rampage. We again pulled back to and tagged the first breakout high before charging off again another 20 points...We then pulled back again to the 1 STD VWAP and then made the final high at 96.5, a couple of points higher than out triangle target and just shy of 6400. Looking back there were so many opportunities even after the double top. So much easier if we could just trade in hindsight.

The market had established a nice double distribution and then was sold off hard into the close, below the initial balance area, the low of the day and the previous close. This is a remarkable change of events. We've gone from bracket to very bullish trend to a total rejection of higher prices....

So what can happened today?
Price can move down:
a. Price will most likely gap down if the Asian markets and oil/FX are anything to go by. If we gap below 54.4 i would expect a test before dropping off, then that would be a chance to look for rejection and get short. I would not expect last session VPOC to be tested today, its just too far away (6388.5). If we open at or above 54.5 then i would expect a test of 42.5 pretty quickly...probe for sellers. We would need to look for shorts into a bounce. Either way our target for today will be around the 6293.5 area where there is a large value area on the composite. I could see the market looking for value there and bracketing. If we drop below this area then the next stop for value is 6260.5.

Price can bracket:
The market could open and bracket but i just don't think we've got enough support at this level to hold the market, 6347 is a naked VPOC so i expect it will be tested. 6322 could turn the market temporarily but i feel the market has the best chance of looking for value lower at 6293.5.

Price could move up:
I really think we'll be looking for value and then need to bracket for a while before higher prices have a chance again....I do not expect higher prices today unless we have some kind of very bullish news.

News today is PMI out of EU, Public Sector borrowing out the UK, some CPI out of Ireland and then CPI out of the US...nothing too big really. We do however have Spain and France selling debt, so that could be interesting if we're over 5.4 and 4.25 % yield respectively...

We are Bearish down/Bracket

Again the key levels for rejection from top to bottom are:
6397
6368
6342.5
6276.5
6254.5
6242
6213

And key levels for price to be accepted, from top down are:
6888.5
6354.5
6332
6293.5
6260.5
6246.5
6206.5


Cheers,
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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:41pm   #3
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread 22nd February 2013, 02:53 PM IP

We ended up in the value area that we highlighted as a possibility. We're not trying to forecast the market, but we are trying to avoid placing ourselves in trades that have a greater risk of failing. That's why we use the Volume Profile to structure the market and develop our "IF/Then" statements.

Also, as an Admin note, I've moved this thread to the Discretionary Trading Styles forum so those that share this style of trading can comment and contribute. I have allot to learn in regards to the markets and of particular interest to me is the Market/Volume Profile style of organizing the markets information.

What actually Happened

So, what happened last session? We opened right at 6332 and attempted to retrace to the prior session close at 6351, but failed. That failure just 10 minutes after the cash open was the sell signal, highlighted on the 150 tick chart to show not the value of hindsight, but what to look for in terms of selling pressure. Its always a difficult decision for me whether or not to trade during the IB phase. There are times when it makes sense to let the market bracket out the Initial Balance and times when the best opportunity will be to take the trade during the open. This just comes with experience and until we feel confident to take the trade we can stand aside, its free.

After that signal the market continued to drop at a rate so fast that by the time the IB period was finished, the market had made over half its move. The market only paused at 6322, pulled back after the break and resumed the sell off. Same thing at 6300. These are bearish moves, going right through LVNs without hardly a pause, price firmly rejected on the retest to resume its search for value.

Price attempted to bracket briefly at 6293 before finally pushing lower, flushing out longs into the value area at 6260 and bracketing up higher in choppy action typical of markets in balance.

So what now?

The market is in balance, or has established a value area at 6270 or so.

The market can move higher
a.) Looking at the ES at the time of writing the market could gap up to the 6300 area. I would expect that for the martket to continue up it would need to test the VPOC at 6275 before moving higher. If that happens and we see buyer come in we will then attempt full size longs.

We could Bracket some more
The market could open and test the value area and simply wait for new information. If this is the case then we will look for sells of the VAH at 6300 or even as high as 6322. We need to be aware that short covering could drive prices father than we can anticipate. If the market tests lower to 6260 and finds few sellers we could look for scalps size long. This needs to be a drift down on low volume, if we see volume in the selling then we need to be aware that we could be looking for lower prices.

The market can move lower
I would expect a test higher before we moved lower. Markets tend to bracket before continuing into another range extension. IF we tested 6293 or 6300 and failed, then failed to hold 6260then we should prepare for lower prices and look for PBs at those lower levels. 6124 is really the next accepted value area on the composite. If the Asian markets were still selling off then its another story. Korea for example has rallied 1% after an gap down on the open to retracing all of that move to back at 50% again....CL had been hit hard by selling and has recovered some of the losses.

Anyway, i can honestly say that i cannot recall seeing a market reverse so quickly since i have been using Market Profile for structuring the markets so i am eagerly looking forward to this session.

Today's Key Levels from top to bottom:

LVNs
6342.5
6322
6300 (key number)
6278.5
6254.5
6242

HVNs
6354
6332
6293.5
6270
6260
6213




Cheers,
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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:44pm   #4
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread 25th February 2013

So its Monday again and after the close on Friday Moody's announce a downgrade for the UK

Anyway....let go to the charts...

What happened....Well the market pretty much took off after the initial balance low was formed by tagging the 6293 comp node.

After forming a decent value area we tested that area once more before moving much higher in the US trading.

We're now got some nice naked levels to trade off of.

What could happen today?

We could trade higher:
a.) we could open and look for a test of the VPOC at 6321. If we're successful there then we can look for resistance at the VAH at 6342.

We could trade lower:
a.) if we open lower and test the VPOC from below and fail we have support at the VAL at 6293....If this does not provide support then we could close the gap at 83 and possible move lower. Below 6279 and we'll looking to go much lower.

We could bracket today:
With not allot of news out, other than the downgrade its possible that we could have a slow day. We can still look for the initial balance highs and lows to provide trading opportunities for us.

So some ket levels for today from top to bottom are:

LVNs
6397.5
6368
6350 (HOD)
6315
6278
6254

HVNs
6388.5
6354.5
6293.5
6273.5
6260.5
6246.5
6206.5
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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:46pm   #5
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread 25 February 2013 06:62 PM

Only took one trade today. My connection was good so we took a live a one.

Lots of divergence on my Bid/Ask tools and there was a 100 lots on the bid below my first target so i took the short.

Got the first three contracts off and then got stopped out at BE+1 tick for an +8.5 tick move.

The DPOC shifted up after the bounce, then i had to stay out for the news anyway. Then it shifted down again....
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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:47pm   #6
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread 25th February 2013 08:32 PM

Well we are accepting value at the HOD now, trades with favorable R/R are not forthcoming so we're sitting on our hands....

edit...i have a feeling we may try and challenge the highs...all while I'm asleep no doubt...
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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:49pm   #7
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread 26th of February 2013

What the heck happened?

Last nights US sell off on the back of the election results in Europe introduced some other time frame participants into the market that pushed price past two VPOCs and the 6260 low from a couple of sessions ago. If that wasn't enough the market then closed smack on the LOD. Wow...

So what could happen today then?

The market could go up
a.) The ES on the Globex session has recovered some what, like 23%, to the first Fibb and then pulled back. We can expect an open between the LOD at 6225.5 and 6260.5. If the market trades above 6260.5 we could expect to see some frantic short covering, driving price higher. 6280 will provide some resistance however 6294 could stop price and see it accepted. 6299 is the 50% retracement. Above 6321 and we could go back to the VPOC at 6356. Doubtful....but we need to see how much strength the move has before we commit. To me i think we would look for weakness at 6260 and try and get short.

We could bracket
a.) Its quite possible we could test low, then test high at 6260 and then establish value at 6240 ish while we wait for more information. That could provide some nice fades from those two levels.

We could go lower
a.) we could test high, reject and head lower but i would think the test of the low would be met with at least a little buying, we can evaluate then if we think shorting a pullback is less risky.

It unusual to have one range extension on top of another, but anything can happen. All we can do is be prepared to react after seeing how the market participants react at our levels.

I'm biased to a bracket but not too bullish right now....

Some key levels today - few less than normal with an expectation of volatility

6369.5 - VAH and LVN
6279 - LVN and bounce point/mid point support from last sessions decline (it deserves some respect IMO)
6260 - HVN and prior LOD
6225 - Prior LOD and Close

6175 - Last call

Not a whole lot of news but interestingly enough there is an Italian bond auction at 10 AM GMT....so that will give us an insight to the feeling on the election results anyway...this may be the key info event of the AM session.


Good trading....
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Old Feb 27, 2013, 1:51pm   #8
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread 27th of February 2013

What Happened?
Yesterday saw us bracket as we expected, then test higher into the ES session. Price was rejected at @ 6276.5, and then eventually close off the highs. As of writing we have opened pre cash at 6260.5, right around the IB high.

What could happen?

We could trade higher. We could test the VPOC at 6253.5 and then if we find buyers we could head higher and test the highs from the prior session starting with 6253.5, then 6260.5 and then the HOD at 6276.5. Doubtful...Sure we could test higher but unless we're flushing shorts out at a rate of knots i'm not to convinced we'll have higher prices....risk is on the long side.

We could bracket. We could trade in another range day today, but given that we've a full schedule of announcements, i doubt it. News out of Europe hasn't been stunning lately. If there is bad news in a trend we can soak it up and keep going, but bad news in a bracket? No way. In any case if we see slow price action we can trade short at the top of the bracket and evaluate how fast the bids are getting hit on the way down and determine if longs off the bracket floor are what we want.....doubtful.

We could head lower.
Given the news due out, the recent bracket and volatility in the currencies I'm guessing any bad news and we'll be taking out the lows. If we fail a test higher than the open then we'll look for acceptance back at the VPOC, we can look for a short here if price fails to hold. After this we'll look for price to reject the recent lows and get short if buyers don't reject.

Lots of news out, too much to list.

Key levels from top to bottom are:

LVNs
6340
6276.5
6219.5 Prior session LOD
6175 Prior LOD
6167
6095.5
6049.5
6014.5

HVNs
6293.5
6260.5 VPOC
6253.5
6246
6123
6064
6026

Good trading....
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