My Foot Z Journal

This is a discussion on My Foot Z Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Summary of what happened I missed yesterdays summary as I was away, but after a day of bracketing we moved ...

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Old Mar 7, 2013, 7:44am   #17
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread Summary of what happened
I missed yesterdays summary as I was away, but after a day of bracketing we moved up and out of that value area and accepted value in 6380 ish and then extended even further in the session. Then yesterday we moved higher again and accepted value higher to 6446 before selling off even though the US bracketed. Leading indicator for the US? Depending whether you look at the volume profile or the TPO chart, value settled at the previous VPOC. The volume profile chart has value higher as several block trades are occurring and changing the profile. Rollover is not until next week, but already we're seeing large orders sweeping mostly the bids.

Is the market in balance or out of balance?
The market is trending, or was trending. Last nights rejection of the highs was accompanied by lots of responsive selling into the close. Can we expect to see the market try and establish balance again?

What could happen today?
We could auction higher.
At the time of writing the market was looking to open slightly higher than the close, near the mid point at 6430. We could test the VPOC at 6440.5 and seek acceptance there before moving higher again, to test the HOD at 6453

We could bracket
We could look for acceptance at 6416 as we close a gap open. We could bracket between 6422 and 6406.

We could auction lower
We could seek acceptance lower through 6422 to 6380. 6331 is a strong magnet as well, its a naked VPOC from Monday.

I am a little biased short and Asia is down to neutral in double distributions or value areas over the last two sessions.

Key levels – Top to bottom
6500
6475
6453
6440.5
6422.5
6406
6380.5
6349
6331.5
6315.5


News
German factory orders, EU and UK Rates!!!
Spanish and French Bond auctions

I've included the levels on a 150 tick chart, as well as the value areas as presented on a TPO chart.

Good trading.....
Attached Thumbnails
z-03-13-150-tick-7_03_2013.jpg   z-03-13-5-min-7_03_2013.jpg   z-03-13-900-tick-7_03_2013.jpg  

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Old Mar 8, 2013, 7:57am   #18
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread Summary of what happened
We tested 6450 again and failed but did form another value area inside the previous days...and inside day again....woo hoo

Is the market in balance or out of balance?
The market is accepting value at 6440 or so for the moment.

What could happen today?
We could auction higher.
At the time of writing we are looking for an open just above the VPOC at 6445 or so. Not much data out of Europe today and none out of the UK so it could be quiet until NFP data at 1:00 PM GMT. So we could test the highs early to look for responsive buyers and there might be a fade back to value there.
We could bracket
There's a good chance we could bracket until the US data release.Edit: the market opened prior to the cash and shot up to 6468, then settled at 63

We could auction lower
If we test 6420 find sellers we could seek value lower, with a naked VPOC at 6331.5

I am neutral biased, but feel we could get a big range extension after two range bound days wuth the latter being an inside day.

Key levels – Top to bottom
6500 100% Range extension
6477 50% RE
6464 23.6% RE

6453 Wed HOD
6449.5 Prior HOD
6436 Prior VPOC
6420 Prior LOD
6406 Wed LOD
6380 Tues VPOC
6349 HOD
6331.5 Mon VPOC
6315.5 Mon LOD

News
German Industrial Production at 11:00 AM GMT. US NFP at 1:00 PM GMT

Good trading.....
Attached Thumbnails
z-03-13-900-tick-8_03_2013.jpg   z-03-13-150-tick-8_03_2013.jpg  

Last edited by canaussieuck; Mar 8, 2013 at 8:28am.
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Old Mar 12, 2013, 7:19am   #19
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread Summary of what happened
I missed yesterdays session which was uneventful until late in the morning when the market broke out of its congestion area. This large triangle broke higher until its target of 6495.5. We then retested the breakout and them moved higher again to challenge the high in the US session, which thankfully starts an hour earlier now :-)


Is the market in balance or out of balance?
The market is accepting value higher every day. IT is out of balanace and seeking value higher as the value areas continue to stack upon one another. We did end up with a double distribution and a double top pattern.

What could happen today?
We could auction higher.
At the time of writing we were looking at opneing near the close at 6490 ish. We could trade immediately higher and seek acceptance of value around the 6500 area.
We could bracket
We could trade between the new high of 6496.5 and the 6464 area, bracketing at this level as we explore the extremes for responsive buyers/sellers.

We could auction lower
We could test the VPOC at 6483 and find responsive sellers and trade lowers thorugh 6459.

I am a little biased towards a tag of 6500 before we see a meaningful reversal. We have lots of naked VPOCs below at 6483, 6459.5, & 6436

Key levels – Top to bottom
6515
6505
6500
6496.5
6489
6483
6476
6464
6459
6449

News – EU consumer prices, UK industrial production, Spanish and Italian bond auctions

Good trading.....
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Old Mar 14, 2013, 6:58am   #20
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread Going to just post the levels today...the rest is a little more obvious to those following. I'm knee deep in stats this week so time is a bit rare...

CanOz
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Old Mar 18, 2013, 7:30am   #21
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread Summary of what happened
Well we've had a good run...two words come to mind today RISK OFF...and another two, BANK RUN
We made a new high, everything was ok, value was being accepted at 6500 after we forcefully rejected 6435.5.

Is the market in balance or out of balance?
The market was accepting value at 6500, possibly balancing there in a new bracket.

What could happen today?
We could auction higher.
At the time of writing various markets in Asia are down between .5-1.5% or so, CL is down 1.1% and the ES is down 1.35% There is almost no doubt that we will gap down. IF we somehow get back to 6456 and accept value there and find responsive buyers then we could have a hope of trading higher.
We could bracket
We could open between the Virgin POCs at 6380.5 and 6332 and just accept value there.

We could auction lower
If we find responsive sellers at 6380.5 then we could trade lower to 6332 to find value there.

This is going to be an interesting day.

Key levels – Top to bottom

6518
6509
6499
6476
6456
6435
6406.5
6380.5
6362.5
6332
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z-03-13-5-min-18_03_2013.jpg   z-03-13-900-tick-18_03_2013.jpg  
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Old Mar 19, 2013, 8:46am   #22
 
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Re: My Foot Z Journal

canaussieuck started this thread Another day of volatility?
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