My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

This is a discussion on My Eur/Jpy Trade journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Stopped out for 30 pip loss. I should have waited until it was clear that support was broken. In the ...

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Old May 16, 2012, 1:05pm   #22
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Stopped out for 30 pip loss. I should have waited until it was clear that support was broken. In the back of my head I knew it. BUt instead I made a mistake I have made before. Taking a trade the day after not taking a trade in which I was hesitant but would have won if I took it. Trying to make up for missed opportunity instead of just waiting for the next best set up. I really need to stick to my first thoughts as these generally seem to be correct instead of trying to make myself justify an entry. Some news about new elections in greece probably also played a part in the movement of price. Tough to predict things like that, just have to roll with the punches. A loss but a lesson learned from loss.

Win-0
Loss-1
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Old May 16, 2012, 1:07pm   #23
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Woozel View Post
What is % of account risked and where is you stop loss? Do you have a take profit target?
I was wary of this trade so I only took 1% risk and stop loss was 30 pips vs target of 60 pips.
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Old May 16, 2012, 1:08pm   #24
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread I was targeting R2 as take profit. In hindsight I should have waited for a better entry
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Old May 16, 2012, 1:15pm   #25
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Actually stoploss is always 30 and take profit is 60 for 1:2 risk reward. This was not a quality entry but there were some reasons to take it. The news pushed price out of my favor and I was not expecting that. The retrace upwards is probably now in play and I will wait until I see price turn back before I seek short again. Will wait on the sidelines.
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Old May 17, 2012, 3:09am   #26
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Prep for the day:

3rd resistance is 103.53
2nd resistance is 103.12
1st resistance is 102.72
Pivot 102.31
1st support 101.91
2nd support 101.50
3rd support 101.10

So far I have observed that it is best to wait to make a trade until price has touched the 20MA and moved downward, those are the most high probabilty of success at least in my short observation. I have noted that price did pretty much what I expected over the day but an ill timed trade still caused a loss. I will stand aside today as the same reasons are here today. RSI on 4hr is making higher lows while lower lows have been made on 4hr chart. I do not feel to comfortable placing a short in this circumstance. The one thing that makes me think a short could still be in play is that the 20MA and the 61.8% fib retrace are pretty much right in line and appears to be strong resistance. These two together give strong confidence to short. However, news out of japan just came through that GDP growth on upside. That and the RSI divergence are enough for me to play it cautious. I may check the chart at london open anyways to see what happens.

I do not see price surpassing 102.62 or so, maybe not even past 102.55 due to confluence of resistance with 20MA and fib. May test lows down to S1 and maybe a little past to 101.83.

My prediction is a high of around 102.65 and a low of 101.83.If the news is taken positively by London price could also see rise to R2 and maybe to around 103.20.

Other reasons for holding off on trade include RSI on daily is below 30 I made the mistake yesterday of placing a trade despite this and I wont do it again unless this last support is broken. I am interested to see if I have gotten any better at understanding price action as I desire to move away from indicators in the future although I feel I will always use at least BB bands and RSI they just fit my style.

So I will test my discipline and stand aside and watch and learn.
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Old May 17, 2012, 3:16am   #27
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Whatever the case there seems to be pretty easy 60 pip move from 4am to 12am consistant and if I can figure the probabilty of direction for that day then I seem real longterm success.
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Old May 17, 2012, 11:41am   #28
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Al requiremnts were met. Took short at 4am open of candle at 102.20 target 101.60. Dont want to get to close to S2. Stop loss is break even now as price has moved down past 102.00. The reason I took the trade was due to how price was acting during close of 12am 4hr candle. It was clear price was not going to break above 20MA which has been acting as solid resistance on the 4hr chart.
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