My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

This is a discussion on My Eur/Jpy Trade journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Actually stoploss is always 30 and take profit is 60 for 1:2 risk reward. This was not a quality entry ...

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Old May 16, 2012, 1:15pm   #25
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Actually stoploss is always 30 and take profit is 60 for 1:2 risk reward. This was not a quality entry but there were some reasons to take it. The news pushed price out of my favor and I was not expecting that. The retrace upwards is probably now in play and I will wait until I see price turn back before I seek short again. Will wait on the sidelines.
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Old May 17, 2012, 3:09am   #26
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Prep for the day:

3rd resistance is 103.53
2nd resistance is 103.12
1st resistance is 102.72
Pivot 102.31
1st support 101.91
2nd support 101.50
3rd support 101.10

So far I have observed that it is best to wait to make a trade until price has touched the 20MA and moved downward, those are the most high probabilty of success at least in my short observation. I have noted that price did pretty much what I expected over the day but an ill timed trade still caused a loss. I will stand aside today as the same reasons are here today. RSI on 4hr is making higher lows while lower lows have been made on 4hr chart. I do not feel to comfortable placing a short in this circumstance. The one thing that makes me think a short could still be in play is that the 20MA and the 61.8% fib retrace are pretty much right in line and appears to be strong resistance. These two together give strong confidence to short. However, news out of japan just came through that GDP growth on upside. That and the RSI divergence are enough for me to play it cautious. I may check the chart at london open anyways to see what happens.

I do not see price surpassing 102.62 or so, maybe not even past 102.55 due to confluence of resistance with 20MA and fib. May test lows down to S1 and maybe a little past to 101.83.

My prediction is a high of around 102.65 and a low of 101.83.If the news is taken positively by London price could also see rise to R2 and maybe to around 103.20.

Other reasons for holding off on trade include RSI on daily is below 30 I made the mistake yesterday of placing a trade despite this and I wont do it again unless this last support is broken. I am interested to see if I have gotten any better at understanding price action as I desire to move away from indicators in the future although I feel I will always use at least BB bands and RSI they just fit my style.

So I will test my discipline and stand aside and watch and learn.
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Old May 17, 2012, 3:16am   #27
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Whatever the case there seems to be pretty easy 60 pip move from 4am to 12am consistant and if I can figure the probabilty of direction for that day then I seem real longterm success.
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Old May 17, 2012, 11:41am   #28
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Al requiremnts were met. Took short at 4am open of candle at 102.20 target 101.60. Dont want to get to close to S2. Stop loss is break even now as price has moved down past 102.00. The reason I took the trade was due to how price was acting during close of 12am 4hr candle. It was clear price was not going to break above 20MA which has been acting as solid resistance on the 4hr chart.
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Old May 17, 2012, 12:17pm   #29
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by ndnole View Post
Al requiremnts were met. Took short at 4am open of candle at 102.20 target 101.60. Dont want to get to close to S2. Stop loss is break even now as price has moved down past 102.00. The reason I took the trade was due to how price was acting during close of 12am 4hr candle. It was clear price was not going to break above 20MA which has been acting as solid resistance on the 4hr chart.
You are posting a winning trade nearly 2 hours and 40 mins after you entered it?
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Old May 17, 2012, 12:28pm   #30
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread I was much to sleepy this morning to post it this morning. Not asking to take my word for it though. There would be no benefit to me to do so for this journal as it is a learning tool for myself to get better.
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Old May 17, 2012, 12:29pm   #31
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread But take profit has been hit out t 101.65 didnt want to risk it.
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Old May 17, 2012, 12:33pm   #32
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Win-1
Loss-1

net so far +25 pips

Take profit ended up being 55 pips not 30

Last edited by ndnole; May 17, 2012 at 10:07pm. Reason: correct pip amount
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