My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

This is a discussion on My Eur/Jpy Trade journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by ndnole You are correct it is technically not a win. I call this a win not as ...

View Poll Results: Do you think this is a sound plan?
Yes keep up the good work 1 100.00%
Yes but it needs refinement 0 0%
No it is not sustainable 0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 1. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old May 15, 2012, 3:12pm   #15
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by ndnole View Post
You are correct it is technically not a win.

I call this a win not as a trade but a win in the method. I see that there are some things that will be subjective as to entry and exit such as will I risk taking trade even though there is clear divergence (I will not) or pending market news that could effect direction. However, I dub it a win in its plainest sense in that it meet the basic requirements and 30 pip stoploss was not hit before 60 pip target.

To answer your other question yes I would call that a loss if a trade hit stop loss. Only in its plainest and basic sense because that would mean the method failed. In the case above the method worked I just did not take the trade. Perhaps Is hould seperate wins for the basic method vs wins and losses for my actual trades.
You not taking the trade because of the news and your emotions IS part of the method. You didn't take the trade because you felt it would be a -ev play to do so.

I reckon:
Win 0
Loss 0
Mr Woozel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 15, 2012, 3:22pm   #16
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Woozel View Post
You not taking the trade because of the news and your emotions IS part of the method. You didn't take the trade because you felt it would be a -ev play to do so.

I reckon:
Win 0
Loss 0
Noted. And agreed. Didnt really think of it that way.

Win-0
Loss-0
ndnole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 15, 2012, 11:08pm   #17
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Here is were disipline must take place. It is nowhere near London open yet I am itching to place a short trade at 102.16 which is the current price. This is right on support and not wise to place short here without proof it is broke. Too much bad news in eurozone will surely push this lower even with RSI at oversold levels. I will resist the urge to place the trade because I must be steadfast with sticking to my plan but I felt I should note my desire to deviate already. Very tough to not over trade when you see pips for the taking. There is pretty much no support below this point so a short here can go a long way possibly. But I am well aware that even though this is a pair to short it will not go down in a straight line. Price was pushed back from the 102.53 fib 61.8% so I feel further downside. However, I will wait and stick to the plan and observe price action til London open. After 8pm eastern I will formulate my strategy and prep with pivot support and resistance for the next day to see whether there is a high probability short.
ndnole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 16, 2012, 1:34am   #18
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Ok, the daily candle has closed at 8pm. Now its prep time for LOndon open.

3rd resistance is 103.58
2nd resistance is 103.23
1st resistance is 102.75
Pivot 102.40
1st support 101.92
2nd support 101.57
3rd support 101.09

Price on daily is near lower BB2 which is fine. Bands are both widenning which signifies that price may well continue downward. Widenning BB bands generally show price movement in a volatile fashion. The state of the eu leads me to think that upside price action is not likely so downward is in play.

RSI on daily is currently 28.75 which is near enough to 30 as looking at past history has shown this pair to trade below RSI 30 pretty steadily.

All factors are in play on the 4 hour chart and RSI is 33.15 currently. I wont bend to much on RSI on the 4hr chart. 33 is acceptable in this case. Still some divergence on 4hr chart but RSI peak has made a lower high.

I hope for price to reach 4hr 20MA of 102.84 or that area which would give me some room to short, it lines up pretty closely with R1 which is ideal.

Likely price may rise to around 102.60 and flirt with R1. I hope to see some price exhaustion by London open if price is in this area. From there I can see price testing the first level of support S1 101.92 to possibly as low as 101.78. I may stay out of trade is price passes the previous daily high of 102.87 as this might mean a brief retrace which I do expect at some point on the otherhand if price reaches that point it could end up making this daily candle a fairly large wick with price to the downside but I do not wish for a gravestone doji.

The plan:
perfect entry for me would be touch of 4hr 20MA right before london open or right after with sign of exhaustion or price exhaustion before hitting 20 MA. A short of 1 lot will be entered because I am still fearful that resistance will hold up as it appears to be the last thing holding it in place. A long way down from here.
ndnole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 16, 2012, 1:40am   #19
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread 4hr after prep.

Should cross pivot and hit at least R1 hopefully.
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx Eurjpy chart may 15.xlsx (72.9 KB, 54 views)

Last edited by ndnole; May 16, 2012 at 1:41am. Reason: chart
ndnole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 16, 2012, 10:48am   #20
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Took short at 102.16 allrequirements met. Price is near resistance but broke it in previous candle down to R1almost to the pip. I beleive R2 will be tested which will give room for target to be hit.
ndnole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 16, 2012, 1:01pm   #21
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by ndnole View Post
Took short at 102.16 allrequirements met. Price is near resistance but broke it in previous candle down to R1almost to the pip. I beleive R2 will be tested which will give room for target to be hit.
What is % of account risked and where is you stop loss? Do you have a take profit target?
Mr Woozel is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Did you know Eur/Usd, Usd/Jpy, and Eur/Jpy are all connected?? shakespeare515 Forex 54 May 8, 2013 12:23am
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, CHF/JPY (Forecasts) TiminSolution Forex 1 Sep 26, 2011 10:03am
GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/JPY Technical analysis TraderDTS Forex 4 Mar 8, 2010 4:45am
Eur/Jpy benmaya Forex 4 Dec 1, 2009 8:53am
1H Box Breakout EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY jahual89 Forex 0 Jun 9, 2009 9:10pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)