My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

This is a discussion on My Eur/Jpy Trade journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Well there seems to be a make or break point right now in this pair. I will have to wait ...

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Old May 15, 2012, 1:08am   #8
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Well there seems to be a make or break point right now in this pair. I will have to wait and see. It is nearing the daily close of candle and here are some things I have plotted in prep for the trade at london open. It appears that it will close 102.46 or thereabouts.It is currently stalling at the 61.8% retracement of the last swing which leads me to believe there could be buyers here. If it breaks this support102.53(61.8%) retracementthen there is not much stopping it below.


3rd resistance is 104.31 (which is also very near 50% retracement of major swing)
2nd resistance is 103.84
1st resistance is 103.16 (which is also right on the 20MA)
Pivot 102.69
1st support 102.01
2nd support 101.54
3rd support 100.86

The plan for the day
Likely to be no trade since several rules are not valid.
Daily RSI is below 30, 4hr RSI is below 30 and has touched the lower BB3 band

What I am hoping for is a bounce from this level to at least the pivot of 102.69 but I would love for price to reach near R1 of 103.16 I dont foresee it passing that. I hope it takes 2 4hr candles to do that. I am hopeful this will happen because there is upward divergence on 4hr RSI making a higher low while price has made a lower low, should be some upward movement from here considering bounce off lower BB bands and RSI below 30. In this case the expected retrace will have taken place and allow me to consider a sell if all requirements are met.

The less desirable scenario would be for price to range inbetween pivot and S1
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Old May 15, 2012, 1:26am   #9
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Here is what my chart looks like after 8pm prepping. Please see attachment
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx Eurjpy chart may 14.xlsx (67.0 KB, 60 views)
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Old May 15, 2012, 1:52pm   #10
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Did not take trade at london open. German GDP came in positive and price did move above pivot but not to R1. Price moving off of Lower BB3 meant that there was not a lot of downside potential worth the risk. Took a small short trade at 8:30am after 30 minute candle closed below 20MA but price moved above and I closed trade for a small loss. This entry was not within the rules. Sometimes you need a small smack in the hand to remind yourself to stay firm in following the plan. Only a loss of 7 pips but a reminder not take a trade outside of rules again.

Price should continue to move upwards with the 'supposed' good news out of germany but I believe it still wont surpas R1 by much. I am hoping it stays near the 4hr 20 MA. In that case I should have a decent setup for London open if all things line up.

To any reading.........DONT diverge from your plan even if you think its a good call. YOu will get lucky sometimes and more oftn than not you will get burned.
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Old May 15, 2012, 2:29pm   #11
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Another note to remember for myself. Had I not been so technical and sold at London open I would have gained my 60 pips for the day. London open was 102.82 and at this time 9:24 est price has gone as low as 102.15. Target would have been met. However I am still ok with not taking the trade because there were indications of upwards movement plus news out of germany. In fact the reason for the steep drop in price was due to news that a meeting did not go so well with greece. I choose not to guess which way the news will take price as it could easily have gone the other way. Best to stay out of those situations and leave it to the pros. All the same I will call this a win because at london open 5/15/12 all requirements were met or close.

Stat update

Win-1
Loss-0
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Old May 15, 2012, 2:49pm   #12
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by ndnole View Post
Another note to remember for myself. Had I not been so technical and sold at London open I would have gained my 60 pips for the day. London open was 102.82 and at this time 9:24 est price has gone as low as 102.15. Target would have been met. However I am still ok with not taking the trade because there were indications of upwards movement plus news out of germany. In fact the reason for the steep drop in price was due to news that a meeting did not go so well with greece. I choose not to guess which way the news will take price as it could easily have gone the other way. Best to stay out of those situations and leave it to the pros. All the same I will call this a win because at london open 5/15/12 all requirements were met or close.

Stat update

Win-1
Loss-0
I am confused with what you are actually calling a win. You did not open a trade and you had your reasons for that. So, as there was no trade, there was no target, so what are you actually calling a win? If you don't take a trade that would have hit you stop loss, are you going to call that a loss?

Last edited by Mr Woozel; May 15, 2012 at 2:58pm.
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Old May 15, 2012, 2:51pm   #13
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread Further note. Double Bollinger bands really show the limits to where price will go. The touch of BB3 tends to be the max either high or low in price action, if price does continue past it it does not do it by much and then it pulls away in the opposite direction. Because of this I will continue to adhere to not making trades too near the Lower and Upper BB3 bands and in fact will make these level hard take profits permanately. If price touches upper BB3 on 4hr or daily before take profit I will exit trade no matter what.
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Old May 15, 2012, 2:57pm   #14
Joined Apr 2012
Re: My Eur/Jpy Trade journal

ndnole started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Woozel View Post
I am confused as to what you are actually calling a win? You did not open a trade and you had your reasons for that. So there was no target as there was no trade so what are you actually calling a win? If you don't take a trade that would have hit you stop loss, are you going to call that a loss?
You are correct it is technically not a win.

I call this a win not as a trade but a win in the method. I see that there are some things that will be subjective as to entry and exit such as will I risk taking trade even though there is clear divergence (I will not) or pending market news that could effect direction. However, I dub it a win in its plainest sense in that it meet the basic requirements and 30 pip stoploss was not hit before 60 pip target.

To answer your other question yes I would call that a loss if a trade hit stop loss. Only in its plainest and basic sense because that would mean the method failed. In the case above the method worked I just did not take the trade. Perhaps Is hould seperate wins for the basic method vs wins and losses for my actual trades.
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