duc's Journal

This is a discussion on duc's Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Week 14 Results Again, a profitable week. An observation on opportunity. Again, from perusing the boards here, it becomes apparent ...

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Old Mar 31, 2012, 3:23am   #11
 
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Re: duc's Journal

ducati998 started this thread Week 14 Results

Again, a profitable week.

An observation on opportunity. Again, from perusing the boards here, it becomes apparent that there are any number of fraudulent undertakings promoting systems, etc.

This is why, along with the newsletter, that obviously can only be read in hindsight, an independent third party auditor of the results, which are the m@rketocracy results that I post each week.

Therefore with independent verification of the results, it is quite clear that the market can be traded profitably.

The fear of the opportunity must clearly lie elsewhere, for instance: what about when the market changes, viz. when the trend bends at the end. A legitimate concern and one that is managed very easily by the structure of the trade [remember my own positions are actually Option positions which leverage the results, but also modify the risk]

Of course, if you are looking to place trades on a purely directional basis, then the evidence will have to take an empirical basis, and you will simply need to observe how I navigate the bend at the end when it actually arrives - which at some point, it will.

jog on
duc
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Old Apr 2, 2012, 7:28am   #12
 
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Re: duc's Journal

ducati998 started this thread I've just had a quick look at the FX trading coach thread, and somewhere in the thread there are [i] a photo of some car [ii] located in NZ.

Please.

If you want to do it properly, check out Tim Sykes, private jet, Las Vegas, lot's of booze, hookers and penthouse, throw in Wayne Gretzky and Michael Jordan for good measure...all in a couple days of earning from trading stocks.

March 2012 Vegas Recap: Private Jets, Jordan, Gretzky, Cassavetes, Gorgeous Girls, Giant Champagne Bottles, 20-Minute Video Of My Penthouse Villa

jog on
duc
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Old Apr 7, 2012, 8:19pm   #13
 
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Re: duc's Journal

ducati998 started this thread The results from Week 15

The S&P 500 ETF tracker SPY finished 0.31% lower this week, thus I lost some 'open profit'. Actually this is not the way to really look at the trade, or any trade for that matter. More to the point is that any methodology seeking to capture trends will always surrender at some point some of the open profit while waiting for the exit criteria to have been met. This methodology is a trend capture methodology.

The methodology 'exits' on a weekly close, not a daily close. The signal, to date, has not yet set-up, so, the trade remains open.

Next week sees the start of Q2 earnings. This may well increase the volatility in the market, and an increased volatility need not mean a fall, look at the calculation for volatility, and then look at various market periods. Of course, increased volatility creating bear conditions is the popular perception, and with good reason.

jog on
duc
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Old Apr 9, 2012, 5:40am   #14
 
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ducati998 started this thread An Easter freebie.

This week's [16] now posted.

jog on
duc
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Old Aug 29, 2012, 4:55am   #15
 
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ducati998 started this thread Just an update, now on week 35

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Old Sep 2, 2012, 6:06am   #16
 
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ducati998 started this thread Update...

In addition to the returns shown here, there is an additional return generated through the selling of Option premium. This is very low risk.

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Old Sep 2, 2012, 1:53pm   #17
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Re: duc's Journal

What is your method?
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Old Sep 2, 2012, 5:53pm   #18
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Leopard View Post
What is your method?
You want the recipe to the secret sauce?

There are two primary methodologies. The first is a core holding of stock, in this case an ETF, the SPY, for diversification and that it tracks the S&P500. With this core holding, I hold a variable value of cash. This cash/stock ratio is traded with a market timing methodology which is quant. based, and incorporates valuations.

The second leg of the methodology involves selling Option premium. As Option contracts are in 100 share lots, to participate in this leg of the strategy, you need a portfolio of a certain size.

Assuming that you do, you sell premium. The Calls, are covered, and the price that you sell the premium, is of course where you want to sell stock. Thus the premium creates a cash-flow while you wait.

Put premium is a little different. You are obviously selling naked Options. The cash you hold, provides the margin required. Again, you sell at a price that you want to buy at.

The tricky part is that in a falling market, where you want to buy stock, and let's say it is a crash type of market that we saw in 2008, IV's will go through the roof. This means that you can't simply close the trade and buy the stock, the exploding IV will create, likely, a loss.

You have to wait to be exercised on expiry. This of course creates a potential problem. The market may bottom while you wait for expiry, and reverse. The choice is: [i] miss out on buying [ii] buy and risk doubling the amount of stock that you buy. Neither is a great choice.

For the less risk averse, simply do not sell naked Puts. Stick with only selling Call premium. With my system, that is actually a very low risk trade.

As you can see, I've only had it tracked for approaching a year. Keep your eye on it, especially if we have another major leg down and watch its performance. The Option premium isn't included, but I track the Option trades on my blog as transparently as possible, and will calculate the additional returns to the portfolio.

jog on
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Old Sep 2, 2012, 6:17pm   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ducati998 View Post

For novice, even intermediate traders, many are loath to seek help. Partly, I'm sure that is due to so many rip-off merchants within this industry, there are however many legitimate and honest ones.
Could you name a few legitimate and honest ones? I can't think of any that have been advertised or discussed on T2W that are.

This information might be of great help to new traders.
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Old Sep 2, 2012, 6:20pm   #20
 
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ducati998 started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Leopard View Post
Could you name a few legitimate and honest ones? I can't think of any that have been advertised or discussed on T2W that are.

This information might be of great help to new traders.
In what style? Stock, Futures, Options? What timeframe, intra-day, Swing, Position, Fundamental/Technical...

There are so many possibilities and combinations, where do you want me to start?

jog on
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