my journal 3

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Old Jan 30, 2012, 9:16pm   #181
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread The new episode is out:
Watch Mob Wives online (TV Show) - download MobWives - on 1Channel | LetMeWatchThis

This is an action-packed reality show.

I'm going to watch it and then try to sleep, because tomorrow, at 8.15 am, I have to give some IT consulting to my friend, who maybe is being cheated on by his wife. We have to figure out how to install a keylogger on his computer, and similar issues.

Just one trade by the systems today, as i mentioned earlier. At any rate, from here on, I am expecting some losses, so I'm really not looking forward to the coming trades. After the first two weeks being so good, I am expecting some impending losses.
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Old Jan 30, 2012, 11:54pm   #182
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread



Still working on this thing... the "combination with replacement" formula...

snap1.jpg

How long more... how long more at the office?

[...]

It can't be just the combination without replacement formula PLUS the "n" value, because that works with 5C2, but not with 5C3 and more than 3. It only works if you pick 2 numbers out of the total. So the complex formula is needed but I just can't figure out how they derive it. And this pisses me off, even though I won't need it for my trading, and I won't need to figure out the formula for sure. This is what pisses me off about the studying of math. I can obviously memorize all the formulas, but I get frustrated when I can't understand how they're derived. Since in some cases I can understand them fully, when I can't, I feel stupid and I feel I haven't completed the task. And I never accepted that I have limits. I've always been taught to not accept my limits and push further and further my understanding and knowledge. I was taught that it's impossible that I have limits, at least mentally. By my father. That's why I can't sleep, in general. Skipping class is ok, skipping work is ok... everything is ok, except being mentally lazy. If there's something I don't understand, I feel the urge to figure it out, often even if I do not need it. But also if there's something I don't know, I need to find out. I can't really watch any movie from start to end because I have to interrupt it and check facts about the movie, the actors, and so on. Several times per movie. If it's on tv, I still get up and go check things on the internet. It's hard to see people who have a favorite movie and don't remember its title, when I check facts about movies I don't like. I immediately consider them idiots (meaning "superficial"), and as a consequence, the majority of people are idiots. Of course this is not just limited to their behaviour with regard to their favorite movie. Like this girlfriend I had, she wrote on her cv she was fluent in french and she got hired to teach french, and she was ok with the fact that she didn't know how to conjugate the most important verbs. That was unacceptable to me. I was shocked when I saw that.

Like this neighbour's child screaming all the time. Do you know there's a method to teach children not to scream all the time? I read about it. You're the mother and you haven't, in 3 years of life of your child? You retarded bitch - you weren't supposed to get pregnant if you're not capable of doing the research to teach your child to not **** everyone off all the time, including his family. This ****ing child can actually talk, but he prefers to cry about every ****ing thing. He can talk, but he still cries like a ****ing six months old child. That's because his mom is a retarded bitch. He's screaming right now.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 7:11am   #183
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread Ok, here we go. Awake and showered, and getting ready to call my friend and install teamviewer and refog on his computer. What a pain in the ass. I am not going to do this more than once a week. I am sure he'll keep asking me for technical assistance forever.

Not more than once a week.

I met him in the army, and we've been friends ever since. I made friends with everyone, without being classist, as my mom taught me. But he has no education and being classist is smart instead. Consequence of not being classist: given that he has no education, ever since we're friends I am his top expert on everything, so I get asked questions endlessly, even though I never ask him anything. Make five friends like that, and you're screwed basically. Because every single one of them feels the right to keep asking you things until things are evened out between the two of you. He even asked me to go on vacation, for free, at my summer house, at which point, I declined. I don't give it to anyone - especially if they ask - so I don't care how poor you are. You can't just say "hey, you have this house, I don't, so please let me go there for free". Being classist is pure self-defense, because you don't put yourself in situations where you're going to be forced to give everything away. We're either communists, or we're all classists, whether we admit it or not.

There he goes. He came up with a new idea: facebook password cracker. Now I have to work on this, too. Fantastic.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 8:34am   #184
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread Ok, finally I got to the office. My friend understood the situation - but each time I have to explain it to him all over again, that I can't deliver what he expects me to deliver.

We settled for two consulting sessions per week, from 8.15 to 8.55sh instead of the two consulting sessions per day that he wanted me to do. A lot less than he expected me to do, and a lot more than most people would do.

I told him "i know you can't sleep at night because of your worry about your wife, but you can't expect me to do the same thing and stop sleeping at night because I have to follow you in this thing".

**** this thing of "giving your life for a friend". Every time I hear someone say to me "I'd give my life for a friend", the next thing they do is ask me to do something for them.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 12:39pm   #185
 
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user-defined functions and one more test with damn combo with rep.

Yamato started this thread I am still trying to figure it out, the damn function used to calculate the combinations with repetition. I failed again:
triangular_number_and_combinations_with_replacement.xlsm

But the nice thing is that this time I learned to quickly create user-defined functions, so it will be useful for the future. I created two of them. One for the triangular number and one for the damn function itself, which for a second I thought I could derive from the sum of all the triangular numbers from 5 to zero.

Pretty soon I'll give up and just be happy with having memorized the damn formula:
Click the image to open in full size.

What I wanted to do is focus on this thing, because I realize it's the foundation of probability and it's a neat little diagram, with the four possibilities, which in the future will help me categorize all probability problems.

Of course if I didn't have the job to worry about and to get up for, I'd sleep better and have more time for thinking clearly. Llike this I am kind of burned out all the time, but I am still somewhat moving forward.

Anyway, for today I learned something, I did some math (finished khan's review exercises), I did some probability, so I am ok.

I even resumed talking to my roommate, without exceeding into clowning. We talked for 15 minutes, and then I went back to working quietly. It would be perfect if we could do it like this every day, or twice a day.

[...]

Ok, one last try with the Italian wikipedia:
Calcolo combinatorio - Wikipedia

Quote:
Combinazioni con ripetizioni [modifica]

Quando l'ordine non Ť importante ma Ť possibile avere componenti ripetute si parla di combinazioni con ripetizione. Il numero di combinazioni con ripetizione di n oggetti di classe k Ť uguale a quello delle combinazioni senza ripetizione di n+k-1 oggetti di classe k ed Ť quindi uguale a:
Click the image to open in full size.. Ad esempio, vi sono Click the image to open in full size. modi di distribuire a 2 bambini distinguibili 4 caramelle indistinguibili, contando anche i casi in cui uno dei bambini non riceve nessuna caramella: 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-0. Equivalentemente, le combinazioni con ripetizioni informano sul numero di possibili n-ple di addendi non negativi la cui somma sia k (considerando diverse n-ple in cui eguali addendi compaiano in ordine differente); nel suddetto esempio, sono mostrate le cinque diverse duple di somma 4. Inoltre, le combinazioni con ripetizioni per n oggetti di classe k rappresentano il numero delle derivate parziali di ordine k calcolabili per una funzione a n variabili.
Ok, understood just a little more. The roommate is back, so I can't focus anymore. I might do some statistics now.

[...]

Yeah, he turned quiet again. I am doing it:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Transformations to Achieve Linearity

But before moving on to this, i found an interesting paradox or fact that I want to discuss because it's so counter-intuitive that it is worth mentioning.

If you have a coin, you have 50% of tossing a head. Now, instinctively, you'd say that if you toss it twice, you will then have a 100% chance of getting a head. That is close to the truth, with the law of large numbers, and if you toss it one million times.

But, interestingly, your chance of getting at least a head is only 1 - 0.5^2 = 0.75. In the same way you'd say that if your chance is 1%, by doing something 100 times, it will be 100%. And instead it turns out to be 1 - 0.99^100 = 63%.

That really strikes me as odd, but if you look at the tree diagram of coins, you see that it's the case:

snap1.jpg

You see? You toss the coin twice, but your chance is not 100% of getting at least one head. As you increase the number of tosses, the probability of getting at least one head increases (as a whole, not the individual ones), but it never goes to 100%.

Probability is a counter-intuitive field. Each time I have to do these examples over and over again, because by default I go back to the old thinking, that is wrong.

This is very related to trading, because let's say you're making a trade that you say is... 99% sure. You might make two opposite mistakes.

The first one is thinking that, as long as each time you make a 99% sure trade, you're ok. Indeed, after by making 100 such trades, as I said before you have a 63% chance of incurring one loss, so if you risk everything each time, then you'll blow out the account, with a probability of 63%, and a trader trades much more than that. Each time you have a feeling of a pretty much sure trade, and yet, by making many of them, your risk of failing once goes up each time. The same applies with other tiny risks we take each day, such as crossing the street, going out at night, and similar things. Each time you go out your chance of not being mugged goes down, exponentially (with a base a tiny bit lower than one).

The other potential mistake is to think that your probability is bigger than it is.

Anyway, it's interesting to think that if you go out at night and the risk of getting mugged is 0.01%, so your chance of not being mugged is 99.99%, which is 0.9999, then by going out every night for 10 years, your change becomes roughly 0.9999^3650=70%

I've done the stat trek material until minute 4.30 of the video, at the start of Flowchart.

This digression from... regression is anything but idle talk. I am in fact digesting the math I've covered in the past 4 months. I'd need a lot more digesting than this, but, since the final objective is math applied to trading systems, I am going at an acceptable speed. Of course I am not going to be teaching math after this. I will be happy if I can come out of this effort with the same knowledge of math as a good high-school student.

I was a bad high-school student, and I was particularly bad at... everything, and they made me stay back twice. I skipped months of classes. I used to go to the park and similar, or to watch movies. And I didn't do any homework. But Italian school will drive anyone intelligent crazy, because it's all about memorization and kissing up. I would have been better off without ever setting foot in a classroom. I would have learned much more from home schooling, but my parents didn't think of it. Actually the problem was precisely that my father did homeschool me, by giving me extra homework, because he said I wasn't getting enough at school - that's when the sadistic mother****er really screwed my academic future, because I got fed up with everything related to school and homework. Not only did I get to go to school and do that homework, but I got extra homework at home, and never once did he tell me "good job". Real ****ed up asshole I had for a father, and stupid mother who didn't have the strength and intelligence to stop him. What a ****ing bunch of idiots I had as parents. It really sucks.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 5:45pm   #186
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread Ok, I am back home. I finished the work on stat trek and got to this lesson:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Residuals, Outliers, and Influential Points

I will probably continue tomorrow because i need to digest this stuff. I am now 8 days/lessons away from this lesson:
AP Statistics Tutorial: Probability

which will finally reconnect me to probability. So it will be a little easier, and connected to reality and to what I've done recently.

Now I'll focus on the "combination with repetition" formula, for a change.

Jesus! Here's another one who came across mathsisfun and found their explanation of that formula to not be clear:
Yahoo! Canada Answers - How do combinations with repetition work?
Quote:
How do combinations with repetition work?

I need to learn about combinations and permutations. I get all both permutation variation (with repetition and without), I also get combinations without repetition. With repetition however is proving to be much more difficult. I used Combinations and Permutations to help me with the first three but the explanation there for the last one makes no sense to me. I tried to find another site to help me but they made even less sense.
The same exact experience I've had. And I also don't understand the explanation given but it is better than nothing.

I hope i'll have the strength to focus on this for the next few days.

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Old Jan 31, 2012, 6:34pm   #187
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread Good link, with tons of categorized calculators:
Calculator Soup - Online Calculator
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 7:46pm   #188
 
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still trying...

Yamato started this thread I haven't given up on combos and perms. Latest summary of the situation:
combos_and_perms.xls

In the meanwhile I ****ed up and went long on NG, a bit too early. I might lose all discretionary profit made until here. Just as expected. I had said I had run out of lucky trades.

[...]

I also doubled up when I noticed I was losing. Yeah, all the same old mistakes. I should just stay away from the computer. I knew this, too. It just keeps happening. Win 1, win 1, win 1, win 1, win 1, lose 5 or more (even the entire account).

I am done with math for the rest of the day. I ended up doing some of their kindergarten exercises, because they are awesome and there's no other exercises around:
Question

Now i'll start praying to make my trade go my way. It's down 600 now.

It either goes my way, break-even, or I can't close it. It's all psychological. That's why I can't trade discretionary.

Here's some good music, to encourage NG to rise:



Damn. It's putting it to sleep, that last part of the music. I am going to stop it and see how NG behaves. Of course I'll try to play other music to see what gets the best reaction.

Damn, I know what it is. It's the screaming child. We need to call the exorcist for the screaming child, or NG won't rise.

You know, I probably placed that damn trade because the child was frustrating me. Each time I hear that prick, I feel the urge to speed up my profit, in order to escape these neighbours. I think I will sacrifice the neighbours to NG, to see if it rises.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 8:45pm   #189
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread Interesting website:
ThatsMyFace - Custom Action Figures, Dolls & Masks from your Photos

Child is still screaming like he's possessed. NG still falling like it's possessed. I think it just hit bottom now, at -9%.

Nope, still falling. Child still screaming, too.

I am now losing 1500 dollars.

[...]

Instead of going to bed peacefully, with one NQ trade decided by the system, I am going to bed with a 1500 dollars ongoing loss, decided by me. I am sad. I did it. I can't blame anyone, except my personal personality, which still escapes me. I don't think I wanted to lose 1500 dollars. I was convinced I'd make 400 dollars. Then everything happened by itself.

I am staying long overnight, as there's high hopes for a recovery. One of the systems (a very good one) says so. I'll exit tomorrow morning. It might take my profit target during the night. Hopefully it will.

In that case, I will have missed only one automated trade, hopefully not a profitable one.
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Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.

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Old Jan 31, 2012, 9:57pm   #190
 
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Re: my journal 3

Yamato started this thread Hey, when I'll learn, I'll learn. I have similar problems to trading in my life.

1) In trading, I place trades I know will hurt my account in the long run.
2) In sleeping, in the morning i plan to sleep well the next night, and then, when the night comes, I go to sleep late
3) when eating, I plan not to eat, and then I eat

I've got some areas where I can't resist my urges, and do something that I know will hurt me. Deep inside, I knew that placing a trade wasn't a good idea. I've kept writing it. And yet I placed that one last trade, and now I am regretting it. And probably this wasn't the last discretionary trade I placed.

Probably tomorrow I'll pull it off and get out of it with no losses. In any case, it won't kill the account, but I still won't live to learn from it. Just like I never solved my sleeping problem, and I never was able to not eat if I am sitting at the table with food in front of me, or had beer in the refrigerator. I drink it immediately. And if I have cigarettes, I smoke them... I am like this.
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