A Geek's Lucky Trading Journal

Introduction

Evening T2W! Since we're half way through the year, I thought I'd post my progress and future trades to add some accountability to my actions. I've, quite honestly, been tremendously lucky in the recent market based on my assumption that forces beyond my control are keeping things fairly flat. To this end, I've tried repeatedly scalping the market using leveraged ETFs with a fair bit of success. I wanted to start posting because it seems as though the market (I'm speaking generically of the US S&P, even though I trade the triple leveraged small cap ETF--URTY.)

Strategy

Like I mentioned above, I've been trying to flip my ETF of choice repeatedly for profit. I started trading last year and my original strategy was to buy on low opening trading days and exit by close. I haven't been able to execute this well. On days where I'm down at close I roll my losses over and hope for recovery. This has forced me to hold positions in my leveraged ETF far longer than I'm comfortable with, but it has also gotten me used to executing not only day trades, but also longer swing trades. They do sometimes bite me, but I've been lucky enough (based on my assumption of a flat market) to recover eventually.

Rules

I have devised some new rules which I hope to play by:

1. Aim for 5% per month and do not get greedy.
2. Trade with the trend only when it is long--avoid shorting.
3. Assume the going theory is an upward trend toward recovery and hold to a swing position if up for the day or larger uptrends if recovering ground.

I know these are not very specific, but they will hopefully mend well with my current system that prays on the sideways market. I'm cautious that up upward market would freeze me from wanting to enter, fearing immediate trend reversal.

Current Log

Here is my exported log as it currently stands. I had traded the short triple leveraged small cap SRTY last year with success, I just don't want to be on the wrong end of that trend this year--so I've depended completely on URTY as my trading mechanism.

Current log.

Future moves

You may notice that the last few months I've prayed on URTY bouncing in between low and high 90s. I'm comfortable doing so, for the time being, because I do not need to hit the highs and lows on the nose (as you'll certainly notice), I let the fact that it's a leveraged fund make that up for me.

Risk

This is the only area I know I'm not monitoring properly. Can someone tell me where I stand as far as risk? I know what I'm doing is probably very risky, but it's worked without a single losing trade. So how can I maintain the same level of performance while also lowering the foreseen risk?

Thanks for any input T2W might have! Happy trading!

Given the European news and premarket activity I thought IWM would end up down 2% or so, thus I set my initial URTY buy for 700 @91. However, I broke my rule #1 and got impatient and greedy, entering @93 for 688 shares. General market volume and movement looked positive around 10 EST, so I thought I was lucky getting in when I did. Move still might prove to be beneficial because the day low of 91.00 probably would have prevented my order of the same price from being executed.

Log with today's (7/11/11) buy and likely multiple day hold.

My hope was that more debt ceiling news, earnings, and Euro debt assistance would float things back up. I hope this holds true tomorrow--if not this might be another position I hold for a month. *sigh* Live and learn. The fact that the downward movement wasn't too far from my entry point gives me some hope.

-Geek

Good luck, geek! I'll be reading your progress!

Looks like fears in Europe are going to accelerate, not ease today. As I suggested yesterday, this will now turn into a holding position until things either improve or get really bad.

I'm back in positive territory and still holding. I might take my money off the table for a small gain early next week due to an increase in volatility that will certainly hit the markets later in the week. I was hoping this would lead to a pop in the market, but I'm starting to second guess that assumption.

Does anyone know where I could get public records of recent trades made by members of congress? I'd like to know how much they have on the table considering the amount of influence the debt ceiling has on the current markets.

I just wanted to say publicly that it was a HUGE mistake not to take my money off the table when I was in positive territory. I should NOT have assumed that a deal would be brokered in an orderly fashion. I still am more confident than unconfident that the ceiling will be raised before the deadline, however, I am not quite sure whether our credit rating will take a plunge along with the markets regardless of any action by congress.

I am regretfully still long and holding. My Trading Log has the current price of the equity I'm holding--URTY. At the moment, I am sitting at a $10,000 loss for this transaction--which removes half the gains I've worked so hard for over the course of the year to date. I predict bad things for Monday and Tuesday, and I just may stay in bed.

geek said:

I predict bad things for Monday and Tuesday, and I just may stay in bed.

Click to expand...

Best of luck mate :|

I sincerely hope it turns round

Well, I was right about Monday and Tuesday. I DID NOT think what happened today was possible. If there isn't an immediate/significant recovery tomorrow I think I'm screwed. I'm down $23,000 for this trade which brings me to -$2,000 for the year.

I think this draw down is overly aggressive, so I'm still unconvinced we will stay in this territory. Given that, I'm holding.

You probably hear this a lot--but I worked my ass off for the cash I've lost the last 2 weeks.

Hello

I sincerely hope it turns round .so Good luck, geek! I'll be reading your progress! i am very appreciate to them....