isa's short term trading journal

This is a discussion on isa's short term trading journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by isatrader Iíve been manually typing into Excel the spread betting prices from the 4 hour chart of ...

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Old Jan 19, 2011, 9:28pm   #65
 
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Re: Support and Resistance

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Iíve been manually typing into Excel the spread betting prices from the 4 hour chart of the US SP 500 Mar 11 Spread for the last few months. The purpose of this is so I can set stop losses and price targets using the spread betting companies actual prices, so that Iím not stopped out by slight variations between the futures price and the spread betting companies price.

From this Iíve been able to produce a graph which is simply the distance from the 200 bar simple moving average. I like to use this on my daily stock charts using the 200 day SMA as the baseline, as it is very useful at identifying areas of support and resistance. So I thought it would be interesting to see if it was as effective on a different time frame.

What it shows is that since the current bull move started at the beginning of December that price has met resistance between 3 to 3.8% above the 200 bar SMA and support has been around the 2% area above the 200 bar SMA. It will be interesting to see how this develops as I continue to put new prices in, but I think it shows that a strong break below 2% level will be a signal to go short.

Price is currently at 3.43% above the 200 bar SMA and so a short term top is likely soon maybe?
Relative Support and Resistance chart update. The 8pm close was the lowest itís been since the 2nd December on a relative basis to the 200 bar moving average.

Iíve included the 200 bar moving average on the chart at 0%, so you can see the relationship with price better.
Attached Thumbnails
rrelative-support-resistance2.png  
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Old Jan 20, 2011, 1:36am   #66
 
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S&P 500 Average Performance Since 1950

isatrader started this thread I wrote a post a while ago about the S&P 500 average performance since 1950 in my other journal. Iíve updated the data now to include all the years from January 1950 to December 2010 and have attached the updated chart below.

It shows that on average annual performance of the S&P 500 is 8.41% and the strongest times to be in the market is the first 86 trading days Ė when the market is up on average 4%; and the 208th trading day until the end of the year Ė when the market is up on average 4.18%. So for example the 86th trading day last year was the 6th May and the 208th day was on the 28th October.

So to break it down clearly:

S&P 500 Index Ė 1950 to 2010
Average Annual performance: +8.41%

First 86 Trading Days: +4%
87th to 207th Trading Days: +0.29%
208th Trading Day to Year End: 4.18%

So, the question Iím asking myself is, would it better to only trade Stocks from the 208th day through the year end until the 86th trading the next year, and then invest somewhere else from May until the end of October? Maybe I should just go to cash during the summer and have a break from trading to recharge. Definitely need to back test this data on a year by year basis to see the results though.
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sp500-seasonal-1950-2010.png  
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Old Jan 20, 2011, 2:28am   #67
 
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SP 500 Short Exit Ė Mar 11 Spread

isatrader started this thread My open position in the US SP 500 Mar 11 Spread was stopped out at breakeven. Did I jump the gun on moving my stop back to breakeven? Iím not sure Ė it was 6 points in profit, and I think a 10 point move is a reasonable target in the S&P 500, so I think I should move my stop to breakeven once it gets past 5 points, so I donít get caught by a whipsaw in price action and end up with a winner turning into a loser. Anyway I am a bit disappointed, as I still havenít had a winning trade this month yet. But Iím determined not to snatch small profits in this. 10pt+ moves is the aim.

Closing trade

Entry: 14/1/11
Price: 1281.8

Exit: 20/1/11
Price: 1281.8

Points: 0

Trade Grade: C-
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_1hr_20-1-11_exit.png  
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Old Jan 20, 2011, 6:00am   #68
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re: isa's short term trading journal

Those lunchtime American indices can be a problem, an hour before the open. I do USTech bcause it's numerically larger than the SP, around 2330. Before I folded for the day I opened a short, put a 10 point stop and 10 point limit on it. The trouble is that I did not get the full down move but, at least, it was something. The spread, out of hours was 3 points but I thought it worth the risk.
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Old Jan 20, 2011, 10:24am   #69
 
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re: isa's short term trading journal

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Those lunchtime American indices can be a problem, an hour before the open. I do USTech bcause it's numerically larger than the SP, around 2330. Before I folded for the day I opened a short, put a 10 point stop and 10 point limit on it. The trouble is that I did not get the full down move but, at least, it was something. The spread, out of hours was 3 points but I thought it worth the risk.
Iíd like to be able to trade the US Tech 100, but the spread on the quarterly contracts is 4 points, whereas the US SP 500 spread on the quarterly contracts is only 0.6 to 0.8 points. So I stick with the US SP 500 as percentage wise the spread on the US Tech Mar 11 is 1.74% and on the US SP 500 itís only 0.63%, so the US Tech would only be good for a longer term position for me.
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Old Jan 20, 2011, 10:57am   #70
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re: isa's short term trading journal

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I’d like to be able to trade the US Tech 100, but the spread on the quarterly contracts is 4 points, whereas the US SP 500 spread on the quarterly contracts is only 0.6 to 0.8 points. So I stick with the US SP 500 as percentage wise the spread on the US Tech Mar 11 is 1.74% and on the US SP 500 it’s only 0.63%, so the US Tech would only be good for a longer term position for me.
You are with a futures broker, then? I am with Fins, an SB. I do a rolling bet. Before hours the spread is 3. Not sure what it is during hours. I'll let you know.

You are right. Fins March 11 is 4 points, too.
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Old Jan 20, 2011, 11:04am   #71
 
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re: isa's short term trading journal

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You are with a futures broker, then? I am with Fins, an SB. I do a rolling bet. Before hours the spread is 3. Not sure what it is during hours. I'll let you know.

You are right. Fins March 11 is 4 points, too.
Iím with Fins as well.
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Old Jan 20, 2011, 11:08am   #72
 
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re: isa's short term trading journal

isatrader started this thread Just put on a new trade. A scalp attempt, so tight stop loss.

Trade

Long – US SP 500 Rolling Spread

Entry Price: 1283.1

Stop: 1281.7
Target: 1287.1

Account Risk: 0.03%
Potential Account Profit: 0.10%
Risk Ratio: 2.86
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