isa's short term trading journal

This is a discussion on isa's short term trading journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by isatrader Thanks for the feedback pingvin123. It’s one of the major reasons why I post the trades ...

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Old Jan 16, 2011, 3:17am   #25
Joined Mar 2010
re: isa's short term trading journal

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Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
Thanks for the feedback pingvin123. It’s one of the major reasons why I post the trades in my journal. As I want to learn to be better and am interested to see other traders analysis and how they would have traded it. On question 4 you asked why I didn’t get out at breakeven. The reason for this was that the stock opened below breakeven on 12th Jan. The chart doesn’t show the gaps, but this is a problem with trading stocks overnight as they can open anywhere, and unfortunately I had to go to work so couldn’t monitor it intraday. So when I got home and checked it was still below breakeven, so I chose to stick with my initial stop and let it play out. With regards to the indicators, they were actually right on this one. I just ignored them unfortunately. MACD didn’t get above 0 and turned down and RSI broke below the trendline and couldn’t get back above it so it signaled to sell. I agree with your analysis it was just less clear at the right edge of the chart when the price was moving and I missed it on this one.

I really appreciate the comments. Thanks for taking the time to do it and I hope you’ll analyze some more of my trades in the future as it’s really helpful and what forums like this should be about.
I think you should have been out by 1000-1015. Keep a good eye on the price action, as you can see from that diagonal line pinguin drew. If the price is forming patterns like that it will suggest theres a very good chance of it breaking that line. If it breaks that line then there's a likelihood of it testing the lows, as there arent many other pivot points. I trade currencies mainly and i see it alot, double bottoms. If price makes a low and bounces strong don't buy it. It's not what you want to see. It's called a short squeeze, which just means the stock is changing hands from retail to institutional. Make sure you dont buy too close to resistence and sell too close to support. You can always keep your long or short view on the stock, but there's a good chance that you will be able to buy the stock for a cheaper price, or sell at a higher price.

How i see price action.

Price action makes lows and bounces sharply - theres a good chance of it making lower lows. Retail shorts get squeezed out. Institutional traders now short, as they get stopped out, and others buy.

Price action makes lows and bounces a small amount - Watch the price action, if the price stays above the lows for a long enough time frame theres a good chance of a retest of the lows and potential buying opportunity. Perfect on highly liquidity low volatile days.
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Old Jan 16, 2011, 3:24am   #26
 
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re: isa's short term trading journal

isatrader started this thread
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Originally Posted by brettus View Post
I think you should have been out by 1000-1015. Keep a good eye on the price action, as you can see from that diagonal line pinguin drew. If the price is forming patterns like that it will suggest theres a very good chance of it breaking that line. If it breaks that line then there's a likelihood of it testing the lows, as there arent many other pivot points. I trade currencies mainly and i see it alot, double bottoms. If price makes a low and bounces strong don't buy it. It's not what you want to see. It's called a short squeeze, which just means the stock is changing hands from retail to institutional. Make sure you dont buy too close to resistence and sell too close to support. You can always keep your long or short view on the stock, but there's a good chance that you will be able to buy the stock for a cheaper price, or sell at a higher price.

How i see price action.

Price action makes lows and bounces sharply - theres a good chance of it making lower lows. Retail shorts get squeezed out. Institutional traders now short, as they get stopped out, and others buy.

Price action makes lows and bounces a small amount - Watch the price action, if the price stays above the lows for a long enough time frame theres a good chance of a retest of the lows and potential buying opportunity. Perfect on highly liquidity low volatile days.
Thanks brettus. I really appreciate all the feedback. I will try my best to post all my trades and hopefully will improve with some time and experience.
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Old Jan 16, 2011, 3:37am   #27
Joined Mar 2010
re: isa's short term trading journal

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Thanks brettus. I really appreciate all the feedback. I will try my best to post all my trades and hopefully will improve with some time and experience.
The annoying thing about trading is that if you dont actively participate, you can never learn to trade and make money. Why is that we need to trade for months and years before we can learn from our mistakes? You learn that when you were fearful, you should have been greedy and fearful when you were greedy.

That's all it takes really, time, experience and screen time and don't do your ******** in that time!
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Old Jan 16, 2011, 10:45am   #28
Joined Sep 2009
Re: Money Management

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However if I go short the risk is much higher on individual shares as a bid or some other news could send it through the roof. So my aim is to only go short on the SP 500 spread as the probability of that going up 100% or more instantly is very low, but could still happen someday. A Flash spike caused by the trading machines maybe or something no one’s thought of yet.
I must admit i've decided my short strategy on stocks is to always use a guaranteed stop, as although underlying market prices are extremely unlikely to gap several 100%, spread betting prices can. I've found many historical examples of gaps of 500+%...
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Old Jan 16, 2011, 10:52am   #29
Joined Nov 2001
re: isa's short term trading journal

You are frightening me! I've been trading for decades and that has not happened to me. I'm not saying that you are wrong and it is, certainly, something that I must look into. It only needs to happen once, of course!
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Old Jan 16, 2011, 10:54am   #30
 
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Re: SP 500 Short Entry – Mar 11 Spread

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I’ve gone Short the SP 500 Mar 11 Spread

Entry Price: 1264.80
Stop: 1273.20
Target: 1225.00

Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.74
You asked to analyze more charts/trades that you took, here is one more, the first chart that you posted I think... I can see the reason (I think) why you went short there, it is a resistance zone (at the top of the yellow arrow). Or maybe that was not the reason, it doesn't matter, I would like to point you to the important pin bars on this chart (from left to right):

Click the image to open in full size.

- First reddish arrow pointing to the pin bars, price got rejected at 1250, you enter those a few pips above the pin, SL being a few pips below the pin. Would it work out? Yes on all 3 pins.

- Two bluish arrows pointing to the pins, price bounced from EMA, you can enter straight at EMA touch or wait for the pin to break. Would it work out? Yes on all 5 pins.

- Second red arrow pointing to the pin on the top, that one would work nicely as well, depends how you want to play it it you would move SL on the highs of 2 pins behind the price or expect retrace to probably go till your entry + a few pips in minus. I would close it probably and reenter on the highs of retracement after the yelow arrow.

- Yellow arrow pointing to the pin, that one would work as well if you would place position to BE or take TP at the bottom of the previous high. Do you see where the price retraced? Right till there!

- Last red arrow pointing to the pin at pivot zone 1260 (look at the left, see how the price stalled there, and now price got rejected from this zone). If I would still have short position open from the second red arrow or from the highs after yellow, this is where I would definitely close the positions and went long. Again depends how you want to play it, but most probably my TP would be previous bar lows (although the move up was very forceful, long bars, so I might have waited a bit as well). I would not dare to go short there, Price action does not support short trade at this time.

That's all from me, I hope you will find my input helpful. Take care!
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Old Jan 16, 2011, 1:43pm   #31
Joined Sep 2009
re: isa's short term trading journal

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Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
You are frightening me! I've been trading for decades and that has not happened to me. I'm not saying that you are wrong and it is, certainly, something that I must look into. It only needs to happen once, of course!
I must admit I was a bit surprised, but I was doing some investigating last night on my IG account browsing some random charts and found several (4 or 5) stocks with huge spikes, unsurprisingly most were around Oct/Sep 2008. For example try looking at Dolby Laboratories Sep 4 2008. Now these must be down to the way the SB company calculates "their price", and I don't know how valid they are and whether if you challenged them they would say they were errors...? I am going to email IG to query. But it does concern me if I was going short...
My CityIndex chart of Dolby Labs does not show such a spike for example. So to what degree could IG say, well that's "our price" tough...?
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Old Jan 16, 2011, 2:01pm   #32
Joined Mar 2010
re: isa's short term trading journal

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Originally Posted by leonarda View Post
I must admit I was a bit surprised, but I was doing some investigating last night on my IG account browsing some random charts and found several (4 or 5) stocks with huge spikes, unsurprisingly most were around Oct/Sep 2008. For example try looking at Dolby Laboratories Sep 4 2008. Now these must be down to the way the SB company calculates "their price", and I don't know how valid they are and whether if you challenged them they would say they were errors...? I am going to email IG to query. But it does concern me if I was going short...
My CityIndex chart of Dolby Labs does not show such a spike for example. So to what degree could IG say, well that's "our price" tough...?
Are these stock splits?
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