Spreadbetting Journal Ė Trend Strategy

This is a discussion on Spreadbetting Journal Ė Trend Strategy within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Based on the overnight price movement of GBP/USD, the 11 Day EMA has moved to 1.5826 and the Chandelier exit ...

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Old Oct 29, 2010, 12:22pm   #11
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone

isatrader started this thread Based on the overnight price movement of GBP/USD, the 11 Day EMA has moved to 1.5826 and the Chandelier exit to 1.5738, so that is now my value zone where I will look for an entry if the price action looks promising after the GDP data this afternoon.
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Old Oct 29, 2010, 2:57pm   #12
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone

isatrader started this thread Doesnít look like Iím going to get an entry point today. As the US GDP data was good and Pound is rallying now. It got close though, was only 37pts from my value zone earlier, but I will get another chance to get in next week I think.
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Old Oct 29, 2010, 9:29pm   #13
 
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Re: S&P 500 Long Entry Scale in

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
Iíve opened another very small position on the S&P 500 Dec 10 Spread which brings my position risk up to 0.7%.

Entry Price: 1178.4
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 0.6pts

Stop: 1147
Limit: 1220

Account Risk: 0.39%
Potential Account Profit: 0.52%
Risk Ratio: 1.32

The risk ratio is very small at the moment, but Iím using a safezone stoploss so I will be moving that up at the close today, which will start to bring the risk ratio up. The buy signal is still on, as shown in the attached chart and I think it has a bit room to run yet. Iíve set my limit order near the previous high, but I might switch to a chandelier stoploss to track the move if it gains some momentum over the coming days.
I decided to close the scale in position I placed in the S&P 500 yesterday as the market looks like it could be stalling today. So I closed for a very small profit with the aim of getting back in early next week at better value.

I have also tightened up my stop loss on my previous S&P 500 position so that it will close at breakeven if the market sells off. So risk is now zero on this trade.

Closing trade
Entry Price: 1178.4
Exit Price: 1181.30
Qty: 0.5 per point
Points: 2.9
P/L: £1.45

It looks like Iím going to finish about 1% up for the week. But I will post my trading spreadsheet over the weekend and review the open trades for next week, what I need to watch out for and my plan for getting into GBP/USD on a pullback to value.
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_exit_29-10-10.png  
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Old Oct 30, 2010, 6:38pm   #14
 
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Trading Review Ė October

isatrader started this thread Attached is a screen shot of my trading spreadsheet, which I use to list my trades, calculate risk and potential profits. I also like to grade my trades based on how much of the daily Keltner Channel I manage to capture. I use the following grades:

A+ 40% and above
A 30-40%
B 20-30%
C 10-20%
C- 0-10%
D Below 0%
E Below -10%
F Below -20%
G Below -30%

It turned out to be a good week for my new account. All trades are currently in profit, giving me a 1.02% gain for the account. Iíve tightened up my stop losses on Randgold Resources and moved the S&P 500 stop to breakeven. So my risk is now back down to 0.39%.

I intend to re-balance my risk at month end each month. So I have calculated the new account size and adjusted the maximum sizes Iím allowed to trade in November.

November Account Start: £4065.49
Maximum Account Risk (6%): £243.93
Maximum Single Trade Risk (2%): £81.31

Iíll be watching the market closely this week as is going to be a very important week with the mid-term elections Tuesday, FED announcement Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. Think there could be a good chance that traders sell the news, so hence the tightening of my stoplosses. But it could go either way so will be watching with interest for any trading opportunities.
Attached Thumbnails
trades_spreadsheet_29-10-10.png  
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Old Nov 1, 2010, 2:56pm   #15
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone

isatrader started this thread GBP/USD is getting closer to my entry zone. The weekend minor moves and todays action so far have brought up the 11 Day EMA to 1.5930. So my new target entry zone is between 1.5930 and the 1.5736 chandelier stop loss.

This is almost a 200 points zone, so Iíll be looking to get in at the lower end of the scale to keep my risk below 2%. So now Iíll be watching the intra-day charts to look for good entry point if it pulls back to value.
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd_signal_1-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 1, 2010, 11:52pm   #16
 
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S&P 500 Long Exit

isatrader started this thread I exited my first position in the S&P 500 tonight on the pullback to value on the 4 hour chart after hours.

Closing trade
Entry Price: 1171.9
Exit Price: 1182.10
Qty: 0.5 per point
Points: 10.2
P/L: £5.10

Trade Grade: C

A very minor profit, but the trade got a grade C, so Iím fairly pleased as a C grade or better is what I aim for. The aim with this trade was to build the position size on the pullbacks to value, but today's pullback to near the 100 Bar EMA on the 4 hour chart looked stronger than the previous ones, so I was a bit more uncertain about the position; and with the election tomorrow and data this week Iíve decided to step aside for the moment. But will probably be back in later in the week once I have a bit more clarity from the data.
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_exit_1-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 2, 2010, 2:29am   #17
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone update

isatrader started this thread Indecisive day for the GBP/USD. Traded in a fairly small range and only made it about half way towards my target entry point. But signal is still on and most of the false signals failed within a few days, so this one looks good so far.

New target entry zone
11 Day EMA: 1.5948
50 Day EMA: 1.5805
Chandelier Exit: 1.5746

The 14 Day ATR is 111pts, so there could be a chance it reaches my target zone today if it pulls back.
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd_signal2_1-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 2, 2010, 2:38am   #18
 
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AUD/USD Signal On

isatrader started this thread I have another signal on now to watch for an entry point, as the AUD/USD came on tonight. Itís very close to the value zone but one of the indicator criteria isnít there yet as the Force Index 10 day summation line is still below the 22 day moving average. My discretionary rules to help validate the signal are that I donít go long until thereís a positive volume crossover on force index, so this is one to watch at the moment Ė even though itís tempting. But I think that parity with the dollar is a big headwind still and Iíd want to see a close above that before considering going long as well as my signal confirmation.
Attached Thumbnails
audusd_signal_1-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 2, 2010, 2:54pm   #19
 
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Vedanta Entry

isatrader started this thread Iíve opened a position on the Vedanta Dec 10 Spread as it looks to me like a swing bottom is forming.

Entry Price: 2075.98
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 15.4pts

Stop: 2029
Limit: 2600

Account Risk: 0.58%
Potential Account Profit: 6.44%
Risk Ratio: 11.15

I hold this in my ISA portfolio as a medium term holding and has dropped around 10% from a recent high. So Iím hoping it will be a good swing trade. Iíve got a tight stop, so the risk is low. But could get stopped out quickly on this one if it breaks the recent low.
Attached Thumbnails
vedanta_entry_4hr_2-11-10.png   vedanta_entry_5min_2-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 3, 2010, 1:41am   #20
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone update

isatrader started this thread GBP/USD had a fairly good try at moving down early in the day and got just inside my trading zone, but it wasnít far enough for me as I was looking for a price nearer the 50 Day EMA, so no entry today. However, the EMAs are moving higher, so the new buy zone for me is now:

New target entry zone
11 Day EMA: 1.5961
50 Day EMA: 1.5907
Chandelier Exit: 1.5753

The 50 Day EMA is almost in reach of the ATR range now, so I could get an entry on this tomorrow (Wednesday).
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd_signal_2-11-10.png  
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