Spreadbetting Journal Ė Trend Strategy

This is a discussion on Spreadbetting Journal Ė Trend Strategy within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I exited my first position in the S&P 500 tonight on the pullback to value on the 4 hour chart ...

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Old Nov 1, 2010, 10:52pm   #16
 
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S&P 500 Long Exit

isatrader started this thread I exited my first position in the S&P 500 tonight on the pullback to value on the 4 hour chart after hours.

Closing trade
Entry Price: 1171.9
Exit Price: 1182.10
Qty: 0.5 per point
Points: 10.2
P/L: £5.10

Trade Grade: C

A very minor profit, but the trade got a grade C, so Iím fairly pleased as a C grade or better is what I aim for. The aim with this trade was to build the position size on the pullbacks to value, but today's pullback to near the 100 Bar EMA on the 4 hour chart looked stronger than the previous ones, so I was a bit more uncertain about the position; and with the election tomorrow and data this week Iíve decided to step aside for the moment. But will probably be back in later in the week once I have a bit more clarity from the data.
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_exit_1-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 2, 2010, 1:29am   #17
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone update

isatrader started this thread Indecisive day for the GBP/USD. Traded in a fairly small range and only made it about half way towards my target entry point. But signal is still on and most of the false signals failed within a few days, so this one looks good so far.

New target entry zone
11 Day EMA: 1.5948
50 Day EMA: 1.5805
Chandelier Exit: 1.5746

The 14 Day ATR is 111pts, so there could be a chance it reaches my target zone today if it pulls back.
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd_signal2_1-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 2, 2010, 1:38am   #18
 
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AUD/USD Signal On

isatrader started this thread I have another signal on now to watch for an entry point, as the AUD/USD came on tonight. Itís very close to the value zone but one of the indicator criteria isnít there yet as the Force Index 10 day summation line is still below the 22 day moving average. My discretionary rules to help validate the signal are that I donít go long until thereís a positive volume crossover on force index, so this is one to watch at the moment Ė even though itís tempting. But I think that parity with the dollar is a big headwind still and Iíd want to see a close above that before considering going long as well as my signal confirmation.
Attached Thumbnails
audusd_signal_1-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 2, 2010, 1:54pm   #19
 
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Vedanta Entry

isatrader started this thread Iíve opened a position on the Vedanta Dec 10 Spread as it looks to me like a swing bottom is forming.

Entry Price: 2075.98
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 15.4pts

Stop: 2029
Limit: 2600

Account Risk: 0.58%
Potential Account Profit: 6.44%
Risk Ratio: 11.15

I hold this in my ISA portfolio as a medium term holding and has dropped around 10% from a recent high. So Iím hoping it will be a good swing trade. Iíve got a tight stop, so the risk is low. But could get stopped out quickly on this one if it breaks the recent low.
Attached Thumbnails
vedanta_entry_4hr_2-11-10.png   vedanta_entry_5min_2-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 3, 2010, 12:41am   #20
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone update

isatrader started this thread GBP/USD had a fairly good try at moving down early in the day and got just inside my trading zone, but it wasnít far enough for me as I was looking for a price nearer the 50 Day EMA, so no entry today. However, the EMAs are moving higher, so the new buy zone for me is now:

New target entry zone
11 Day EMA: 1.5961
50 Day EMA: 1.5907
Chandelier Exit: 1.5753

The 50 Day EMA is almost in reach of the ATR range now, so I could get an entry on this tomorrow (Wednesday).
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd_signal_2-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 3, 2010, 12:48am   #21
 
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Re: AUD/USD Signal On

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
I have another signal on now to watch for an entry point, as the AUD/USD came on tonight. Itís very close to the value zone but one of the indicator criteria isnít there yet as the Force Index 10 day summation line is still below the 22 day moving average. My discretionary rules to help validate the signal are that I donít go long until thereís a positive volume crossover on force index, so this is one to watch at the moment Ė even though itís tempting. But I think that parity with the dollar is a big headwind still and Iíd want to see a close above that before considering going long as well as my signal confirmation.
I got the signal confirmation from the force index volume crossover today as the AUD/USD moved up strongly to parity, but it has lingered there all day. So Iím still not willing to go long yet, as I want a decent close above parity and then a retest back to value for confirmation of the move.
Attached Thumbnails
audusd_signal_2-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 3, 2010, 1:07am   #22
 
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EUR/USD Signal On

isatrader started this thread EUR/USD signal also is on now from todayís close. My discretionary indicators confirm it for me. However, it still has an important resistance to overcome before I will look to buy it. For me to go long I need it to make and new high and manage to close above the previous closing high of 1.4079 to show that the bull run is continuing.

This means that I have 3 possible forex trades now in GBP/USD, EUR/USD and AUD/USD; although the GBP/USD is looking most likely to get an entry point this week. I would like to trade all three if they position right, but I think I need to limit myself to a max of 2 currency trades at a time while my account is still so small, especially ones that are all long against the same currency. As I think it would add too much risk as any positive move in dollar would affect them all. Also, another good reason would be that Iím new to forex trading. Iíve always traded stocks and equity markets, so I want to take small steps and keep my exposure small for the time being.

Below is the EUR/USD chart
Attached Thumbnails
eurusd_signal_2-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 3, 2010, 4:27pm   #23
 
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Randgold Resources Stopped Out

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
The gold price seemed to be moving a bit fast to the downside this afternoon so I moved my limit order down a few times, especially after the crude inventories data hit as the gold price took a big down leg at that point. I decided to manage my entry manually using the 2 min and 30 min chart for my entry point.

Trade Details
Randgold Resources Dec 10 Spread
Entry Price: 5779.11
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 24pts

Stop: 5618
Limit: 6500

Account Risk: 2%
Potential Profit: 8.96%
Risk Ratio: 4.47

Entry Grade: 90%

Below is the end of day chart for RRS.
I have been stopped out of my trade in Randgold Resources, after a big sudden fall in the price of Gold this afternoon. Looks like the dollar was the culprit as the currencies look like they are falling as well against the dollar. Am a little bit annoyed I didnít take profits this morning, as I was around 200 points up, but fortunately I moved my stoploss to breakeven a few days ago, so it closed out at breakeven.

Closing trade
Entry Price: 5779.11
Exit Price: 5779.11
Qty: 0.5 per point
Points: 0
P/L: £0

Trade Grade: C-

Below are the charts
Attached Thumbnails
rrs_exit_4hr_3-11-10.png   rrs_exit_30min_3-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 3, 2010, 7:57pm   #24
 
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Risk

isatrader started this thread Iíve been thinking a bit more about risk today and am questioning whether my current risk strategy isnít good enough. I currently use Elderís money management techniques of a maximum risk of 2% per trade and a maximum loss of 6% in a month. If I reach that level then I have to stop trading for the rest of the month or if my open trades add up to that level, then Iím not allowed to put anymore trades on until I move the stop loss up and the risk is reduced below the 6% total level again.

The problem Iím having with this is that if I apply a low risk reward ratio to this of 2 to 1, then I should be making 12% a month to justify this 6% a month risk. Now Iím sure day traders achieve this each month. But Iím a position trader with a full time design job, so Iíd be happy with 12% a year in all honesty. So I think I need to rethink my maximum loss per month and my max trade size to be a more realistic risk reward rate overall.

Not sure what it should be yet, but that it needs to be much more conservative than it currently is.

Profit target per month: 3%
Annual profit target: 36%
Risk Reward: 2:1
=> Max risk per month: 1.5%
=> Max risk per trade: 0.5%

This seems possible and would mean a gain on the account of 36% over a year, which Iíd be very happy with. Although, I think this is very ambitious still for a part timer like me.

Profit target per month: 2%
Annual profit target: 24%
Risk Reward: 2:1
=> Max risk per month: 1%
=> Max risk per trade: 0.33%

2% a month looks more realistic, but I think with my account size that I will be seriously limited in what I can trade. For example, it would only give me a 34 point stop loss on the GBP/USD at £0.40 per point (the min amount with my broker), which has a 200 day ATR of 124 points at the moment. So 4 times the size of my potential max stop loss. Which would make it untradable for me without day trading into the position. I could however trade the S&P 500 index and stocks below 1000 points so I might have to make do with those for now while I try and increase my capital.

I think I need to think research it a bit more.
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Old Nov 3, 2010, 8:28pm   #25
 
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S&P 500 Long Entry

isatrader started this thread Entry Price: 1192.4
Qty: 0.5
Spread: ???

Stop: 1174.2
Limit: 1274

Account Risk: 0.22%
Potential Account Profit: 1.00%
Risk Ratio: 4.48

I made the classic mistake of getting into this trade too close to the news event. I got in about 5 minutes after the Fed decision and made another mistake of watching the spread betting chart instead of the prices in the trade window. The charts are a bit behind and my broker widened the spread so I ended up with a price about 6 points or so above the actual price. Doh!
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Old Nov 4, 2010, 1:26am   #26
 
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GBP/USD Entry zone update

isatrader started this thread Is very tempting to chase this move. It has moved a good 169 points since the signal came on the 28/10, but the value zone is moving up with it and the initial close from when the signal came on is now in the value range and the GBP/USD made a new high near term high today, so Iím more confident the move will continue now. Below is my new entry range:

Target entry zone Ė 4/11
11 Day EMA: 1.5995
50 Day EMA: 1.5828
Chandelier Exit: 1.5814
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd_signal_3-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 4, 2010, 1:32am   #27
 
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EUR/USD Entry Zone

isatrader started this thread EUR/USD made a new near term high, so has confirmed my discretionary requirements now. So am now looking for an entry point in the value zone below:

Target entry zone Ė 4/11
11 Day EMA: 1.3997
22 Day EMA: 1.3935
Chandelier Exit: 1.3771
Attached Thumbnails
eurusd_signal_3-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 4, 2010, 1:41am   #28
 
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Re: AUD/USD Signal On

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
i got the signal confirmation from the force index volume crossover today as the aud/usd moved up strongly to parity, but it has lingered there all day. So iím still not willing to go long yet, as i want a decent close above parity and then a retest back to value for confirmation of the move.
AUD/USD continued up a bit today and managed a close at 1.0058, so Iím looking for a few more days above the parity level and then an entry in the value zone on a pullback.

Current value zone Ė 4/11
11 Day EMA: 0.9916
50 Day EMA: 0.9716
Chandelier Exit: 0.9706

14 day ATR is currently 0.0107
Attached Thumbnails
audusd_signal_3-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 4, 2010, 1:50am   #29
 
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EUR/GBP Signal On

isatrader started this thread EUR/GBP is the other currency pair Iím following and itís signal is now active as well as the other three I follow. I am tentative though, as itís very close to itís value zone and the Chandelier Exit stop and has been crossed it on both of the last two days. So I think for confirmation Iíd like to see a full day close above the Chandelier Exit stop before looking for a pullback to value for an entry point.

Current value zone Ė 4/11
11 Day EMA: 0.8745
22 Day EMA: 0.8737
Chandelier Exit: 0.8723

14 day ATR is currently 0.0075
Attached Thumbnails
eurgbp_signal_3-11-10.png  
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Old Nov 4, 2010, 3:07pm   #30
 
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Hecla Mining Entry

isatrader started this thread Iíve gone long Hecla Mining using the Dec 10 spread at the US open today, as I was annoyed at being whipsawed out of my Randgold Resources position yesterday, which is now up considerably higher again today. Randgold was far too big for my account size, so I searched for gold miners that track the gold price closely and that were manageable in my account. Hecla seems to fit the bill and was on my watch list, so I decided to get in.

Entry Price: 724.2
Qty: 0.32
Spread: 6

Stop: 662.8
Limit: 900

Account Risk: 0.48%
Potential Account Profit: 1.38%
Risk Ratio: 2.86
Attached Thumbnails
hecla-mining_entry_4-11-10.png   hecla-mining_4hr_4-11-10.png  
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