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Old Jul 27, 2011, 11:00am   #71
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 26th of July

PerErik started this thread See full trading log here (with chart images)

The S&P 500 futures failed to make any recovery above the 1335 resistance level and closed in the lower end of the range on slighly increasing volume compared to previous session. Volume was 1.406m contracts traded in the S&P 500 Emini futures, fairly low volume I would say.
See chart below:



What's next? Below 1335 the bias is down. I see this 1325 support as a key level near term and basically above 1325 there is still recovery potential, below 1325 we target 1315, which has been a pivot level over the last months. Minor resistance is at 1335 now.
The feelling is that we will drift lower to 1315, but things can change very quickly in this market, so probably best to just follow the technicals.

Trading wise I sold more 1330 calls for expiration on Friday (29 Jul), so total short of 7 contracts now. Reason for selling these is that I have expect prices to drift down and since I have short a bunch of calls and long 6x futures, I actually wanted to be more negative delta as we go lower.

On the crude side I bought futures, looking for a move higher, but that once again stopped short of 101 and fell back late in the sessions as the API inventory data showed a larger than expected build.
Crude is trading inside this 97.50 to 101.70 range and contiunes to making false break outs and returns back into the range. Tricky to trade at the moment. I still think the upside is somewhat limited near term due to the release of the strategic oil reserves, but longer term demand looks decent, so I don't expect and big move down. I expect the 90 level to hold for quite some time. Crude daily chart below:




Good luck
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Old Jul 29, 2011, 1:56am   #72
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 27th of July

PerErik started this thread See the trading recap at this link
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Old Jul 29, 2011, 1:57am   #73
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 28th of July

PerErik started this thread See the trading recap at this link
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Old Jul 30, 2011, 12:51am   #74
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 29th of July

PerErik started this thread see full trading log with chart images here

Wow, what a day, big swings in both directions and lots of news.
It is amazing how the politicians are once again able to mess things up. Instead of getting things done in time, they wait to the last minutes and play their games, so actually things fall out of hand. Seems like they like the drama and attention that they just cannot miss that by doing things uncomplicated.
It is not strange the approval rating of Obama is at an all time low.
http://www.businessinsider.com/barac...ime-low-2011-7

Back to the markets. We gapped lower by 13 point at the open in the S&P 500 futures, but we saw a solid reversal after breaking below 1280 support to a low of 1278,50.
Buyers stepped in and we saw a rally to 1300,75. One thing I like to point out, we often see reversals when the daily bar reaches more than 500k contracts traded in the S&P500 Emini futures (ES) and the 2nd hourly bar of the day had 580k traded contracts. We should now have potential for a bounce up to 1311 or so at least at the start of next week. All the short calls for expiration today expired out of the money and I kept the premium received, very nice!!!!


I did buy EURCHF as we are at the bottom of the playing field and should see support down here. Another point is that the CHF has outperformed vs ES, see chart below and there is a clear disconnect, something has to give. My bet is that CHF is overvalued at this point and should drift back towards 1.20 where we have the 55 day exponential moving average. Another point is that I am short ES at the moment with the negative delta, meaning it also serves as a hedge trade.


Added a small VIX trade, sold 20 Aug puts and bot 22,50 Sep puts. My thinking is that VIX will drift back below 20 in a few weeks, meaning that we want to be around 20 level when it expires 16th of August. Then the 22,50 would be in solid profit.

Closed the gold futures and sold some more puts and only short 1550 puts, will keep that bias unless we break below 1580.

Also sold October 600 puts in the Corn (ZC) contract at 11 per contractm meaning break even is 589. That means we have to break that key low of 602 to lose money. Good volume down there, so expect that to hold well.




Have a nice weekend
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