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Old Jun 28, 2011, 2:50pm   #50
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 27th of June

PerErik started this thread The S&P500 put in a nice rally Monday to get above the key 1277 resistance, which forced me to hedge som delta on the 1270 short calls I have on for expiration 30 June. I also bot back the 1300 calls that I sold last week for a gain of 610 USD, pretty decent. Why I bot them back? Because they were trading for 0.90 per contract = 45 USD per contract. I see no point keeping them on in case we got a rally to make another 45 USD per contract. That would be bad risk management in my opinion. I also sold 2 contracts of the 1280 calls for expiration 30 June, receiving 8 points per contract = 800. My view is that unless we rally above 1294, the next leg is down, therefore I want to be short delta to express a bearish bias that I hedge if I am wrong of course. Since the market is so jumpy at the moment it feels better to have the options structure than a pure short futures position. As this options gives me a bit more flexibility.
Otherwise I did one crude long, buying in below 90 USD level that has been support a few times before, made 35 cents on that long = 175 USD.
I will close out the Euro positions from Friday on Tuesday.

The entire trading log can be found here

Good luck
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Old Jun 28, 2011, 9:12pm   #51
Joined Dec 2008
Market Report Tuesday 28 of June

PerErik started this thread full pdf version with links

Risk on yesterday and seems like it will continue today, at least that the moment with the S&P 500 emini futures trading up 8.50 points at 1284.75. That is well of the low we saw Friday at 1261.25. So it appears that we have once more bounce off that 1250 to 1260 support zone. The key level to get above now in my opinion to open for a larger rally is 1294, as that would make a higher low and higher high on the daily chart. Last week’s high was also 1293.75.

The market is very much news driven and the market is closely following the developments in Greece. We will have the austerity vote as the major event this week. My view for some time has been that the only likely outcome of the Greece story will be a structured or outright default. I just don’t see it possible for Greece to pay back the mounting debt they are accumulating within a reasonable timeline.
The US debt limit discussion is also another event risk on the horizon to keep an eye on going forward.
I also see there has been another bank failure in Denmark over the last days, Fjordbank Mors, a regional bank.
http://www.independent.ie/business/e...s-2806921.html


Back the markets and what I am looking at this week.
Gold is looking interesting I think for a possible rebound


Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Looking for a rebound in Gold towards 1520 over the next few sessions
- US 10 year futures is looking overbought and downside target is 123’20
- Euro has key resistance at 1.4496 that I think will be difficult to take out this week
- EURCHF looking very attractive to get long for a move back above 1.22
- Crude oil looks interesting to buy on dips above 89.50 for a move back to 93.80
- Corn looks oversold, first upside target is 690

Today’s calendar:
16.00 US consumer confidence
18.45 Bank of Canada Dep. Gov. Cote speaks
19.00 Fed's Fisher speaks
01.50 Japan industrial production

POMO, at 16:15 to 17:00, scheduled of $4 - $5 billion to be bought by NY Fed.

Interesting headlines:
Finance Minister Seeks Votes for Greek Austerity Plan - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories


Extent of local debts in China laid bare - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1e47d...#axzz1QQh2MtL3



Five biggest threats to the US economy - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...S-economy.html
Greek minister warns of 'catastrophe' if parliamentary revolt leads to austerity bill being blocked - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...g-blocked.html
A Greek debt buyback would avoid the dreaded default - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...d-default.html
China is building a better future for all - The Telegraph by Wen Jiabao
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-for-all.html
Greek Debt Talks Widen - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories
Greek Bond Buybacks Discussed at Meeting - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories
Gold Can't Hold $1,500 - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...EFTTopWhatNews
Euro Makes Gains on Greek Hopes - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ctions_markets
U.K. Only Semi-Detached From Euro Zone's Troubles - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...944730546.html
Dollar seen losing global reserve status - The WSJ -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23183...#axzz1QQh2MtL3

EU ‘Brady bonds’ plan for Greece - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c1a1...#axzz1QQh2MtL3

Give Greece time to prove it can do the job - The FT - By George Papaconstantinou
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc16c...#axzz1QQh2MtL3

Obama Targets $72 Billion Business Tax Break - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...cans-balk.html

Technical’s and comments

Euro: The next level of key resistance is 1.4380 to 1.44, with 2 week high of 1.4496 as the big level to the upside for now. To the downside we have followed by 1.4230 and key support at 1.4150. This pair is very choppy and not my favorite market to trade at the moment. If I had to pick direction I would still look to sell rallies.
Cable: Prefer to sell rallies in this pair at the moment with 1.6040 as the first level that I see as a potential entry level.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: Buying on dips above 1.04 looks the most interesting for now. Look out for any stock market sell off as a trigger to get out of longs.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Good upside momentum yesterday and this morning, but I reckon we must see a daily close above 1294 to really get bullish. A daily close above 1294 would give us a higher low and higher high on the daily chart, which should open for more upside. Key support is 1260, followed by 1250 now.
Gold: Looks interesting to be long above 1490 with relatively tight stop.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 89.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 93.80 near term. Need to see a daily close above 95.50 to open for an extension to 98.50 near term. A daily close below 89.50 would be negative and would not hold long if we break below this level.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Old Jun 28, 2011, 9:41pm   #52
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 287th of June

PerErik started this thread Another risk rally today and the S&P 500 emini (ES) futures closed at 1294,25 just above last week's high of 1293,75. This give us a higher low and a higher high on the daily chart. See daily ES chart below

Had to hedge more delta as we gained momemtum to the upside in the ES. I still see the 1294 to 1295 as the key resistance at the moment. We have not really broken clean to the upside yet, just one point is not enough to convince me to put it that way. Although the rally has been quite strong off that 1261,25 low from Friday as you can see on the hourly chart, we only have 2 down bars last 2 sessions.
60 min chart

I made some adjustements to my ES options structure as I bought back the 4x 1270 exp 30 June calls and closed the 2 long futures and instead I sold 2X 1295 exp 30 June calls instead and sold 2x 1310 July calls (exp 15 Jul). My thinking is that if we break above 1295 by 2 points or so the market so have further upside potential. While below 1295 I still see risk for a move lower. Therefore I postioned myself for that scenario by using those options to express that instead of being purely short in the futures. The futures have traded fairly choppy last week and been tricky in my opinion. This options position give me a bit more margin for error so to speak.

I also closed out the Euro structure for 1100 profit today, so that is good.

Full list of the trading log here

Good luck
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Old Jun 30, 2011, 1:04pm   #53
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 29th of June

PerErik started this thread Complete trading log with charts: here

Another up day in the S&P 500 and we have now rallied very strongly off that low of 1261 on Friday last week. A few things that I want to point out. We have 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1361 to 1252 move comes in at 1307, which is now the next resistance level. See S&P 500 emini daily chart below.


The 60min chart below looks pretty overbought and I don't think much has really changed the last few days. The Greek austerity vote is of course positive, but the upside from here is probably a bit more difficult than the bounce we have seen from 1250 area a few times now. I see chance for a pretty quick dip towards 1292 support over the next few sessions. A daily close below 1292 would be bad news for the bullish momentum. I am positioned for a dip in the options structure I have on in the S&P, so I don't want it to go above this 1307 resistance.


Trading wise I closed out the corn structure for a total of 837,50 USD in profit. The reason is simply that we have the USDA Acerage report out before the open tomorrow and I see the risk for a pretty big move in either direction, so not interested in playing that joker card as I have no strong bias on the outcome of that report.

Crude oil rallied strongly following DOE crude inventory data showed a larger than expected draw and got well above 94.07 gap we had on the daily chart. Next key resistance is the 96 level.
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Old Jul 1, 2011, 12:38am   #54
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 30th of June

PerErik started this thread The quarter ended with a good move to the upside in the S&P 500 futures once again as we tend to see toward quarter end. We have now rallied just more than 50 points in the S&P 500 futures since Friday, not bad. It does looks overbaught now and it will be interesting to see if it can contiune the rally and take out that falling key resistance from the yearly high, which is coming in at 1317.

Corn had a huge move lower today following the USDA acreage report, which totally caught the market on the wrong foot. We had no limit in the July contract and it closed down by 69 cents, 9,9%. That is just nuts. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...age-gains.html

I am considering setting up a trade (options) looking for somewhat of an retracement of today's drop. Will come back to that over the next few sessions.

Trading wise I did plenty of adjustments in the S&P 500 emini futures. See the log for all trades. The 1300 short puts expired out of the money, giving me the total premum collected in profit. Had to buy back the 1280 calls though as the market gained momentum to the upside. My thinking is that we should see a dip back down to 1292 next 3 sessions, which I am positioned for. If we break higher above 1317 I need to hedge more delta, so we will see what the market brings. I also sold 2x 1340 calls for August expiration at 15 per contract, thinking that the upside should go much slower from here, so should be able to get out quite a bit of time value on those.

I also added one more put spread in the Euro right before the close. I think we will trade down towards the 1.43 to 1.4250 level pretty quickly again.

See full list of trades here

Good luck
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Old Jul 1, 2011, 1:32pm   #55
Joined Dec 2008
Market Report Friday 1st of July

PerErik started this thread Full pdf version here

Daily Market Report for Friday 1st of July 2011
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The quarter ended with a good move to the upside in the S&P 500 futures once again as we tend to see toward quarter end. The S&P 500 was basically flat for the quarter (-0,39%) and is up 5,01% for the year. We have now rallied just more than 50 points in the S&P 500 futures since Friday, not bad. It does looks overbought now and it will be interesting to see if it can continue the rally and take out that falling key resistance from the yearly high, which is coming in at 1317, see chart of the S&P 500 emini futures below how that trend line is clear resistance now. I favor a move back to the 1292 support over the next 3 sessions.


Corn had a huge move lower today following the USDA acreage report, which totally caught the market on the wrong foot. We had no limit in the July contract and it closed down by 69 cents, 9,9%. That is just nuts. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...age-gains.html

I am considering setting up a trade (options) looking for somewhat of a retracement of yesterday's drop, but I first want to see that corn can stabilize a bit and not continue the melt down. Will come back to that over the next few sessions over Twitter, where I publish my trades in real time.
Another chart I found pretty interesting is the Crude oil chart. We have a strong bounce off that 89.69 low last week up to test the key resistance at 96. However it failed 2 consecutive days to get above the 96 level and I now fancy a move lower back to the 92.90 support. Take a look at the chart below and you see that 96 is the key pivot level, with both a prior daily high and a falling resistance line in that region.



I am a bit surprised to see gold and silver performing so weak over the last few days. When we see risk bid gold and silver seems to be lagging and not able to get any real momentum. Looking at the chart it shows the reason. We have taken out the interim support and broken to the downside of the triangle that we have been trading inside for the last 2 months. Looks like we can test 1464 next.
A key factor can be that interest rates have moved up along the curve, making it less attractive to hold gold and silver as they are not generating any cash flow, so when the interest rates rises it becomes more attractive to hold Treasuries compared to Gold. Looking at the correlation between gold and US 10 year Treasury futures the prices are pretty correlated, meaning lower interest rates is bullish for gold and vice versa. But who really cares about the reason for moving lower? Price action is always the king.



Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Key resistance 1317 in the S&P futures and I am looking for move back to 1292 support over the next 3 sessions.
- We have Independence Day in the US on Monday, meaning the US market is closed.
- Crude failed at 96 for the second consecutive day yesterday; expect a dip towards 92.90 support.
- Silver is approaching the lower end of the last month’s range, range 32.75 to 38.76.
- Gold has broken to the downside and looking for a test of the May low at 1464 next.
- Euro is looking overbought; I fancy a move back to the 55 exponential moving average at 1.4330 near term.

Today’s calendar:
15:55 US Michigan Sentiment
16:00 US Construction Spending
16:00 US ISM PMI

Over the weekend, the EU and IMF will meet to decide on the 5th loan tranche to Greece.
Interesting headlines:
State is now dominant force in US capital markets - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/63818...#axzz1QQh2MtL3


Greece approves second part of controversial austerity bill - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...rity-bill.html
Emerging markets could be the new safe haven for investors - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...investors.html
German Banks Agree to Greek Aid Deal - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories
Belgium: Give Greece More Money - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...EFTTopWhatNews
Trichet Against Non-Voluntary 'Debt Action' - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...EFTTopWhatNews
QE2′s Winners and Losers - The WSJ -
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011...rs-and-losers/
Senate Democrats Invite Obama for Debt Talks - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000..._sections_news
A Case When Buying Time Worsens the Burden - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...818436698.html
Greece can be saved – here’s how to do it - The FT -
http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/...#axzz1Qo3dyAOj
Geithner talks of quitting US Treasury - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b7c00...#axzz1QQh2MtL3
Japan’s Tankan Deteriorates to Worse-Than-Expected Minus 9 on Quake Impact - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ke-impact.html

Technical’s and comments

Euro: I expect the falling resistance to hold and a move back into the range, targeting the 55 EMA at 1,4330. Might be interesting to look at some downside option plays?
Cable: Looks like a better choice to short GBP than Euro at the moment as we have broken above the key resistance level at 0.90 in EURGBP. First upside level to get short I figures is around the 1.61 level and stop above 1.6150 or so.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: Strong move higher in the EURCHF as we are once again above the 1.2250 level. Expect gains in the EURCHF to be much slower going forward. Given that I think we see a move lower in the S&P next it could be interesting to look at a downside play in USCHF near term. Have resistance at 0.85 at the moment.
AUDUSD: We have strong resistance around the 1.0750 level, so would not chase the price action above that level.
USDCAD: Rapid move lower and I think it makes sense to wait for a rally back up towards 0.9730 or to get short again.
S&P Future (ES): Ended yesterday higher as I expected, although a bit higher then I had anticipated. Have key falling resistance from the yearly highs coming in at 1317. Expect a move lower to 1292 support over the next 3 sessions.
Gold: Broken to the downside technically and next downside target is 1464. I would not go short at current levels as we have seen plenty of bounces in this region. If long I would prefer to use options or possibly long futures and sell some calls against the long futures to give a bit more flexibility.
Crude oil: Failed at 96 resistance for the 2nd consecutive day yesterday. I now look for a move down towards 92.90 support.



________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Old Jul 5, 2011, 12:02am   #56
Joined Dec 2008
Trading recap 4th of July

PerErik started this thread Did just one trade today, sold 1x 1320 puts for expiration at 15 July for 8,75 points.
My thinking is that the risk on from last week will extend towards the NFP report out Friday. That will be the next big event risk in my opinion.
We need to see a recovery in the US jobs market to see any new yearly highs in the S&P 500. The latest trend of the US data have been for a slight recovery, meaning the weak set of data that we seen for a few months is about to reverse for the better. Seems like the market is pricing in a decent NFP report now. Another weak number would definately cause the biggest potential move.

The updated trading log can be seen here

Good luck
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