eurusd / 6E new Bull market ???

Trdr · Jul 4, 2010

attached is a labeled Weekly chart that illustrates what I think's gone on

look at all the major turns and you'll see that there's been a Reversal formation of
various time lengths, I'm expecting a similar one currently, lasting perhaps till the
end of the second week of August before the rally gets under way for real
however, reversal formations do not always form

the qualifier I'll add to 'Bull market' is anything from a fibo reversal correction of
the drop from the 1.51 to a rally back up to that level, perhaps even 1.60 , but not
necessarily a new high greater than 1.60

the US$ is a Short

Sun/Mon will see the week begin with probable lite volume and range due to the
US holiday - happy 4th of July - some downside first before rallying ?
the white Retracement fibo levels appear to be working so the A price targets are
the 50 and 61.8 levels - around 1.2775 and 1.30 - note where the Speed Fan line
intersects the 61.8 level

the charts I post will most often be produced with MetaStock, I only use MS for
eod historical analysis, I use MetaTrader 4 for realtime trading analysis and import
MT data into MS. the only tool MT doesn't have is the Speed Lines Fan

.

snowrider · Jul 4, 2010

Hi there, this is my first posting in this forum. I agree that a new EUR bull has started. (I prefer this wave count because that is how my position is accumulated.) Or at least a daily wave-c is underway. However, I don't rule out that the monthly wave-4 has not finished yet, which means that the weekly wave-C could be in extending formation.

Sorry for my using confusing terms like daily, weekly, and monthly. I would recommend that the wave labelling could use something like __1, _1, 1, (1), ((1)), (((1))), [1], [[1]], [[[1]]] etc. so that we can easily reference your wave count without any problem.

Trdr · Jul 11, 2010

another of the few times I'm stuck deciding what's going to happen next with the price

I've a time target of Wed Jul 14 , NY morning which 'may' be a trend change point -
or not
but I can't decide from the current pattern formation what's now going on, nor how
influential is the ECB bank stress test ? will the price run Up or Down to the Fri July 23
release, or will the release be a non event ?

if the price drops to the 1.2150 area it could be part of a large AB reversal formation
that might base at the 1.19 area again, or, only go to the 1.23 area and the formation
form what might be a correction completion of a W 0-1-abc2

so I guess from all that, my bias is to the downside, but could we get a run up to
the 1.28 ? 1.29 ? area till Wednesday ?

.

Trdr · Jul 19, 2010

nice rally last week, correction this week ? reversal formation ? - rally's topped ?

on the attached Daily chart I've drawn all the relevant retracement fibos plus
the Speed Resistance Lines fan from the Weekly, which together with the sec
intersect around the 1.3076 area of the yellow fibo 61.8 level, which coincides
with one of the longer grey fibo's 38.2 - not to say that's The HH, there's black
fibo's 38.2 level which is drawn on the whole Nov 2009 - June 2010 decline so
there's a could-be to 1.3128, especially if traders aren't bothered about the Fri
release and don't intend closing Buys until Fri
(other coinciding fibos - black 50 and white 61.8 levels around 1.35+ . . .)
both the D and W have my hit time targets, but, an additional 'stronger' ? W
time target doesn't hit until mid August . . . like those Speed fans
91 European banks are being tested, last Friday saw the 96th US bank failure
(57 this time last year for a total 140) so the ECB banks involved in the test is
a bit of a drop in the bucket compared to what's going on in the US

Trdr · Jul 26, 2010

WSJ: 'Five Spanish Cajas Fail EU Stress Tests'
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100723-711658.html
Nov 06, 2009 'Spain in real trouble'
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Spain/Price-History
this emphasis on Spain is from watching some of a mini documentary by the BBC
about Spain where the commentator said there's one million new unsold and empty
condos in Spain now owned by banks/cajas - the buiders/developers are bankrupt

the 4H chart illustrates possibilities of an AB Reversal formation forming - meaning
a major top - end of rally - W 4 - and eventual break of 1.19, or
a bull Correction where the drop to 1.275- was A, B 1.29+ possibly completed and
C possibly underway, where C could drop to the 1.275- area - possible 1.265- area
If there's is an ABC, the H target price is 1.3650 - optimistic ?

I expect most of this week's US economic reports to be weak, and then the NFP
the week after to also be a no-gainer since it's the summer and a lot of people don't
work/look for work/quit work during for the summer, and given the price is still within
a sec on the D where that L is about 1.2775 , watch the Tue - Wed session - tt -
to see if the price takes off Up - soonest

Trdr · Aug 2, 2010

are we going to have a Down correction this week given the NFP release on Friday ?

I'm presuming the H to 1.31 was a w 3 and an ABC has started with my W 4 target a range of areas at 1.295 ? 1.290 ? 1.2975 ? 1.2775 ?
whether that'll take the rest of the week to complete I'm not sure, no reason why
traders can't ignore the release and trade the price Up to the 1.335 area after the
c W 4 is complete

both the BoE and ECB announce on Thurs - 7 & 7:45am EST, neither expected
to change current rates

4H chart with new secs and fibos

.

Trdr · Aug 8, 2010

my previous 3 weeks analysis have been Wrong, Wrong, and, Wrong
the saving grace has been the lines, the fibos and secs and the price target of
1.335, the price has traveled within the secs and interacted with the various fibo
levels and neared the 1.335 . has the price topped ?

in a Down trend a retracement-correction - Up will have 3 waves, and sometimes
the w 1 can be quite large. the subsequent waves formation may or may not have
the appearance of a single wave, causing one to think there's in total, a 5 wave
formation in progress, not 3
the period from June 30 to July 21 could be thought of as w 1-2 of a W 3 - w 3
hasn't completed yet ? and W 5 then could reasonably go to 1.39 in keeping with
a 5 wave scenario - target the 61.8 of the whole down trend fibo from 1.51+ —
but may anyway still only be 3 waves

using the fibo from the jan 13/10 HH , the Aug 3 close was right on the 50.0 level
and the Friday close was above it, so there's a reasonable expectation the price
will travel to the 61.8 level of around 1.3550 - this week ? a decline/correction to
1.32 till Tuesday first ? 1.3550 next week ?

this week, next and possibly the week after is a time target period; there's several
scenarios that could appear so this is a first advisement prior to knowing what the
next high - if one is to come will be

the $ has been in a narrow range downtrend, a work in progress how low the $ goes
but will be reflected in the euro's price - as other currencies, besides what may be
occurring with the PIIGS' economics, which at present seems stabilized
so the $ 'going to hell' chat may soon re-emerge particularly if it breaks 78

.

Trdr · Aug 16, 2010

at present, I'll say the move from 1.18 to 1.33 has seen the completion of a 3 wave
Retracement rally of the Nov 09 1.51 to June 1.18 downtrend
this means it was W 4 - or in the process of completing W 4 and that the 1.18 low
will/should/may be broken
however
the 1.33 high could be A of an AB that may base at or above 1.18 , or
1.33 was w 3 of 5 , doing A of an ABC, a higher high to come — the other scenarios

I expect there to be another wave down with w 5 target around 1.265 - 1.255 which
could be hit Tuesday - the Wednesday session and possibly take straight off Up
but again, there's a lower low of 1.245 - 1.240 which is the 61.8 of the whole rally
and would negate the Tue/Wed as a rally start, but could be a w 3-4 correction of
5 waves down to 1.24

longer time targeting, I'm thinking that August will be a down month - 2 weeks left
then there'll either be a 'complex' w 2 correction during September the up month or
the B moves back up to the 1.33 - or higher level, then October sees the beginning
of either w 1 or the w 3 Down which might break the 1.18 low before W 5 completes
closer to par with the $ or
there's the completion of the B base around 1.18 or higher and start of a rally

main thing near term, watch the 1.265 - 1.255 level

the tit-for-tat $ - HH & HC retracement fibos from 6/23 & 6/22
Friday HH of 83.35 above the HC 50.0 , just below the HH 50.0
HC 61.8 is 83.98 , HH 61.8 is 84.15

what lends credence ??? to a new high to come for the euro is the state of the US
and thereby the value of the $
did the $ on June 6 complete the B of an AB reversal, complete w 1 Down and is
now in the process of doing w 2 ? or is it in the process of completing C - W 2 of
it's new Bull rally ?

during this next year, how low can the FFRate go ? how many ARMs will default ?
will NFP unemployment rise again ? how many states will declare bankruptcy ? etc
and all that and more vs the ECB, euro . . . . . who'll you put your money on ?

chart: 4H

.

JahDave · Aug 16, 2010

Trdr said:
at present, I'll say the move from 1.18 to 1.33 has seen the completion of a 3 wave
Retracement rally of the Nov 09 1.51 to June 1.18 downtrend
this means it was W 4 - or in the process of completing W 4 and that the 1.18 low
will/should/may be broken
however
the 1.33 high could be A of an AB that may base at or above 1.18 , or
1.33 was w 3 of 5 , doing A of an ABC, a higher high to come — the other scenarios

I expect there to be another wave down with w 5 target around 1.265 - 1.255 which
could be hit Tuesday - the Wednesday session and possibly take straight off Up
but again, there's a lower low of 1.245 - 1.240 which is the 61.8 of the whole rally
and would negate the Tue/Wed as a rally start, but could be a w 3-4 correction of
5 waves down to 1.24

longer time targeting, I'm thinking that August will be a down month - 2 weeks left
then there'll either be a 'complex' w 2 correction during September the up month or
the B moves back up to the 1.33 - or higher level, then October sees the beginning
of either w 1 or the w 3 Down which might break the 1.18 low before W 5 completes
closer to par with the $ or
there's the completion of the B base around 1.18 or higher and start of a rally

main thing near term, watch the 1.265 - 1.255 level

the tit-for-tat $ - HH & HC retracement fibos from 6/23 & 6/22
Friday HH of 83.35 above the HC 50.0 , just below the HH 50.0
HC 61.8 is 83.98 , HH 61.8 is 84.15

what lends credence ??? to a new high to come for the euro is the state of the US
and thereby the value of the $
did the $ on June 6 complete the B of an AB reversal, complete w 1 Down and is
now in the process of doing w 2 ? or is it in the process of completing C - W 2 of
it's new Bull rally ?

during this next year, how low can the FFRate go ? how many ARMs will default ?
will NFP unemployment rise again ? how many states will declare bankruptcy ? etc
and all that and more vs the ECB, euro . . . . . who'll you put your money on ?

chart: 4H

.

That is some really nice charting and my preferred count for the Euro is to make a new high, but the current move down has been very impulsive, so I made some very good trades down last week, but I am waiting on the sidelines right now and am watching wave structure very closely...
Good Trading,
Dave

Trdr · Aug 25, 2010

my apologies for the late post: for Sunday Aug 22/10

the price ended in fibo limbo land, not closing at or on any of the many fibo levels
on the 4H, but did interact with the Speed fans - black adjusted plus new secs
I think that L last Monday was the end of a 'truncated fifth' and the white fibo's 50
was certainly significant enough for it to be a bounce platform which it turned out
to be, with the price going on to interact with its 38.2 level, new secs and fans

I'm wondering if there's an ABC going on; low to 1.26 ? then rally to 1.29/.28 ?
then decline to 1.245 area ?
or is the correction over and it's straight down from here ?

down Mon ? rally thru Wed ? then decline into next week to a negative again NFP ?

chart: 4H

Trdr · Aug 30, 2010

what a ratty week
i can get impatient with corrections, while they can be great trading opportunities
because they'll conform with a wave count, fibos and secs, there's times like last
week when the smart move would have been a buy on the 50/61.8 line and gone
on holiday rather than trying to daytrade the movement

the in-theory significant fundamental this week is Friday's NFP number, and how
correct or not the consensus estimates are compared to the NFP data - revisions ?
generally trading falls to the release often going sideways for 24 hrs or days even
until the interest rate or NFP etc is released

given this seasonally weak summer time period traders etc may have since last
Tue/Wed decided the NFP will be weak anyway so 'why wait ? buy'
T/W were significant because the formation during that period may have been an
AB reversal formation, slightly bullish as they've all been since the 1.18+ low
~ how much fundamental analysis does one allow into ones ta ? ~
~ how much fundamental analysis does one need in ones ta ? ~
so is the Aug 6-24 waves an ABC ? or ? A, now doing B to peak on Friday, and a
C to subsequently bottom at the coincidental 61.8/76.4 fibos levels at about 1.2430
the ABC idea could mean W 4 completed T/W and we're on W 5 to break the 1.33
or, that Monday will close up, completing the abc - B of the Down wave correction at
around 1.2840, possibly 1.2870 , 1.290 , + ?? then beginning the C Down - the NFP
having no relevance, or possibly stronger than expected adding to the ownside

looking at the $ chart it appears more clearly, simply, that the current Retracement
rally has done A and is doing c of B before continuing to rally into 84+

so, Monday evening Tuesday session will be the time to watch based on the idea
that's where the eurusd price will top, and begin a 400+ pip decline —
but first a reversal formation ? lasting till Friday ???

chart: 4H

JahDave · Aug 30, 2010

Trdr said:
what a ratty week
i can get impatient with corrections, while they can be great trading opportunities
because they'll conform with a wave count, fibos and secs, there's times like last
week when the smart move would have been a buy on the 50/61.8 line and gone
on holiday rather than trying to daytrade the movement

the in-theory significant fundamental this week is Friday's NFP number, and how
correct or not the consensus estimates are compared to the NFP data - revisions ?
generally trading falls to the release often going sideways for 24 hrs or days even
until the interest rate or NFP etc is released

given this seasonally weak summer time period traders etc may have since last
Tue/Wed decided the NFP will be weak anyway so 'why wait ? buy'
T/W were significant because the formation during that period may have been an
AB reversal formation, slightly bullish as they've all been since the 1.18+ low
~ how much fundamental analysis does one allow into ones ta ? ~
~ how much fundamental analysis does one need in ones ta ? ~
so is the Aug 6-24 waves an ABC ? or ? A, now doing B to peak on Friday, and a
C to subsequently bottom at the coincidental 61.8/76.4 fibos levels at about 1.2430
the ABC idea could mean W 4 completed T/W and we're on W 5 to break the 1.33
or, that Monday will close up, completing the abc - B of the Down wave correction at
around 1.2840, possibly 1.2870 , 1.290 , + ?? then beginning the C Down - the NFP
having no relevance, or possibly stronger than expected adding to the ownside

looking at the $ chart it appears more clearly, simply, that the current Retracement
rally has done A and is doing c of B before continuing to rally into 84+

so, Monday evening Tuesday session will be the time to watch based on the idea
that's where the eurusd price will top, and begin a 400+ pip decline —
but first a reversal formation ? lasting till Friday ???

chart: 4H

Here is my weekly Euro chart. Of course I may not be right.

Trdr · Sep 5, 2010

can't say that i've much idea what's going on with the euro

if the price were to decline from here, it would be a strange to me ABC correction
based on the 4H chart, i'd have expected the decline to have begun last Thursday

i wonder if Aug 24-31 formation was an AB suggesting a bottom/trend change and
that what's going on now may be the B of an AB ? that will top around 1.33 ? before
the end of September ? perhaps a decline till Thur ? mirror the Aug 13-18 formation -
drop to the 1.275 area ? then continue the rally

Trdr · Sep 12, 2010

the price is finally evolving into something recognisable enough to me to predict 3
trades - 2 buys 1 sell

on the basis the price is forming an AB base
buy 1 comes in around the 50/61.8 fibos area, previous Aug 24 LL of 1.25871
this buy would go to the 1.290 area and be c of an abc correction, B of an ABC from
the 1.33 H and decline to a new low
buy 2 would be the same excepting the price would rally past 1.29 , maybe reaching
1.33 or beyond, possible becoming an AB prior to the trend reversing, and still being
B of an ABC

the buys time is difficult to determine; it could be Mon - Tue session, Wed/Thur or
not until Mon next week; it's already spent nearly 3 trading weeks going thru the
formation to date, it could bottom then go thru an ab before taking off; also it's not
possible to know whether the b leg of the ab would be horizontal - similar price to
1.2587 or higher or lower than the 1.2587

the sell is for some a continuation of a sell that may have been entered last Monday
the price levels to watch will initially be the same 1.2587 area to see if the price
bottoms, or drops through to a new low
the possibilities of what the down wave could be are C of an ABC prior to a rally, the
B leg of an AB from the June 1.18 low meaning a low down to or nearer 1.18

the possibility for the buys is that the price drops to 1.25 or 1.24 area - bounces
along the way - 1.2665 , 1.2635 areas - since 1.24 is the coincidental 61.8/76.4
fibos, but next week - 21/22 maybe 24, unless there's a fast drop, then possibly
a rally for a c between the low and 1.29, or higher, a longer rallying thru October

the immediate key level is around the 1.2587 area
could the price run up to 1.280+ before it drops ?

chart: Daily

Trdr · Sep 19, 2010

'What happened to Europe's collapse ?'
"The much anticipated economic demise hasn't happened.
Looks like the Continent's bust was a bust."
Michael Elliott, contributor, On Friday September 17, 2010, 5:30 am EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/What-happened-to-Europes-hftn-1314322966.html?x=0

last week's post was crap
the end of the AB and i had missed it . . . . . couldn't see the forest for the trees
it actually ended on Thur Sep 9 around 7pm pst
end of the B leg higher than the start of the A - bullish

the price topped at the 76.4 of the Aug 6-24 HH-LL fibo although even on the 1min
no bar closed on or above that level, a minor suggestion the price will go higher
since prices sometimes dick around closing below/above fibo levels before breaking
them and closing higher/lower; the D closed on the 61.8 of that fibo

2 time targets are Thur 23 , and longer Fri Oct 1 - based in part on the Weekly, and
a note that the Sep NFP won't be released until Oct 8 - likely to be positive
along with the Oct 1 tt various lines coincide to suggest a 1.3350 area price target
i have no wave count on this current wave, presuming the formation will complete
the B of an AB and for the price to then decline

but is it possible the high of this move will only be 1.3250 ? also a coincidence of
lines and levels, particularly the longer term 50% level fibo the price closed on on
Aug 3/10 and 85.4 of the current fibo
the W chart closes of Aug 15-Sep 5 IF the formation is an AB has a lower B leg
suggesting a weaker rally, ie this B leg won't carry as high as the Aug 1 A leg
beginning of 1.3333 , an earlier rather than later top ?

chart: Daily

Trdr · Sep 26, 2010

the $ never made it to 84, it formed a H&S and dropped to its current 79.59
when it closed at 80.49 on Aug 6 is was on the 50% of the weekly Nov09-Jun10
LC fibo, ran back up to the 38.2 and now this decline thru the 61.8
so the question is if it will continue to drop to say the 76.4 around 78.40 , or rally
back into the low 80s, which is the similar reverse question for the euro

once again the euro closed just below the 50% of the Nov09-June10 decline fibo as
well as additional fibos that are slightly higher
the two major scenarios I see are this leg being B of an AB reversal or it's B of an
ABC, both of which in short order means a drop anywhere down to 1.26 completing
what would be W4 with a fifth wave to come, or the AB, major Down
the second scenario is the rally continuing to the 1.39 area, 61.8 level + other fibos
and the projection fibos that come in at 1.3950 . this would occur after a possible
Monday only correction c of an abc down to 1.3350/30 ? which may begin soonest
after the Sunday opening ? - gap up ? and with either scenario downside first

time wise there's the case for either the 1.39 as early as the end of this week or for
the '1.26' the week of Oct 8 - I favor the 1.39 scenario

chart: Daily

Trdr · Oct 4, 2010

not much to say, still going up even tho there may be some correction this week I
don't think the top is in
main thing this week is BoE and ECB on Thursday - non event and NFP Friday -
NFP: Prior: -54,000 Consensus: 0 Consensus Range: -75,000 to 25,000 that's a
tight range with a flat Consensus, maybe we'll see some fireworks/depth charges

Trdr · Oct 11, 2010

the NFP turned out to be a bit of a non event, and Thursday saw the price top-out ?
quite conveniently at the confluence of projected target lines
while the euro hit its projected target I remain ambivalent whether it will climb higher
or reverse; possible it will form a reversal formation - Tue/Wed then drop to about
the 1.36 area ? 1.35 ?? into the MidTerm elections - Nov 2 , $ rallies to 79.40ish ?

when I look at the Swiss Franc chart it looks like it's formed a reversal formation
and about to begin a drop from its record 104+ high back down to the 60s
the dollar formation tho isn't yet anywhere near as pronounced as the usdchf; while
the $ bounced off the 61.8 level in August, it only paused at the 76.4 before coming
within spitting distance of the 85.4 on Thursday, and closing low on Friday. so this
leaves me thinking it may go lower, perhaps 76.50 ? before making a retracement
rally, meaning the euro will rally until the dollar turns
but what reason does the dollar have to rally ?

I've wondered for some time if the $ April 08-current is a W 1-2 formation, currently
doing C , significantly meaning the euro is also completing the C of a somewhat
weak W 2 - low B leg
I don't expect this idea to be resolved before next year, although while the $ A leg
has 5 distinct waves, this current leg - the above aside could continue down in a
3 wave move to around 74
an alternative is the formation is an AB/inverted H&S suggesting a longer period to
base nearer the 70 level with a probable 5 waves
while I don't see the euro climbing to the 1.51 area again unless the $ goes to 70
I do see a move to the 1.44/5 area which again are major fibo levels

forexkunta · Oct 16, 2010

It seems that wave C has finally reached equality with wave A this week, plus about 100 pips, and put in a wave 5 of C, with significant bearish divergence on the RSI, on the daily chart. Are we in for a reversal next week, or in the coming weeks? Could be!
Kent

Trdr · Oct 17, 2010

last week's action was either B of an ABC - doing C , or B of an AB/H&S reversal
formation, an aggressive one at that
I'll hold with the idea of a reversal; on the 60 and 4H the price has obviously fallen
out of the channels based on the Sep 9 low, topped with the longer 4H channel from
Aug 24 low, likewise topped on the Thursday D HC channel from the June 7 low

the previous week's HCs hit the confluence of the several fibos on my charts in the
1.39-1.3950 area, and last the run-up was into a void, excepting the HC on a major
fibo projection based on the June-August wave

so let's go with the idea a W 3 has ended and there's going to be a correction
my current correction fibo is drawn from LL Sep 10 - HH Oct 15 and Friday's low hit
and stopped at the 14.6 level and other fibos/sec lines
the correction fibo levels are at 1.38, 1.3580, 1.34 and it's these last two levels -
38.2 and 50.0 that bracket the major retracement fibos - 1.345 -1.355 area, which
is a fair drop if the price goes all the way down, with the time target of the week of
Nov 2 mid term results

week's targets: 1.38 area ? by Tuesday ? then back up to 1.395 area ? by Friday ?
$ to 77.80 ? or, 78.40 ?

chart: Daily

eurusd / 6E new Bull market ???

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