'No indicators' revisited

This is a discussion on 'No indicators' revisited within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; The S&P 500 High YTD occurred on the 5th of March.... interesting coincidence maybe CJ...

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Old Apr 26, 2004, 6:15pm   #449
 
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The S&P 500 High YTD occurred on the 5th of March.... interesting coincidence maybe


CJ

Last edited by a320; Apr 26, 2004 at 6:27pm.
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Old Apr 30, 2004, 4:14pm   #450
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Skim, I have a Q about yesterday's action if you don't mind.
I recall a while ago when you illustrated tops & bottoms and said that with experience you should be able to spot them.
Well I thought i was getting better, until yesterday, when during the down trend I thought it had bottomed 3 times only for it to continue down shortly after.
Even with hindsight I can't really see where I went wrong.
I'd be grateful for any advice
Thx,
hampy
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Old Apr 30, 2004, 11:22pm   #451
 
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Couldn't answer before, as I was trading, and the answer is not a quick one.

Yes, you can spot tops and bottoms with experience. And it's quite easy, but you have to know what a good one looks like, and when a good one turns into a bad one.

Let's start with the big picture yesterday, on the ES 10 minute chart (posted below). A trend reversal pattern (a double top) formed, so the movement was then down. The longer time the top takes to form, the greater the resultant move. That double top took an hour to form.

The drop from the top to the bottom I've marked in wellington boot green and labelled A. The same length bar (marked B) is then placed at the top of wave 4, to give you an idea of how low the price may drop.

The price bounced at the 15:00 bar which was at the exact level of the measured move B. That bounce, I suggest, was where geometric traders went long because of the measured move. But the positioning of wave 2 suggested to me as if there was more down to come. The move down finally ended on a doji bar.
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Old Apr 30, 2004, 11:40pm   #452
 
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I always find it helps to look at the other indices to see what's happening there.

The following chart is the COMPX (the Nasdaq Composite Index), and you'll see that the same measured move as above, works perfectly to pick the bottom.
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Old May 1, 2004, 12:44am   #453
 
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Most interesting how others see the same thing but from a completely different technique/method.
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Old May 1, 2004, 1:16am   #454
 
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Hi Skim,

Thanks indeed. Your posts are very helpful.

I assume you look at the COMPX alongside ES? May I ask if you also look at other cash indexes? It seems that ES often moves with YM, but there is often divergence between ES/YM and NQ. As I do NQ, I am still trying to find out what indexed/futures to look at for indications for NQ.

Thanks indeed.
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Old May 1, 2004, 1:51am   #455
 
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I'm note sure it matters which one.... I use ES for Dow confirmation. If both tell me the same,that's good enough. I guess I could equally use the COMPX. I used to look at all 3 , but it got far too confusing. I only look at ES where/when the Dow does not give clear signals.
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