How to predict world events

This is a discussion on How to predict world events within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; One poster recently commented, 'I couldn't agree more. As you suggest, trading is an if-then business and not a guessing ...

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Old May 6, 2003, 7:30pm   #1
 
LORD JAMLA's Avatar
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How to predict world events

One poster recently commented,

'I couldn't agree more. As you suggest, trading is an if-then business and not a guessing game'

To be brutally honest, I could not DISAGREE more with what that guy has said. There are no rooms for if's and buts when you're trading. The markets take a natural course. 80% of the time, it shows the trader it's pre-destined course, hence one does not need if's nor but's. All you need is the correct form of analysis to eliminate each individual if and but , until you are left with the clear outcome.
The news is used to fit in with the market. It is secondary. That's how some folk (of which I have already proved) can predict world events. For example. I recently predicted Log would go to 120p ( a 33% rise), but turned bearish on Dow @ 8520, with a target of 8,300 which it hit. So, how could Log rise 25% on the back of a 200 point dow drop???
Well, no results were due out. I could've predicted that there would either be

a) a contract win
b) a broker upgrade


A broker upgrade came 3 days later, sending it flying to 120.75p

THIS IS WHAT WE DO. But on a much larger scale. A strong grasp of socio-political news is vital, since nothing of what we are told in those areas are true. 99% of people are being told 99% garbage 99% of the time. It's scary, but what the stock market is showing now is even scarier.

If you are a member of the 'if and but brigade', I ask you, why can you're analysis not remove these if's and but's. Why is it that you need to wait 100-200 points into a move until you're in on it. I mean we're all iffing and butting 20% of the time, that's cuz the Dow is playing hard to get, but 100% of the time?????? How often do those guys get caught on FALSE BREAKOUTS??

Seroiusly guys, the above quote is yet again one of THE GREAT TRADING MYTHS.
I'm here to break them and you should be glad I am.
I have only 3 weeks left posting on these boards till I start preparing for my summer seminars. Make the most of them.
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Old May 6, 2003, 8:17pm   #2
 
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Re: Seminars

Jamla how are prospective customers supposed to know whther your seminars any good? If you have any supporting evidence for these I might well be interested, but I need to see the evidence first before parting with any pennies.


Email me about your seminars to zen7167@zen.co.uk
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Old May 6, 2003, 8:44pm   #3
 
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I would also be interested in one of your seminars,please e-mail me: diane.mclaughlan@btinternet.com
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Old May 6, 2003, 8:55pm   #4
 
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I hope LJ contributes financially to this website for the amount of times he has gone on about his seminars and courses.
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Old May 6, 2003, 9:09pm   #5
 
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I agree. News is secondary. It is one of the things in this game that still amazes me.
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Old May 6, 2003, 10:47pm   #6
 
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Sorry, LJ. All trading is based on IF-Then. Every one has a set of conditions that they look for being true, or false. If true, then enter trade.
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Old May 6, 2003, 11:39pm   #7
 
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Quote:
'I couldn't agree more. As you suggest, trading is an if-then business and not a guessing game'

To be brutally honest, I could not DISAGREE more with what that guy has said. There are no rooms for if's and buts when you're trading.
Well i happen to agree with you that there is no room for ifs and buts in trading.

However my quotation and Chartman's statement was that that trading is to do with if-THEN. Perhaps you didn't understand what we meant or failed to read the sentence properly . OTOH perhaps you deliberately decided to misquote so that you could have a platform from which to air your own views. Each to his own.
Quote:
Seroiusly guys, the above quote is yet again one of THE GREAT TRADING MYTHS.
I'm here to break them and you should be glad I am.
I think i'm better at deciding what i should be glad about than you. I've no reason to disbelieve your various claims about your trading success, but your habit of telling people what's good for them suggests you would not be any use to me as a teacher.

Les
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Old May 7, 2003, 12:00am   #8
 
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I'd go along with that. I'm not one for preaching or teaching. Far better to present information and let others decide for themselves as to its value or relevance. When it all goes pearshaped, you only have yourself to blame. I have said in the past, ( as someone once said to me) don't take my word for it. Prove it for yourself until you know it's right, or otherwise. I would hate to think people took my ideas at face value and acted on them. It's much , much more complicated than I make out, as I'm sure most of you know.....
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Old May 7, 2003, 4:50pm   #9
 
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LORD JAMLA started this thread The thread was titled 'How to predict world events', which though I have proved on these boards I can do, no-one was prepared to comment on. Most people seem to think I am trying to advertise my seminar, which to me stems from jealousy, since all tickets have been sold, (I have many e-mails of those that I will contact for the winter ones,) and have never given ANY details whatsoever on location, price, content etc etc. It would be totally immoral for me to do so.
As for me paying the website. Well, BB maybe they should pay me? Since, I have raised near 50-60 questions in my posts which have been un-answerable by all. Yet I can answer any question anyone has to raise. My techniques are not typical, they are off the cuff, and you should thank for me for giving you insights into these and arousing debate.
You should read more carefully my posts and see what you can learn, how do I make the breathtakingly accurate predictions? what is this 'truth' I am talking about, am I being cruel or kind when I talk of brainwashed sheep???
In conclusion, Les, I cannot see your point. It seems, on the contrary, that you have not read my post carefully enough. You say clearly trading is an 'IF-THEN process. I say clearly that 80% of the time there are no IF'S in my trading and nor should there be. Plain and simple.
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Old May 7, 2003, 5:20pm   #10
 
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Quote:
You should read more carefully my posts and see what you can learn, how do I make the breathtakingly accurate predictions? what is this 'truth' I am talking about, am I being cruel or kind when I talk of brainwashed sheep???
I'm really not interested in your own opinion about yourself or your methods. Nor you telling me what i should and should not do. I have developed my own style of trading and also been taught to do this by at least one professional trader who has proved himself many times over. I still ask for his opnion nowadays when i need it because my learning is not finished

I do not seek your guidance in matters of trading. Please respect that.

My only reason for responding to you on this thread was because you chose to misquote me from another thread on this board. I have put you straight on this, but you seem to lack the insight or ability to accept it. However that really is your problem, not anyone else's.

Quote:
In conclusion, Les, I cannot see your point.
Yes, exactly - you cannot see. Well put.

Les

Last edited by Les Carlin; May 7, 2003 at 5:28pm.
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