## The Problem with Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on The Problem with Technical Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by wisefoolx I think this is semantical, essentially we are saying same thing but you are confusing cause ...

Sep 6, 2017, 9:07pm   #31

Joined Aug 2003
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx I think this is semantical, essentially we are saying same thing but you are confusing cause and effect. As far as the maths basis of charts go , which is what I am mainly concerned about. Every chart must have a y and an x axis, the dependent axis (y) depends on the independent axis (x). So every future point in time will have a corresponding price sometime in future, even when there are temporary price gaps. In maths this is the dependent variable price (y) depending on the independent (x) time, and this is the law when it comes to charts, and it is totally objective. Therefore price IS a calculation by time, every price is calculated by what time it is . These are the effects. So Whaever the cause behind the production of price , eg) what people agree upon or feel about an irrelevant issue but is may be what traders need to solve to be profitable. Repeating once again - This is a discussion purely about the objective CALCULATION of TA. Removing the y axis would seem to further the subjectivity of the chart, indeed half a chart and this to me is UNOBJECTIVE and I would be very sceptical of that.
My apologies. I misunderstood the purpose of your thread, taking "the problem with technical analysis" literally.

Your thesis appears to be based on the ability to predict future price as a result of past price. No one has ever been able to demonstrate that this can be done. And it is unlikely that anyone will ever be able to do so due to the nature of trading.

But best of luck to you.

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Sep 6, 2017, 9:38pm   #32
Joined Aug 2017
Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbphoenix My apologies. I misunderstood the purpose of your thread, taking "the problem with technical analysis" literally. Your thesis appears to be based on the ability to predict future price as a result of past price. No one has ever been able to demonstrate that this can be done. And it is unlikely that anyone will ever be able to do so due to the nature of trading. But best of luck to you.

No apology needed but you might think about not deliberately misleading people. I doubt if you even read the article properly before jumping to your own conclusions regardless of what it said:

Very simple really, we as traders are trying to forecast where future prices might be.

Where is the word predict in this ? I said " Forecast" and that is not the same and has a particular meaning in maths.

The first line reads originally in bold no less:

The problem with TA is simple, it's in its calculation, which is hardly ever objective and almost always subjective

The subject in the " thesis " as you called it, is very very clear, NO PREDICTION there. How did you missread that ? Either you must have bad eyes or you are deliberately cognitively dissonant.

So the rest of your rant is irrelevant, and I think you will need more luck then I; one for predicting prices on charts without axis no less and two for taking things so personally without justification.

Sep 6, 2017, 9:44pm   #33
Joined Nov 2016
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx No apology needed but you might think about not deliberately misleading people. I doubt if you even read the article properly before jumping to your own conclusions regardless of what it said: Very simple really, we as traders are trying to forecast where future prices might be. Where is the word predict in this ? I said " Forecast" and that is not the same and has a particular meaning in maths. The first line reads originally in bold no less: The problem with TA is simple, it's in its calculation, which is hardly ever objective and almost always subjective The subject in the " thesis " as you called it, is very very clear, NO PREDICTION there. How did you missread that ? Either you must have bad eyes or you are deliberately cognitively dissonant. So the rest of your rant is irrelevant, and I think you will need more luck then I; one for predicting prices on charts without axis no less and two for taking things so personally without justification.
A moving average is objective. You decide what it's based on, you can base it on the close of a particular timeframe, the high the low, whatever you want. It's just an average. It's an example of TA. I think there are a lot of TA indicators that are objective. That doesn't necessarily make them better forecasters

Sep 6, 2017, 10:25pm   #34

Joined Aug 2003
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx No apology needed but you might think about not deliberately misleading people. I doubt if you even read the article properly before jumping to your own conclusions regardless of what it said: Very simple really, we as traders are trying to forecast where future prices might be. Where is the word predict in this ? I said " Forecast" and that is not the same and has a particular meaning in maths.
Forecast or predict, it's immaterial. Some/many traders try to forecast/predict the course of future prices but that's not the function of technical analysis, regardless of the contents of any article.

Sep 6, 2017, 11:00pm   #35

Joined Aug 2003
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx Sounds like you need to pick a good maths textbook.
Why? Technical analysis isn't about math. Which is why small children are so much better at it than adults.

But, as I said, best of luck to you.

Sep 6, 2017, 11:01pm   #36
Joined Aug 2017
Quote:
 Originally Posted by seekingTruth16 A moving average is objective. You decide what it's based on, you can base it on the close of a particular timeframe, the high the low, whatever you want. It's just an average. It's an example of TA. I think there are a lot of TA indicators that are objective. That doesn't necessarily make them better forecasters
I already covered this :

" The problem with TA is simple, it's in its calculation, which is hardly ever objective and almost always subjective. "

You two need glasses or something ?

Anyway, true that MA and a few other indicators are objective but in my view the calculations are to simple to be of use, too slow.

I'll will be covering these soon, so do keep an eye out for it .

Sep 6, 2017, 11:04pm   #37
Joined Nov 2016
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx I already covered this : " The problem with TA is simple, it's in its calculation, which is hardly ever objective and almost always subjective. " You two need glasses or something ? Anyway, true that MA and a few other indicators are objective but in my view the calculations are to simple to be of use, too slow. I'll will be covering these soon, so do keep an eye out for it .
Sometimes when you're lost and failing and don't really understand, you hit out aggressively at people that are offering you help. You might not realise it's help, because you don't want to listen.

It's almost never necessary to be rude or aggressive and insulting to others. It usually indicates something else.

I hope it works out well for you.

Last edited by seekingTruth16; Sep 6, 2017 at 11:10pm.

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Sep 7, 2017, 12:09am   #38
Joined Aug 2017
Quote:
 Originally Posted by seekingTruth16 Sometimes when you're lost and failing and don't really understand, you hit out aggressively at people that are offering you help. You might not realise it's help, because you don't want to listen. It's almost never necessary to be rude or aggressive and insulting to others. It usually indicates something else. I hope it works out well for you.
And sometimes self entitled people use the false excuse of taking things personally when they have suffered imagined sleights.

With an attitude like that I wish you good luck, you might need it ....

Sep 7, 2017, 12:15am   #39
Joined Aug 2017
Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbphoenix Why? Technical analysis isn't about math. Which is why small children are so much better at it than adults. But, as I said, best of luck to you.

Again, you misread and misunderstand. You mean why not ! Who's refering to Technical analysis ? you are, not me.

I'm saying for the umpteenth time, price forecast is about futures prices which is a number and that is based on time, another number.

So give me one good reason why numerical forecast should not be based on numerical analysis (maths ).

At this rate a child would be better than you at maths, I think you are the one that needs the luck.

Sep 7, 2017, 1:00am   #40

Joined Aug 2003
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx Who's refering to Technical analysis ? you are, not me.
Perhaps you should not have included Technical Analysis in the title of your thread. Then I wouldn't have posted here at all.

 Sep 7, 2017, 1:23am #41 Joined Oct 2009 Why try to forecast based on numerical data of which we have no chance of understanding what it reflects? Numbers don't move markets, people do. That is the reason to drop the numbers and focus on human nature. (To answer the question in the 1st paragraph on the opening post)
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Sep 7, 2017, 2:09am   #42
Joined Aug 2017
Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbphoenix Perhaps you should not have included Technical Analysis in the title of your thread. Then I wouldn't have posted here at all.
OOOOhh gosh , you not posting here , oooo my how terrible that would be.

Sep 7, 2017, 2:15am   #43
Joined Aug 2017
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wallstreetwarrior87 Why try to forecast based on numerical data of which we have no chance of understanding what it reflects? Numbers don't move markets, people do. That is the reason to drop the numbers and focus on human nature. (To answer the question in the 1st paragraph on the opening post)
Again you keep going back to this cr*p and it will always be wrong ! Not interested in what " moves " anything.

its TA's calculation , hardly ever objective and almost always subjective which is the problem.

Reflect what ? Ghosts in your mirror , perhaps that of some long dead TA hero of yours ?

Whatever you say this will always be a truism: price forecast is about future prices which is a number and that is based on time, another number. So numerical forecast should always be based on numerical analysis (maths ) .

I can see you're a copy & paste job

Sep 7, 2017, 8:20am   #44
Joined Apr 2016
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx Not interested in what " moves " anything.
This is why you can't trade, and too terrified to even try ? So the reason you lost your shirt gambling £5-£30 a point is because TA wasn't precise to the 5th decimal place ? You truly are a mickey mouse thinker.

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Sep 7, 2017, 8:28am   #45
Joined Oct 2009
Quote:
 Originally Posted by wisefoolx Again you keep going back to this cr*p and it will always be wrong ! Not interested in what " moves " anything. its TA's calculation , hardly ever objective and almost always subjective which is the problem. Reflect what ? Ghosts in your mirror , perhaps that of some long dead TA hero of yours ? Whatever you say this will always be a truism: price forecast is about future prices which is a number and that is based on time, another number. So numerical forecast should always be based on numerical analysis (maths ) . I can see you're a copy & paste job
You is well funny

Me tinks you is a wind up merchant.

Copy and paste my as*e.

You need to tink about the markets more, not waste time with forecasting.

You will be better trying to predict

07651226785. He is great at helping those with anger issues.

G/L with whatever you are trying to achieve.

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