FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

This is a discussion on FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed" within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by foroom lluzers Although 80 % of new trends breakdown , I have opened a thread showing examples ...

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Old Jul 2, 2017, 12:47pm   #1
 
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FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Although 80 % of new trends breakdown , I have opened a thread showing examples , there is no method to consistently make money from these failures .It is difficult to define such a method , if one was defined it would be difficult psychologically to trade it.

A picture says a thousand words , if you look at any chart , 80 % of the time they chop within ranges. Every time a trend is spotted , it reverses.
Well that picture doesn't tell you anything

So let's put some definition flesh around the rotten bones of yours:

1. By "breakout" you mean?

2. By "failed" you mean?

3.by "succeeded" you mean?
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 1:04pm   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barjon View Post
Well that picture doesn't tell you anything

So let's put some definition flesh around the rotten bones of yours:

1. By "breakout" you mean?Breakout of range of two sets peaks or troughs ,forming a horizontal line , on 4 hour charts

2. By "failed" you mean?It fails to go out of the range forming 1 consolidation in the middle of 2 sets of up moves or down moves

3.by "succeeded" you mean?
By succeeded means a trend has broken out.

BTW it is easy to say wait 3 months in front of a screen to trade 2/3 trends , but it is humanely impossible to sit and do nothing.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 1:05pm   #3
 
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You're a brave and patient man John

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffer_fools_gladly
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 1:11pm   #4
 
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
By succeeded means a trend has broken out.
l:
By what? 1 point? 5 points? 2 days remaining above range high?, when it "looks" obvious after x days? What?
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 2:03pm   #5
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By what? 1 point? 5 points? 2 days remaining above range high?, when it "looks" obvious after x days? What?
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 2:33pm   #6
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .
Ok for first, but second unclear to me?

See you'd already answered the "what do you mean by break out? Same question there - by how much above your horizontal line 1 point, 5 point etc.?

Also not clear what you mean for the the "failed" definition?
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 2:57pm   #7
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Ok for first, but second unclear to me?

See you'd already answered the "what do you mean by break out? Same question there - by how much above your horizontal line 1 point, 5 point etc.?

Also not clear what you mean for the the "failed" definition?
Longs (the low +1 tick of a 30 min bar must be above a 4 hour horizontal (or diagnol resistance) line) and for short (support high must be 1 tick below 4 hr lows support line.).Diagonals are resistances /supports except sometimes they slightly tilted.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 3:01pm   #8
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .
Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Longs (the low +1 tick of a 30 min bar must be above a 4 hour horizontal (or diagnol resistance) line) and for short (support high must be 1 tick below 4 hr lows support line.).Diagonals are resistances /supports except sometimes they slightly tilted.
which is it, the close is above the 4hrly resistance line, or the low is above it
are you still at school Foroom?
your village is waiting..
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