FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

This is a discussion on FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed" within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by foroom lluzers Although 80 % of new trends breakdown , I have opened a thread showing examples ...

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Old Jul 2, 2017, 12:47pm   #1
 
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FL definitions concerning his statement "80% of breakouts fail and only 20% succeed"

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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Although 80 % of new trends breakdown , I have opened a thread showing examples , there is no method to consistently make money from these failures .It is difficult to define such a method , if one was defined it would be difficult psychologically to trade it.

A picture says a thousand words , if you look at any chart , 80 % of the time they chop within ranges. Every time a trend is spotted , it reverses.
Well that picture doesn't tell you anything

So let's put some definition flesh around the rotten bones of yours:

1. By "breakout" you mean?

2. By "failed" you mean?

3.by "succeeded" you mean?
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 1:04pm   #2
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Well that picture doesn't tell you anything

So let's put some definition flesh around the rotten bones of yours:

1. By "breakout" you mean?Breakout of range of two sets peaks or troughs ,forming a horizontal line , on 4 hour charts

2. By "failed" you mean?It fails to go out of the range forming 1 consolidation in the middle of 2 sets of up moves or down moves

3.by "succeeded" you mean?
By succeeded means a trend has broken out.

BTW it is easy to say wait 3 months in front of a screen to trade 2/3 trends , but it is humanely impossible to sit and do nothing.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 1:05pm   #3
 
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You're a brave and patient man John

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffer_fools_gladly
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 1:11pm   #4
 
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
By succeeded means a trend has broken out.
l:
By what? 1 point? 5 points? 2 days remaining above range high?, when it "looks" obvious after x days? What?
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 2:03pm   #5
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By what? 1 point? 5 points? 2 days remaining above range high?, when it "looks" obvious after x days? What?
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 2:33pm   #6
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .
Ok for first, but second unclear to me?

See you'd already answered the "what do you mean by break out? Same question there - by how much above your horizontal line 1 point, 5 point etc.?

Also not clear what you mean for the the "failed" definition?
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 2:57pm   #7
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Ok for first, but second unclear to me?

See you'd already answered the "what do you mean by break out? Same question there - by how much above your horizontal line 1 point, 5 point etc.?

Also not clear what you mean for the the "failed" definition?
Longs (the low +1 tick of a 30 min bar must be above a 4 hour horizontal (or diagnol resistance) line) and for short (support high must be 1 tick below 4 hr lows support line.).Diagonals are resistances /supports except sometimes they slightly tilted.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 3:01pm   #8
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

If one could define trends , and code same criteria for every trend , there would be a Microsoft of automated trading software.There isn't one .
Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Longs (the low +1 tick of a 30 min bar must be above a 4 hour horizontal (or diagnol resistance) line) and for short (support high must be 1 tick below 4 hr lows support line.).Diagonals are resistances /supports except sometimes they slightly tilted.
which is it, the close is above the 4hrly resistance line, or the low is above it
are you still at school Foroom?
your village is waiting..
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 3:49pm   #9
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which is it, the close is above the 4hrly resistance line, or the low is above it
are you still at school Foroom?
your village is waiting..
low has to close on close of bar , do you trade?

ftse is a low volatility index , traders call it the granma index.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 5:00pm   #10
 
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barjon started this thread I'm bed bound atm so can't post pics and I'm getting a bit lost, so let's take it in order:

A break out

Breakout of range of two sets peaks or troughs ,forming a horizontal line , on 4 hour charts

At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

That right? I presume you are just talking about a range bound instrument and not the break out to new highs (lows) in a trending instrument?

From a trading perspective have we arrived at an entry set up yet?
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 5:11pm   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barjon View Post
I'm bed bound atm so can't post pics and I'm getting a bit lost, so let's take it in order:

A break out

Breakout of range of two sets peaks or troughs ,forming a horizontal line , on 4 hour charts

At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance or a 30 min bar remaining below consolidation zones on 4 hour charts.

That right? I presume you are just talking about a range bound instrument and not the break out to new highs (lows) in a trending instrument?

From a trading perspective have we arrived at an entry set up yet?
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance , made of two sets of 4 hour peaks , if it remains above , the resistance has become support ,buy long set up.

At least one 30 min bar high closes below 4 hourly support , made of two sets of 4 hour troughs , if it remains below , the support has become resistance ,sell short set up.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 5:47pm   #12
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
At least one 30 min bar low closes above 4 hourly resistance , made of two sets of 4 hour peaks , if it remains above , the resistance has become support ,buy long set up.

At least one 30 min bar high closes below 4 hourly support , made of two sets of 4 hour troughs , if it remains below , the support has become resistance ,sell short set up.
So that's what you said defined a "successful" break out which, in turn, sets a long(short) entry? Need to be a lot more precise about entry since that 30 minute bar is of indeterminate length and could be pretty long. We would be pretty late into the game and you like to be ahead of the field.

It seems you're not defining success in terms of trading success? Rather odd, that, since trading is what we are about.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 6:14pm   #13
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So that's what you said defined a "successful" break out which, in turn, sets a long(short) entry? Need to be a lot more precise about entry since that 30 minute bar is of indeterminate length and could be pretty long. We would be pretty late into the game and you like to be ahead of the field.

It seems you're not defining success in terms of trading success? Rather odd, that, since trading is what we are about.
There are several precise set ups one can take after a breakout , i.e 30 min low close above 4 hour resistances line .

a)A 200 tick chart up channel formed above the 4 hour resistance
b)Moving average diagnol up support (all mas slanting up)
c)test and retest of resistance (a double bottom on 30 m above the 4 hour resistance)
d)fundamental drivers with breakout
e)long legged 4 hour doji (the genius's name pin bar )
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 6:42pm   #14
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
There are several precise set ups one can take after a breakout , i.e 30 min low close above 4 hour resistances line .

a)A 200 tick chart up channel formed above the 4 hour resistance
b)Moving average diagnol up support (all mas slanting up)
c)test and retest of resistance (a double bottom on 30 m above the 4 hour resistance)
d)fundamental drivers with breakout
e)long legged 4 hour doji (the genius's name pin bar )
Yes, there's always lots you can dream up and use. The question is do you and how do you determine what is "success" or "failure" from a a trading perspective (the only one that counts). 'Course you just "set and walk away" relying on your "patience" with good or bad luck when you do next decide to take a peek at it.

If you think that's a professional way to trade then I shouldn't go after any trading jobs if I were you.

As we have gone through this, what you have demonstrated is one way that you can approach the mechanics of break outs (in a limited scenario) without seeking to link that to any trading methodology or indication of how to go about taking any profit or loss. Anything to do with actual trading has been left to me to raise.

That speaks volumes to me.
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Old Jul 2, 2017, 6:47pm   #15
 
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Quote:
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Yes, there's always lots you can dream up and use. The question is do you and how do you determine what is "success" or "failure" from a a trading perspective (the only one that counts). 'Course you just "set and walk away" relying on your "patience" with good or bad luck when you do next decide to take a peek at it.

If you think that's a professional way to trade then I shouldn't go after any trading jobs if I were you.

As we have gone through this, what you have demonstrated is one way that you can approach the mechanics of break outs (in a limited scenario) without seeking to link that to any trading methodology or indication of how to go about taking any profit or loss. Anything to do with actual trading has been left to me to raise.

That speaks volumes to me.
Ps: nor does it demonstrate any reason whatsoever why you can rightly sit yourself above T2W members and write them off as know nothings, losers and goats. Epithets that have a far better home to reside in.
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