Wot Happens Next (2)

This is a discussion on Wot Happens Next (2) within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by dbphoenix Volume is an important part of technical analysis. Whether or not the demand that appeared in ...

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Old Jun 5, 2017, 3:52pm   #16
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Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
Volume is an important part of technical analysis. Whether or not the demand that appeared in the middle of May will last remains to be seen, but buying this retracement is a low-risk option. If price doesn't rally, the trade is never triggered.
How do you use vol? I don't know how I never use it. In my experience vol spikes can occur right before an upswing, right before a downswing and more often than not in the middle of nowhere. IE, price continues higher or lower despite vol. Vol doesn't seem to matter.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 4:43pm   #17
 
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"Spikes" mean only that a lot of trading is going on. If the trading is on the demand side, price will rise. If on the supply side, price will fall. The spike itself is irrelevant in terms of direction.

If you're interested, there's my Wyckoff thread: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...-original.html.

And of course there's my Trading Price thread (below).
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 4:57pm   #18
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How do you use vol? I don't know how I never use it. In my experience vol spikes can occur right before an upswing, right before a downswing and more often than not in the middle of nowhere. IE, price continues higher or lower despite vol. Vol doesn't seem to matter.
Can you show some examples of this? (the bold underlined section) to show that there is a higher probability of a continuation rather than say reversing after a volume spike?

Your last 2 sentences:

Is it the fact that price doesn't matter or volume? See, its interesting from the perspective you view it. Volume is a complex area, and means nothing without context and relationship. Spikes are a small part of it, and too much is made of this one aspect.

You dont need volume to trade, but it can add more information if you do get a decent grasp of it. We trade the price, how we come to the decision is up to the individual.

Anyway thats for another thread, Barjon has stated the idea is to use TA as a tool and see what we can get from it. Lets see where BT goes in the next few weeks.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 5:05pm   #19
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Can you show some examples of this? (the bold underlined section) to show that there is a higher probability of a continuation rather than say reversing after a volume spike?

Your last 2 sentences:

Is it the fact that price doesn't matter or volume? See, its interesting from the perspective you view it. Volume is a complex area, and means nothing without context and relationship. Spikes are a small part of it, and too much is made of this one aspect.

You dont need volume to trade, but it can add more information if you do get a decent grasp of it. We trade the price, how we come to the decision is up to the individual.

Anyway thats for another thread, Barjon has stated the idea is to use TA as a tool and see what we can get from it. Lets see where BT goes in the next few weeks.
Why you're underlining that part of my post I don't know. I think my point is players come in and out at many price points, for many many reasons, vol is useless in any prediction of future price.

The way you and other guy makes it sound like you can pick turning points off vol. That's not my experience.

Hell, I've seen price move on almost no vol, what do you think about that
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 5:36pm   #20
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Why you're underlining that part of my post I don't know. I think my point is players come in and out at many price points, for many many reasons, vol is useless in any prediction of future price.

The way you and other guy makes it sound like you can pick turning points off vol. That's not my experience.

Hell, I've seen price move on almost no vol, what do you think about that
It was only underlined only to see if there is any value in spotting a volume spike- but like you said, it can occur left, right and centre.

No, this is not easy, not at all, very complex, I dont know anyone whom says otherwise. Picking turning points? What degree of accuracy would be needed to show it had any value?

Price moving on nearly no volume = time of day/delayed volume reporting etc. Moving price to action areas with little effort. The key is to look for "out of place volume" in relation to the average "norm". But the volume has to be related to opportunity. So low volume does not really mean much without a relationship.

After all you dont want to stand in the middle of the field when there is no one there to pitch to you

The post was not to suggest this is easy, far from it, sorry if it came across that way?

This is off topic to the thread, so my last post on this. BT only from now on!
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 5:51pm   #21
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It was only underlined only to see if there is any value in spotting a volume spike- but like you said, it can occur left, right and centre.

No, this is not easy, not at all, very complex, I dont know anyone whom says otherwise. Picking turning points? What degree of accuracy would be needed to show it had any value?

Price moving on nearly no volume = time of day/delayed volume reporting etc. Moving price to action areas with little effort. The key is to look for "out of place volume" in relation to the average "norm". But the volume has to be related to opportunity. So low volume does not really mean much without a relationship.

After all you dont want to stand in the middle of the field when there is no one there to pitch to you

The post was not to suggest this is easy, far from it, sorry if it came across that way?

This is off topic to the thread, so my last post on this. BT only from now on!
I don't see how vol helps me take trades however I suspect it does matter, I just don't know how to use it.

I've looked at it a few times, it doesn't help me. I've abandoned vol altogether.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 5:56pm   #22
 
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This may not be the thread to talk about volume, but volume was provided in the chart and volume is a part of technical analysis. The mistake most people make with regard to volume is the same mistake they make with regard to "patterns": neither is a predictor of future price direction. As regards volume specifically, volume is nothing more than a measure of trading activity. It has nothing to do with price movement. Price movement is determined by the balance between demand and supply. Whether price moves up on slight volume or huge volume will depend on whether or not demand outweighs supply, not on how many trades (volume) are involved.
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Old Jun 9, 2017, 7:05am   #23
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here it is flying
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Old Jun 9, 2017, 8:20pm   #24
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Now down to 294.75 - its on its way. Only 1 unit would have been filled so limit to take profit at 290.00 and stop into 301.00.

Then watch and wait to see if volume comes in on the the other side to set a long up (subject to the correct price action to complement the volume)
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Old Jun 9, 2017, 8:36pm   #25
 
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Now down to 294.75 - its on its way. Only 1 unit would have been filled so limit to take profit at 290.00 and stop into 301.00.

Then watch and wait to see if volume comes in on the the other side to set a long up (subject to the correct price action to complement the volume)
NASDAQ falling off a cliff after FTSE close (although it's struggling back atm) may help .
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Old Jun 15, 2017, 12:53pm   #26
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Anyone in a trade yet?
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Old Jun 16, 2017, 9:59am   #27
 
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Based purely on TA off two charts without looking at anything else, this is probably a long bet for me with a SL below 2.97 in case it makes a LLow.

Limit Long Entry @ 311, SL @ 296, target 370s.

I'd be looking to take half position off around 340 and leave the remaining 50% to run.


BT is now making LLs. Currently at 288.

The 300 support has failed along with the upside expected move.

Revise LLE down to 302, SL @ 287, target area around 330s
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Old Jun 16, 2017, 11:09am   #28
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Now down to 294.75 - its on its way. Only 1 unit would have been filled so limit to take profit at 290.00 and stop into 301.00.

Then watch and wait to see if volume comes in on the the other side to set a long up (subject to the correct price action to complement the volume)
Trade 1 now complete.

Will wait for price and volume to show up in the 280 zone in the correct manner, then look to long back up against the shorters. But we need order first before pulling any trigger.
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Old Jun 16, 2017, 4:02pm   #29
 
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Trade 1 now complete.

Will wait for price and volume to show up in the 280 zone in the correct manner, then look to long back up against the shorters. But we need order first before pulling any trigger.
Nice one wallstreet
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Old Jun 16, 2017, 4:17pm   #30
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Nice one wallstreet
Danke!

Well it went ok on this occasion, next phase maybe a different story, lets see.
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