Wot Happens Next (2)

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Old Jun 4, 2017, 8:45pm   #9
 
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barjon started this thread My two pennyworth.

Whilst BT is weak I don't want to fight the market while it is trading strongly so I'm only interested in looking long here unless that changes.

If price starts moving up then the two dashed yellow levels interest me. I will try a half tester as (if) the first one goes around 312 with a stop around 302. Don't want to risk more than £100 so that gives a £10pp position. Will add if second goes and adjust stop to ensure no overall loss.

If price starts moving down or faffing about I'll assume 300 will be a bit of a pull and I'll wait for it to bounce back out of the pink rectangle and buy at around 303/4 with stop at 296.
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Old Jun 4, 2017, 9:39pm   #10
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Originally Posted by barjon View Post
My two pennyworth.

Whilst BT is weak I don't want to fight the market while it is trading strongly so I'm only interested in looking long here unless that changes.

If price starts moving up then the two dashed yellow levels interest me. I will try a half tester as (if) the first one goes around 312 with a stop around 302. Don't want to risk more than £100 so that gives a £10pp position. Will add if second goes and adjust stop to ensure no overall loss.

If price starts moving down or faffing about I'll assume 300 will be a bit of a pull and I'll wait for it to bounce back out of the pink rectangle and buy at around 303/4 with stop at 296.
Is the math right here Jon? Does BT only move in £1.00 jumps?
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Old Jun 4, 2017, 10:09pm   #11
 
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Is the math right here Jon? Does BT only move in £1.00 jumps?
Hope so, cv.

£3.12 - £3.02 = 10p x £10per p = £100

Or have I gone daft.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 12:52am   #12
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Ok here's another. It's BT which is at or approaching a possible floor (or not) to an eighteen month decline. In the face of market strength latterly, too.

At an opportunity level? If so, how might you use TA to trade it?
Actually, this looks like the stock may do the opposite of the general market - ie when it turns up it may well correspond with the general market turning over to the downside.

It is difficult to use pure TA when there is volume available to give big clues as to what is most likely to happen.

We had the chance to buy up from 315 (4 bars back) but we dropped back with no buying power. Then, we finally have 3 bars of bottom pickers - each time being met by some entity selling into the buying, resulting in an inability to hold the highs each time.

Split the order into 2 units - 1st sell unit 305 and 2nd unit 309, with a stop at 320 and a limit target at 290.

Then would look to get long if we get decent volume definition in the 280 zone, with a target back up to 330.

So I guess I am using TA on volume DNA rather than a price pattern as such. Sorry if that is slightly off topic regarding the thread.
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Thanks! The following members like this post: barjon , seekingTruth16
Old Jun 5, 2017, 3:37am   #13
 
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Volume is an important part of technical analysis. Whether or not the demand that appeared in the middle of May will last remains to be seen, but buying this retracement is a low-risk option. If price doesn't rally, the trade is never triggered.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 6:53am   #14
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My road map , that is technical anylysis says 5 tops resistance on the dailes.That is heavy resistance .I would not buy it in a million years.

I think I need patience to wait for a few months to see a better opportunity.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 8:33am   #15
 
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Originally Posted by wallstreetwarrior87 View Post
Actually, this looks like the stock may do the opposite of the general market - ie when it turns up it may well correspond with the general market turning over to the downside.

It is difficult to use pure TA when there is volume available to give big clues as to what is most likely to happen.

We had the chance to buy up from 315 (4 bars back) but we dropped back with no buying power. Then, we finally have 3 bars of bottom pickers - each time being met by some entity selling into the buying, resulting in an inability to hold the highs each time.

Split the order into 2 units - 1st sell unit 305 and 2nd unit 309, with a stop at 320 and a limit target at 290.

Then would look to get long if we get decent volume definition in the 280 zone, with a target back up to 330.

So I guess I am using TA on volume DNA rather than a price pattern as such. Sorry if that is slightly off topic regarding the thread.

Interesting perspective thanks for this.

I thought of something similar to trade the consolidation placing shorts and longs in the tighter range but overall the greater probability seems to be support holding around 297-300 having been tested twice.

On balance, based on pure TA thought a fib retrace is due as markets often over-react.
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Old Jun 5, 2017, 3:52pm   #16
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Volume is an important part of technical analysis. Whether or not the demand that appeared in the middle of May will last remains to be seen, but buying this retracement is a low-risk option. If price doesn't rally, the trade is never triggered.
How do you use vol? I don't know how I never use it. In my experience vol spikes can occur right before an upswing, right before a downswing and more often than not in the middle of nowhere. IE, price continues higher or lower despite vol. Vol doesn't seem to matter.
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