Here is why I think candlestick patterns have no value: with example

This is a discussion on Here is why I think candlestick patterns have no value: with example within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by dbphoenix I doubt that I ever advised reading Market Profile books. As to interpreting behavior on P&F ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Nov 3, 2016, 4:37pm   #33
 
4 Posts
Joined Jan 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix View Post
I doubt that I ever advised reading Market Profile books. As to interpreting behavior on P&F charts, I can't help you there. However, I've written extensively on interpreting behavior on bar charts, none of which has anything to do with this thread. The following are a start:

The Wyckoff Method

Trading Price

The Straight Line Approach

SLAyers' Notes

The latter two are long and you can skip a lot. If you've already read them, it's time to open up a journal and begin the real work. Trading Price is my attempt to consolidate what I consider to be most important into something that's easily digestible. It's chief value may lie in the fact that it's brief.
Maybe I made mistakes since it was years ago, or maybe someone else mentioned those books.
abc163 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 3, 2016, 9:22pm   #34
Joined Nov 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by 30seconds View Post
So you entered based on the shape of the candlestick (I assume the chart is 4h), but that shape just happened to appear to you because you are in UK. If you were let's say in Spain there would be 1h offset, therefore the 4h candlestick would look different (not sure how much different, but is possible to check). So you would still make that decision? If would be different I don't think you would do the same. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just asking you the question. What do you think?

I don't really have proof that candlestick patterns are worthless, but I would like to see what are the win/loss ratios of people using them. Notice that money management and time plays a big role (ex.: your entry might be really bad but after a while turns your way and you win money). Either way I would like to know if you are happy to present some stats of your trades (win/loss ratio, average profit per trade, trades per day, average trade time and similar). Also let us know if you just do TA on candlestick or you take in account something else.

Thanks
I am not based in England but I do not understand what you saying in regard. For what I know candle stick difference are based on the broker and the way you set them. Mine are set on daily start/end time 17:00 New York which is also the set up for MT4.

I am not a Steve Nison (corrected, thanks Tim) fan but I dived my candles in three parts: bear candles, bull candles and doji candles or range bar candles: if my sentiment is long and market pulls back at what I consider an important technicality I will not enter above a doji bar. (In a range I sell high and buy low, clearer on a smaller time frame).

I need to see my timing is right, my job is too anticipate the move and I need a confirmation the moved is on his way (In a trend I buy high, break out).

Otherwise how do I know where and when to enter? At a specific level with limit orders? But a bull flag can turn into nothingness.... and where do I place my protective stop? At the previous swing low? And what about RR?
With a trend bull candle in a bull flag I buy above the trend bull bar and my protective stop is placed below that swing low. (most of the time is the low of that bar)

When I take a trade I presume my setup have a 60% (if it gets to 80% the better) probability to succeed, If I am reading right I am taking the trade in the direction of the least direction and if I sit tight in the proper market condition I can make my bread.

I am pure technical trader but I keep my ears on sentiment (I only trade forex).

Said that technicality is an art form, it is just a tool to interpret the market and participate in it in a timing matter.

Finding a way that reflects our personality could be the solution, for what I am concerned there are not any secrets in trading but only skills and TA is a vast subject of interpretation, there are not absolute truth in trading unless someone is trying to sell you something.

Last edited by Fugazsy; Nov 4, 2016 at 5:24am.
Fugazsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: timsk
Old Nov 3, 2016, 10:39pm   #35
 
tokyojoe's Avatar
Joined May 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugazsy View Post
I am not based in England but I do not understand what you saying in regard. For what I know candle stick difference are based on the broker and the way you set them. Mine are set on daily start/end time 17:00 New York which is also the set up for MT4.

I am not a Steve Nison (corrected, thanks Tim) fan but I dived my candles in three parts: bear candles, bull candles and doji candles or range bar candles: if my sentiment is long and market pulls back at what I consider an important technicality I will not enter above a doji bar. (In a range I sell high and buy low, clearer on a smaller time frame).

I need to see my timing is right, my job is too anticipate the move and I need a confirmation the moved is on his way (In a trend I buy high, break out).

Otherwise how do I know where and when to enter? At a specific level with limit orders? But a bull flag can turn into nothingness.... and where do I place my protective stop? At the previous swing low? And what about RR?
With a trend bull candle in a bull flag I buy above the trend bull bar and my protective stop is placed below that swing low. (most of the time is the low of that bar)

When I take a trade I presume my setup have a 60% (if it gets to 80% the better) probability to succeed, If I reading right I am taking the trade in the direction of the least direction and if I sit tight in the proper market condition I can make my bread.

I am pure technical trader but I keep my ears on sentiment (I only trade forex).

Said that technicality is an art form, it is just a tool to interpret the market and participate in it in a timing matter.

Finding a way that reflects our personality could be the solution, for what I am concerned there are not any secrets in trading but only skills and TA is a vast subject of interpretation, there are not absolute truth in trading unless someone is trying to sell you something.
Last paragraph is key
tokyojoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Candlestick Patterns AdamW328 Stocks 0 Jul 16, 2016 4:09am
Testing the efficacy of candlestick patterns I'vereadthemall Trading Systems 0 May 6, 2014 11:12am
The illlusion of candlestick patterns nunrgguy General Trading Chat 46 Nov 18, 2009 9:07pm
Candlestick patterns with forex ed45626 Forex 3 Feb 24, 2006 11:06am
Forex Candlestick Patterns forexenator Forex 10 Aug 16, 2005 11:25pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)