Narrowgate Trading Daily Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on Narrowgate Trading Daily Technical Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; I've developed my own trading system and proprietary indicators, which I have dubbed "Proverbs 16:3" (to give honor where honor ...

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Old Sep 8, 2016, 3:05am   #1
Joined Sep 2016
Narrowgate Trading Daily Technical Analysis

I've developed my own trading system and proprietary indicators, which I have dubbed "Proverbs 16:3" (to give honor where honor is due) and plan to use this thread to document my level of success or failure. My primary interest is in the major currency pairs, which I trade daily using 15-minute charts.
Attached Thumbnails
audusdm15.png   gbpusdm15.png   spx500m15-smaller.png  

spx500m15-bigger.png  

Last edited by Will Duxon; Sep 8, 2016 at 12:19pm.
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Old Sep 8, 2016, 10:11am   #2
Joined Sep 2016
GBPUSD trade initiated and completed

Will Duxon started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Duxon View Post

My tentative plans:
Go long AUDUSD if price drops back down to the 0.7666 level without reversing the trend.

Attachment 228876

Same as above for GBPUSD if price drops to 1.3319.

Attachment 228878
The potential GBPUSD trade mentioned above developed as anticipated, as noted in the chart appearing below...

gbpusdm15-completed-trade.png

I entered @ 1.3334 rather than 1.3319 in accordance with trailing support. Though AUDUSD also climbed north, as expected, it unfortunately never came down quite far enough to trigger an entry.
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Old Sep 8, 2016, 12:15pm   #3
Joined Sep 2016
12:00 GMT Forex Market Update

Will Duxon started this thread The following represents my own personal opinion and is not meant to be prescriptive for any other tradersÖ

I donít know how long it will take to realize it, but at 0.7727 AUDUSD has run out of room to climb. Nonetheless, the pair is obviously bullish, so there is no way Iím shorting it any time soon.

EURGBP looks like it is trying to reverse from a southern to a northern trajectory, but will have to get above the 0.8563 handle to succeed in reversing the trend of its overall price range, which is still southbound.

EURJPY appears to be ready to head north once again, but has yet to complete the turn in a convincing manner, so it is not yet confirmed.

EURUSD has initiated a confirmed turn north.

GBPJPY needs to decide if it is going to turn north or keep heading south.

GBPUSD is still bullish.

USDCAD is still bearish overall, even though it is near the bottom of its typical price range and is trying to decide if it wants to take a break with a detour to the north or if it would prefer to continue south.

USDCHFís reversal south is confirmed and it looks like it wants to keep heading that way.

USDJPY is in the same boat as USDCHF, though its inclination to keep heading south is not as strong.
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Old Sep 8, 2016, 4:32pm   #4
Joined Sep 2016
S&P Futures Trade was Successful

Will Duxon started this thread I edited my first post because it looks to me like it is permanent, so I wanted to make it shorter and to the point. It used to contain an explanation for two of the charts there in which I said I would think about shorting S&P 500 futures if price climbed above the 2190 handle (see the last two Attached Thumbnails from that post).

spx500m15-trade.png

As it turned out, I needed to do more than just think about it (see above chart). After barely reaching that level, the index wanted to come right back down, reaching my take profit target earlier this morning.
Attached Thumbnails
spx500m15-bigger.png   spx500m15-smaller.png  

Last edited by Will Duxon; Sep 8, 2016 at 4:38pm.
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Old Sep 8, 2016, 5:34pm   #5
Joined Sep 2016
Just Waiting for the Right Moment

Will Duxon started this thread At 17:30 GMT I'm planning to short GBPJPY, USDCHF and USDJPY; and go long AUDUSD, EURUSD and XAUUSD.

ig-metatrader-4-terminal-9-8-2016.png

At this point I'm simply monitoring them for the optimum moment to do so.
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Old Sep 8, 2016, 6:44pm   #6
Joined Sep 2016
Long EURUSD @ 1.1255

Will Duxon started this thread Entered a long position at 18:38 GMT

eurusdm15-longposition.png
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Old Sep 9, 2016, 12:55am   #7
Joined Sep 2016
Took advantage of two opportunities

Will Duxon started this thread Of the six assets I wrote that I was watching for the opportunity to make trades (see previous posts) I only selected two (though I am in a third trade right now with AUDUSD). I was long EURUSD, which I documented at the time, and I shorted USDJPY later. I've used arrows to mark my entry and exit points on the charts below.

eurusdm15-exit.pngusdjpym15-exit.png
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Old Sep 9, 2016, 5:01am   #8
Joined Sep 2016
05:00 GMT Technical Analysis Update

Will Duxon started this thread The following represents my own personal opinion and is not meant to be prescriptive for any other tradersÖ

Yesterday I said that at 0.7727 AUDUSD had run out of room to climb, so no surprise that it pulled back. However, it dropped all the way down to 0.7634! The pair is still bullish though, so itís likely to resume an upward trajectory soon.

No change from yesterday. EURGBP looks like it is trying to reverse from a southern to a northern trajectory, but will have to get above the 0.8563 handle to succeed in reversing the trend of its overall price range, which is still southbound.

EURJPY took a trip north over the last twenty-four hours, as anticipated. Its overall price range is slightly bullish, but the pair is smack in the center of it, so it could head in either direction.

No change in EURUSDís confirmed uptrend.

GBPJPY is totally conflicted. The overall price range is bullish, but the day-to-day and hour-to-hour trends are both currently bearish.

The overall price range of GBPUSD is still bullish, but the day-to-day trend is noncommittal.

USDCAD is still bearish overall, but it looks like it wants to reverse the day-to-day trend to the north.

Even though USDCHF leaped up to 0.9737, the overall trend is still bearish.

USDJPY is still in the same boat as USDCHF.
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Old Sep 9, 2016, 9:53am   #9
Joined Sep 2016
09:30 GMT Update

Will Duxon started this thread A number of assets seem to be reversing their day-to-day trajectories:

AUDUSD, XAUUSD and SPX500 appear to be turning south, whereas GBPJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF look to be turning north.
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Old Sep 9, 2016, 5:36pm   #10
Joined Sep 2016
17:30 GMT End-of-Week Technical Analysis

Will Duxon started this thread The overall price range is still headed north, but of course, AUDUSD is down day-to-day over the last 48 hours. I currently place significant support at the 0.7493 level and overall resistance at 0.7724.

The bearish bias of EURGBPís overall price range is weakening, but the bullish day-to-day bias might be weakening as well. Consequently, Iím more inclined to wait to see if this pair rolls over rather than enter a long position now.

Everything is pointing north with EURJPY, so I entered a long position after its recent pullback to the 115.14 handle (but I might have to exit without much of a profit).

EURUSDís day-to-day trend just turned south. I currently see significant support at the 1.1156 level and major support at 1.1035. Iím also keeping in mind that the overall price range turned north three days ago.

Like EURJPY, everything associated with GBPJPY is pointing north.

GBPUSDís overall price range is bullish, but current day-to-day pressure is decidedly bearish. Right now I see significant support at 1.3186óbut itís falling. Major support is presently at 1.3105, but that level is rising

USDCAD has hit a significant zone of resistance at 1.3050, but that doesnít necessarily mean it will stop there. Presently, I see major resistance at 1.3162. Though the day-to-day push north is going strong, the overall price range is still bearish.

Again, though USDCHFís day-to-day push north is going strong, the overall price range is still bearish. However, unlike USDCAD, this pair has not yet hit what I deem to be a significant zone of resistance, which I place at 0.9810 (and rising). Nonetheless, 0.9773 represents its own level of resistance as established by price action on August 29th, September 2nd and September 5th.

USDJPYís overall price range is slightly bearish. The pair hit significant resistance at 103.04, which has since risen to 103.16 and is likely to move even higher. Obviously the bullish day-to-day sentiment has not yet weakened.

XAUUSDís day-to-day trend is headed south with a good deal of momentum, but the overall price range is still bullish.

At 2150, SPX500 has almost hit what I see as a significant level of support, which I place at 2144.87.
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Old Sep 10, 2016, 7:48pm   #11
Joined Sep 2016
Initial Plans for Next Week

Will Duxon started this thread AUDUSD is in a downtrend, but will have a hard time dropping more than another forty or so pips in my opinion, so I’m just going to sit on the sidelines for the time being.

I might go long EURGBP if it drops down somewhere between 0.8438 and 0.8451 without reversing the trend.

I will almost definitely go long if EURJPY drops a little below 115.09.

EURUSD has initiated a new day-to-day downtrend, but it was dramatic, so it would probably have to pop back up somewhere around 1.1245 before I would give serious consideration to shorting the pair.

I will almost definitely go long if GBPJPY drops a little below 136.03.

GBPUSD looks like a good pair to short if and when it pulls back to upper resistance.

USDCAD looks like a good pair to buy if and when it pulls back to support.

I might go long USDCHF anywhere between 0.9726 - 0.9745

I might go long USDJPY anywhere between 102.43 - 102.58

XAUUSD looks primed for a short position if and when it pulls back to upper resistance.

SPX500 (futures) blew through major support, so I’m sitting on the sidelines for the time being.

Last edited by Will Duxon; Sep 10, 2016 at 7:54pm.
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 12:45am   #12
Joined Sep 2016
Long EURJPY

Will Duxon started this thread I'm pretty confident in my levels, so I've set my stop loss at 114.926 because if price does not rise from here I simply shouldn't be in this trade (see first chart).

eurjpy-9-11-16-buy.pngprofit-target-hit.png

I've chosen not to be overly ambitious and set my profit target at 115.391.

The only thing is, I have to hope the JPY Machine Orders and Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index figures that are about to be released don't mess this up.

RESULT: Take Profit Target Hit at approximately 01:55 GMT (see second chart).

Last edited by Will Duxon; Sep 12, 2016 at 2:01am.
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 5:43am   #13
Joined Sep 2016
Short EURUSD / 05:30 GMT

Will Duxon started this thread This is my second trade of the week. I'm seeing a level of resistance that I trust is likely to stop the pair from rising to 1.1253, combined with a downward trajectory that makes it reasonable to anticipate price dropping to at least 1.1230.

sell-eurusd-9-11-16.pngeurusd-otherdirection.png

RESULT: I was stopped out of this trade at about 07:00 GMT so I'm going to be watching to see whether there are any additional signs that this pair might be reversing north.

After being stopped out of the trade following my shorting EURUSD, I believe I saw other indications that the pair is reversing north, so I entered a long position (see second chart), but the MT4 platform would not allow me to set my take profit target where I originally planned, so I had to place it at a level that did not meet my normal requirement of a minimum 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

RESULT: Right after I made the trade, EURUSD opted to turn around and head south as I had initially expected it to do. I originally had the right idea, but miscalculated when it would happen. When the pair was finally ready to act, it was giving me signals to the contrary. The only thing I see that I could do differently is to wait a little longer, perhaps requiring a fuller development of opposing signals, before countering my original plan.

Last edited by Will Duxon; Sep 12, 2016 at 1:53pm.
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 2:21pm   #14
Joined Sep 2016
My Analysis as the New Week Begins

Will Duxon started this thread AUDUSD pretty much bounced off support at 0.7494 just as anticipated. The jury is out however as to whether it will continue north or resume a southern trajectory.

EURGBP looks like it might be trying to initiate a major top and reverse south, but the jury is still out there too.

After heading north for only two days, EURJPY has turned south. It recently spent a couple of weeks bouncing back and forth between 112.280 and 114.067. Is it now going to do the same between 113.757 and 116.388?

EURUSD is still bearish after reversing south on Friday.

Like EURJPY, GBPJPY has reversed south after heading north for only two days.

GBPUSD remains bearish.

USDCAD remains bullish with significant momentum.

USDCHF remains bullish with weak momentum.

Like the other yen pairs, USDJPY has just turned south after two days of heading north.

XAUUSD remains decidedly bearish.

USD500 has ceased its trek to the south, at least for the time being.

I lost twice in a row with EURUSD. I'm hoping to regain at least some of my self-respect by successfully shorting GBPUSD from 1.3279 at 14:15 GMT. (UPDATE: I am off to a simply terrible start this week in that I was stopped out of this trade as well!)

gbpusdm15.png

Last edited by Will Duxon; Sep 12, 2016 at 4:26pm.
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 6:50pm   #15
Joined Sep 2016
Time for an adjustment?

Will Duxon started this thread I've experienced three losing trades in a row this week, which I find totally unacceptable, so I'm hoping this switch from fifteen-minute to five-minute charts will help me more accurately assess market conditions.

My first trade after the modifications was to go long AUDUSD:

audusdm5.pngaudusd-takeprofit.png

RESULT: I opted to take profit on this trade @ 0.7564

Last edited by Will Duxon; Sep 12, 2016 at 11:02pm.
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