Market Update

Monday Market Update: Bearish pressure mounts on US Dollar 12/10/2015

There is a growing bearish pressure on US Dollar ahead of the US Inflation report scheduled for this Thursday, October 15.

Last month’s weak NFP report and FED’s dovish outlook led major currency counterparts to gain momentum and strengthen v the greenback. Aussie claims 9th consecutive day in green while Gold is looking to advance above $1200 / oz.

USD/JPY is due a break out (see USDJPY.Daily chart) with targets around lows of 116 (monthly S3) or 123.50 (monthly r3). Ideally you want to wait for a break out from the current symmetrical triangle patter and wait for retest of support/resistance but bearing in mind that most of other major currencies are also at or close major supports and resistances, the retest may be fast or none at all.

Latest turn around in the commodity market pushed price of gold towards resistance around $1170 / oz. and current technical setup suggests a likely move above $1200 / oz. last seen back in June. Intraday support is around $1150 / oz. break and close below will negate the bullish wave.

GBP/USD is likely to continue bullish momentum and progress up towards 1.5480 – 1.5500 (monthly r1) with intraday support currently at 1.5300 (monthly PP).

The upcoming reports in this week’s economic calendar do not look too promising in favour of US Dollar with Retail Sales, CPI and Jobless Claims are looking to disappoint and prolong the long awaited hike in bank rates.

Expect higher volatility and liquidity from Wednesday onwards and don’t forget to review your account for risk management and don’t forget to set stop orders.

Tuesday Market Update: Pressure on US Dollar doesn’t seem to be fading away

Most major currencies continue last week’s momentum and gaining strength against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trades within a tight 100 pip range and breakout from the current range (green rectangle) is expected later this week. Recently announced stronger sales report from the British Retail Consortium prompts a view that the upcoming Retail Sales report, scheduled for this Thursday is going to show an increase. Should the Retail Sales report come out better than expected then this should have enough strength to push GBP/USD above 1.55. Initial targets for a new bullish wave are around 1.5650 followed by 1.58. On the other side, the first support is around 1.5350 and break below may prompt sharper movements towards 1.5150.

After three trading sessions in Red, EUR/USD recovers during today’s EU session and 1.13 should provide enough support for another bullish wave towards 1.15. There’s going to be a lot of interest and movements on EUR/USD and other EUR currency pairs as the European Central Bank is going to release Bank Rate decision (likely to stay at 0.05%) followed by ECB’s Monetary Policy Statement also on Thursday. The initial support is around 1.13 but any dovish statements from the ECB will likely push the EUR/USD lower towards 1.11 a level seen as a major support in current bullish price channel.

Monday Market Update: GBP/USD likely to find buyers 2/11/2015

GBP/USD is likely to break out from its current bearish channel and advance above 1.55 targeting 1.5580 then 1.5750.

New month brings new monthly Pivot Points for GBP/USD with the opening above monthly PP=1.5347 suggesting an advance towards R1=1.5580. Last week’s low of 1.5250 fell on the 61.8% retracement taking into calculation September’s low and October’s high.

Today’s opening gap was quickly filled and with Markit Manufacturing report is likely to be positive the pair should find enough buyers to break above 1.55.

As the monthly PP is around 1.5350, this zone should act as a decent support going towards end of this week with BoE’s Interest Rate and Inflation report due out on Thursday and US Unemployment Rate and NFP out this Friday, Nov 06.

Expect much higher volatility and movements on GBP/USD from Wednesday onwards as major market participants will be taking their decisions prior to BoE’s air time on Thursday.

Friday Update AUD/USD 20/11/2015

Friday Update AUD/USD

The Aussie gains momentum across the currency board and is set to test a key resistance around 0.7250 v the US Dollar as the trading week is coming to an end.

Since finding a decent support and preventing failing below 0.7000 v the US Dollar last week, the Aussie is likely to test the 61.8% retracement level (~0.7250), taking October’s high and November’s low into Fibo calculation.

We noticed an increased interest on AUD pairs but current Aussie buyers will be hoping to see a daily close above 0.7250 as this could potentially trigger further long positions towards the upper boundary of its current bullish channel.

Having checked the economic calendar there’s not much more this week that could negate the current bullish sentiment, which should continue during next week of trade.

RBA’s governor speech scheduled for next week should provide clues as to how market participants will see AUD/USD going for the next few weeks of trade but bear in mind Tuesday’s and Wednesday high impact news from US.

Summary:

Daily close above 0.7250 is likely to attract further buyers aiming at the upper boundary of current bullish channel ~0.75.

Daily close below 0.71 would take AUD/USD below its current bullish channel and prompt a fast paced sell offs.

As always, we encourage traders to assess their market exposure on a frequent basis and use Stop Loss to avoid unwanted disappointments.